Questions About Pitcher Development

[Sundance]

Hi everyone, I'm new to OOTP and had a few questions about player development. I've read through the sections on development and ratings in the manual, and have searched the forums, but I haven't quite found the information that I'm looking for. I'm hoping some of you guys on here can help me out a bit here. Mainly, I am trying to better understand how a player's potential works...And more specifically, I'm looking at the potential of one of my SP prospects at the major league level.

1) How much of an impact (if any) do stats have on a player's potential?
2) Do results (i.e. wins and losses) factor in at all?
3) How much of an impact do coaches have on players?

The player I'm looking at is Danny Hultzen. Drafted 2nd overall by the Mariners in 2011. Was listed as the #24 prospect in 2013. I traded for him in 2013 and called him up in 2014 to help my bullpen (25 IP over 14 games), and in 2015 (my current season, and his first full season with the team), I have him at the back end of my rotation.

Most of his numbers don't scream phenom, and are pretty much what I would expect out of a first year starter. But there is one thing he excels at -- getting results. He's posted a 20-7 record with 13 games to go in the season. He's second only to Strasburg in wins. I know that the value of a pitcher's record has decreased over the years, but still, reaching 20 wins is no small feat. The issue that I'm having is that despite posting one of the league's best records, Hultzen's potential as a SP has pretty much declined throughout the entire season. I'm just trying to get a better feel for how development works because in this situation, I would expect to see the ceiling for a 25 year old pitcher with 20 wins to be rising, not lowering.

Stat Line and Ratings (1-100, 20-80 Ovr/Pot):


Personality Ratings:


Coaching Staff:


Settings:
Pitcher Aging Speed - 1
Pitcher Dev. Speed - 1
TCR - 100
Scouting - Off

[olivertheorem]

He's sitting at 71 POT right now, so he can't have dropped far. He still looks like an elite talent, so I'm not entirely clear what your complaint is. It is also important to keep in mind that potential is just an educated guess at what a player will be in the future, so whatever his stats may be, your scout is just thinking that his ceiling, while still quite high, isn't quite as high as he used to think.

For that matter, W/L record aside, his stats are good but not great. He's only been a 2-win pitcher over the course of nearly 200 innings. I bet you $100 fake dollars that he "wins" 15 or fewer games the next season.

[Sundance]

It's not so much a complaint as it is me just trying to understanding what affects a player's development the most.

I agree that, with the exception of his record, his numbers are more or less what I would expect out of a starter in his first full year. Which is why I was curious as to if win/loss has any influence on the development of a player, or if it was something more along the lines of a re-evaluation of the player in the OSA report, natural progression, a combination of different stats, etc.

I know that the value placed on wins/losses has dropped when it comes to evaluating a pitcher, but for all intents and purposes, this is his first real year with the team, and to see his potential steadily decline (It's only been a handful of points, but it's decreased steadily) when he's having a 20 win season just strikes me as a bit odd.

I know it's a small sample size, but I would just assume that it would, at the very least, remain the same. Or even increase as the season progresses, with him suffering a bigger drop in potential next year if he struggles.

Just trying to get a better understanding of the mechanics is all

[Tyler87898]

He got 20 wins because his offense scored runs for him consistently, probably.

[injury log]

Yes, I agree with other people that your pitcher is good right now, but not great, and got a bit lucky to win 20 games (well, really you've probably just put a great team on the field, which let an average pitcher win a lot of games).

The good news is, Hultzen still appears to have some development left. While some ratings don't rise much after age 25, Control often will, and if his Control reaches its potential, you'll have a very good SP.

As for how development works in the game, that's a bit complicated, but:

- stats do not affect development - in other words, a player's ratings in Stuff/Movement/Control won't get better just because the player posts good stats. In an earlier version of OOTP (three or four years ago) they did, so you might see some people claiming they do on the forum here, but they don't (it was an exploitable feature of the game, and was backwards anyway).

- if instead you're asking about the OVR rating in the top right (the '45' in Hultzen's case), that is possibly influenced by his stats, depending on your settings in Game Setup. But the game won't be using stats like Wins; it will be using WAR or equivalent things.

- for minor leaguers, playing time will matter a bit, so don't have your star prospects on the bench. And if you want someone to remain a starting pitcher, be sure to use him in the rotation, or else he'll start focusing on his best two pitches and might, over time, become incapable of being an SP at all (takes a while for that to happen, but it will happen eventually).

- coaches and your development budget have a small effect on development, not a large one, as I understand, but I've never done any systematic tests of that. Same with player personality ratings.

- players won't develop a lot past age 25 (that is, their current ratings won't rise much further towards their potentials) except in Control and in Eye. There are occasional exceptions.

- if scouting is on, then when you see potential ratings change, that may mean the player's ceiling has changed, but it might mean that your scout recognized an error in his previous scouting report.

- most of development is down to luck. So if some of your prospects don't develop, it's very likely that nothing you did that was the cause.

[mgoetze]

Do you have scouting on? If so, at what accuracy? Are you spending more on scouting the majors than scouting the minors? If so, perhaps your scout is just coming to a better assessment.

1.5 WAR is nothing special, but congratulations on giving him such good teammates.

Now what I really want to know is... why on earth does he have a 1 year, $1.7m contract when he's not even arbitration eligible?

[RchW]

Originally Posted by mgoetze

Now what I really want to know is... why on earth does he have a 1 year, $1.7m contract when he's not even arbitration eligible?

Same here.

[goalieump413]

Originally Posted by RchW

Same here.

Because Hultzen was a Mariner's property, and it's possible the AI (or an online player) negotiated an early extension before trading him to the Padres. Otherwise, yes, he would be making the min. Either way, he'd have been under team control, so it makes no sense.

But to the original question regarding coaches...

Coaches do have an impact on player development, regardless of level (as long as Hultzen is actually playing in the minors). I notice Maldanado's coaching level is outstanding with legendary for the player handling, so there ya go. Plus, Hultzen is a bright, hard working kid, which does also impact his rate of development and his ceiling. I'm not surprised he's a 20 game winner, but with that ERA, I guess that's the advantage to pitching in the NL.

BTW, I noticed he only had 1 option year left, which is why I believe he may have been the victim of a Mariner's staff that yo-yo'd him too much and never had any patience to see if he'd live up to his potential numbers. Just an observation, because I don't know your league's makeup.

[Sundance]

Thanks for the info guys, I appreciate it.

I'm coming into this game having played Football Manager, in which player progression seems to be a bit more predictable. That is, you invest in your facilities, invest in your coaching, bring in players who can serve as good tutors to your youngsters, make sure the young guys get enough playing time, and you should see them approach their potential.

I know baseball prospects in general are far more unpredictable (I'm looking at you Matt Bush /angry Padres fan mode). I've made enough moves to have my farm system rated as the best in the bigs in my save, but I'm just trying to figure out how to give them the best chance of possibly reaching their potential (or close to it).

As for Hultzen's contract, I haven't touched it, so it's what I inherited from the Mariners. Signed prior to the 2011 season, 5 years $8.5 million.

Thanks again everyone

[Cinnamon J. Scudworth]

Originally Posted by injury log

- stats do not affect development - in other words, a player's ratings in Stuff/Movement/Control won't get better just because the player posts good stats. In an earlier version of OOTP (three or four years ago) they did, so you might see some people claiming they do on the forum here, but they don't (it was an exploitable feature of the game, and was backwards anyway).

Assuming the morale system is on, I would think that the only way stats might have a small impact on development is if the player is in a long-term morale funk about his performance.