Historical Settings--Rotation Problem

[risp2out]

Has anyone else noticed that no matter which historical year settings you choose, the game defaults to a 5-man rotation? This is problematic for historical and historical-fictional worlds. Is this logged as a bug? It's a drag to manually reset year-after-year. Other modifiers appear all right, but this is a drag.

[OldFatGuy]

Originally Posted by risp2out

Has anyone else noticed that no matter which historical year settings you choose, the game defaults to a 5-man rotation? This is problematic for historical and historical-fictional worlds. Is this logged as a bug? It's a drag to manually reset year-after-year. Other modifiers appear all right, but this is a drag.

I just now created a test, fictional league, 8 team (I just clicked on Custom League, Fictional, and then clicked "next" at each screen accepting default) until the league strategy screen and set it to be 1895, and every team in the league has a four man rotation.

(Which might not be right either, since I'm not sure when two or three man rotations were normal) But it does show that it doesn't always result in 5 man rotations.

Are you changing the year in game or at creation?? If you're changing the setting in game, then it will take some time before teams change from whatever they are now. For example, if you create a league, and every team has a 5 man rotation, and then you go to the league options page and change the strategy settings to 1895, then they won't instantly revert to 4 man rotations. Time will have to play out, and they will release/sign/move or whatever they need to do but then their roster will reflect the strategy settings. It's best to choose the year at creation like I did in this test that showed all teams with 4 man rotations.


There does appear to be an issue here though, because I just created two more quick custom games and used 1927 and 1951 as the year for settings, and both of those resulted in all teams having a 5 man rotation. Is my memory bad again or am I right in remembering that in 1927 and 1951 it was still mostly (almost exclusively) 4 men rotations??

[risp2out]

Thanks OFG. I always select starting year at creation. I've tried now with 1977 (where a 5-man rotation is arguable), 1940, and 1921. Upon checking the historical settings, I saw 5-man rotations in all of them. I tried re-selecting the settings and still a 5-man rotation was there. I can manually override that setting, of course, but upon rolling over to the next year and automatically updating the settings, the game reverts to a 5-man rotation. I don't know if it's something I'm doing, but it doesn't seem likely. I've been playing since OOTP9 and I've never seen anything like this before with historical settings.

[David Watts]

Not a bug. The game now defaults to this along with always start the highest rested. Starters will also be used in relief. Not exactly sure what year this begins. I started a league in 1901 today and it's using 4 man strict.

I love it that OOTP did this.

[risp2out]

Well, I get the principle DW, but playing in 1921 and playing out the first 5 games of the season, all teams rolled through the top 4 in their rotations, all #1s were rested and yet the game started #5s in the fifth game. I'm pretty sure that's not supposed to happen.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by risp2out

Well, I get the principle DW, but playing in 1921 and playing out the first 5 games of the season, all teams rolled through the top 4 in their rotations, all #1s were rested and yet the game started #5s in the fifth game. I'm pretty sure that's not supposed to happen.

Sim out a season and I bet the results will be much better closer to real life than what you get with a strict 4.

[risp2out]

I'll give it a shot. Thanks for your input.

[JohnHoward]

I am in the middle of a 1968 historical replay right now with real lineups and historical transactions. Many teams and managers attempted to have default four-man rotations but with rain-outs, double headers (the Cubs played six double headers in July 1968, the Phillies played 7!!!) and what were apparently real-life injuries, they often end up with 5, 6, or even 7 man rotations. It was also not unusual for the random reliever to pop up in the rotation from time-to-time. In a "fictional-historical" replay the best compromise for the 1968 season is probably a default 5-man rotation, although some teams did eventually settle into solid four-man SP groups, like the Tigers and Dodgers.

[Charlie Hough]

People should understand that a 5-man rotation has been used for almost the entire history of MLB. Yes, in the early decades, especially before 1900, it was common for one starter or only two or three to be used.

But teams typically used 5 starters from the end of the deadball era onward. If you look at actual box scores from baseball history, you will discover that nearly all teams used 5 starters, but they tended to use their top 3 more heavily. This was especially the case when facing some of the best teams in the league. Managers would use the top starters on short rest and bypass starts by the #4 and #5 starters with some regularity.

This led to a lot of people misinterpreting the statistics to mean that only 3 or 4 starters were used in a rotation. But this is disproved again and again by reviewing game-by-game lineups and box scores. You can easily see where the #4 and #5 starters were used, but their starts were skipped at times.

So a 5-man rotation is the most realistic setting for nearly all decades of baseball unless you're going back to the deadball era and earlier. Anything from the 1920's onward should probably use a 5-man rotation.

[Gil Thorp]

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

So a 5-man rotation is the most realistic setting for nearly all decades of baseball unless you're going back to the deadball era and earlier. Anything from the 1920's onward should probably use a 5-man rotation.

I don't know if I agree with this. I think teams probably carried more pitchers that could start games, but this goes back to the old definition of a relief pitcher before specialization as a starter that wasn't good enough to start.

[The Game]

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

People should understand that a 5-man rotation has been used for almost the entire history of MLB. Yes, in the early decades, especially before 1900, it was common for one starter or only two or three to be used.

But teams typically used 5 starters from the end of the deadball era onward. If you look at actual box scores from baseball history, you will discover that nearly all teams used 5 starters, but they tended to use their top 3 more heavily. This was especially the case when facing some of the best teams in the league. Managers would use the top starters on short rest and bypass starts by the #4 and #5 starters with some regularity.

This led to a lot of people misinterpreting the statistics to mean that only 3 or 4 starters were used in a rotation. But this is disproved again and again by reviewing game-by-game lineups and box scores. You can easily see where the #4 and #5 starters were used, but their starts were skipped at times.

So a 5-man rotation is the most realistic setting for nearly all decades of baseball unless you're going back to the deadball era and earlier. Anything from the 1920's onward should probably use a 5-man rotation.

1959 White Sox used a 5 man rotation to a degree. It's just that Wynn led the team in 37 GS, Pierce 33, Donovan 29, Shaw 26 & Latman 21. All but Wynn pitched in relief.
1959 Chicago White Sox Batting, Pitching, & Fielding Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com

[Charlie Hough]

Originally Posted by Gil Thorp

I don't know if I agree with this. I think teams probably carried more pitchers that could start games, but this goes back to the old definition of a relief pitcher before specialization as a starter that wasn't good enough to start.

Go back and look at the game-by-game box scores. You'll see that there were generally 5 designated starters for most of baseball history, and the #4 and #5 pitchers did not necessarily make relief appearances between starts. In fact, the one or two weakest starters on a ballclub often went sizable stretches without making an appearance in relief or out of the bullpen. I analyzed a number of different MLB teams from a random sample of seasons, and this played out pretty consistently.

Their starts in the 'rotation' were simply 'skipped' frequently, but when you look at the opponents for the games, the rest levels of the pitchers, and other factors, it starts to become obvious that the managers were handling starters based largely on who was rested and how important the game was. They weren't using rotations in the way that we think of them. But using a 5-man rotation in OOTP seems to generate very realistic pitcher usage, and it provides a better reflection of how pitchers were used, because the AI will occasionally skip the weaker starters just like real life managers did.

Also, Le Grande Orange did some great real life statistical analysis during some past testing of the game, and his findings seemed to reinforce that using a 4-man rotation is not the way to go if you want to get realistic totals of games started and a proper distribution of starts on a historical pitching staff. Real life MLB statistics, along with box scores, show strong support for the sort of starter usage and pitching staff handling that I mentioned above. Here is what he found ...

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

Some numbers which may be illustrative on that point. I took a look at the numbers for startes in MLB in 1957 and 1997. With forty years between the two, I thought it would make for a good comparison. Here's what I found.

First, the raw numbers. The number of starters for each team, listed in descending order of the number of starts made.

1957

American League

NYA (154 games, 11 starters): 28, 23, 23, 21, 20, 17, 11, 4, 3, 2, 2
CHA (155 games, 8 starters): 34, 29, 28, 26, 20, 11, 5, 2
BOS (154 games, 11 starters): 32, 30, 29, 19, 18, 9, 8, 5, 2, 1, 1
DET (154 games, 8 starters): 35, 30, 28, 27, 26, 6, 1, 1
BAL (154 games, 13 starters): 32, 30, 20, 18, 17, 15, 8, 4, 3, 3, 2, 1, 1
CLE (153 games, 13 starters): 37, 27, 22, 17, 15, 10, 7, 5, 5, 3, 2, 2, 1
KC1 (154 games, 14 starters): 23, 21, 19, 17, 13, 13, 12, 9, 7, 6, 6, 4, 2, 2
WS1 (154 games, 15 starters): 31, 30, 26, 26, 16, 9, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1

National League

MLN (155 games, 9 starters): 35, 33, 31, 18, 16, 10, 6, 5, 1
SLN (154 games, 12 starters): 27, 26, 22, 21, 18, 13, 13, 8, 3, 1, 1, 1
BRO (154 games, 11 starters)): 29, 28, 27, 17, 17, 13, 13, 7, 1, 1, 1
CIN (154 games, 12 starters): 32, 31, 28, 18, 16, 7, 6, 6, 4, 3, 2, 1
PHI (156 games, 10 starters): 33, 32, 29, 25, 19, 10, 4, 2, 1, 1
NY1 (154 games, 10 starters): 36, 30, 28, 17, 13, 12, 9, 5, 2, 2
PIT (155 games, 15 starters): 38, 31, 25, 21, 10, 8, 8, 4, 4, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
CHN (156 games, 11 starters): 33, 32, 29, 14, 14, 13, 11, 5, 2, 2, 1

1997

American League

BAL (162 games, 10 starters): 34, 33, 33, 30, 10, 9, 5, 4, 2, 2
NYA (162 games, 8 starters): 35, 32, 29, 22, 19, 15, 9, 1
DET (162 games, 12 starters): 32, 31, 27, 19, 15, 14, 10, 4, 4, 3, 2, 1
BOS (162 games, 12 starters): 33, 29, 25, 22, 18, 8, 7, 6, 6, 5, 2, 1
TOR (162 games, 10 starters): 35, 34, 31, 22, 13, 13, 8, 3, 2, 1

CLE (161 games, 14 starters): 34, 32, 21, 17, 16, 8, 6, 6, 6, 5, 4, 4, 1, 1
CHA (161 games, 11 starters): 33, 32, 31, 22, 17, 11, 6, 4, 2, 2, 1
MIL (161 games, 10 starters): 34, 32, 23, 23, 21, 8, 7, 6, 4, 3
MIN (162 games, 12 starters): 35, 26, 26, 20, 15, 15, 7, 6, 5 ,4, 2, 1
KCA (161 games, 7 starters): 34, 33, 32, 27, 21, 11, 3

SEA (162 games, 12 starters): 35, 30, 29, 18, 12, 9, 9, 9, 6, 3, 1, 1
ANA (162 games, 11 starters): 34, 32, 28, 25, 12, 9, 8, 7, 3, 2, 2
TEX (162 games, 12 starters): 32, 32, 30, 19, 14, 11, 8, 5, 5, 4, 1, 1
OAK (162 games, 13 starters): 24, 22, 19, 17, 14, 13, 12, 12, 10, 6, 6, 5, 2

National League

ATL (162 games, 8 starters): 35, 34, 33, 33, 9, 8, 6, 4
FLO (162 games, 8 starters): 33, 32, 27, 21, 19, 17, 8, 5
NYN (162 games, 11 starters): 32, 31, 30, 22, 16, 14, 6, 5, 2, 2, 2
MON (162 games, 10 starters): 32, 31, 28, 25, 22, 11, 7, 3, 2, 1
PHI (162 games, 15 starters): 35, 31, 24, 18, 14, 13, 7, 6, 4, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1,

HOU (162 games, 9 starters): 34, 34, 32, 30, 20, 8, 2, 1, 1
PIT (162 games, 7 starters): 32, 32, 32, 32, 29, 4, 1
CIN (162 games, 12 starters): 30, 27, 25, 20, 19, 17, 12, 6, 2, 2, 1, 1
SLN (162 games, 13 starters): 33, 28, 26, 23, 14, 12, 5, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2
CHN (162 games, 11 starters): 34, 25, 25, 23, 19, 13, 9, 6, 5, 2, 1

SFN (162 games, 12 starters): 32, 32, 30, 17, 11, 11, 8, 7, 6, 3, 3, 2
LAN (162 games, 8 starters): 33, 30, 29, 24, 22, 18, 5, 1
COL (162 games, 13 starters): 29, 27, 26, 18, 14, 13, 9, 7, 6, 6, 4, 2, 1
SDN (162 games, 11 starters): 30, 29, 28, 15, 13, 10, 9, 9, 8, 8, 3


Now, some statistical analysis of the above (from a non-statistican it should be noted, so keep that in mind).

First, the minimum, maximum, average, and median number of starters for each year:

           1957    1997
------------------------
Minimum     8       7
Maximum    15      15
Average    11.44   10.79
Median     11      11
St. Dev.    2.12    2.06

MLB clubs, on average, actually used fewer starting pitchers in 1997 than they did in 1957. But overall the numbers are remarkably similar.

Below shows the starters broken down by number of starts ranges, and the percentage of the total number of starting pitchers in each year who fell into each range:

      Total
Year Starters   36+  31-35  26-30  21-25  16-20  11-15   6-10   1-5
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1957   183     1.6%   8.2%  13.7%   6.0%  11.5%   9.3%  12.6%  37.2%
1997   302     0.0%  16.9%   9.6%   8.3%   7.6%  10.3%  17.9%   29.5%

So, for example, in 1957 those starting pitchers who threw between 1-5 starts amounted to 37.2% of the total number of starting pitchers that year, while in 1997 that was down to 29.5%.

Next up is the average number of starts for each starting pitcher by frequency of use by each team.

1957            2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th    10th   11th
         Most   Most   Most   Most   Most   Most   Most   Most   Most   Most   Most
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average   32.19  28.94  25.88  20.13  16.75  11.00   7.75   4.63   2.86   2.15   1.91

Minimum   23     21     19     14     10      6      1      1      1      1      1
Maximum   38     33     31     27     26     17     13      9      7      6      6


1997            2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th    10th   11th
         Most   Most   Most   Most   Most   Most   Most   Most   Most   Most   Most
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average   32.79  30.46  27.82  22.29  16.36  11.54   7.11   5.27   4.32   3.38   2.41

Minimum   24     22     19     15      9      4      1      1      1      1      1
Maximum   35     34     33     33     26     18     12     12     10       8      6

So, the most frequently used starting pitcher on each club in 1957 had a minimum of 23 starts and a maximum of 38, with the average value being 32.19 starts. In 1997, the most frequently used starter had at least 24 starts and at most 35. The average value was 32.79 starts. Overall, there is more similarity in these numbers than I would have expected.

Below is the percentage of total starts had by each stated group of most frequently used starting pitcher.

1957  Top 1  Top 2  Top 3  Top 4  Top 5  Top 6  Top 7  Top 8
------------------------------------------------------------
Avg   20.9%  39.6%  56.4%  69.4%  80.2%  87.4%  92.4%  95.4%

Min   14.9%  28.6%  40.9%  51.9%  60.4%  68.8%  76.6%  82.5%
Max   24.5%  44.5%  63.9%  77.9%  94.8%  98.7%  99.4% 100.0%


1997  Top 1  Top 2  Top 3  Top 4  Top 5  Top 6  Top 7  Top 8
------------------------------------------------------------
Avg   20.3%  39.1%  56.3%  70.0%  80.1%  87.3%  91.7%  94.7%

Min   14.8%  28.4%  40.1%  50.6%  59.3%  67.3%  74.7%  82.1%
Max   21.6%  42.6%  63.0%  83.3%  96.9%  99.4% 100.0% 100.0%

So, in 1957, the two most frequently used starters accounted for, on average, 39.6% of a club's starts, with the minimum being 28.6% and the maximum being 44.5%. In 1997, the top two most frequently used starters accounted for 39.1% of a club's starts on average, with the range running from 28.4% on the low end and 42.6% on the high end. Again, there is remarkable similarity between the two seasons.

Finally, the overall percentage of starts accounted for by each ranking of most frequently used starting pitcher.

               2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th
Year   Most   Most   Most   Most   Most   Most   Most   Most
-------------------------------------------------------------
1957   20.9%  18.7%  16.8%  13.0%  10.9%   7.1%   5.0%   3.0%
1997   20.3%  18.8%  17.2%  13.8%  10.1%   7.1%   4.4%   3.0%

The most used starter for each MLB team in 1957 accounted for, on average, 20.9% of the team's starts. In 1997, the most used starter accounted for 20.3%, on average, of his club's starts. Overall, the two years are quite similar.

Feel free to offer your comments and observations on these numbers...

LGO also did some great analysis of 1917 and 1937 compared to 1957. And here we see further support for avoiding the 4-man rotation, though we also see that the deadball era was distinct from the other decades of baseball in starter usage.

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

I went ahead and looked at the 1937 and 1917 seasons, to see what differences there were, if any, from 1957. Below are the statistical summaries comparing all three seasons.

Number of starting pitchers:

           1957    1937    1917
--------------------------------
Minimum     8       8       6
Maximum    15      17      14
Average    11.44   11.19    9.38
Median     11      10.5     9
St. Dev.    2.12    2.32    1.93

Percentage of total starting pitchers throwing the indicated number of starts:

      Total
Year Starters  41-45  36-40  31-35  26-30  21-25  16-20  11-15   6-10   1-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1957   183       --    1.6%   8.2%  13.7%   6.0%  11.5%   9.3%  12.6%  37.2%
1937   179       --     --    8.9%  10.6%  14.0%  10.1%   6.1%  14.0%  36.3%
1917   150      2.0%   6.7%   7.3%  11.3%  12.0%  10.7%  11.3%  12.7%   26.0%

Average number and range of starts thrown by each category of most frequently used starting pitcher:

        Most Used   2nd Most Used  3rd Most Used  4th Most Used  5th Most Used  6th Most Used
Year   Avg   Range    Avg   Range    Avg   Range    Avg   Range    Avg   Range    Avg   Range
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1957  32.19  23-38   28.94  21-33   25.88  19-31   20.13  14-27   16.75  10-26   11.00   6-17
1937  31.75  25-34   28.50  25-34   25.19  20-30   21.38  18-26   16.69  10-23   12.06   8-20
1917  35.25  29-44   31.69  23-42   26.56  20-33   21.13  18-27   16.56   10-23   11.81   5-18

Average percentage, and range of percentages, of starts thrown by the indicated groups of frequently starting pitchers:

1957  Top 1  Top 2  Top 3  Top 4  Top 5  Top 6  Top 7  Top 8
------------------------------------------------------------
Avg   20.9%  39.6%  56.4%  69.4%  80.2%  87.4%  92.4%  95.4%

Min   14.9%  28.6%  40.9%  51.9%  60.4%  68.8%  76.6%  82.5%
Max   24.5%  44.5%  63.9%  77.9%  94.8%  98.7%  99.4% 100.0%


1937  Top 1  Top 2  Top 3  Top 4  Top 5  Top 6  Top 7  Top 8
------------------------------------------------------------
Avg   20.5%  38.9%  55.2%  69.0%  79.8%  87.6%  92.5%  95.7%

Min   16.1%  32.3%  47.7%  59.6%  69.9%  77.8%  83.5%  88.0%
Max   22.1%  44.2%  63.6%  80.5%  90.3%  96.1%  97.4% 100.0%


1917  Top 1  Top 2  Top 3  Top 4  Top 5  Top 6  Top 7  Top 8
------------------------------------------------------------
Avg   22.6%  42.9%  60.0%  73.5%  84.2%  91.7%  96.2%  98.3%

Min   18.7%  35.1%  50.0%  63.2%  74.8%  83.2%  89.7%  95.5%
Max   28.6%  53.5%  71.4%  85.4%  95.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

The average percentage of a club's starts thrown by each ranking of most frequently used starting pitcher:

         Avg            2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th
Year    Games    Most   Most   Most   Most   Most   Most   Most   Most
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1957   154.38   20.9%  18.7%  16.8%  13.0%  10.9%   7.1%   5.0%   3.0%
1937   154.75   20.5%  18.5%  16.3%  13.8%  10.8%   7.8%   4.9%   3.2%
1917   155.88   22.6%  20.3%  17.0%  13.6%  10.6%   7.6%   4.5%    2.1%

Overall, there appears to be very few differences between 1937 and 1957. But there are definitely differences between 1917 and the other two seasons.

[Gil Thorp]

Thanks for the information Charlie. In my fictional historical leagues I'll now be looking at how starts are distributed and comparing to real MLB results and making adjustments if necessary.

[sprague]

i sort of look at pre1970 baseball mostly as using 4.5 starters. sort of on a 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5, then repeat. and the 5th starter is long relief in the middle of his game starts.
not as a 20% of the 4th starts as ootp has it, but an actual rotation spot just the 5th start misses one every 2 rounds. a little bit of micro management but the start numbers are coming quite close when i do this

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by Gil Thorp

I don't know if I agree with this. I think teams probably carried more pitchers that could start games, but this goes back to the old definition of a relief pitcher before specialization as a starter that wasn't good enough to start.

There's a research paper over at Retrosheet which corroborates what Charlie said. (The research was done using Retrosheet's extensive collection of box scores.)

I can't link to it at the moment but will do so later today.