Strasburg excitement running out

[Goody]

I admit I was caught up in the mystique and "hype" about this young phenom a couple years back. His first few starts were a lot of fun to watch, too. As expected...

But what I'm seeing now is a guy with a lot of talent that maybe shouldn't be a starter. I wanted to see him mow down the league and be the next Sandy Koufax as much as anyone who was following him. But he's not. Sandy Koufax had an unfortunate degenerative disease which made him exit early (he probably stayed way longer than he should have due to the pain).

Strasburg, I in my opinion, is just not starter material unless he dials it back a bit. Aim to be a 2.80 era guy....not strike everybody out and be the next Koufax. Your body isn't durable enough. Your go to pitches are just too hard on your body. If you can't be the 2.80 era guy with durability, then be the 3.30 era guy. Or go to the bullpen and maybe be the best reliever ever.

They are hanging on the marketing angle. To put him in the bullpen is to admit defeat and there is already too much hype and love for the guy that they want him to be something he is not.

Prove me wrong, Strasburg. I'd be elated.

[wireman]

What if he had a career ERA of 2.85?

[PotatoPeeler]

Paging Mark Prior.

[ihatenames]

I agree completely. His mechanics are not the best with the inverted w. I hope I'm wrong but I think he'll have a career arc similar to Kerry Wood (Although I think he's more talented). He'll likely have a few decent years as a started and then struggle through injuries the rest until they move him until the bullpen.

I think the Nats have been right to baby him. Unless he makes adjustments I don't think his body will hold up. I hope I'm wrong but I think the OP is right.

[The Game]

Originally Posted by ihatenames

I think the Nats have been right to baby him. Unless he makes adjustments I don't think his body will hold up. I hope I'm wrong but I think the OP is right.

I disagree with this part. "Tomorrow is never promised today" Should have let him pitch last year and try to win a WS. They may never make the post season ever again. They are Expos. I like Strasburg. in today's game 3.30 is acceptable. He is slightly over-hyped.

[PotatoPeeler]

Originally Posted by The Game

He is slightly over-hyped.

Slightly? Since the day he was drafted, the media has made it sound like he's the second coming.

[Bluenoser]

Tim Lincecum sure pitched well out of the pen last year

Just sayin

[PotatoPeeler]

Tim Lincecum also has only pitched a grand total of 13 innings out of the pen for his career. Just sayin'.

[ihatenames]

Originally Posted by The Game

I disagree with this part. "Tomorrow is never promised today" Should have let him pitch last year and try to win a WS. They may never make the post season ever again. They are Expos. I like Strasburg. in today's game 3.30 is acceptable. He is slightly over-hyped.

True, but I'd rather take the gamble to make it a perennial event than to Mark Prior the guy. There is never any guarentees but baseball is about playing the percentages. I'd rather have several years of Strasburg than one post season run.

[The Game]

Originally Posted by ihatenames

True, but I'd rather take the gamble to make it a perennial event than to Mark Prior the guy. There is never any guarentees but baseball is about playing the percentages. I'd rather have several years of Strasburg than one post season run.

Prior didnt have a problem with his elbow or shoulder to my knowledge he had problems with everything else. Still believe he was on steroids which lead to his problems.

[ihatenames]

Originally Posted by The Game

Prior didnt have a problem with his elbow or shoulder to my knowledge he had problems with everything else. Still believe he was on steroids which lead to his problems.

His shoulder is what effectively ended his career. He missed a lot of time with shoulder injuries including 3 shoulder surgeries. He also missed time with 2 elbow injuries but one of those was due to comebacker to the mound and not pitching related. The other one was never considered serious. Prior never pitched a full season again after 2003 and the playoff run.

[PotatoPeeler]

Originally Posted by ihatenames

True, but I'd rather take the gamble to make it a perennial event than to Mark Prior the guy. There is never any guarentees but baseball is about playing the percentages. I'd rather have several years of Strasburg than one post season run.

I agree and I think that's the way the Nationals are looking at it as well. It's pretty obvious that they would rather have multiple seasons of good ticket buying crowds than one season of great crowds along with a handful of sub par crowds.

As much as they like Strasburg and want to protect his arm, it's still a for-profit organization that is making good money and they want to keep it that way.

[John Madden]

Originally Posted by The Game

Prior didnt have a problem with his elbow or shoulder to my knowledge he had problems with everything else. Still believe he was on steroids which lead to his problems.

Two words: Dusty Baker

[abailey3313]

I don't know where that 3.30 ERA number came from or really even what it means as laid out in the OP. Anyway...

Strasburg had Tommy John in 2010, missed most of 2011, and then dealt with two things in 2012: being coddled on an innings limit and being a young strikeout pitcher who inherently throws a lot of pitches. The latter is one reason he should have probably been on a running pitch count versus an innings count, but that's kind of beside the point.

The injury he has today is a "mild lat strain," which is the same injury Johnny Cueto has for the Reds right now (not that that's relevant). It has nothing to do with his arm, which is what the team was aiming to protect by shutting him down last year.

This year he's been a different pitcher. He had never made it through the eighth inning prior to 2013 and he's done it twice so far, plus four seven inning outings. That's the same number he had all of last year. The training wheels or whatever you want to call them are off and, actually, he's been doing a better job of pitching to contact this year versus trying to strike everyone out (to a fault at times).

His throwing motion is stressful though, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see various injuries crop up over the years and I do think there's always going to be some lingering risk. Those concerns were pretty well-known the day he was drafted and I'm not sure a "mild lat strain" is anything worth pulling the plug over, as it were, given we're talking about a 24-year-old.

Originally Posted by PotatoPeeler

I agree and I think that's the way the Nationals are looking at it as well. It's pretty obvious that they would rather have multiple seasons of good ticket buying crowds than one season of great crowds along with a handful of sub par crowds.

As much as they like Strasburg and want to protect his arm, it's still a for-profit organization that is making good money and they want to keep it that way.

Eh, I don't know. He only pitches like 15-20 home games a year.

I tend to think ticket sales have more to do with the context of the team. The Orioles are the same way: bad team for years so no one came and now that they're competitive, they draw decent crowds (and their starting pitching stinks).

I do think there's some risk that moving him to the pen -- which I guess this thread is about -- would hurt merchandise sales and stuff like that, but that's true of every player across the league. You trade a guy, cut a guy, sign a guy, or whatever. They're all going to have some effect on the financial end, but I don't think I buy that that's the reason they're leaving him in the rotation or what have you. I think they're leaving him there because the vast majority of baseball minds believe that's where he belongs. Besides, in some ways shutting the guy down for the post-season is akin to moving him to the bullpen and that didn't have any apparent negative financial effect on the team.

Originally Posted by The Game

He is slightly over-hyped.

Originally Posted by PotatoPeeler

Slightly? Since the day he was drafted, the media has made it sound like he's the second coming.

I've never really understood what this media trumpeting kind of stuff has to do with an opinion of a player. It's like when you ask someone why they don't like Tim Tebow and they say "he's overrated." There's soooo many reasons to dislike Tebow, but hating the guy because ESPN has round-the-clock coverage of him is just misdirecting your bitterness.

[Charlie Hough]

I would trade him away and let someone else deal with the problem. If you don't have the body to withstand being a starting pitcher, regardless of your mechanics, then you're in the wrong line of work.

If I'm the Nationals, I'm not going to baby some pitcher to the point that I can't even get 6 consistent innings out of him, no matter how many tickets he sells or how much merchandise he moves. Let some other team use him to make money and deal with his constant injury issues.

I'd rather bring in a veteran pitcher and a hot prospect that might help me get into the playoffs and make a run within the next couple of years. Winning is what ultimately sells tickets and moves merchandise more than anything else, and the window of opportunity won't be open forever.

[PotatoPeeler]

Originally Posted by abailey3313

I've never really understood what this media trumpeting kind of stuff has to do with an opinion of a player. It's like when you ask someone why they don't like Tim Tebow and they say "he's overrated." There's soooo many reasons to dislike Tebow, but hating the guy because ESPN has round-the-clock coverage of him is just misdirecting your bitterness.

Don't get me wrong. I've never said I hate Strasburg. I'm a big fan of pitchers who can dominant a game. I like to root against him merely because he plays for a chief rival of the team I root for. Evan Gattis depositing one of his high fastballs into the left field seats at Nationals Park is one of my favorite moments of the season thus far.

[wireman]

Sunday's start was typical of the way Strasburg's season has gone. He was coming off his time on the DL and didn't have particularly good command of the strike zone. Even so, he's a guy with a 98 mph fastball and hugely effective breaking stuff. He gave up one single, four walks and one run in five innings. Not vintage Strasburg, but certainly a performance you would expect to give him a chance to win.

Nats batters had three key opportunities: runners on first and third, none out; runners on first and third again, none out; bases loaded, none out. They failed to score. Then when the game was over, they all piled back into the clown car and went home.

Strasburg is 3-6 with an ERA of 2.50. Do I wish he were 9-0 with an ERA of 2.50? Sure. But I think he's on track for a young pitcher who's had Tommy John. I think it's a fool's game to try to predict what kind of career any 24-year-old pitcher will have had when you look back on it. But Strasburg's still got a very, very high upside.

He's still got some things to learn about pitching. And he's kind of fussy. He seems very distracted by every little thing: It's too hot, it's too cold. The mound's too high. He put on too much linament. He got a blister on his ass. Whatever. In my opinion, he'll have to get over that.

All that having been said, I've seen all his big-league starts and a few more and, by God, the kid can pitch. There's no doubt about that.

[Déjà Bru]

Originally Posted by wireman

I think it's a fool's game to try to predict what kind of career any 24-year-old pitcher will have had when you look back on it.

Agree. Yet, I must tell you about how much the talk in this thread reminded me of Joba Chamberlain. He's three years older, and I'm not meaning to insult Strasburg by comparing the two, but I can tell you now that Joba will be judged mediocre at best. I'm hoping Strasburg will not end up the same.

[ihatenames]

Originally Posted by Déjà Bru

Agree. Yet, I must tell you about how much the talk in this thread reminded me of Joba Chamberlain. He's three years older, and I'm not meaning to insult Strasburg by comparing the two, but I can tell you now that Joba will be judged mediocre at best. I'm hoping Strasburg will not end up the same.

I don't think there is any question about Strasburg's talent. The question is can he stay healthy enought to be a healthy starting pitcher? His mechanics and history at this point lead me to say no, but if he can there is no question he has the ability to be dominating pitcher. And he's not nearly as exciting if he ultimately ends up in the bullpen. I hope I'm wrong about him as I love watching the guy throw.

[Skipaway]

Originally Posted by abailey3313

Eh, I don't know. He only pitches like 15-20 home games a year.

I tend to think ticket sales have more to do with the context of the team. The Orioles are the same way: bad team for years so no one came and now that they're competitive, they draw decent crowds (and their starting pitching stinks).

I think the ticket thing works roughly this way:

Winning does bring in the crowd, but it's not purely the winning record. It's the perception of if the team will win.

That's why surprise teams don't draw well. They aren't expected to win, and winning isn't expected to last. If the winning persists, fans would start to trickle in. Teams like the Marlins that can go all the way one year and be horrible the next will not draw fans, because fans don't know what they are going to see.

So from a ticket sales point of view, burning out a good pitcher in the short term is a horrible idea. What you want is to keep a bunch of good young players healthy over a period of time to build confidence in fans for them to come and watch these players win for them.