Someone clue me in: Don't get how pitching outcome is determined

tonezone · 04-17-2013, 04:25 PM

I had 2013 and now 2014. I love the GM aspects of the game. But there is one thing that bugs me above anything else....i have great pitchers who suck...and this simply does not happen as consistently as the game allows it to. Right for for example, i have the great Justin Verlander (best pitcher...or number 2 in the league).

He has had 8 starts and is 2-4 with a 5.60ERA.

It's mind boggling for a game that is supposed to be as real as this.

And it happens all the time with pitching.

Hitters go in slumps.

Every year Cy Young candidates dont have 8 TERRIBLE starts in a row.

Someone clue me in... please ...

Tyler87898 · 04-17-2013, 04:31 PM

How is the DEFENSE behind your pitchers? This could affect it. What's Verlander's BABIP? Also, even though some may not consider 8 starts a "small sample size," I'd like to see how he does over a full season. I've had pitchers that have a rough couple months but get themselves together and end up with fine pitching stats.

JohnHoward · 04-17-2013, 04:32 PM

It is called an "outlier". There are thousands of game universes going on right now. In almost every one of those the "Justin Verlander" in that game is pretty close to the real-life Justin Verlander. In a few games he is even better and in a few games he is worse. In a very small number of games, he stinks. You got one of those. It happens. Rarely, but it happens.

hopeful1212 · 04-17-2013, 04:32 PM

Explanation: Randomness.

People are really bad at estimating how often stuff like this happens. There are every year pitchers that have a bad start to the season that's out of line with their careers, both in OOTP and in MLB.

tonezone · 04-17-2013, 04:34 PM

BABIP is .304.

Defense ranked 4th in league... .717.

Just seems to be a trend in the game since i played last years and this years. Pitching sim doesnt seem accurate. Too many great pitchers with inflated ERA's and bad averages against. Needs to be more consistent. I get streaks. 2-month long streaks though. Not for a Cy Younger and MVP. Maybe so for 3 and 4 starters (in regards to ups and downs).

megamanmatt · 04-17-2013, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tonezone

BABIP is .304.

Defense ranked 4th in league... .717.

Just seems to be a trend in the game since i played last years and this years. Pitching sim doesnt seem accurate. Too many great pitchers with inflated ERA's and bad averages against. Needs to be more consistent. I get streaks. 2-month long streaks though. Not for a Cy Younger and MVP. Maybe so for 3 and 4 starters (in regards to ups and downs).

Johan. Santana.

Tyler87898 · 04-17-2013, 04:38 PM

What's his FIP?

Also, I bet he'll get better as the season goes on.

tonezone · 04-17-2013, 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyler87898

What's his FIP?

Also, I bet he'll get better as the season goes on.

What is FIP, mate? Fielding percentage? IF so- 0 errors.

hopeful1212 · 04-17-2013, 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tonezone

What is FIP, mate? Fielding percentage? IF so- 0 errors.

FIP == Fielding Independent Pitching

It's components are stuff that a pitcher as a lot of control over, namely BB, K, and HR. And over a large sample a pitcher's FIP tends to get close to a pitcher's ERA. The main advantage of it is that there is less randomness in it than there is in ERA, which makes it a better tool to project future ERA.

Go to his pitching stats and choose "Expanded Pitching Stats 2". Should be there.

megamanmatt · 04-17-2013, 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tonezone

What is FIP, mate? Fielding percentage? IF so- 0 errors.

No it's a pitching stat.

Questdog · 04-17-2013, 04:47 PM

I once did a study on Jack Morris and nearly every season, I could find a 10 game stretch where his ERA was over 5.00.....even in his good years...

For his career, Verlander is 13-16 with a 4.19 ERA in April....and that includes his good start this year....for 2008-2010 he was 3-8 with an ERA over 6.00 in April.....

And also, some good players in real life are turned into pedestrians by the OOTP engine.......and vice versa.....that's the way it is supposed to be, unless you are doing a replay and have the development engine turned off......

tonezone · 04-17-2013, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hopeful1212

FIP == Fielding Independent Pitching

It's components are stuff that a pitcher as a lot of control over, namely BB, K, and HR. And over a large sample a pitcher's FIP tends to get close to a pitcher's ERA. The main advantage of it is that there is less randomness in it than there is in ERA, which makes it a better tool to project future ERA.

Go to his pitching stats and choose "Expanded Pitching Stats 2". Should be there.

oh great, thanks. FIP is 3.82. I'm a baseball guy, but first i've heard of that stat. Thanks.

MizzouRah · 04-17-2013, 04:56 PM

I know Strasburg in my league (in 2026 now) was lights out for years and still has great ratings.. he just signed with another team and was 11-15 with a 4.72 ERA.

ihatenames · 04-17-2013, 05:10 PM

I'm not saying there isn't an issue but I would give it several more starts. See how he turns out over the year. Not only that but see if it continues the next year as well. I'd wager to bet he'll significantly improve.

Take a look at Verlander's career stats. One of those years doesn't look like the other, 2008. FYI he started that year after 8 starts 1-6 with 6.43 era.

Also no one would have expected Lincecum to go from a 2.74 ERA in 2011 to a 5.18 era last year 2012. He was 2-3 with 5.77 era in his first 8 starts. Also no one would have expected Roy Halladay to go from a 2.34 in 2011 to a 4.49 ERA in 2012. he now currently as 7.63 era in 2013.

So personally I wouldn't call it unrealistic just an unlikely start.

Just my 2 cents. Again, not saying it's not an issue just giving my take on it.

04-17-2013, 04:25 PM	#1
tonezone Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 29	Someone clue me in: Don't get how pitching outcome is determined I had 2013 and now 2014. I love the GM aspects of the game. But there is one thing that bugs me above anything else....i have great pitchers who suck...and this simply does not happen as consistently as the game allows it to. Right for for example, i have the great Justin Verlander (best pitcher...or number 2 in the league). He has had 8 starts and is 2-4 with a 5.60ERA. It's mind boggling for a game that is supposed to be as real as this. And it happens all the time with pitching. Hitters go in slumps. Every year Cy Young candidates dont have 8 TERRIBLE starts in a row. Someone clue me in... please ...

04-17-2013, 05:10 PM	#14
ihatenames Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Rockford Posts: 2,534	I'm not saying there isn't an issue but I would give it several more starts. See how he turns out over the year. Not only that but see if it continues the next year as well. I'd wager to bet he'll significantly improve. Take a look at Verlander's career stats. One of those years doesn't look like the other, 2008. FYI he started that year after 8 starts 1-6 with 6.43 era. Also no one would have expected Lincecum to go from a 2.74 ERA in 2011 to a 5.18 era last year 2012. He was 2-3 with 5.77 era in his first 8 starts. Also no one would have expected Roy Halladay to go from a 2.34 in 2011 to a 4.49 ERA in 2012. he now currently as 7.63 era in 2013. So personally I wouldn't call it unrealistic just an unlikely start. Just my 2 cents. Again, not saying it's not an issue just giving my take on it. __________________ New Album coming soon!

04-17-2013, 04:31 PM	#2
Tyler87898 All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 794	How is the DEFENSE behind your pitchers? This could affect it. What's Verlander's BABIP? Also, even though some may not consider 8 starts a "small sample size," I'd like to see how he does over a full season. I've had pitchers that have a rough couple months but get themselves together and end up with fine pitching stats.

04-17-2013, 04:32 PM	#3
JohnHoward All Star Reserve Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 624	It is called an "outlier". There are thousands of game universes going on right now. In almost every one of those the "Justin Verlander" in that game is pretty close to the real-life Justin Verlander. In a few games he is even better and in a few games he is worse. In a very small number of games, he stinks. You got one of those. It happens. Rarely, but it happens.

04-17-2013, 04:32 PM	#4
hopeful1212 Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 385	Explanation: Randomness. People are really bad at estimating how often stuff like this happens. There are every year pitchers that have a bad start to the season that's out of line with their careers, both in OOTP and in MLB.

04-17-2013, 04:34 PM	#5
tonezone Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 29	BABIP is .304. Defense ranked 4th in league... .717. Just seems to be a trend in the game since i played last years and this years. Pitching sim doesnt seem accurate. Too many great pitchers with inflated ERA's and bad averages against. Needs to be more consistent. I get streaks. 2-month long streaks though. Not for a Cy Younger and MVP. Maybe so for 3 and 4 starters (in regards to ups and downs).

04-17-2013, 04:38 PM	#7
Tyler87898 All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 794	What's his FIP? Also, I bet he'll get better as the season goes on.

04-17-2013, 04:47 PM	#11
Questdog Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: In a dark, damp cave where I'm training slugs to run the bases...... Posts: 16,142	I once did a study on Jack Morris and nearly every season, I could find a 10 game stretch where his ERA was over 5.00.....even in his good years... For his career, Verlander is 13-16 with a 4.19 ERA in April....and that includes his good start this year....for 2008-2010 he was 3-8 with an ERA over 6.00 in April..... And also, some good players in real life are turned into pedestrians by the OOTP engine.......and vice versa.....that's the way it is supposed to be, unless you are doing a replay and have the development engine turned off......

04-17-2013, 04:56 PM	#13
MizzouRah Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Troy, Mo Posts: 6,266	I know Strasburg in my league (in 2026 now) was lights out for years and still has great ratings.. he just signed with another team and was 11-15 with a 4.72 ERA.