Real Prospects going fwd

[Ts-Rock]

I know last year in OOTP13 more times than not the default Top Prospects (like Projar, Myers, Machado, Cole, Bradley Jr., Tavares, ect.) all fizzelled out and ended up being boardline ML bench players.

My question would be has anyone simmed ahead to see if this has been fixed this year? With PECOTA projections being used has it stabilized the top specs from sucking within 2 years?

[olivertheorem]

I would say that it depends on how you have the talent randomness, aging, and development modifiers.

The random number generator doesn't know who they are, just player ID's.

[Mister_G]

I can give you an example from my league. I'm less than 2 1/4 years in though, so I'll give you their 162 Game averages...

Jurickson Profar - .292 BA, .373 OBP, .444 SLG, 14 HR, 75 RBI, 19 SB
Wil Myers - .274 BA, .363 OBP, .452 SLG, 23 HR, 82 RBI, 11 SB
Manny Machado - .275 BA, .318 OBP, .431 SLG, 20 HR, 89 RBI, 9 SB
Jackie Bradley Jr. - .233 BA, .311 OBP, .354 SLG, 11 HR, 53 RBI, 14 SB
Oscar Taveras - .295 BA, .340 OBP, .479 SLG, 24 HR, 77 RBI, 14 SB
Gerrit Cole - Just got called up, he is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.44 WHIP in 34.2 IP

Aside from Cole who just got called up, they are all performing pretty well and have gotten better each year. Bradley hasn't played much though.

EDIT: And Billy Hamilton has 126 steals in 221 games despite a .311 OBP.

[JMDurron]

Most prospects fizzle out or become MLB bench players. I'm not sure that anything was ever "broken" there.

[Ts-Rock]

Originally Posted by olivertheorem

I would say that it depends on how you have the talent randomness, aging, and development modifiers.

The random number generator doesn't know who they are, just player ID's.

MLB quickstart from OOTP13, didn't change anything, so whatever the OOTP defaults are.

I played about 4 different quickstarts in 13 and everytime the top real life elite specs were pretty much career minor leaguers while the 2012 top draft specs were MLB All-Stars by 2014

[Ts-Rock]

Originally Posted by Mister_G

I can give you an example from my league. I'm less than 2 1/4 years in though, so I'll give you their 162 Game averages...

Jurickson Profar - .292 BA, .373 OBP, .444 SLG, 14 HR, 75 RBI, 19 SB
Wil Myers - .274 BA, .363 OBP, .452 SLG, 23 HR, 82 RBI, 11 SB
Manny Machado - .275 BA, .318 OBP, .431 SLG, 20 HR, 89 RBI, 9 SB
Jackie Bradley Jr. - .233 BA, .311 OBP, .354 SLG, 11 HR, 53 RBI, 14 SB
Oscar Taveras - .295 BA, .340 OBP, .479 SLG, 24 HR, 77 RBI, 14 SB
Gerrit Cole - Just got called up, he is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.44 WHIP in 34.2 IP

Aside from Cole who just got called up, they are all performing pretty well and have gotten better each year. Bradley hasn't played much though.

EDIT: And Billy Hamilton has 126 steals in 221 games despite a .311 OBP.

wow, that's NOTHING like my file. I play with hidden actuals and only POT ratings shown.

I would load my file that was in 2016, but I actually deleted all of my OOTP13 files except one to clear space on laptop.

[Mister_G]

Originally Posted by Ts-Rock

wow, that's NOTHING like my file. I play with hidden actuals and only POT ratings shown.

I would load my file that was in 2016, but I actually deleted all of my OOTP13 files except one to clear space on laptop.

Interesting. Once again, it's early but in my sim Profar and Taveras look like superstars, Myers an All-Star, Machado a solid starter, Bradley looks like he may not make it (though he's been hit with 34 weeks worth of injuries in 2 1/4 years) and it may be too early to tell with Cole.

[Ts-Rock]

Originally Posted by Mister_G

Interesting. Once again, it's early but in my sim Profar and Taveras look like superstars, Myers an All-Star, Machado a solid starter, Bradley looks like he may not make it (though he's been hit with 34 weeks worth of injuries in 2 1/4 years) and it may be too early to tell with Cole.

I will note that I did use the "end of season" add-on and all the specs were really, really good! In that one Tavares and Cole were beast! But that add-on had a major injury bug! I played 2.5 seasons and didn't have a single DL stint despite me jacking up the injury setting to the highest level. At the time of my quiting that lg i only had 5 DL in 2.5 seasons including all 6 of my minor leagues

[injury log]

Originally Posted by Ts-Rock

My question would be has anyone simmed ahead to see if this has been fixed this year?

You might care to look at research into the success rate of top prospects before suggesting anything needs to be 'fixed' in OOTP. If anything, prospects are too stable in OOTP on default settings.

[Ts-Rock]

Originally Posted by injury log

You might care to look at research into the success rate of top prospects before suggesting anything needs to be 'fixed' in OOTP. If anything, prospects are too stable in OOTP on default settings.

I thought I saw a previous post about this last year (did a search, couldn't find it), hence why I even brought it up. I was merely referring to the REAL specs in ootp13 mlb quick start seemingly dying within a year or two, not the overall success rate of top specs. But like I mentioned in a later post I saw plenty of top rated fictional specs make it within a year or two of their drafts.

By no means do I think the specs/player development is broken.

[turkeybird86]

Jay Bruce was the #1 prospect in 2008. Hasn't exactly lived up to the hype. Still pretty young, though.