2020/2024/2028 MLB Expanion Cities. Choose for me!

[t-bone shuffle]

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

They could dislike it all they want. Seeing as both those cities are well outside of the Astros' and Rangers' defined exclusive operating territories, a (future) MLB is free to set up shop in either place. (They would have to compensate any minor league teams displaced from those cities, however.)

I think we both know it's a lot more complicated than that.

Both teams have spent years and years, along with huge sums of money to expand and promote their brand around the state. The Astros in particular (at least until the last few years) have been a consistent presence on both radio and tv in central and south Texas for decades.

You don't just walk away from all of that simply because MLB says so.

[Certain Valor]

Originally Posted by t-bone shuffle

I think we both know it's a lot more complicated than that.

Both teams have spent years and years, along with huge sums of money to expand and promote their brand around the state. The Astros in particular (at least until the last few years) have been a consistent presence on both radio and tv in central and south Texas for decades.

You don't just walk away from all of that simply because MLB says so.

The Rangers have a much greater claim to greater Austin than Houston, I cannot speak for San Antonio.

In any event, Dallas, Houston and Austin are among the fastest growing areas of the country and are the three fastest growing median income areas of the country. If this trend were to continue to its likely point through 2020, there would be almost no concern about a third team in the area from anyone involved.

[t-bone shuffle]

Originally Posted by Certain Valor

I'm not sure that Dallas and Houston would fight any harder than say Washington or Baltimore or Atlanta might to keep a team out of Charlotte, because those fan bases (Atlanta especially) trend pretty far from their home turf in that regard.

Strongly disagree, see my note to LGO. The whole dynamic is not the same. Trust me it would be war between MLB and the Rangers/Astros.

Originally Posted by Certain Valor

Austin and San Antonio wouldn't have to be a package deal in 2020 (they might now), because population wise they will both be in the top ten by that point (San Antonio already is). The only question there is really with media market size, but with places like Milwaukee and Cleveland going the other direction that's not necessarily a concern for me in the sense of "realism".

The problem also with relying on SA/Austin as a singular market is that while you can get from South Austin to San Antonio in an hour when there is no traffic, to make a 7:00 PM start on a weekday you'd basically have to take the day off, because there is no way you're going to beat rush hour traffic anywhere north of that and get there on time. Unless they'd be the Cubs and have a bazillion day games.

Any chance of this working would rely on a park built between San Antonio and Austin, meaning hopefully, less than an hour commute for each market. SA/Austin would make for a very meaningful media market, though the overall economics of the two cities are vastly different (have a look at median income for each). San Antonio would have to change vastly, from an economic standpoint, to become a city capable of supporting an MLB franchise on it's own. Add Austin to the mix and you have about the perfect candidate, except for that pesky two other teams less than 200 miles away thing.

Originally Posted by Certain Valor

I also disagree with you about Vegas (I think a team will be there eventually because I think gambling will spread nationally, not contract and is eventually just going to become accepted). Will it by 2020? Maybe not. By 2028 is more likely, though.

I hope you're right and I'm wrong, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Great discussion regardless. Good luck with it.

[Certain Valor]

Originally Posted by t-bone shuffle

Strongly disagree, see my note to LGO. The whole dynamic is not the same. Trust me it would be war between MLB and the Rangers/Astros.

Any chance of this working would rely on a park built between San Antonio and Austin, meaning hopefully, less than an hour commute for each market. SA/Austin would make for a very meaningful media market, though the overall economics of the two cities are vastly different (have a look at median income for each). San Antonio would have to change vastly, from an economic standpoint, to become a city capable of supporting an MLB franchise on it's own. Add Austin to the mix and you have about the perfect candidate, except for that pesky two other teams less than 200 miles away thing.



I hope you're right and I'm wrong, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Great discussion regardless. Good luck with it.

I think you're more likely to see an NFL team in San Antonio and an MLS team in Austin before an MLB team in either, so in that regard we agree.

A team in between San Antonio/Austin wouldn't work because your two 'hubs' are New Braunfels and San Marcos, and it would simply be too difficult to assume people are going to drive an hour after work to fill a stadium in the middle of no where 81 times per year. Weekend games would be a little better, but no one is driving from Austin south an hour or San Antonio north an hour to see a Wednesday evening baseball game.

It'd have to be in one city or the other in my opinion, for it to work. I think also when you look at the modern trend of stadiums they've mostly been urban for this reason.

I think in 2020, we can also assume that places like Austin-San Antonio, San Jose-LA, etc. might be closer to or already have high speed light rail, which could solve a lot of the problems we're talking about here, so who knows.

Definitely a good discussion. Thanks!

[t-bone shuffle]

Originally Posted by Certain Valor

The Rangers have a much greater claim to greater Austin than Houston, I cannot speak for San Antonio.

In any event, Dallas, Houston and Austin are among the fastest growing areas of the country and are the three fastest growing median income areas of the country. If this trend were to continue to its likely point through 2020, there would be almost no concern about a third team in the area from anyone involved.

Hmmm......You and I must be discussing different ownership groups. The people I know in both the Dallas and Houston groups would never simply walk away from the revenue generated in the Central Texas market just because their own base markets are growing rapidly. Neither bought the franchise in question with the idea that it's economic growth and wellbeing would rely solely on the welfare of it's specific local economy. The value of both franchises is partially reliant upon the revenues generated in other parts of the state, which are, as you say, doing very well economically at the current time.

It's all about the $$, like it or not. And the businessmen who purchased and own/operate these two franchises would not relinquish their current domination of these revenues without a serious skirmish or some type of compensation in the end.

[BoofBonser26]

Originally Posted by t-bone shuffle

It's all about the $$, like it or not. And the businessmen who purchased and own/operate these two franchises would not relinquish their current domination of these revenues without a serious skirmish or some type of compensation in the end.

But this is true for any relocation/expansion anywhere, is it not? As long as the price to appease the incumbent owner is low enough for MLB, they'll pay. I mean, the Orioles raised a stink about Washington and that still happened.

[t-bone shuffle]

Originally Posted by Certain Valor

I think you're more likely to see an NFL team in San Antonio and an MLS team in Austin before an MLB team in either, so in that regard we agree.

A team in between San Antonio/Austin wouldn't work because your two 'hubs' are New Braunfels and San Marcos, and it would simply be too difficult to assume people are going to drive an hour after work to fill a stadium in the middle of no where 81 times per year. Weekend games would be a little better, but no one is driving from Austin south an hour or San Antonio north an hour to see a Wednesday evening baseball game.

It'd have to be in one city or the other in my opinion, for it to work. I think also when you look at the modern trend of stadiums they've mostly been urban for this reason.

I think in 2020, we can also assume that places like Austin-San Antonio, San Jose-LA, etc. might be closer to or already have high speed light rail, which could solve a lot of the problems we're talking about here, so who knows.

Definitely a good discussion. Thanks!

In the end, I pretty much agree with everything you say here, and to some extent we've gotten away from your original topic/request. If we eliminate the obvious obstacles, the SA/Austin market makes perfect sense for an OOTP expansion team for the economical reasons needed. It would certainly rank in your top six options and from my perspective the top three.

[t-bone shuffle]

Originally Posted by BoofBonser26

But this is true for any relocation/expansion anywhere, is it not? As long as the price to appease the incumbent owner is low enough for MLB, they'll pay. I mean, the Orioles raised a stink about Washington and that still happened.

I think that there are similarities but that the situations are not exactly the same. And I honestly don't know enough about the market(s) and their histories regarding the franchises/ownership groups to really make a comment.

I do know about the situation in Texas and am more than certain that an attempt to put an MLB franchise into Central Texas would result in carnage. It should also be said that I don't think it's even a consideration at this time, both at the MLB level or the local (SA/Austin) levels. So mostly we're arguing a ghost of a scenario.

[DreamTeams]

1) Austin
2) Portland
3) San Antonio
4) Oklahoma City
5) Nashville
6) Las Vegas

[t-bone shuffle]

After all the discussion, I owe you a proper response to your question. So, here goes, in order of preference, with notes. The choices are based upon market factors (population, media) and the overall feel for an MLB "fit". I've purposely ignored the obvious real stumbling blocks such as the one's discussed previously.

Also, I should note that I don't believe that MLB has any intention of expanding within the foreseeable future. A few years back, I believed that either contraction, or franchise movement were quite likely, but I don't believe this either anymore. From what I can gather (various sources), even the franchises that appear to be "struggling/failing/unsuccessful" (AZ, Mia, Tampa) are not really money losing propositions as a whole (despite what they'd have you believe). The real issue for MLB is market size/revenue potential discrepancy and what to do about it. But these are different concerns for a different post.

1. Charlotte, NC - to me, the easy # 1. While it might not have overwhelming market factors, it has great financial infrastructure (corporate), already has an NFL team (which is a factor) and is a forward trending market, which MLB would be looking for.

2. Nashville, TN - an easy # 2, sort of a Charlotte light. They both have everything but great market factors, which each overcome with other various positive factors.

3. Montreal, QC - the market size here cannot be overlooked. The Expos died because Loria wanted them to. Montreal is a much bigger market than any of the other options on your list, has a great baseball tradition, and IRL if they'd had a decent facility, the Expos would still be there.

4. Austin/San Antonio - the two combined would be a bigger population and media market than many existing MLB franchises, which is about all that's needed for your purposes.

5. Orlando, FL - again, a much bigger/better market than many of the options on your list. IRL it'd never happen because of Tampa, though I could see the Rays move there at some point.

6. Las Vegas, NV - if weren't for the whole gambling thing, there would already be franchises there, but of course, if it weren't for the whole gambling thing, there wouldn't be anyone living there to support Major League Baseball, so in a fictional OOTP world, we close our eyes to the potential ill's of having pro ballplayers living in an environment where they could bet on their own performance.

- Places like OKC, Omaha, Buffalo, Albuquerque, Columbus, New Orleans and Hamilton will never have MLB franchises. That is unless North American economics change completely, which we'd all hope is very, very unlikely.

- Portland and Vancouver are intriguing and certainly would hold the 7/8 spots, but each fail to make the top 6 for their own, specific reasons.

- Mexico might have been an option once, but those days are long, long gone, and really not even worth considering/discussing. In this case, it's impossible to ignore the "realities" IMHO.

[hfield007]

1. San Antonio
2. Vancouver
3. Las Vegas
4. Portland
5. Charlotte
6. Mexico City
7. Nashville
8. Oklahoma City
9. Buffalo
10. Austin
11. Albuquerque
12. Omaha
13. New Orleans
14. Columbus
15. Hamilton