Career-ending injury sucks, but HoFer or not?

[SkyeWalker]

Some background here. I started this fictional league in 1995 and simmed till 2012 to create some history for the league before taking over as the Baltimore Blackwings. The 2 players in question, Guy Peterson and Mark Powlett, were already on my team and excelling at that time. Fast forward a few years and I was in the 2020 season when BOTH of them suffered career-ending injuries within months of each other! I threw a few things around but ultimately took it as a challenge to see if I can retain my division title for the 9th year running. Both Peterson and Powlett were on-track for bona-fide HoF careers before injury struck and put their candidacy into doubt. In my opinion, they've done enough to make it anyway but then they were stalwarts on my team for years so I may be biased. What do you guys think?





Peterson is the more tragic case here with an amazing career ended after 11 seasons. A real shame as he was on pace to threaten the career wins and strikeouts record if he stay healthy and produced for another half decade. Given his age (32) and superb track record of success, who would bet against him? For the sabermetricians, his FIP may be his most impressive stat of all. From his first full season in 2010 to his last in 2020, he has NEVER posted a FIP above 3.01! That is just an incredible stretch of dominance and its reflected in his WAR (top 6 from 2010-2018, streak ended due to injury in 2019. His career stats are actually ridiculously similar (and even slightly better) as the great Sandy Koufax in real life, although he cannot match the 3 Cy Young awards and 4 World Series titles. Have a look:

Guy Peterson: 172-90, 2.82 ERA 2376.0 IP, 122 HR, 555 BB, 2331 K, 151 ERA+
Sandy Koufax: 165-87, 2.76 ERA, 2324.1 IP, 204 HR, 817 BB, 2396 K, 131 ERA+

And here is the comparison between Peterson and another (manually inducted) Hall-of-Famer from my league Julian Delgado. Delgado is clearly the better pitcher though with his slightly superior stats but much longer list of accomplishments. He was a 3-time Cy Young award winner and led the league in WAR his first 6 seasons in the league! Unfortunately, he was already 28 when the league started so he didn't get to build up the quantitative stats that would have made him the best pitcher in the history of the league. Still, it's a pretty close comparison.

Guy Peterson: 172-90, 2.82 ERA 2376.0 IP, 122 HR, 555 BB, 2331 K, 151 ERA+
Julian Delgado: 175-90, 2.57 ERA, 2386.1 IP, 130 HR, 512 BB, 2392 K, 158 ERA+

Peterson was a clear top-3 pitcher in the game during the entire span of his career and should definitely have won more Cy Youngs and All-Star appearances if AI award voting isn't ******ed. He led the league in ERA/WHIP twice and WAR 3 times. With a fellow top pitcher off-form in 2020, he was on pace for a Triple Crown campaign (and obviously Cy Young) before injury killed his career. His 2.818 career ERA is second best amongst all retired starting pitchers! If that's not all, he was also clutch in the postseason, going 10-4 in 24 starts with a 2.28 ERA while serving as the ace on the staff of 2 World Series teams. Injury robbed him from going down as possibly the best pitcher in league history, but I think he makes it as a Hall-of-Famer anyway.






Mark Powlett's case for the Hall-of-Fame is very different from that of Peterson's. Powlett's case is very much based on the quantitative stats he has amassed during his 17-year career. He hit some important milestones in his past couple of years before his career-ending injury, including 200 wins (220), 3000 IP (3365.0) and 3000 strikeouts (3037). That puts him 4th, 5th and 4th in those 3 categories respectively and all the guys ahead of him on those lists are already in the Hall-of-Fame. He may never have been THE elite pitcher in the game during his career, but he did have 6 consecutive seasons from 2005 to 2011 ranked top 5 in WAR in the National League. Unfortunately, he was never as effective again after I took over the team. Still, he managed to remain an effective #2 or #3 starter for many years and continued to pad his impressive stat totals. Despite his problems with the long ball in the latter years of his career, Powlett is undoubtedly one of the best control pitchers ever, leading the league in K/BB 5 different times! Initially I was skeptical about his case looking just at this numbers compared to pitchers in the real-life Hall-of-Fame. However after looking at the league leaderboards, I realized that those standards just aren't realistic to achieve anymore. My league is run with modern-day settings and we just don't see 300-win pitchers anymore due to the reduced workload and 5-man rotations. Taking a look at the pitchers already inducted into the HoF in my league, Powlett actually compares favorably to some of them.



Powlett is 3rd in career VORP and 4th in career WAR among retired pitchers behind Roberto Garcia, Dave Pate and Julian Delgado for WAR. Don't hold his measly 3 All-Star appearances against him either; AI selections are extremely questionable. Roberto Garcia, the best pitcher in league history, managed just 6 appearances while fellow HoFer Pete Dickson made just 1! Besides, Powlett seems to have a habit of taking a few months to get going. He routinely maintains an ERA in the 4.00s at the All-Star break before heating up during the home stretch of the season. Considering that there are only about 3 pitchers with better quantitative stats than he has, I would say Powlett makes the cut as well.


Also just for fun, here are a couple of HoF-bound pitchers that debuted around the same time as Guy Peterson

Arlen Cruz (2006, 38): 192-79, 404 GS, 2.44 ERA, 2416.2 IP, 117 HR, 534 BB, 2528 K, 176 ERA+
Alberto Ramos (2008, 33): 195-102, 408 GS, 2.85 ERA, 2629.2 IP, 206 HR, 495 BB, 2609 K, 148 ERA+
Guy Peterson (2009, 32): 172-90, 354 GS, 2.82 ERA 2376.0 IP, 122 HR, 555 BB, 2331 K, 151 ERA+

Arlen Cruz has been the most dominant when he is on the mound, unfortunately, his low stamina means he averages just under 6 innings per start during his career. Ramos has the strongest case for being the best pitcher in the league the past dozen years, including an incredible 25-2 season back in 2010. However, Peterson has been more consistent year-to-year and was a year younger. It would have been a superb race between Ramos and Peterson against each other and Roberto Garcia's many league records.

[hfield007]

I'd vote in Peterson based on his 10 years of clear dominance at the tail end of his career.

A very close no on the second pitcher though.

[rudel.dietrich]

Originally Posted by hfield007

I'd vote in Peterson based on his 10 years of clear dominance at the tail end of his career.

A very close no on the second pitcher though.

"

I cannot add much more than this. Peterson had a better career than Sandy Koufax and pitched and pitched 50 more innings.
His ERA+ is simply stunning and he had multiple very high impact seasons.

[Tyler87898]

I agree with hfield.

[The Game]

Originally Posted by hfield007

I'd vote in Peterson based on his 10 years of clear dominance at the tail end of his career.

A very close no on the second pitcher though.

Yes for both. The 2nd guy has 3000 k Automatic HOF, neither 1st ballot.

[dynaboyj]

Me, I'm just sad that two people I liked in your dynasty report (which hasn't been updated in months) both got career-ending injuries. Glad you could sort it out.

I've always felt bad for great players in any sport who have some complication and are forced to stop playing. Peterson should easily be in the Hall of Fame, while it appears that Mark Powlett's injury was...retiring. After 17 years. I'd be less lenient to guys that played a full career and then retired, although I won't give any actual advice concerning Powlett.

[Cryomaniac]

Peterson yes, easily. Powlett, leaning no, but very close.

[VanillaGorilla]

I am going to be the contrarian, here, and say that "The Rat" is the HOFer and Peterson is not.

We don't have all your league stats and history, so I am basing this on how I would support a player in 2013 coming on the ballot. 3000 strikeouts is a HOF career, for me, in this period, period. So, Powlett is in.

I think you are stretching the comparison to Koufax, and blaming "******ed" AI voting for him not getting more AS games and CYAs. We don't see the winners of the CYAs that were "******ed", we just have your say so.

I see 6 certain AS years for Peterson, 2013-2018. You have to put up AS first half of seasons to get to the AS game. That means you have to pitch like an All Star in the first half, and in order to pitch like an All Star, you need to actually pitch. These six seasons are the only ones that he clearly did that, based on the information you provide.

The difference between Peterson and Koufax is that Koufax was peaking when his career ended. His last 2 seasons, and 3 of his last 4, he pitched 300+ innings. Peterson, on the other hand, shows signs of cumulative injury beginning to take their toll, as his IP has been trending downward since his 2016 season. The career ender for him didn't exactly come out of the blue, when you look at his stat sheet. Koufax's case is very different.

You can make the case that Koufax still had extraordinary full seasons left in him when he was forced to hang up the spikes. It's wishful thinking to say the same of Peterson. Had he continue to pitch, his rate stats would not have been as good as they were previously, and to project him for another 80 career wins or 700 strikeouts to get into the Hall on career totals is based on even more wishful thinking.

[NYY #23]

I'd go with Peterson yes, Powlett very close, but no.

[SkyeWalker]

Originally Posted by dynaboyj

Me, I'm just sad that two people I liked in your dynasty report (which hasn't been updated in months) both got career-ending injuries. Glad you could sort it out.

I've always felt bad for great players in any sport who have some complication and are forced to stop playing. Peterson should easily be in the Hall of Fame, while it appears that Mark Powlett's injury was...retiring. After 17 years. I'd be less lenient to guys that played a full career and then retired, although I won't give any actual advice concerning Powlett.

I'm glad that you were a reader of my dynasty report, but life got busy and I just couldn't keep up with writing anymore. Still enjoying playing out this dynasty though. I have absolutely no idea why Powlett's injury was retiring. Don't recall seeing such an end to a career in any of my dynasties before.

Seems like Peterson is a consensus choice which most are leaning towards no for Powlett. While his stats don't make a great case for the real-world HoF, I thought he should be in as he was one of few pitchers in my league that combined quality and longevity. Quantitatively, there has been only 2 pitchers in league history who has been better than him. That has to count for something doesn't it?

[SkyeWalker]

Originally Posted by VanillaGorilla

I am going to be the contrarian, here, and say that "The Rat" is the HOFer and Peterson is not.

We don't have all your league stats and history, so I am basing this on how I would support a player in 2013 coming on the ballot. 3000 strikeouts is a HOF career, for me, in this period, period. So, Powlett is in.

I think you are stretching the comparison to Koufax, and blaming "******ed" AI voting for him not getting more AS games and CYAs. We don't see the winners of the CYAs that were "******ed", we just have your say so.

I see 6 certain AS years for Peterson, 2013-2018. You have to put up AS first half of seasons to get to the AS game. That means you have to pitch like an All Star in the first half, and in order to pitch like an All Star, you need to actually pitch. These six seasons are the only ones that he clearly did that, based on the information you provide.

The difference between Peterson and Koufax is that Koufax was peaking when his career ended. His last 2 seasons, and 3 of his last 4, he pitched 300+ innings. Peterson, on the other hand, shows signs of cumulative injury beginning to take their toll, as his IP has been trending downward since his 2016 season. The career ender for him didn't exactly come out of the blue, when you look at his stat sheet. Koufax's case is very different.

You can make the case that Koufax still had extraordinary full seasons left in him when he was forced to hang up the spikes. It's wishful thinking to say the same of Peterson. Had he continue to pitch, his rate stats would not have been as good as they were previously, and to project him for another 80 career wins or 700 strikeouts to get into the Hall on career totals is based on even more wishful thinking.

Peterson was on-pace for a Triple Crown when he retired though, one of his best seasons yet. I know Peterson's legacy isn't quite as great as Koufax's, but if you look at his yearly WAR figures its hard to debate that he wasn't one of the very best pitchers in the league year-in and year-out. Unfortunately, AI favors old school stats such as wins (to be fair that's true in real life too). Thanks for your input though, I respect a contrasting opinion!