Orcin's Story

[MizzouRah]

Keep it up!

[Orcin]

October 25, 2007

I have never made an appearance in the clubhouse before a post-season game. I decided this would be a great day to start. I spoke to the team for about five minutes. I told them to give it their best today, because a lot of people are counting on them.

The third ring signifies a “dynasty” and it’s important to the legacy of the Cooper family, especially patriarch Henry (who is in attendance in Charlotte today). The dynasty is important for our fans, who want this team to be known as the ultimate winners.

The dynasty is significant for the manager and coaching staff that have put this team in position to be here. But most of all, the younger guys in the room owe it to the “seniors”; the core group of players that have been here for all four World Series trips. They don’t know when, or if, they will be back. Let’s make it happen for them today!

**********

Left unsaid was… while we have our ace on the mound… and before we have to face Fletcher again… and then possibly go to a game seven.

[Orcin]

2007 Continental Baseball Association World Series
Charlotte Knights (93-69) vs. Louisville Colonels (97-65)

GAME 5 @ Charlotte: Robert Westaway vs. Ian James

Sanchez opened the game with a single to left. Byrne put the hit-and-run on, something he never does with a left-handed batter vs. a left-handed pitcher. Dominguez singled to right and Sanchez moved around to third. Morgan drove a ball to the center field fence, allowing Sanchez to tag up and score.

Medina walked in the home half of the first and Baker singled to right. Sanchez rifled a throw to third base but Medina slid into ahead of it. Sanchez grabbed his elbow and sat down on the field. The trainer went out, and then both of them walked slowly back to the dugout and disappeared into the clubhouse. Juan Gonzalez took over in right field.

Westaway proceeded to walk three more Charlotte hitters before finally escaping the inning. The Knights had a 2-1 lead on only one hit, and Westaway had already thrown 37 pitches. The skies were dark and rain appeared imminent.

Simon led off the second with a walk, stole a base, and scored on a single by John to tie the game at 2. Juan Gonzalez slammed a solo homer to center field in the fifth to give Louisville a 3-2 lead. Westaway finished the fifth having allowed only one base runner since the first inning. He was up to 90 pitches and the rain had held off so far.

Catcher Nick Boyd tied the game with a 2-out RBI double in the sixth. Westaway was told to pitch around the eight hitter, 2B Harvey Rowe, but he got one a little too far over the plate and Rowe lined it into left field. Boyd scored the lead run for the Knights. The bullpen kept the game at 4-3 through eight innings.

Morgan led off the ninth with a single. Bland followed with a single, and Morgan stopped at second. Brown slapped a grounder through the pitcher’s legs for an infield single, loading the bases with no outs. Simon struck out.

John, 3-3 on the day so far, hit a ground ball to third. The throw came to the plate, forcing Morgan, but there was no chance to get John for the double play. The bases were still loaded with two outs.

Cristo Rodriguez came up as the last hope for the Colonels. The count went to 2-1 and closer Vic Staten challenged Rodriguez with his fastball. That was a mistake. Rodriguez was guessing fastball and ripped it down the left field line for a double. All three runners crossed the plate and it was 6-4 in favor of Louisville. Rain began to fall in Charlotte.

Byrne sent Edgardo Garza out for the ninth. No, he did not send George King. Garza struck out the first batter and walked the second. Garza gave up a single and Byrne went to get him.

Jesus Trejo came in to face the left-handed batter Wayne Baker, representing the winning run. (Nathaniel Jones was tired and Byrne did not want to use him.) Baker popped up and now all that stood between Louisville and another ring was Jon Schultz.

Trejo’s wild pitch advanced the runners and got the crowd really roaring. Schultz struck out on another wild pitch in the dirt… BUT the ball got away from Bland and Schultz reached first safely!

The fifth run scored for Charlotte and the other runner advanced to third. Byrne came out again and called for George King to face the switch-hitter Robert Thompson.

We’ll let the Louisville radio broadcaster describe the action as it was heard on the old Arvin tube model in the apartment above Sal’s shop…

*crackle*
King is ready to go now.
Bland settles in behind the plate… Thompson steps into the box on the left side…
Men on the corners, two down… crowd is standing… man, it’s loud in here…
The windup… and here’s the first pitch from King… swing…
POPPED IT UP… foul territory… Brown is under it… waiting…

LOUISVILLE WINS THE WORLD SERIES!
LOUISVILLE WINS THE WORLD SERIES!
LOUISVILLE WINS THE WORLD SERIES!

FINAL: Louisville 6, Charlotte 5
Louisville wins the series 4-1.

Dennis Morgan was named the MVP of the 2007 World Series. Morgan was 7-18 (.389) with 4 HR and 8 RBI in the five games.

[Westheim]

Gotta get myself a new crystal ball!

Congratulations on your dynasty! You really made me sweat through that last inning, especially when Schultz came up to bat.

Those Colonels. Will they ever finish second?

[Orcin]

October 25, 2007 (BNN Evening Edition)

Subject: Colonels Top Knights in World Series

It was a storybook year for the Louisville Colonels as they closed out a 4-1 series win over the Charlotte Knights to claim the 2007 World Series. They wrapped it up with a 6-5 victory to cap an incredible season and brought home their 3rd championship.

The Colonels manager Chad Byrne gave his view of the series, "We had a lot of things going for us, offense and defense doing it at the right time. That's what it takes to win a World Series."

"We're disappointed we lost, but we're also very proud of what we did all year," said the Knights manager Daniel MacArthur. "They played better baseball than us this week and they beat us."

During the Federal League Midwest Division regular season Louisville put up a 97-65 record and finished first for the eighth consecutive year.

The Colonels announced after the game that RF Eduardo Sanchez was diagnosed with a bad elbow sprain. Fortunately, there was no ligament damage and 5-6 weeks of rest should take care of it. Sanchez was injured early in the final game of the World Series.

[Orcin]

THE THREE-RING CLUB

The following players now have three World Series rings with the Colonels:

SP Ray Alexander
SP Robert Westaway
MR Bruce Brooks
MR Edgardo Garza
MR Nathaniel Jones
MR Jesus Trejo
C Duncan Bland
1B Chris Brown
2B Tom John
3B Lucio Martinez
3B Pierre-Louis Simon
LF Dennis Morgan
RF Jeffrey Jackson

Congratulations to all of these players. The franchise sincerely appreciates their efforts and leadership.

[jaysdailydose]

Congratulations on this championship and your consensus as a dynasty for the ages. I just hope you don't intend on stopping anytime soon, as this still gets more interesting with every post.

Tip of the cap to you, Mr. Orcin.

[Orcin]

2007 Game Score = 100

Total revenues for 2007 were $138 million (same as 2006) including $8.2 million of playoff revenue. The Colonels were fifth (same as last year) in CBA attendance with 3,281,608, and gate revenue increased to $80.1 million (#8 compared to #11 last year). The Louisville franchise turned a profit of $16 million this year (slightly higher than last season).

Henry and Gordon Cooper informed me that the 2008 budget will be set at $148 million, an increase of $2 million. We also have the usual $8 million in cash available to facilitate trades or sign a free agent. I intend to use $130 million as my personal budget target. This is roughly $100 million for salaries including personnel and another $30 million for operating expenses. I will confirm a more precise number later but this is close enough.

[Orcin]

October 27, 2007 - The Off-Season Begins

Key dates:
November 6-10 – Award announcements
November 17 – Salary arbitration hearings
November 20 – Eligible players file for free agency
December 1 – “Rule 5” Draft
December 10-14 – Winter Meetings
February 7, 2008 – Preseason begins

Management Carousel Begins:
The following CBA personnel were fired (or their contracts were allowed to expire) after the season.

Federal League:
Dallas Rattlers (93-69, 2nd): GM Eddie Pearson, MGR Hal Buckner (retired)
Milwaukee Eagles (79-83, 7th): GM Buck Welch
Seattle Falcons (76-86, 9th): MGR Pat Smith
San Francisco Seals (74-88, 11th): MGR Dave Riley
Phoenix Coyotes (74-88, 11th): GM Don Watson
Chicago Cougars (73-89, 14th): GM Glenn Jackson, MGR Pedro Rodriguez
Los Angeles Vipers (65-97, 15th): GM Lorenzo Morin

Patriot League:
Charlotte Knights (93-69, 1st): GM Juan Carlos Mendoza (retired)
Washington Admirals (81-81, 7th): GM Javier Ortiz (fired 1 year after WS)
Charleston Generals (77-85, 11th): MGR Dani Rivera
Atlanta Flames (77-85, 12th): GM Bob Barrett
Cincinnati Bobcats (73-89, 14th): GM Bill Dundee
Nashville Tigers (65-97, 15th): MGR Ramiro Flores (interim hired in late Sept.)

[MizzouRah]

Way to go, skipper!

[Orcin]

Preliminary 2008 Planning: Roster Analysis and Depth Chart

The road map for next season’s roster is below. This analysis is a little more detailed than usual, mainly because the franchise is approaching a crossroads. There is no concern with the $130 million budget target this season, but the preliminary spending projection for 2009 is $145 million. It gets even worse in 2010 unless we don’t renew the contracts of some of the “three-ring” players. The time to prepare for this crisis is now. We need a contingency plan for core players that may not be here in 2010, and perhaps it is also time to expedite their departure while they still have value in the marketplace.

There has been plenty of talk around the barbershop about the core of this team getting older. There is no question that we slipped a little this year, but the battle was won by our experience and leadership down the stretch and in the post-season. The chemistry in our clubhouse and the consistent management are also big reasons why we continue to dominate the league with a mid-level payroll and very few all-stars. I intend to be very careful about not disturbing those intangible benefits as long as we continue to win. But that doesn’t mean that we can’t make a few changes to improve the team, like the trade of Davidson for Sanchez this year. I don’t want to rebuild. I just want to reload.

Starting Pitchers: Robert Westaway is signed to a long-term contract. He is a true ace and is rated the #4 pitcher in the CBA. Antonio Luna and Ray Alexander are the #2 and #3 starters, and they each have two years to go on fairly inexpensive deals. They were both somewhat inconsistent in 2007, but I expect them to have solid seasons in 2008 and 2009. Edgardo Ordonez will be the #4 starter, and he should continue to develop into a potential ace. Aaron Wilkerson is signed to a very club-friendly contract through 2011, and he really stepped up in the last couple of months of 2007. He is slated to be the fifth starter but he could be the #3 starter with a strong spring.

Juan Hernandez is still developing but he does not appear to be a future star. He had a great start in 2007 but faded badly after a couple of turns around the league. Hernandez projects to be an emergency starter and long relief arm at this point, but there is room for him to surprise. Our best prospect is Will Spencer, a round 4 draft pick from 2004. He needs to improve his control in order to be a serious candidate for our major league staff. The #8 starter on the depth chart is Luis “Pokey” Gonzales, who had a pretty good year at AAA after being signed to a minor league contract in late May. All eight pitchers will need to be on major league contracts and protected if we expect to retain them.

Overall, the starting pitching is fine as long as we can avoid a rash of injuries. Questions for the future revolve around the top of the rotation for 2010 and beyond. Luna is young enough to be around, but is he good enough to be the #2 starter on a contender? How long will Westaway be at the top of his game and healthy? Is Alexander still a consistent double-digit winner, or was his late-season slump a sign of bad things to come?

Prospects: There are a few in the lower minors, but there are no superstars in the group. This is a big concern for the future. I need a right-handed ace to pair with Ordonez. Maybe it’s Luna, but I prefer to pin my hopes on someone younger.

Bullpen: George King is a free agent. He is asking for a 4-year contract at $3.2 million per year. He is not eligible for compensation, so he won’t be tendered arbitration. His demands are not unreasonable, but I just think it is time to go in a different direction.

Edgardo Garza was 6-1 with a 1.62 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. He struck out 79 and only walked 16 in 78 innings. Enriquez rates his stuff at 9 and movement at 10. He throws a sinking fastball at 98 mph and compliments it with a great slider. His groundball rate is 72%. Sound like a closer to you? Yep, it does to me too. He is signed for three more years at an average of $2M/year, and he expects to be the closer.

Bruce “Fat Cat” Brooks is a very similar pitcher to Garza, but he is a few years younger. He is great setup man and there is no reason to mess with that. His expectation is “bullpen”, so he will not be unhappy about his role. Nat Jones is a quality left-handed specialist and performed extremely well in the short role last year.

Phil Davies (R) and Jesus Trejo (L) are the long relievers. Starter Juan Hernandez is slated for the final bullpen spot and mop-up duty. Ricardo Quinones and rookie Jorge Merced will battle for the last spot. Lefty Francisco Rodriguez is extremely talented but he also has options remaining. Right-handers Mike Guthrie and Rob Bryant will be on the 40-man roster if I carry ten relievers. Merced and Rodriguez are the future stars.

Catcher: Duncan Bland is the CBA’s #1 catcher and one of the most valuable players on the team. He will be 28 years old next year and is signed for two more seasons. His next contract is a priority for the 2010 budget and I will do whatever it takes to keep him. The backup catcher is Rich Stanley and I plan to exercise his team option for 2008 at $1.1M/year. Third catcher Bill Landreth has minor league options left and can stay at AAA. I have an excellent prospect in 2007 second-round draft pick Kevin Thomas, who will be in AA this season.

**********

Ok Jennifer, I think that’s enough for today. I know you and Chris are anxious to get packed for your cruise. Enjoy it, and don’t worry about us. Paula has been training for a couple of weeks now, and I am confident that she can handle things while you are gone. I’ll see you in mid-November, just in time to get those arbitration hearings handled.

Is she gone, Paula? Ok, good. We are not really quitting for the day. I needed her out of here so that the next section could remain confidential as long as possible. You’ll see why in the next post. For new readers, I’ll just point out that my administrative assistant, Jennifer Clark Brown, is also Mrs. Chris Brown. Yes, THAT Chris Brown.

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Is she gone, Paula? Ok, good. We are not really quitting for the day. I needed her out of here so that the next section could remain confidential as long as possible. You’ll see why in the next post. For new readers, I’ll just point out that my administrative assistant, Jennifer Clark Brown, is also Mrs. Chris Brown. Yes, THAT Chris Brown.

Ah, the plot thickens.

Huhhh!!! You're gonna send away Brownie!?

[Orcin]

Preliminary 2008 Planning: Roster Analysis and Depth Chart (continued)

First Base: Chris Brown (.277/.353/.489, 28 HR, 98 RBI) was one of our best players for most of the season. He was our player of the month for May, June, and July. He bounced back from a sub-par year in 2006, but not all the way back to his 2004-05 level. As good as he was for us last year, there is no doubt that he is beginning to decline at age 30. His VORP figures are 2004=54, 2005=60, 2006=16, and 2007=28.



The player on the left is Chris Brown. The player on the right is Mike Guy. They both play first base, and only first base. Guy bats left. Brown is a switch-hitter but he is much better from the left side, so it is not an obvious platoon situation.

Guy looks like the better player on paper. They don’t play the games on paper or a computer. If we just used player ratings and generated random numbers to see the outcome, anybody could do this job.

We know Brown plays above his ratings. We don’t know about the other “Guy” in the majors – we do know he tears up AAA. We also know that we might not have been in a position to make a late season run had Brown not carried us through the summer.

And then, there’s the money. Brown has a four-year contract that starts in 2008 at $8.5M/year. Guy will not be eligible for arbitration until after the 2009 season. My plan was to use Guy’s remaining option to stash him at AAA in 2008, use him on the bench in 2009, and then begin to work Guy in during the 2010 season with only two years to go on Brown’s contract. Guy’s performance at AAA and his ratings suggest that we should accelerate that plan. My scout says that Guy is an elite hitter. Brown is good, but he is not elite. An elite left-handed hitter batting behind Morgan would be really sweet.

I plan to give Guy every opportunity to win the job next spring. I am willing to start the season with Brown and Guy splitting time at first base until one player asserts himself. If Guy wins the job, then I will have a tough decision because Brown is too expensive to ride the bench. I suspect Brown has low trade value now, and I fear waiting until he is considered an “overpaid veteran”. Maybe I should test the market sooner, but it’s risky.

Now you see why I didn’t want Jennifer to read this. We will just keep this to ourselves for now. I fully expect this to become an issue soon. And when I say “issue”, I don’t just mean in the clubhouse and dugout. I mean in this office.

[dawg_gone]

Ah, the perils of .. nepotism? Jennifer has been known to slip a comma here and there in paperwork. I say move her to the Rattlers now, while she has market value, in return for a prospective AA and a Staples card.

[Orcin]

Preliminary 2008 Planning: Roster Analysis and Depth Chart (continued)

I have some interest in looking at the free agent list for infielders. The situation here is not perfect, but I could also go into the season and compete with this group as is.

Second Base: Tom John is a solid, reliable player. His batting average since becoming the regular second baseman: 2004=.294, 2005=.298, 2006=.312, and 2007=.299. He draws walks, never strikes out (averages 17 per year), and steals bases (19 per year). That’s right – he has more stolen bases than strikeouts! John has improved his defense at second base to the point where he is above average at the position. He is signed to a club-friendly contract through 2010. I love the guy.

Shortstop: Cristo Rodriguez was hitting .308 at May 31 but slumped badly over the second half of the season (.221 after May 31). His defense is stellar and he is a great teammate. I can afford to carry him as the #8 hitter if he continues to hit .250 with some speed. He is arbitration eligible next year, so this might be a good time to lock him up at a low salary before he figures out how to hit .300 for a full season.

Middle infield reserves: Russell Bennett is a great utility infielder but he is a free agent and wants $3-4M/year. I think it is time for us to go in a different direction. Rookie Larry Marshall is a defensive wiz that can play every position on the field except catcher. He is option #1 for next year. John and Rodriguez both play 150 games per year, so I am also toying with the idea of using Simon as the backup for both middle infield spots (effectively Lucio Martinez would backup all three infield positions with Simon playing 2B/SS for 20-25 games per year). This plan would allow me to carry a fifth outfielder. Octavio Mata is a decent 2B/SS option at AAA but he has little major league potential. Ray Holliday (2B) will probably be waived because he is out of minor league options.

Third Base: Pierre-Louis Simon is still a highly-rated player. Fans love him, and so do the other GM’s around the league. He should be the Gold Glove winner at third base. He stole 47 bases (#5 in the CBA). He is 31 years old and signed for another two years at $9M/year. He expects a spot at the top of the lineup, but he hit .237 with a terrible .300 OBP. Simon isn’t going anywhere but he really needs to have a comeback season at the plate. I can live with a lower batting average (.260-.270?) and some power (he hit 19 HR) in the sixth spot, but I would really like to see him bat second to take advantage of that speed on the bases. If Simon hits .280 with a .350 on-base, like he did in 2006, I will be thrilled. Lucio Martinez is back for another year as the key RH bat off the bench and insurance at third base. Martinez hit .368 as a pinch-hitter last year and played well while Simon was out with a minor injury. He will be 33 years old next spring, and he is signed for 2 years at $2M/year (but 2009 is a team option).

Infield Prospects: I wish I had some. I have players filling minor league roles but none that I project to be a major league star. Maybe a few that could be projected to make a major league roster somewhere. We urgently need to find a successor for Simon at third base. John/Rodriguez/Marshall can handle the middle infield for several years.

[Jabez54]

Always love your witticism, mate (so this might be a good time to lock him up at a low salary before he figures out how to hit .300 for a full season.)

... I want to wish you all a very Happy New Year ... Please stay safe and live simple tonight and for 2013 ...

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Jabez54

I want to wish you all a very Happy New Year

And the same to you, my friend!

[Orcin]

Preliminary 2008 Planning: Roster Analysis and Depth Chart (conclusion)

Left Field: Dennis Morgan was the MVP of the World Series. He is a team leader and a fan favorite. He had an off-year in 2007 and still contributed 37 HR and 109 RBI to lead the team in both categories. He is the ideal cleanup hitter if I can fit the rest of the lineup around him. I expect him to better his .808 OPS next year, perhaps something closer to the 52 HR and .960 OPS from 2006. Defensively, Morgan is a very good left fielder with excellent range and hands. Morgan is signed through 2010 at $10-12M/year.

Center Field: Pedro Dominguez had a sophomore slump in 2007, turning in a stat line of .267/.339/.441, 24 HR, 90 RBI. He had 41 stolen bases and played at a Gold Glove level in center field. We need him to raise the batting average about 30 points and the rest would take care of itself. He is arbitration eligible next season, so signing him to a club-friendly long-term contract is a top priority.

Right Field: Ron Hartman will be healthy next spring, but Eduardo Sanchez has taken over Hartman’s spot. Sanchez is arbitration eligible next year and I need to negotiate a long-term deal with him now. Hartman is signed to a club-friendly contract through 2010. One of these two may eventually be traded but I can probably afford to keep both this year. I expect Sanchez to be an all-star, perhaps win a batting title, and probably lead the league in stolen bases. Hartman would be a great asset on the bench, providing speed and outfield defense at all three spots. He could also be great trade bait.

Outfield reserves: Besides Hartman, we have Juan Gonzalez and some AAA players. Jeffrey Jackson will be a free agent and he is too expensive. Pablo Guzman will not be tendered arbitration, because he is out of options and did nothing for us. Gonzalez was mediocre at best, but he has three minor league options so I can send him to AAA if I need space on the active roster. I may look at the free agent market for a right-handed corner outfielder with power that could spell Morgan and help off the bench. Gonzalez is a right-handed hitter with speed and defensive skills but his production at the plate falls short. Perhaps a year at AAA would help him. Arlen Craig and Gerald Blair are AAA outfielders (both bat left) that will likely make the 40-man roster but are not future stars.

Outfield prospects: CF Rafael Valdez had a rough year due to injuries, but he is still a 5-star prospect. He will be 21 this season and could be ready to challenge for a spot in the outfield in 2009. Perhaps he will become the replacement for Morgan someday, or he may push Dominguez out of the way even sooner.

Unfortunately, last year’s #1 draft pick, LF/RF Tom Frye, the right-handed power hitter that was going to succeed Morgan, has turned into mush overnight. He no longer looks like a superstar. Perhaps he was over-rated by my scout, or maybe I pushed him too hard by sending him to Evansville instead of rookie ball at Owensboro. If Frye is not going to be the future replacement for Morgan, I need to find one somewhere soon.

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Center Field: Pedro Dominguez had a sophomore slump in 2007, turning in a stat line of .267/.339/.441, 24 HR, 90 RBI. He had 41 stolen bases and played at a Gold Glove level in center field.

How dare you call that slump?

I know certain managers of certain teams that would certainly kill or die to have that guy, and certainly especially in certainfi- ah, centerfield.

KILL or DIE!!

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Westheim

How dare you call that slump?

I know certain managers of certain teams that would certainly kill or die to have that guy.

Good point. I guess every evaluation is relative to one's own situation. There are teams in my league that would be much better with a 2007 Dominguez also.