Problems with pitching ratings in the game engine

[phightin]

I've been playing this game and have been around the forums long enough to know when something is off and I believe it is. I remember there was a guy who posted on here recently as well as a few others about how his starting pitchers were getting absolutely destroyed and he couldnt figure out why. The guy of course was quickly shot down but after seeing his and a couple other posts on a similar thing I believe he may be on to something.

I present to you my 2014 phillies team and Cole Hamels. Long story short I edited Cole using the player editor as I have done countless times in other games at the start of the season because I felt the game did not make him quite good enough and wanted it to be closer to real life etc. It wasn't anything major as his ERA was upgraded to 3.10 and some improvements were made to his pitches. Anyway, after a few games into the season I began to notice a nosedive with him. For whatever reason he was allowing a lot of runs and also a lot of hits and im not just talking about simple singles lots of doubles etc. Anyway, at first I thought it was just a slump but after quite a few games I began to take notice. It got to the point where it got frusturating so I raised his stats to very ridiculous lengths. Based on what the editor says he should easily be one of the best pitchers in the MLB or should at least be getting decent results. Instead the hit parade simply continues. Because I play out my games when he pitches I can get a feel for how things are going. It's getting quite comical, just about every at bat that isnt a strike out is a guy slugging a ball deep into the outfield. And Im not exaggerating just look at those slugging numbers against him.

Anyway I'll present a series of pictures showing just how bad this is. My initial reaction is that in one of the updates something went screwy with the pitching engine in the way it generates results for human related teams or maybe they just hate Cole Hamels. I've edited his ratings to extreme lengths and they've been pretty much like that for a couple months now. Oh and FYI my defense isnt great but isnt bad and while my pitching staff has struggled to some degree I have had a couple guys who have had decent seasons.

[Charlie Hough]

Are you bothering to use infield shifts and change outfield depth when you're managing games? Are you pitching around hitters when appropriate? I suspect that's where your problem lies unless you're not managing your games and are only watching them.

Beyond that suspicion, there's also the issue of statistical variation. Players can have bad years in OOTP. In real life, Hamels didn't have a great season in 2009, and opposing hitters batted .273 with a .315 OBP, .440 SLG, .321 BABIP, and .755 OPS. Your numbers for 2014 are worse all around, but they're not all that far away from his 2009 performance, which was the worst of his career.

Also, is development enabled during the season, and did his pitching talent drop compared to your first simmed season? Player ratings can change for the worse, especially after injuries or as players age.

However, I suspect that the primary problem is human management style. At worst, he simply had an off year. These fluctuations happen all the time in real life, even among star players, so I don't see it as all that unrealistic. Besides, maybe it's karmic retribution for editing his ratings in the first place.

[RchW]

What stands out to me is his pitch ratings. There is a disconnect between his poor (3 pitches) pitch ratings and his stuff and movement ratings. I can't find pitchers in my league who match his stuff and movement without having better pitches. The closest analogue to Hamels is below. His walk rate is 30% higher matching the control ratings but his better pitches match his ratings such that he allows 10% less hits. HR are park factored so don't tell us much.

I think it's clear that Hamels pitch ratings suggests overall ratings of 12 10 16 maybe 14 11 16.

Individual Pitch Ratings
Each pitcher in OOTP can throw an assortment of different pitches, displayed in the Player Profile or on the Player Ratings page. Just as with other pitching ratings, pitchers have "current" and "potential" rating for each pitch. Higher individual pitch ratings mean a higher likelihood of getting hitters out. Additionally, a pitcher's repertoire has a strong impact on the role in which the pitcher will be successful. Typically, a pitcher (with the exception of knuckleballers) needs at least three solid pitches to be an effective starting pitcher in a major league. The lower the league level, the fewer pitches a pitcher needs to compete.

[BIG17EASY]

I'll start by admitting I know nothing about how the game engine works. That said, I've been frustrated by Hamels, also. I signed him when he hit free agency and he had a good 2013, then bombed (for a guy with his ratings) in 2014 and 2015.

However, I looked through my world and could not find another pitcher with similar ratings who tanked the way Hamels did for two seasons. So I chalked it up to the whole "that's why they play the games" argument. If baseball (real-life, OOTP and other games) was about compiling a roster that's presumed to be the most talented, it would be a lot easier than it is. Just ask the Marlins and Yankees this year.

EDIT TO ADD: I just noticed in your first screenshot that it shows the stats his ratings would be expected to produce based on a neutral, modern Major League environment, and the stats are pretty good. Is it possible you did something to your league stat totals or league modifiers that changed things?

Also, it looks like he missed all of 2013 with an injury. Again, I have no knowledge of the game engine, but most pitching injuries that require that long of a recovery take two years to return to elite level, so at least to me, his 2014 stats don't seem unrealistic. His Ks are down and hits are up, all things you could reasonably expect from a pitcher returning from a serious injury.

[pwalt588]

I'm relatively new to OOTP. I've been doing the 2010 season. All I did was change team names and ballparks, but I kept every team's players and lineups the same. I have only been watching the games in a "commissioner" role. I, too, have noticed that pitching is getting crushed.

But some of these posts in this thread have me questioning: Will results always be skewed (as opposed to real life) if you only watch the games; as opposed to playing them out and/or managing them?

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by pwalt588

I'm relatively new to OOTP. I've been doing the 2010 season. All I did was change team names and ballparks, but I kept every team's players and lineups the same. I have only been watching the games in a "commissioner" role. I, too, have noticed that pitching is getting crushed.

But some of these posts in this thread have me questioning: Will results always be skewed (as opposed to real life) if you only watch the games; as opposed to playing them out and/or managing them?

Well, yeah, if you make mistakes managing your team, like leaving a pitcher in too long, not pitching around hitters in the appropriate moments, etc.

If you're asking if the game engine works differently between watching or playing out games, that's been a common question on the boards. I believe Markus has stated that there's no difference, but anyone who knows for sure should feel free to correct me.

[pwalt588]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

Well, yeah, if you make mistakes managing your team, like leaving a pitcher in too long, not pitching around hitters in the appropriate moments, etc.

If you're asking if the game engine works differently between watching or playing out games, that's been a common question on the boards. I believe Markus has stated that there's no difference, but anyone who knows for sure should feel free to correct me.

I don't want to steal from the original thread....but I don't do any managing. I simply enjoy watching the games play out. Without any input from me, the game certainly appears to behave differently (ie: stats are grossly off from real life). I have to assume that this is game engine-related?

[VanillaGorilla]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

Also, it looks like he missed all of 2013 with an injury. Again, I have no knowledge of the game engine, but most pitching injuries that require that long of a recovery take two years to return to elite level, so at least to me, his 2014 stats don't seem unrealistic. His Ks are down and hits are up, all things you could reasonably expect from a pitcher returning from a serious injury.

I think you may have hit on the crucial element here and it may be an impacting factor that is out of the view of the editor screen.

[VanillaGorilla]

Originally Posted by pwalt588

I don't want to steal from the original thread....but I don't do any managing. I simply enjoy watching the games play out. Without any input from me, the game certainly appears to behave differently (ie: stats are grossly off from real life). I have to assume that this is game engine-related?

I find that the game stats are absolutely remarkable in their RL representation, and I sim out most of my games, also. The methodology used for era modifications and player adjustments from dissimilar eras is genius and one of the strongest aspects of the product.

[Charlie Hough]

Originally Posted by pwalt588

Without any input from me, the game certainly appears to behave differently (ie: stats are grossly off from real life).

The game engine is not different at all. However, a human manager can have a significant impact on results, either positively or negatively.

But to suggest the stats are grossly off from real life is pretty ridiculous. If this is happening, it's probably because the development engine is taking over and player ratings are changing during the season and over the course of time. Also, have you ever run historical seasons and compared OOTP results to the real life numbers? You will be shocked at how little variation there is across entire leagues and decades of simulations, though individual player performances can vary due to injuries, usage, the development engine, etc. But you can control for these factors and make the results even more realistic by turning off development during the season and having the game recalculate ratings.

But if you're playing a league that starts in 2012 and moves into the future, then there is no basis to claim that results are unrealistic. Once you allow the game to take on a life of its own, things are going to change and evolve. Once you've moved past 2012, all bets are off. If you also allow the league to evolve in terms of offensive and defensive output, then you can really see some changes and variations.

[pwalt588]

[QUOTE=Charlie Hough;3412841]The game engine is not different at all. However, a human manager can have a significant impact on results, either positively or negatively.

But to suggest the stats are grossly off from real life is pretty ridiculous. If this is happening, it's probably because the development engine is taking over and player ratings are changing during the season and over the course of time. Also, have you ever run historical seasons and compared OOTP results to the real life numbers? You will be shocked at how little variation there is across entire leagues and decades of simulations, though individual player performances can vary due to injuries, usage, the development engine, etc. But you can control for these factors and make the results even more realistic by turning off development during the season and having the game recalculate ratings.-----

Actually the league I'm playing starts in 2010 (not 2012). And maybe it IS something that I'm failing to do (I'm not here to bash the product). Should I be adjusting modifiers...or leaving everything at 1.000 (which is how the strategy screen shows things without any changes). When I say "grossly", I mean that my league is putting up 28-38 errors a night (in 15 games), just to name one stat. In real life, all MLB teams averaged just less than an error a game in 2010. Should I be making manual adjustments? Should I need to?

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by pwalt588

I don't want to steal from the original thread....but I don't do any managing. I simply enjoy watching the games play out. Without any input from me, the game certainly appears to behave differently (ie: stats are grossly off from real life). I have to assume that this is game engine-related?

I sim every single game (watching them in real-time sim) and I'm almost done with 2015 (fourth season with the MLB quickstart) and stats as a whole are incredibly realistic. Sure, some players are underperforming based on what you'd expect from their ratings, but others are exceeding expectations. That's no different than real life.

If your stats are grossly off from real life, I suggest looking closely at your settings. To me, grossly off means multiple hitters hitting over .400, league-wide ERA over 5.00, etc. If that's the case, I think some settings are off.

[megamanmatt]

Originally Posted by pwalt588

But to suggest the stats are grossly off from real life is pretty ridiculous.

Grossly off from real life compared to what exactly?

If you are comparing OOTP Cole Hamels and Real life Cole Hamels then I've isolated your problem right there. OOTP makes no distinction on how Mr. Hamels should preform based on his real life counter part so to expect it to is unrealistic. To OOTP he is not Cole Hamels, he's player #whatever number he happens to be and nothing more. Maybe player #whatever number he happens to be will play really well and exceed his ratings, maybe he's suck an play way below them, or maybe he'll play to his ratings, but in any of those various scenarios the fact his name is Cole Hamels doesn't matter.

[phightin]

Thanks for the input and a lot of you make some good points. Just to address a couple things further.

1. I do not micromanage my games when I play them out. I leave that up to my manager with the only thing I have control over is the substitutions. I usually do a pretty decent job of taking guys out when they should etc not leaving them in too long. Also a lot of the hits and runs happen early in the game so I do not think human element has much to do.

2. He did miss all of 2013 with Tommy John. However, his stats did not suffer and when he returned I edited them because of the consistent elite status he seems to be reaching in real life etc. The ratings weren't as high and drastic as they are not but still very good. ERA around a 3.00 etc. I edited them further about three months ago and problems continued. I know IRL pitchers take time to return to form after returning from serious injury but I was not aware this was the case in OTTP. I know there is a rust factor on injuries but would it really last an entire season? Also, he was doing ok in spring training and then the first month of the season and then tanked. I just do not think the game engine accounts for a serious injury by letting rust play out an entire season. I didn't even think it was possible.

From the responses I heard I think RchW may be on to something. For whatever reason Hamels not only in my game, but in general doesn't perform at a high enough level for his high stats (even before I edited them in the game). When I examine the elite pitchers in my league, especially the elite strike-out guys like Hamels, they all seem to have 3 very dominant pitches and a bit of a higher velocity. Pretty much all elite starters in the game either are strikeout guys with 3 tremendous pitches or have average stuff with about 6-7 different ok pitches and decent movement and control ratings. The ratings for all his pitches there correctly reflect what they are in the engine. I gave him an elite changeup to reflect real life etc. For whatever reason and its just a guess but maybe the pitch combination that Hamels has do not work and he needs 3 dominant pitches instead of one very good pitch, one decent pitch, and two average pitches.

My plan is basically to raise Hamels cutter, and fastball to very good levels. He doesn't use his curve that much IRL and I already raised it a bit so Im not gonna touch it. I will have to probably lower his control and movement a bit so that his era doesnt become ridiculously low. I already raised his control I will lower it back down.

EDIT Just a side note my league uses modern day totals and modifiers and have evolution turned off. Player development is on but like I already explained I am editing his stats. I do think the game does a fairly good job of producing realistic results like others are saying here. At the same time I do also think Hamels is an isolated incident. In my mind for whatever reason the combination of his overall ratings and statistical output do not work with the game engine to get the end result.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by megamanmatt

Grossly off from real life compared to what exactly?

If you are comparing OOTP Cole Hamels and Real life Cole Hamels then I've isolated your problem right there. OOTP makes no distinction on how Mr. Hamels should preform based on his real life counter part so to expect it to is unrealistic. To OOTP he is not Cole Hamels, he's player #whatever number he happens to be and nothing more. Maybe player #whatever number he happens to be will play really well and exceed his ratings, maybe he's suck an play way below them, or maybe he'll play to his ratings, but in any of those various scenarios the fact his name is Cole Hamels doesn't matter.

To answer your first question, compared to real life ... exactly what the guy said.

The person who originally said his stats were grossly off was referring to the entire league, I believe, not just one player. I don't think anyone here is complaining that one player in an MLB of more than 700 players is experiencing bad results with good ratings. The whole point of the OP's post and those supporting him is that it's a league-wide problem that's not limited to Cole Hamels in the OP's situation or player #whatever in someone else's situation.

What some of us are pointing out is that there are factors in play that could be causing Hamels (or other pitchers) to perform below what their ratings suggest they're capable of.

[BIG17EASY]

Hey phightin, one other question -- do you have coaches on? Maybe you have a really bad pitching coach and he's affecting Hamels?

The other thing I keep coming back to is that maybe he's just having a bad season. I don't know if OOTP is built to have players ALWAYS perform at the level of their ratings, but I think we all realize that elite players have poor seasons from time to time. Cliff Lee won 18 games in 2005 for the Indians and wound up in Triple-A two years later because he pitched so poorly, and he wasn't even affected by injury. Then he came back and won the AL Cy Young in 2008. That's quite a swing in performance in the span of four seasons.

Maybe there's an issue with the game engine at hand, but even if there is, I like the variability of the game because I think it reflects real life. But I think you and I play the game in much different ways, so obviously our expectations are much different.

[phightin]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

Hey phightin, one other question -- do you have coaches on? Maybe you have a really bad pitching coach and he's affecting Hamels?

The other thing I keep coming back to is that maybe he's just having a bad season. I don't know if OOTP is built to have players ALWAYS perform at the level of their ratings, but I think we all realize that elite players have poor seasons from time to time. Cliff Lee won 18 games in 2005 for the Indians and wound up in Triple-A two years later because he pitched so poorly, and he wasn't even affected by injury. Then he came back and won the AL Cy Young in 2008. That's quite a swing in performance in the span of four seasons.

Maybe there's an issue with the game engine at hand, but even if there is, I like the variability of the game because I think it reflects real life. But I think you and I play the game in much different ways, so obviously our expectations are much different.

BIGEASY good question. I do have coaches on but I have a very good pitching coach so I do not think he is adversely affecting him. We're not having a good season at all either and a lot of players have poor morale but again hamels is completely happy and besides a low leadership rating has very good personality ratings as well.

I do not think we really play the game differently as I like variations as well. I will admit I have a personal interest and bias being a phillies fan and having it affect my team. If its a simple offseason than I can live with it but what scares me is that it will simply continue. I know guys in OOTP can have off years at times but starters seem to be pretty consistent, especially the ones with elite ratings like I gave him. I don't really have many other answers anymore.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by phightin

BIGEASY good question. I do have coaches on but I have a very good pitching coach so I do not think he is adversely affecting him. We're not having a good season at all either and a lot of players have poor morale but again hamels is completely happy and besides a low leadership rating has very good personality ratings as well.

I do not think we really play the game differently as I like variations as well. I will admit I have a personal interest and bias being a phillies fan and having it affect my team. If its a simple offseason than I can live with it but what scares me is that it will simply continue. I know guys in OOTP can have off years at times but starters seem to be pretty consistent, especially the ones with elite ratings like I gave him. I don't really have many other answers anymore.

I don't have an answer for you either, sorry. The reason I said we play differently is because I would never change a player's ratings. I like dealing with the potential changes in performance and variances from real life, although they do drive me nuts.

[Charlie Hough]

Originally Posted by pwalt588

Actually the league I'm playing starts in 2010 (not 2012). And maybe it IS something that I'm failing to do (I'm not here to bash the product). Should I be adjusting modifiers...or leaving everything at 1.000 (which is how the strategy screen shows things without any changes). When I say "grossly", I mean that my league is putting up 28-38 errors a night (in 15 games), just to name one stat. In real life, all MLB teams averaged just less than an error a game in 2010. Should I be making manual adjustments? Should I need to?

NEVER change the modifiers or the league totals unless you're an advanced user with a thorough knowledge of how these things work. Adjusting the league totals will change results in a way that is 180 degrees opposite from what you think. The best thing is to leave the game alone and let it use the defaults.

More importantly, though, did you start this as a historical game or as a custom MLB game? That can make a huge difference. If you're going to start a game near the present time, I would simply create a default MLB league starting in 2012.

Regardless, you should try creating a new game and leaving all the defaults turned on. Then sim some seasons and look at your results. It sounds like you have some settings somewhere that are screwy, or maybe you modified some of the league totals or modifiers.

The best thing for people to do is to keep it simple and try the game with more of the default settings before trying to modify things.

[VanillaGorilla]

I say all of this respectfully...Maybe because he is a hometown favorite and you see his RL self through hometown media your perception on how good he actually is is skewed towards the positive.

I moved to Philly and watched scores, if not hundreds of their games during the WS runs in the presence of lifelong Philadelphians.

IMO, Cole Hammels is not the elite pitcher I believe you think he is, and he is certainly not the elite guy that the hometown broadcasters make him out to be or the print media wishes him to be. He had an excellent 2008 season and a tremendous post season, but he never captured my fancy like Clayton Kershaw did.

When the Phillies acquired Cliff Lee he was the markedly better pitcher of the two.

My take on Hammels' in 2008 was that he did have potential, but it is yet to be seen how he grows. Philly fan, in general, is a myopic breed. People I spoke to were already saying Hammels was going to have a career like Steve Carlton...he was better than Carlton! Why? Because he was their guy and that's how hometown folks relate to their hometown guys when the local media heaps praises upon praises.

Hammels has not developed into a better pitcher than 2008. If you could take 5 SPs from 2012 to make the rotation of your choosing, if you chose Hammels as one of them you have not made the best rotation...he isn't in the argument.

I don't know what you expect from him here. He isn't Verlander. He isn't Kershaw. Only in a Philadelphia bar could you get away with suggesting that he is.

His HRA in your league is a career norm (since you are playing at CB, the park factor doesn't affect comparison to RL). His K/W is career norm (even after you tweeked). He goes 6+ innings a start. Normal. Again, I don't know what can reasonably be expected.

BABIP needs to be seen in comparison to the rest of your staff, otherwise it means nothing to an audience that only knows you have Cole Hammels and nothing more about your team.

Hammels is a nice pitcher. A number one on half the teams in baseball. He is a Top 20 guy, perhaps. To me, the definition of elite pitcher is one that you can argue as a Top 5 guy and be part of the best rotation you could possibly make. Sorry, Hammels isn't that guy.