Listen to scouts or stats?

matador · 11-17-2012, 12:24 AM

I'm a newb and really like this game so far. Here's my questions.

1. Do you pay more attention to your scout's ratings or the players actual stats? For example, if a player around 30 years old had a great season, but your scout gives him a 21 overall player rating, which one do you give more weight to?
2. This question is related to the above question. When deciding on moving a player up or down in the minors, do you pay attention to the stats or the scout? For example, I traded up to get the top pick in the draft(from the 4th pick), and the scouts thought he was ready for the majors right away with an overall rating of 70. I put him in double A to start, and his ERA was 5.13. I went ahead and moved him up to Triple A, and his ERA there is 5.73, and he isn't looking so good. I'm leaving him in the minors, but should I listen to what my scouts say more? I've also seen the opposite true, where a player is tearing it up, and they say to leave him or demote him.
Thanks in advance for the help.

DanP68 · 11-17-2012, 08:39 AM

Once a player has established himself with at least 2 seasons at a given level, I tend to weigh the stats more than the scouting. For instance if my Scout is telling me that a batter is a can't-miss prospect and needs to be promoted to the majors, but he has been at AAA for 2 seasons and never had more than a .290 OBA or wOBA, I pretty much know the prospect is a dud and that I shouldn't promote him. Better yet, if the AI seems to love the guy, then I'll shop him for better prospects.

As a personal preference, I rarely promote a guy through the minors unless his statistics show mastery of a given level. I don't care what my Scout says. If a pitcher has a 6 ERA and more walks than strikeouts, I'm not promoting him until he shows real progress in games.

Once a player is at the MLB level for a few seasons, and clearly isn't in a rapid improvement or age decline mode, then I focus on statistical performance more than anything else. I have a second baseman who is rated as a 20 defender (on 1-20 scale), but his ZR over the course of a full season is almost never above +5 to +8. On the other had I have 16 defender in Right Field who routinely has a ZR of +10 to +20. At some point, I just acknowledge that the stats aren't lying and my Scout is not that accurate.

When Scouting is most important is when a player is rapidly improving or falling apart. In your example, you have a 30 year old who puts up good numbers but your Scout thinks he is terrible. Perhaps your Scout is wrong. Or perhaps your Scout is saying, "He may have been good last year, but his skills are eroding fast and you had better sell him off while you can."

In that sense, OOTP mimics real baseball very well. It's a tough decision, and you need to weigh as much info as you can get your hands on.

Honorable_Pawn · 11-17-2012, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DanP68

As a personal preference, I rarely promote a guy through the minors unless his statistics show mastery of a given level. I don't care what my Scout says. If a pitcher has a 6 ERA and more walks than strikeouts, I'm not promoting him until he shows real progress in games.

I follow this advice pretty closely too with two primary exceptions.

Shortstops and catchers.

matador · 11-18-2012, 10:51 AM

Thanks for the help. It makes sense. I think I need to be a little more patient. When I see a guy is playing great at a level for a month or two, then I promote them. The same with demoting a player.
Sorry for the ignorance, but what is ZR?

TGH-Adfabre · 11-18-2012, 03:40 PM

Try this, it is a decent explanation.
What is Zone Rating?
Exactly how OOTP comes up with the rating is unknown to me.

11-17-2012, 12:24 AM	#1
matador Bat Boy Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 5	Listen to scouts or stats? I'm a newb and really like this game so far. Here's my questions. 1. Do you pay more attention to your scout's ratings or the players actual stats? For example, if a player around 30 years old had a great season, but your scout gives him a 21 overall player rating, which one do you give more weight to? 2. This question is related to the above question. When deciding on moving a player up or down in the minors, do you pay attention to the stats or the scout? For example, I traded up to get the top pick in the draft(from the 4th pick), and the scouts thought he was ready for the majors right away with an overall rating of 70. I put him in double A to start, and his ERA was 5.13. I went ahead and moved him up to Triple A, and his ERA there is 5.73, and he isn't looking so good. I'm leaving him in the minors, but should I listen to what my scouts say more? I've also seen the opposite true, where a player is tearing it up, and they say to leave him or demote him. Thanks in advance for the help.

11-18-2012, 03:40 PM	#5
TGH-Adfabre Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 2,601	Try this, it is a decent explanation. What is Zone Rating? Exactly how OOTP comes up with the rating is unknown to me. __________________ You mock me, therefore I am My wife

11-17-2012, 08:39 AM	#2
DanP68 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 151	Once a player has established himself with at least 2 seasons at a given level, I tend to weigh the stats more than the scouting. For instance if my Scout is telling me that a batter is a can't-miss prospect and needs to be promoted to the majors, but he has been at AAA for 2 seasons and never had more than a .290 OBA or wOBA, I pretty much know the prospect is a dud and that I shouldn't promote him. Better yet, if the AI seems to love the guy, then I'll shop him for better prospects. As a personal preference, I rarely promote a guy through the minors unless his statistics show mastery of a given level. I don't care what my Scout says. If a pitcher has a 6 ERA and more walks than strikeouts, I'm not promoting him until he shows real progress in games. Once a player is at the MLB level for a few seasons, and clearly isn't in a rapid improvement or age decline mode, then I focus on statistical performance more than anything else. I have a second baseman who is rated as a 20 defender (on 1-20 scale), but his ZR over the course of a full season is almost never above +5 to +8. On the other had I have 16 defender in Right Field who routinely has a ZR of +10 to +20. At some point, I just acknowledge that the stats aren't lying and my Scout is not that accurate. When Scouting is most important is when a player is rapidly improving or falling apart. In your example, you have a 30 year old who puts up good numbers but your Scout thinks he is terrible. Perhaps your Scout is wrong. Or perhaps your Scout is saying, "He may have been good last year, but his skills are eroding fast and you had better sell him off while you can." In that sense, OOTP mimics real baseball very well. It's a tough decision, and you need to weigh as much info as you can get your hands on.

11-18-2012, 10:51 AM	#4
matador Bat Boy Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 5	Thanks for the help. It makes sense. I think I need to be a little more patient. When I see a guy is playing great at a level for a month or two, then I promote them. The same with demoting a player. Sorry for the ignorance, but what is ZR?