My Dilemma

RchW · 10-16-2012, 10:49 PM

This is maybe the best pitcher I've had on my team. He is declining and wants 5 years at very big bucks. My counter offer was 2 years at $18.9M $19.9M with a vesting option at $19.9M at 30 starts. He says "submit the offer", my problem is that I think I should move on.

Heart or head?

RchW · 10-16-2012, 10:52 PM

His ratings.

WSoxfan86 · 10-16-2012, 11:20 PM

Based off of this, I'd keep him. His ratings seem high enough, and I'd have to imagine that he'd be extremely popular with your fans. Also it looks good when a pitcher wins 300 games with one team(or close to it, anyways)

Righty Groove · 10-16-2012, 11:25 PM

I would keep him. I know I would end up hating to see him on another team. And the contract is short enough to be enticing.

I mean, this is a game, afterall.

And that 70%+ ground ball rate... Damn!

On a more cold-hearted note, you should analyze where your team is at. Does keeping him force you to move a younger/similar player? What about next year? Are you on win-now mode? Have you won a lot recently (as in, you're not desperate to WIN NOW)?

I've had a similar situation in my game. Great SP, nearing 300 wins, multiple award winner. He was younger, though, but was showing signs of decline and wanted a longer deal. I kept him and, alltough he wasn't worth it at the last year of contract, he retired never having played on another franchise. A franchise icon kind of guy

RchW · 10-16-2012, 11:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Righty Groove

I would keep him. I know I would end up hating to see him on another team. And the contract is short enough to be enticing.

I mean, this is a game, afterall.

And that 70%+ ground ball rate... Damn!

On a more cold-hearted note, you should analyze where your team is at. Does keeping him force you to move a younger/similar player? What about next year? Are you on win-now mode? Have you won a lot recently (as in, you're not desperate to WIN NOW)?

I've had a similar situation in my game. Great SP, nearing 300 wins, multiple award winner. He was younger, though, but was showing signs of decline and wanted a longer deal. I kept him and, alltough he wasn't worth it at the last year of contract, he retired never having played on another franchise. A franchise icon kind of guy

This is why I posted. I'm in transition. I have a perennially dominant team but no money for free agents. He is my favorite player bar none but I could use that $20 Million.

His playoff record.

MizzouRah · 10-16-2012, 11:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WSoxfan86

Based off of this, I'd keep him. His ratings seem high enough, and I'd have to imagine that he'd be extremely popular with your fans. Also it looks good when a pitcher wins 300 games with one team(or close to it, anyways)

I agree.. plus, he's off to another great start.

Scottiedog · 10-17-2012, 01:12 AM

If your in a slight rebuild mode it would be nice to snag a couple compensation picks for him. Plus, the 20 million would be handy I'm sure.
However, if he's your ace and there are no clear cut replacements on the horizon it might be who of you to keep him on for a couple more years. At least till he get to 300 wins.

TGH-Adfabre · 10-17-2012, 02:00 AM

I would offer 6 years, $90 million.
Year 1 $10 mil (Age 38 season)
Year 1 $10 mil (Age 39 season)
Year 1 $10 mil (Age 40 season)
Year 1 $10 mil (Age 41 season)
Year 1 $25 mil (Age 42 season)
Year 1 $25 mil (Age 43 season)

I am batting .500 with contracts like this. I have had 3 accepted.
The first (Columbus "HGH" Bumpus) played out ok. The player lasted until the 1st salary increase but put up a low 3.00 ERA that season and then retired. He pitched until he was 42.

The second ("King" Rupert Salomon) played until the same salary increase but had deteriorated drastically and received a CEI that ST. He rode out the season on the DL and retired. He was 38 when he retired and was only 3 years into the contract.

The third is still active (Richard "The Mechanic" Honea), I had to have one nickname that referenced Charles Bronson

. We shall see how it plays out.

Sorry, I cannot get the links to work properly. If you are interested they are in our league history. I cannot get the player pages to link, only the History main page.
All three can be found in Players tab in our League History, I am pissed that I cannot get the stupid links to work right. All three players are in the first 5 listed on the "Alphabet" page of the players tab.
Good luck,
Tom

The Game · 10-17-2012, 02:23 AM

How many years was the deal? I would sign him to a one yr deal, see if he can get those 300 wins then do a Carlton Fisk on him and waive him and hope he retires when he gets it.

jmount78 · 10-17-2012, 09:33 AM

I had a similar favorite, except he was a first baseman who was still raking the ball in his late 30's. I extended his contract for 5 years which really limited me financially. Ater the first year, he went from outstanding to ordinary and then average.

It wasn't worth tying up my money and reducing my flexibility to fill holes in free agency and in trades. My team got hit by the injury bug and being limited financially killed me.

Pacoheadley · 10-17-2012, 11:20 AM

Even if he is having a decline in his strikeout numbers, they are still solid, and he still has fantastic walk and home run rates. He looks like he is still a very good pitcher, and can hold on to those skills. If you can get him on that 3 year contract, I would do it in an instant. If he starts to struggle in his 2nd year, move him to the bullpen so he doesn't get 30 starts. Maybe if your team was struggling I would think differently, but your team looks pretty good.

EvilGenius · 10-17-2012, 11:36 AM

I'm heartless with my teams. I'd let him walk.

Age: 37

Last two years, 1.28 and 1.22 WHIP, .267 and .260 OAVE. Solid numbers for sure, but not elite. If he holds those numbers, he may be worth it. But unfortunately the trend is likely to accelerate in the wrong direction. You have to ask yourself which is more likely, (1) by the second contract year he'll mysteriously revert back to the 1.1 WHIP at the age of 39? or (2) posting a 1.4 WHIP and losing a starting spot, and having an $18M reliever?

Currently, his WHIP and OAVE are dominating. Wait for that to come back to earth before even thinking about negotiating.

If you're rebuilding, let him walk. You'll need that money for a younger super-star. This is too much of a gamble for a rebuilding, cash poor team.

At $15+ Million, I have never had any success with dumping a player on waivers. I wouldn't bank on that as a possible exit strategy if this goes bad.

Maybe this is the exceptionally rare pitcher who pitches effectively until he's 43 (I had one pitcher in my league do that, but only one). But at $18M per year, let someone else find out.

The Game · 10-17-2012, 02:13 PM

RchW what if you offer him a base of say 5-7 million and a few million in incentives? Will he even consider that?

OakDragon · 10-17-2012, 03:28 PM

I dunno. I think I'd pass. The 6 Stuff rating worries me, especially with the declining potential. If his stuff declines he's not likely to be much use (though you could still squeeze him in in the bullpen, I suppose.)

Honorable_Pawn · 10-17-2012, 07:05 PM

Edit

The Game · 10-17-2012, 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OakDragon

I dunno. I think I'd pass. The 6 Stuff rating worries me, especially with the declining potential. If his stuff declines he's not likely to be much use (though you could still squeeze him in in the bullpen, I suppose.)

I had a 5/8/9 guy win 25+ games 7 years in a row with an ERA in the low 3's. Granted he was also in his early 20's and not 38.

Honorable_Pawn · 10-17-2012, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Honorable_Pawn

Edit

What!??

Nobodys going to thank me for that Jeanyus insight?

RchW · 10-17-2012, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OakDragon

I dunno. I think I'd pass. The 6 Stuff rating worries me, especially with the declining potential. If his stuff declines he's not likely to be much use (though you could still squeeze him in in the bullpen, I suppose.)

Quote:

Originally Posted by EvilGenius

I'm heartless with my teams. I'd let him walk.

Age: 37

Last two years, 1.28 and 1.22 WHIP, .267 and .260 OAVE. Solid numbers for sure, but not elite. If he holds those numbers, he may be worth it. But unfortunately the trend is likely to accelerate in the wrong direction. You have to ask yourself which is more likely, (1) by the second contract year he'll mysteriously revert back to the 1.1 WHIP at the age of 39? or (2) posting a 1.4 WHIP and losing a starting spot, and having an $18M reliever?

Currently, his WHIP and OAVE are dominating. Wait for that to come back to earth before even thinking about negotiating.

If you're rebuilding, let him walk. You'll need that money for a younger super-star. This is too much of a gamble for a rebuilding, cash poor team.

At $15+ Million, I have never had any success with dumping a player on waivers. I wouldn't bank on that as a possible exit strategy if this goes bad.

Maybe this is the exceptionally rare pitcher who pitches effectively until he's 43 (I had one pitcher in my league do that, but only one). But at $18M per year, let someone else find out.

I'm tending towards letting him walk. I have some very good players approaching FA that should be signed. We just won the WS in 2053 and may not have the bats to get there in 2054. We will make the playoffs.

I probably have 6-8 weeks before he gets cranky about it.

soxfan34 · 10-24-2012, 12:59 PM

What did you end up doing RchW? Also one thing I thought of is do you have scouting on or off, and if so at what accuracy level? I'm wondering if this might affect the decision...

kehowey · 10-24-2012, 04:07 PM

How about 3-year at $19M per year - last year a team option - throw in all star and pitcher bonus money?

10-16-2012, 10:49 PM	#1
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK Posts: 15,629	My Dilemma This is maybe the best pitcher I've had on my team. He is declining and wants 5 years at very big bucks. My counter offer was 2 years at $18.9M $19.9M with a vesting option at $19.9M at 30 starts. He says "submit the offer", my problem is that I think I should move on. Heart or head? Attached Images __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

10-16-2012, 10:52 PM	#2
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK Posts: 15,629	His ratings. Attached Images __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

10-16-2012, 11:25 PM	#4
Righty Groove Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 264	I would keep him. I know I would end up hating to see him on another team. And the contract is short enough to be enticing. I mean, this is a game, afterall. And that 70%+ ground ball rate... Damn! On a more cold-hearted note, you should analyze where your team is at. Does keeping him force you to move a younger/similar player? What about next year? Are you on win-now mode? Have you won a lot recently (as in, you're not desperate to WIN NOW)? I've had a similar situation in my game. Great SP, nearing 300 wins, multiple award winner. He was younger, though, but was showing signs of decline and wanted a longer deal. I kept him and, alltough he wasn't worth it at the last year of contract, he retired never having played on another franchise. A franchise icon kind of guy Last edited by Righty Groove; 10-16-2012 at 11:31 PM.

10-17-2012, 01:12 AM	#7
Scottiedog All Star Reserve Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: In a van...down by the river! Posts: 745	If your in a slight rebuild mode it would be nice to snag a couple compensation picks for him. Plus, the 20 million would be handy I'm sure. However, if he's your ace and there are no clear cut replacements on the horizon it might be who of you to keep him on for a couple more years. At least till he get to 300 wins. __________________ President Ronald Wilson Reagan "Some people live an entire lifetime and wonder if they have ever made a difference in the world, but the Marines don't have that problem. " ******** Giovani della Casa "I cannot divine how it happens that the man who knows the least is the most argumentative”**

10-17-2012, 02:00 AM	#8
TGH-Adfabre Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 2,599	I would offer 6 years, $90 million. Year 1 $10 mil (Age 38 season) Year 1 $10 mil (Age 39 season) Year 1 $10 mil (Age 40 season) Year 1 $10 mil (Age 41 season) Year 1 $25 mil (Age 42 season) Year 1 $25 mil (Age 43 season) I am batting .500 with contracts like this. I have had 3 accepted. The first (Columbus "HGH" Bumpus) played out ok. The player lasted until the 1st salary increase but put up a low 3.00 ERA that season and then retired. He pitched until he was 42. The second ("King" Rupert Salomon) played until the same salary increase but had deteriorated drastically and received a CEI that ST. He rode out the season on the DL and retired. He was 38 when he retired and was only 3 years into the contract. The third is still active (Richard "The Mechanic" Honea), I had to have one nickname that referenced Charles Bronson . We shall see how it plays out. Sorry, I cannot get the links to work properly. If you are interested they are in our league history. I cannot get the player pages to link, only the History main page. All three can be found in Players tab in our League History, I am pissed that I cannot get the stupid links to work right. All three players are in the first 5 listed on the "Alphabet" page of the players tab. Good luck, Tom __________________ You mock me, therefore I am My wife Last edited by TGH-Adfabre; 10-17-2012 at 02:01 AM. Reason: Literacy Plus

10-16-2012, 11:20 PM	#3
WSoxfan86 Bat Boy Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 12	Based off of this, I'd keep him. His ratings seem high enough, and I'd have to imagine that he'd be extremely popular with your fans. Also it looks good when a pitcher wins 300 games with one team(or close to it, anyways)

10-17-2012, 02:23 AM	#9
The Game Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Inside The Game Posts: 30,937	How many years was the deal? I would sign him to a one yr deal, see if he can get those 300 wins then do a Carlton Fisk on him and waive him and hope he retires when he gets it.

10-17-2012, 09:33 AM	#10
jmount78 Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: North Carolina Posts: 304	I had a similar favorite, except he was a first baseman who was still raking the ball in his late 30's. I extended his contract for 5 years which really limited me financially. Ater the first year, he went from outstanding to ordinary and then average. It wasn't worth tying up my money and reducing my flexibility to fill holes in free agency and in trades. My team got hit by the injury bug and being limited financially killed me.

10-17-2012, 11:20 AM	#11
Pacoheadley All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Kincheloe, MI Posts: 521	Even if he is having a decline in his strikeout numbers, they are still solid, and he still has fantastic walk and home run rates. He looks like he is still a very good pitcher, and can hold on to those skills. If you can get him on that 3 year contract, I would do it in an instant. If he starts to struggle in his 2nd year, move him to the bullpen so he doesn't get 30 starts. Maybe if your team was struggling I would think differently, but your team looks pretty good.

10-17-2012, 11:36 AM	#12
EvilGenius Minors (Double A) Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 153	I'm heartless with my teams. I'd let him walk. Age: 37 Last two years, 1.28 and 1.22 WHIP, .267 and .260 OAVE. Solid numbers for sure, but not elite. If he holds those numbers, he may be worth it. But unfortunately the trend is likely to accelerate in the wrong direction. You have to ask yourself which is more likely, (1) by the second contract year he'll mysteriously revert back to the 1.1 WHIP at the age of 39? or (2) posting a 1.4 WHIP and losing a starting spot, and having an $18M reliever? Currently, his WHIP and OAVE are dominating. Wait for that to come back to earth before even thinking about negotiating. If you're rebuilding, let him walk. You'll need that money for a younger super-star. This is too much of a gamble for a rebuilding, cash poor team. At $15+ Million, I have never had any success with dumping a player on waivers. I wouldn't bank on that as a possible exit strategy if this goes bad. Maybe this is the exceptionally rare pitcher who pitches effectively until he's 43 (I had one pitcher in my league do that, but only one). But at $18M per year, let someone else find out.

10-17-2012, 02:13 PM	#13
The Game Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Inside The Game Posts: 30,937	RchW what if you offer him a base of say 5-7 million and a few million in incentives? Will he even consider that?

10-17-2012, 03:28 PM	#14
OakDragon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: San Jose, CA USA Posts: 3,494	I dunno. I think I'd pass. The 6 Stuff rating worries me, especially with the declining potential. If his stuff declines he's not likely to be much use (though you could still squeeze him in in the bullpen, I suppose.)

10-17-2012, 07:05 PM	#15
Honorable_Pawn Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Tampa Bay Posts: 6,407	Edit __________________ PBA Quickstart for OOTP Background Images Collection All PBA games broadcast live on Steam. Last edited by Honorable_Pawn; 10-17-2012 at 07:06 PM.

10-24-2012, 12:59 PM	#19
soxfan34 Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 471	What did you end up doing RchW? Also one thing I thought of is do you have scouting on or off, and if so at what accuracy level? I'm wondering if this might affect the decision...

10-24-2012, 04:07 PM	#20
kehowey Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: michigan Posts: 327	How about 3-year at $19M per year - last year a team option - throw in all star and pitcher bonus money?