IF BABIP is luck, this may be the unluckiest start to a season, ever

VanillaGorilla · 09-30-2012, 12:55 PM

Don't go to Vegas.

landru · 09-30-2012, 02:17 PM

Ziggy's motto: "Hit 'em where they are!"

olivertheorem · 09-30-2012, 07:56 PM

I don't think 0-for-23 is all that uncommon.

Honorable_Pawn · 09-30-2012, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by olivertheorem

I don't think 0-for-23 is all that uncommon.

I was about to disagree then I saw the career average.

And the .163 the year before.

scott1964 · 09-30-2012, 08:56 PM

Remind me not to draft him when I get that far.

jmount78 · 09-30-2012, 09:14 PM

Doesn't he play for the Astros?

VanillaGorilla · 10-01-2012, 12:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by olivertheorem

I don't think 0-for-23 is all that uncommon.

No, but of those 23, only 1 is a strikeout....hence my header.

hfield007 · 10-01-2012, 02:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by landru

Ziggy's motto: "Hit 'em where they are!"

This may be the hardest I have laughed in awhile on these forums.

andymac · 10-03-2012, 11:46 AM

BABIP is (almost entirely) luck for pitchers. Hitters' BABIP is most certainly a skill.

rpriske · 10-03-2012, 11:53 AM

I don't think it can be one and not the other.

(In fact I don't think either is completely luck...but neither are they completely NOT luck.)

jaxmagicman · 10-03-2012, 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andymac

BABIP is (almost entirely) luck for pitchers. Hitters' BABIP is most certainly a skill.

AND it isn't JUST luck for the pitcher either. The defense behind them have a lot to say with if it becomes a hit or not as well. Where did people come up with, it is just luck?

jaxmagicman · 10-03-2012, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rpriske

I don't think it can be one and not the other.

Well your thinking is wrong then. The pitcher has very little control (after the ball is put into play) whether it becomes a hit or not. The main factors are:

1. Hitters Skill
2. Defensive Skill
3. Luck
4. Ball Park Factors
5. Weather
6. Climate
7. Umpires
8. Fans rooting for his team.
9. Hot Dog Prices
10. Pitcher Skill

(Ok, I made some of those up)

rpriske · 10-03-2012, 12:06 PM

Oh we are not far off. I read some of the first studies on it, I think (was it Tango?), and the reason I am not willing to say it is ALL luck is because of the stuff in there about knuckleball pitchers and the like. The pitcher CAN have an effect on how solidly the hitter contacts the ball so it has more of an effect on the quality of the hit.

It is a factor, just not as large a factor as once was thought.

VanillaGorilla · 10-03-2012, 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andymac

BABIP is (almost entirely) luck for pitchers. Hitters' BABIP is most certainly a skill.

So, if you place a ball on a tee it will be the skill of the hitter that determines BABIP. The person who places the ball on the tee is just lucky or unlucky if the batter gets a hit.

So it doesn't matter if the pitcher figuratively places the ball on a tee to major league hitters, he is just unlucky when he gets hit hard, but it is the skill of the hitters that make the ball get hit hard. The pitcher that gets hit hard more often than his contemporaries is simply unlucky when when more BIP fall for hits.

Look, Mom! Science!

VanillaGorilla · 10-03-2012, 12:15 PM

After breaking his 0 for 29 skid to start his season, rejuvinated and inspired by fan interest across the globe, the Grundy Center, Ia, native has seen a rebirth to his career.

Hasbrook said he would like to thank the fans for their support. He loves his new nickname. He also expresses gratitude to Athletics management for trading away John Jaha.

andymac · 10-03-2012, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VanillaGorilla

So, if you place a ball on a tee it will be the skill of the hitter that determines BABIP. The person who places the ball on the tee is just lucky or unlucky if the batter gets a hit.

So it doesn't matter if the pitcher figuratively places the ball on a tee to major league hitters, he is just unlucky when he gets hit hard, but it is the skill of the hitters that make the ball get hit hard. The pitcher that gets hit hard more often than his contemporaries is simply unlucky when when more BIP fall for hits.

Look, Mom! Science!

Hope you enjoyed the meal, I'm not handing out seconds.

snepp · 10-03-2012, 02:43 PM

If there's a more misunderstood, or misused stat out there than BABIP, I don't know what it is.

BABIP is something that often benefits from a bit of good old fashioned scouting to accompany it.

rpriske · 10-03-2012, 03:02 PM

I generally only use it to see if a spike (upwards or downwards) is likely to be sustainable.

jaxmagicman · 10-03-2012, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VanillaGorilla

So, if you place a ball on a tee it will be the skill of the hitter that determines BABIP. The person who places the ball on the tee is just lucky or unlucky if the batter gets a hit.

So it doesn't matter if the pitcher figuratively places the ball on a tee to major league hitters, he is just unlucky when he gets hit hard, but it is the skill of the hitters that make the ball get hit hard. The pitcher that gets hit hard more often than his contemporaries is simply unlucky when when more BIP fall for hits.

Look, Mom! Science!

It would help if you read up on what BABIP is and the theory behind it. But putting the ball on the tee takes away the one very repeatable skill by the pitcher and it gives a great imbalance to one of the hitters greatest repeatable skills. So your question is pretty flawed in its premise at best and just plain stupid at worst.

Dreifort · 10-03-2012, 03:29 PM

"BABIP is mostly a function of a pitcher's defense and luck, rather than persistent skill."

09-30-2012, 12:55 PM	#1
VanillaGorilla All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 1,371	IF BABIP is luck, this may be the unluckiest start to a season, ever Don't go to Vegas. Attached Images

09-30-2012, 08:56 PM	#5
scott1964 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Denver Posts: 5,626	Remind me not to draft him when I get that far. __________________ This just feels more like waiting in line at the Department of Motor Vehicles. PETA.....People Eating Tasty Animals.

10-03-2012, 11:46 AM	#9
andymac Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Effingham, IL Posts: 5,725	BABIP is (almost entirely) luck for pitchers. Hitters' BABIP is most certainly a skill. __________________ June Madness: Links FTB: andymac

10-03-2012, 12:15 PM	#15
VanillaGorilla All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 1,371	Ziggy on a tear After breaking his 0 for 29 skid to start his season, rejuvinated and inspired by fan interest across the globe, the Grundy Center, Ia, native has seen a rebirth to his career. Hasbrook said he would like to thank the fans for their support. He loves his new nickname. He also expresses gratitude to Athletics management for trading away John Jaha. Attached Images

10-03-2012, 03:29 PM	#20
Dreifort Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 307	"BABIP is mostly a function of a pitcher's defense *and luck, rather than persistent skill." __________________ ________________________________________________ Coming soon!* Legendary Baseball League.... stay tuned!

09-30-2012, 02:17 PM	#2
landru Minors (Double A) Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 101	Ziggy's motto: "Hit 'em where they are!"

09-30-2012, 07:56 PM	#3
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	I don't think 0-for-23 is all that uncommon.

09-30-2012, 09:14 PM	#6
jmount78 Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: North Carolina Posts: 306	Doesn't he play for the Astros?

10-03-2012, 11:53 AM	#10
rpriske Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2012 Location: Spencerville, ON, Canada Posts: 27,779	I don't think it can be one and not the other. (In fact I don't think either is completely luck...but neither are they completely NOT luck.)

10-03-2012, 12:06 PM	#13
rpriske Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2012 Location: Spencerville, ON, Canada Posts: 27,779	Oh we are not far off. I read some of the first studies on it, I think (was it Tango?), and the reason I am not willing to say it is ALL luck is because of the stuff in there about knuckleball pitchers and the like. The pitcher CAN have an effect on how solidly the hitter contacts the ball so it has more of an effect on the quality of the hit. It is a factor, just not as large a factor as once was thought.

10-03-2012, 02:43 PM	#17
snepp All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,894	If there's a more misunderstood, or misused stat out there than BABIP, I don't know what it is. BABIP is something that often benefits from a bit of good old fashioned scouting to accompany it.

10-03-2012, 03:02 PM	#18
rpriske Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2012 Location: Spencerville, ON, Canada Posts: 27,779	I generally only use it to see if a spike (upwards or downwards) is likely to be sustainable.