Orcin's Story

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by 5cards

All of these strange moves can only make us wonder when the last time was that Mr. Orcin took an actual vacation away from Louisville. Clearly the stress and pressure are getting to him and he could use some rest and relaxation.

Jennifer, did you get that newspaper off Gordon's desk before he saw it? Good. If he reads this article, I might be getting a vacation sooner that I want.

And if I go, the next guy might trade Chris Brown. We wouldn't want that, now would we?

[beachbomer]

Nice 5Cards, this kind of thing just makes all dynasties better!

[Orcin]

2006 Final Pre-Season Predictions from BNN

The pundits at BNN predict that the Louisville Colonels will finish 108-54 and have a rematch with the Atlanta Flames in the 2006 World Series. This is a big change from their February prediction of third place, but I have learned to take that early one with a grain of salt.

Dallas and San Diego are favored to win the other Federal League divisions, with St. Louis as the wild card. New York and Pittsburgh are predicted to win the other Patriot League divisions, with a mild surprise pick of Cleveland as the wild card team.

Dennis Morgan and Chris Brown are listed among the Top Ten Federal League hitters. Robert Westaway, Chip Davidson, and (surprise) Ray Alexander are listed among the Top Ten pitchers in our league. Brian Wilson, the big free agent signed by Chicago, is conspicuously absent from that Top Pitcher list.

[Stromson]

All you need is for Wilson to have a down year, and then the Louisville press will have to find a new angle to work.

[Orcin]

April 3, 2006

Subject: Personal Message from the Owner – Season Expectation

Otto,

I have now decided on the goal for the coming season. After evaluating several factors, I have come to the conclusion that the team should play .500 ball.

Good Luck!
Henry Cooper

**********

Dear Otto,

I like the way that the club has been assembled this year. Our depth should help us stay fresh and survive the inevitable injuries. I believe that your investments in top coaching and player development have kept us head of other teams on a much lower budget. The family certainly appreciates the fiscal management that allowed us to bank $25 million last year.

I do hope you knew what you were doing when you fired Candelaria. It is true that the farm system had few prospects until the trades for Valdez and Hernandez last summer. Maybe the new direction in scouting will help us make better draft selections. However, I hope we don’t lose our connection to international discoveries in Latin America.

Let’s make the playoffs again this year and hope that we get hot in October.

Good luck!
Gordon Cooper
President and CEO

[Orcin]

April 3, 2006 (BNN)

Subject: Baseball America Top 100 Prospects

The season is about to start, so it's time to publish the annual Top 100 Prospects list. This year 22-year-old starting pitcher Jesús Águila of the Charleston Generals is the #1 prospect overall. Aguila was taken in the fourth round of the 2005 draft out of Cal State-Fullerton.

Here is the top 10:
1) SP Jesús Águila, 22, Charleston Generals
2) CF Ed Marks, 20, Orlando Sharks
3) CF Rafael Valdéz, 19, Louisville Colonels
4) SP Carlos Torres, 19, San Francisco Seals
5) SP Martin Hampton, 20, Orlando Sharks
6) CF José Cruz, 19, Cleveland Rockers
7) 2B Roberto García, 20, Charleston Generals
8) 1B John Wright, 22, Boston Bombers
9) LF Ramón Reyna, 19, Chicago Cougars
10) SP Wallace Trauttmann, 20, Pittsburgh Warriors

Orlando, San Francisco, and Charleston have the top-rated farm systems.

**********

A word about scouting: Aguila was taken in the FOURTH round last year! Does that tell you about how inaccurate pre-draft scouting is? By the way, Candelaria rated him 7/8/6 potential (4 stars) last May. He is rated 10/8/9 (5 stars) right now by my scout and OSA.

Our farm system has rocketed up to #6 with three Top 100 prospects. Valdez jumped from #33 all the way to #3. Juan Hernandez dropped from #25 to #31. Jorge Merced, third round pick in 2003, debuted on the list at #99. I credit our player development and minor league coaching with this success.

The second tier of prospects includes Juan Moran (#133), CF Gerald Blair in AA (#160), CF Manny Bueno in Rookie ball (#178), and SS Cristo Rodriguez. The latter two are products of that international discovery pipeline that Gordon mentioned. I am worried about that also.

[Orcin]

April 3, 2006

Opening day lineup vs. Milwaukee:

CF Pedro Dominguez
2B Mariano Gonzalez
1B Chris Brown
LF Dennis Morgan
RF Lorenzo Olivares
C Duncan Bland
3B Lucio Martinez
SS Cristo Rodriguez
P Robert Westaway

It’s strange to not see Pierre-Louis Simon at the top of the lineup. Get well soon! In the meantime, old dependable Lucio Martinez will hold down the fort. I am expecting big things from Dominguez now that he will finally get a chance to play full-time. I hope he can become a good leadoff hitter. Tom John will play every third day until someone wins the second base job outright.

The opening day payroll is #21 in the CBA at $95M (including personnel). The $146M budget ranks #14.

[Westheim]

I've been wondering for years whether Mr. Orcin has finally lost it, but now they are actually printing my thoughts on paper.

Firing scouts for breakfast - should have done that with the Raccoons after that whole Daniel Hall desaster.

[Orcin]

April 10, 2006

Subject: Week 1 Notes

Record: 4-2, .667, - GB
Position: 1st place (tied with Chicago)
Runs Scored: 34 – t6th in Federal
Runs Allowed: 24 – t4th in Federal
Defense: .743 – 1st in Federal
Power Ranking: 124.0, 6th in CBA
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 100/100

• Last week (4-2): 2-1 vs. Milwaukee, 2-1 vs. Atlanta
• 04/03: LOU 4, MIL 1 – Westaway 8.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K; Gonzalez 2-3, HR
• 04/04: MIL 6, LOU 5 – Luna 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 5 K; Gonzalez pinch-hit HR
• 04/05: LOU 8, MIL 6 – Morgan 1-3, HR, 2 RBI; Jones gave up a grand slam in the 8th; King SV(2)
• New York SP Jesus De La Cruz (2005: 18-7, 2.84) was diagnosed with a partial tear in his ulnar collateral ligament and is out for the year
• C Troy Daniels cleared waivers and was assigned to AAA creating a glut of AAA catchers so…
• C Mark Taylor was traded to Phoenix for right-handed MR Rob Bryant (6/7/7). Bryant has three options remaining and was assigned to AAA.
• The next set of games is a rematch of the World Series and I doubt that our fans will give the Flames a warm reception.
• 04/07: ATL 6, LOU 4 – Morgan 2-4, 2 HR (4), 2 RBI (5)
• 04/08: LOU 9, ATL 3 – Morgan 2-4, 2 HR (6), 6 RBI (11); Brown 3-4, 3 runs scored
• 04/09: LOU 4, ATL 2 – Morgan 2-4, DBL, HR (7), 2 RBI (13)
• Am I the only one wondering how the 2005 World Series would have gone if Morgan had been healthy?
• This week: 3 vs. Denver, 4 at Los Angeles


Here we go again department: St. Louis SP Octavio “Mr. Fragile” Lopez left in the third inning of his first start with elbow pain. He has elbow inflammation and rest has been prescribed. He will shut it down until the all-star break according to a team spokesman. Lopez signed a six-year $111 million contract with the Hawks in November 2002. He has pitched a grand total of 295 innings (45 starts) for them going into the fourth year of that deal. He is really good when he is healthy… but he is never healthy.

[Orcin]

April 17, 2006

Subject: Week 2 Notes

Record: 9-4, .692, - GB
Position: 1st place (1.5 game lead over Chicago & Milwaukee)
Runs Scored: 66 – 6th in Federal
Runs Allowed: 47 – 4th in Federal
Defense: .741 – 1st in Federal
Power Ranking: 129.6 (4th in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 100/100


• 5-2 last week, 2-1 vs. Denver, 3-1 at Los Angeles
• 04/10: DEN 3, LOU 1 – only four hits, left the bases loaded in the eighth
• 04/11: LOU 7, DEN 0 – Alexander 8.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 12 K
• 04/12: LOU 4, DEN 3 – Davidson 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 7 K
• 04/13: LOU 5, LA 4 – Jackson, Bland, Gonzalez, Rodriguez all with 2 hits
• 04/14: LOU 6, LA 4 – John 3-5, 2 RBI; WP: Westaway (3-0); SV: King (5)
• 04/15: LA 4, LOU 3 – Luna 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 2 K (0-3, 6.75 ERA)
• 04/16: LOU 6, LA 5 – Gonzalez 3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI; WP: Alexander (3-0)
• Several key position battles and evaluations continue…
• Lucio Martinez is hitting .341 and refuses to move over for younger talent
• Gonzalez and John are both playing very well and it is hard to choose a starter
• Cristo Rodriguez is hitting .256 and playing great at shortstop
• Olivares and Bland are off to very slow starts; I am not worried about Bland
• Antonio Luna has started slowly but I am hopeful it is just a mini-slump
• Next week: 3 at San Diego, 3 vs. St. Louis

[Stromson]

Whoa, 12 strikeouts for Alexander! Is that a career high?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Stromson

Whoa, 12 strikeouts for Alexander! Is that a career high?

No. Alexander and Ricardo Martinez hold the team record for strikeouts in a game with 14 K's. Both were accomplished in the 2003 season. Martinez also had two games with 13 K's. Luna and Davidson have also recorded 12 K's in a game.

[Orcin]

April 24, 2006

Subject: Week 3 Notes

Record: 13-6, .684, - GB
Position: 1st place (1.5 game lead over Milwaukee)
Runs Scored: 87 – t7th in Federal
Runs Allowed: 65 – 2nd in Federal
Defense: .724 – 2nd in Federal
Power Ranking: 131.2, 2nd in CBA
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 100/100

• 4-2 last week, 1-2 at San Diego, 3-0 vs. St. Louis
• 04/17: SD 3, LOU 2 – Davidson took a shutout into the ninth inning but Brooks blew the save
• Philadelphia LF Joe Holloway hit career home run #400
• Tom John agreed to a 4-year contract extension worth $8.8 million ($2.2M/year), buying out his arbitration years (estimate was $3M) and first year of free agency
• 04/18: SD 3, LOU 2 (10) – Morgan 2-2, HR (9), 2 RBI (16); Jones L (0-1)
• 04/19: LOU 4, SD 2 (10) – Dominguez 2-5, 2 HR (5), 2 RBI (11), GWRBI
• 04/21: LOU 7, STL 6 – Olivares 3-4, HR (2), RBI (8); bullpen allowed 4 runs
• Washington waived RF Terrence Banks and he was not claimed. It was tempting but his $7M salary is too high for a bench player.
• Lefty reliever Jesus Trejo signed a 3-year extension at $3.6 million ($1.2M/year), and thus we avoid arbitration with him (estimate was $1.5M)
• 04/22: LOU 3, STL 2 – Alexander 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K, W (4-0, 2.32)
• Dayton beat Fort Wayne 18-8; 2B Juan Luis Borgos and C Domingo Crespo each had 5 hits
• Chip Davidson’s next start was pushed back one day due to food poisoning. Aaron Wilkerson was able to start in his place on full rest because of an off day.
• 04/23: LOU 3, STL 2 – Wilkerson 8 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 5 K, W (2-0, 3.10)
• Dayton RF Gerald Blair (my #5 prospect) was named AA Player of the Week. He is batting .444 with 6 HR and 13 RBI in 12 games.
• The Denver series next week will kick off a 10-game, 3-city road trip
• This week: 3 vs. Indianapolis, 4 at Denver

[Sal, The Barber]

Sal cannot acknowledge the April 10 post. Jones did not give up a grand slam. Impossible.

And what is Fat Cat Brooks doing saving the game on 4/17--or not saving the game? Sal thought Brooks was #3 in line at least? Perhaps Mr. Orcin should continue his madness and fire Byrne so early in the season.

Can you tell Sal how Pedro Dominguez is looking? Sal is worried about this player and hopes he is not overmatched. Especially worried because he is starting the season in the leadoff spot.

So Mr. Orcin is pointing out all the wonderful things happening in AAA. Ahh, Sal knows Mr. Orcin too well. Which superstar does he covet? Which of his own stars is he getting ready to say goodbye to? Oh, the mystery and intrigue. But Sal suspects something is in the air.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Sal, The Barber

And what is Fat Cat Brooks doing saving the game on 4/17--or not saving the game? Sal thought Brooks was #3 in line at least?

King was tired.

Originally Posted by Sal, The Barber

Can you tell Sal how Pedro Dominguez is looking? Sal is worried about this player and hopes he is not overmatched. Especially worried because he is starting the season in the leadoff spot.

He is hitting .245 with a decent .347 OBP. He has the speed to bat leadoff but he might be better suited to the middle of the order. I just don't have a good alternative leadoff hitter until Simon comes back.

Originally Posted by Sal, The Barber

So Mr. Orcin is pointing out all the wonderful things happening in AAA. Ahh, Sal knows Mr. Orcin too well. Which superstar does he covet? Which of his own stars is he getting ready to say goodbye to? Oh, the mystery and intrigue. But Sal suspects something is in the air.

I can't sneak anything past you guys.

[Orcin]

May 1, 2006

Subject: Week 4 Notes

Record: 18-8, .692, - GB (18-8 in April)
Position: 1st place (2.5 game lead over Milwaukee)
Runs Scored: 127 – 4th in Federal
Runs Allowed: 84 – 2nd in Federal
Defense: .712 – 4th in Federal
Power Ranking: 132.6 (1st in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 100/100

• 5-2 last week, 2-1 vs. Indianapolis, 3-1 at Denver
• 04/24: IND 7, LOU 2 – Jackson and John each had three hits; 9 LOB
• 04/25: LOU 6, IND 2 – Westaway 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K, W (4-0, 1.89)
• 04/26: LOU 8, IND 0 – shutout by Luna 9 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 9 K, W (2-3, 3.94)
• Baltimore SP David Harrison recorded win #250 (career 250-132, 2.64 ERA)
• San Francisco SP Antonio Alicea will be sidelined for 13 months with a torn rotator cuff. The 25-year-old right-hander was 15-7 with a 2.79 ERA in 2005.
• Jeffrey Jackson (6-18, 2 DBL) will move into the starting lineup in place of Lorenzo Olivares (.219/.313/.397) for a few games
• Jackson will bat leadoff and Dominguez (.256/.344/.513, 6 HR, 12 RBI) will move to the fifth spot (thanks, Sal) vacated by Olivares
• 04/27: LOU 8, DEN 5 – Alexander 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 6 K, W (5-0, 1.89); bullpen allowed 4 runs; Bland, Martinez, and Bennett all had 3 hits
• RP Edgardo Garza agreed to a 4-year extension for $7.8 million ($1.95M/year), covering his arbitration years (estimate was $2.4M) and first year of free agency.
• 04/28: DEN 3, LOU 1 – Davidson 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 5 BB, 3 K, L (1-3, 3.18); we only got four hits
• Cristo Rodriguez is day-to-day with a mild abdominal strain. Our policy is to keep DTD players on the bench until healthy.
• 04/29: LOU 5, DEN 1 – shutout by Wilkerson 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 9 K
• 04/30: LOU 10, DEN 2 – RF Juan Gonzalez 4-5, DBL, HR, 4 RBI
• This week: 3 at Houston, 3 at Dallas


Our Player of the month for April was Dennis Morgan (.281/.390/.742, 13 HR, 26 RBI). Our Pitcher of the Month was….

Subject: Federal League Pitcher of the Month

Robert Westaway has been around the league long enough to appreciate the honor he received today. After going 5-0 in April, the 29-year-old Louisville hurler was named Federal League Pitcher of the Month. He fanned 31 in 46 innings, logged an ERA of 1.96 and allowed opponents to hit .216 against him.

[Orcin]

May 1, 2006

Subject: Miscellaneous Comments

I am still not happy with the leadoff spot. I made some noise about trading for a leadoff hitter in the off-season, but I could not bring myself to pull the trigger. The price was too high (Morgan or Bland or Davidson). I continue to work on it. I have a lot of high-value prospects and it may be time to part with a couple to fix a long-standing weakness.

I have locked up John, Trejo, and Garza to affordable 3-4 year deals, and reduced the arbitration risk for next season while saving money against the estimates. I see all three of these players as long-term keepers. I still have Gonzalez and Bennett on the list of arbitration-eligible players, but the future is less certain for them. The potential savings from a long-term deal is also much less because they are at the end of the arbitration cycle as opposed to the beginning for those other players. I might as well negotiate with Gonzalez and Bennett at the end of this season when I have another year of stats.

Wilkerson has been a real find. He is 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA in 5 starts. He was 8-14 with a 5.64 ERA last season for Chicago. Wilkerson is not yet eligible for arbitration, so I am pretty happy with how this is going so far. His case is looking a lot like Brian Wilson, but I am not trying to put that kind of expectation on Wilkerson. I would be thrilled with a competent fifth starter. In general, I think we are seeing that I have a very good pitching coach in Barry Melton.

Speaking of ex-Colonels pitchers, I know you are curious (I was) so here are updates on a couple of our former players after five starts:

Brian Wilson 37 IP, 2-0, 3.11 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .263 BABIP, 3.78 FIP
Pedro Castro 26 IP, 2-2, 5.88 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, .267 BABIP, 5.43 FIP

[Orcin]

May 8, 2006

Subject: Week 5 Notes

Record: 22-10, .688, - GB
Position: 1st place (1.5 game lead over Milwaukee)
Runs Scored: 155 – 4th in Federal
Runs Allowed: 101 –1st in Federal
Defense: .712 – 4th in Federal
Power Ranking: 128.8.1, 3rd in CBA
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 100/100

• 4-2 last week, 3-0 at Houston, 1-2 at Dallas
• 05/02: LOU 5, HOU 4 – Alexander 2-3, HR, RBI, 5.1 IP, 3 ER, W (6-0, 2.28)
• San Diego SP Russ Skiffington (3-0, 2.57) will miss 4 months with a bum shoulder.
• 05/03: LOU 6, HOU 0 – second straight shutout by Luna 9 IP, 2 H, W (3-3, 3.03)
• 05/04: LOU 5, HOU 2 – Davidson 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 3 K, W (2-3, 2.85)
• 05/05: DAL 4, LOU 0 – We ran into Ronald Austin (6-1, 1.90 ERA)
• RF Lorenzo Olivares (.238/.319/.440, 4 HR, 16 RBI) was injured and placed on the 15-day D/L. He will miss three weeks with an intercostal strain.
• Juan Moran (.366/.480/.878, 13 HR, 34 RBI in 22 games at AAA) was called up to replace Olivares on the roster.
• Jeffrey Jackson had already replaced Olivares in the starting lineup because we need a leadoff hitter. Dominguez needs to bat in the middle of the order.
• 05/06: DAL 4, LOU 2 – Westaway left the game after 6 innings, trailing 1-0. Blown save (blown setup actually) in the eighth by Brooks.
• Philadelphia SP Gilberto Huertas signed a six-year, $108 million ($18M/year) contract extension. He was the Patriot League Outstanding Pitcher for 2005.
• 05/07: LOU 10, DAL 3 – John 2-5, HR, 2 RBI; WP-Alexander (7-0)
• This week: 3 vs. Salt Lake City, 3 vs. Chicago; start of a two-week homestand

[Orcin]

May 8, 2006 (BNN)

Subject: Louisville, Cleveland Exchange Outfielders

The Colonels and Rockers have engaged in a little wheeling and dealing on their off-day. They concluded a trade that sends 23-year-old right fielder Juan Morán to Cleveland, along with 33-year-old catcher Júlio Nielo and 23-year-old minor league starting pitcher Cristóbal Arredondo, in exchange for 22-year-old right fielder Ron Hartman.

Hartman, who bats from the left side, played in 119 games for Cleveland last season, batting .306 with 5 home runs and 12 stolen bases. He had been sidelined so far this season with a hamstring strain, and was just activated on Friday. Hartman was selected by Cleveland in the first round of the 2001 draft out of high school (Los Angeles).

Moran was Louisville’s #4 prospect and had been tearing up AAA with a .366 average and 13 home runs in 22 games. He will take over Hartman’s starting job in right field for the Rockers. Nielo was Cleveland’s starting catcher last season and will return to the role now after signing a one-year contract with Louisville in the off-season.

**********

I finally satisfied my craving for a pure leadoff hitter with speed and a high on-base percentage. Cleveland had been using Hartman as their #3 hitter but I think he will be more productive in the leadoff spot. He has just over two years of major-league experience in total, so I will immediately begin work on a contract extension to keep him from going to arbitration this November.

My analysis showed Hartman to have the eighth-best on-base ratings in the CBA among major league players, and he is the youngest of those eight players. Three of those players have no speed at all and another is a power hitter, making Hartman the least expensive of the top four leadoff hitters (on paper) in the CBA.

Hartman shows excellent leadership skills with a very high work ethic and a very high desire to win. He will be a great fit on the team and in the clubhouse. He is an excellent defensive outfielder, and can play all three spots. He does not have home run power but his gap power and exceptional base running ability should lead to many extra-base hits. He is rated as a 10 in base-stealing with good overall speed.

I felt comfortable giving up Moran because I have LF Juan Cortez hitting .330 with 5 HR at AAA and Rafael Valdez developing at AA. My new scout, Jorge Enriquez, assures me that Cortez and Valdez are better prospects. Moran may be a starting major league outfielder, but so is Hartman and there was not much else in that deal for them. Troy Daniels (.306/.438/.597 at AAA) will be returned to the 40-man roster and called up to replace Nielo, who was only hitting .133 as our backup catcher. Arredondo was an expendable two-pitch AA starter headed for a very crowded AAA bullpen at Lexington.

[Westheim]

I may have missed it, but how is Slapme Thisdisaster (or something like that) doing?

This is a very good start for the team. If they play their usual past-All Star break form later, you should be able to post a 129-33 record here. No, no, no pressure here. Just saying.