Orcin's Story

[Orcin]

January 7, 2006

I attended the gala New Year’s Eve party at the home of Henry Cooper. I am not very good at these things, so I tend to work the room. And I do mean “work”. I look for people who want to talk baseball. I was happy to run into Ted Grant, who is always ready to talk business. You may remember Ted Grant – the agent for Silas Campbell.

Grant said, “I probably shouldn’t say anything but Silas has submitted paperwork to the league office to officially retire. His name will appear in the long list to be made public tomorrow.” I asked Grant about Campbell’s plans for the future, and Grant replied, “He loves the game and would like to stay in it somehow.”

I reminded Grant of my offer to employ Silas as a minor league coach, and made it clear that the offer still stands. “Why didn’t you call us? Henry would go ballistic if Silas ended up in another organization.”

Grant just winked and smiled. “You don’t really think I ran into you here by accident, do you?”

All it took was a few phone calls and several days for the lawyers to look at the contract. We will issue this press release today.



Subject: Silas Campbell Retires, Accepts Coaching Position

Former Louisville Colonels star Silas Campbell has announced his retirement and will transition to a new career in coaching. The 38-year-old Campbell will be the new hitting coach for the Evansville Aces, the Class-A affiliate of the Colonels. Current Evansville hitting coach Trent Hodge is leaving to pursue other opportunities.

Campbell spent 12 seasons in the majors, all with Louisville. He finished with a .275 career batting average and a career .872 OPS. He is the franchise’s all-time leader with 360 home runs and 932 runs batted in. He is also the franchise leader in games played with 1536.



Editor’s note: I used the commissioner mode to turn Campbell into a coach, giving him the same ratings as the previous coach (Hodge) – hitting “excellent”, and handling players of all categories “good”. Call me a cheater if you like, but I wanted this to happen for the story and I see no reason to have him be a bad coach. I overpaid him also, just so it would be fair and realistic. (His greed rating is “high”.)

[Tyke]

Excellent outcome for Silas Campbell - and for the Colonels, who I have always believed to be a classy organisation.

Still a great read, well done Orcin!

[Stromson]

Great news about Silas! This is always one of my favorite times of the baseball year, and Silas joining the coaching staff is just icing on the cake.

[Orcin]

February 2, 2006 (BNN)

Subject: CBA Pre-Season Begins

Preseason is the prelude to the regular season and begins today. Getting in shape will be the top priority for clubs across Continental Baseball Association. There will be exhibition games and plenty of playing time to evaluate newcomers. But the biggest decisions will surely be made off the field as Opening Day rosters are decided by management. There are sure to be a few surprises on each team in the league!

The Cleveland Rockers and Indianapolis Indians are the early candidates for the “most improved team”, while the Detroit Titans and Seattle Falcons appear to have taken a big step back. The defending Federal League champion Louisville Colonels are also listed among the off-season losers, with the biggest defection being star pitcher Brian Wilson who was signed by division rival Chicago.


Louisville Colonels Financial Report
Projected 2006 Revenue and Expenses

Projected revenues (based on last year) are $129M, excluding post-season games. The current $126 million expense projection (detailed below) would leave us with a small profit before post-season revenues, exactly where we want to be.

The current payroll estimate is $87.3M and the personnel salaries will be $7.9M for a total of $95.2M ($4.8M below the target). The draft budget has been set by the owner at $7M. The scouting budget is increased to $7M for the domestic scouting plus $5M in international markets (Panama and Costa Rica were added to the other markets that we already cover – Cuba, Mexico, Venezuela, Puerto Rico, and Dominican Republic). The player development budget remains at $12M (vs. league average of $8M).

[Orcin]

Pre-Season Transactions Log

01/02/2006: The Dallas Rattlers swapped 28-year-old shortstop Shawn Davis and $3,000,000 in cash for 30-year-old starting pitcher Jim Poole of the Atlanta Flames after what Atlanta officials would only characterize as "difficult" negotiations. Davis has 637 career hits with a .280 batting average, 104 home runs and 341 runs batted in. Poole has posted 35 victories and 42 defeats with a 4.06 ERA over his career.

01/06/2006: Indianapolis signed their former closer Hector De La Hoya to a three-year contract for $27 million ($9M/year) to be their new closer. De La Hoya has saved 98 games in his career with a 3.10 ERA.

01/19/2006: Feedback was positive in Boston today as the Bombers announced an agreement with former Los Angeles closer Gonzalo Rodríguez, one of the league's marquee free agents. The 28-year-old signed a three year contract for $27.6 million ($9.2M/year). Rodríguez has 134 career saves with a 2.83 ERA.

01/29/2006: The Boston Bombers continued to rework their bullpen, announcing the signing of 30-year-old reliever Dudley Thompson to a 3-year deal worth $26.7 million ($8.9M/year). Thompson has a career record of 41-25 with a 2.59 ERA and 113 saves.

02/07/2006: The Detroit Titans and shortstop Howard Archuleta reached agreement earlier today on a one-year contract for $4.6 million. Archuleta has a career batting average of .275 with 1,260 hits. The 34-year-old played for Louisville last season, hitting .327 in a platoon role at second base. (Note: That’s a pretty big raise over the $1M/year that I paid him for the past three seasons.)

02/26/2006: The Louisville Colonels signed former Cleveland starting catcher Julio Nielo to a one-year contract for $950,000. Nielo has one option remaining and may start the year in AAA as injury insurance. The 33-year-old switch-hitter has a career batting mark of.247 but slipped to .203 in 2005. No one questions his defense though.

03/03/2006: The Cincinnati Bobcats signed former Lexington 1B Alfredo Rivera to a three-year contract for $13.6 million ($4.5M/year). He was AAA player of the Year at age 32. I was lucky to keep him under contract for two years at the league minimum salary.

[Orcin]

March 4, 2006

Subject: Spring Training Begins Tomorrow

Many of you have been following the moves that I have made over the off-season, but some casual fans may not remember everything. So please allow me to refresh two of the key player decisions for my 2006 planning.

Starting pitcher Brian Wilson wanted a mega-contract that I could not afford. It was no surprise to me, nor was it a major concern since I had a succession plan in place. I had traded for his replacement, Juan Hernandez, last summer. This trade relied upon scout Fernando Candelaria’s report where he graded Hernandez at 5-star potential (8/10/10). I had a chance to deal Pedro Castro for a great prospect over the winter, and I checked Candelaria’s latest ratings on Hernandez before the deal. They were still 5-star 8/10/10.

All last summer, Candelaria kept promoting AAA outfielder Juan Moran as a future star. Moran was rated 5-star potential (8/10/9). I penciled in Moran as a starting outfielder in my off-season planning, and I traded Manuel Jaramillo in part because I couldn’t find room for him with Moran and Dominguez also in the mix with returning starters Morgan and Olivares.

So imagine my surprise this morning when I opened the package of updated spring scouting reports from Candelaria to find big downgrades in potential on many players:
• Juan Hernandez went from 5 stars to 4; stuff -3, movement -2, control -4 (now 5/8/6, i.e. questionable major league stuff and control)
• Juan Moran went from from 5 stars to 2; contact -2, power -3, eye -3 (now 6/7/6, i.e. definitely not superstar potential)
• Larry Marshall (1st round pick) went from 5 stars to 2; contact -4, power -1, eye -3
• Rafael Valdez (perfect 10 guy) went from 5 stars to 4.5; contact -1, power -2, eye -2
• Lorenzo Ortiz went from 5 stars to 1; contact -3, eye -4
• Jose Gomez went from 5 stars to 1; stuff -3, movement -1, control -2
• Herman Dodson went from 4.5 stars to 1.5; contact -3, power -1, eye -2

I could go on. Let’s summarize by saying my entire farm system went from really good to total crap overnight. Am I upset? You betcha! I understand that not every prospect will reach their potential, but I can’t deal with these complete flip-flops on half of my farm system. And by the way, don’t some prospects surprise in a positive way? I may have wasted most of those high picks in the 2004 draft. Someone has to pay for that mistake.

The die is cast. I have nothing to do about 2006 now except watch it unfold and make my own decisions about the roster based on performance. Personnel hiring season for scouts begins in October, but I can’t wait until then. I will never trust another scouting report from Fernando Candelaria. I won’t go through another draft with poor advice.

Jennifer, please see if Gordon Cooper is available now for an urgent meeting. Locate Candelaria and tell him we have a meeting in my office at 11:00 AM. And I’ll need a press release issued today, so set up a meeting with media relations at noon.

[Orcin]

Hi, readers… Jennifer BROWN here. *tee hee*

Wow, Mr. Orcin was mad! I’ve never seen him so upset, even that time when the espresso machine broke. What could have him so hot under the collar?

He threw these papers across the room before he stormed out to see Mr. Cooper… maybe that has something to do with it. It looks like gibberish to me… maybe you can make something out of it. All I can figure is that he hates the color red. Come to think of it, I have never seen him wear red.

[5cards]

I get the feeling that Louisville may have a vacancy for a Head Scout shortly... however, a word of caution... the Player Development report gets updated two key times - at the start of spring training and again at the start of the season. I would urge you to see how they look at the second date before throwing the Head Scout out on his ear.

(I've had this happen before... it hurts!)

[Stromson]

Finally! Candelaria has had you on a yo-yo for years, and it's about time he was shown the door (not that I ever want to see someone lose their job, but he seriously needs to go back to being a regular scout for a while).

[Orcin]

March 4, 2006 (cbatraderumors.com)

Subject: Possible Front Office Shakeup in Louisville

Sources close to the Louisville Colonels report that General Manager Otto Orcin is considering a change in his scouting department. Fernando Candelaria, Director of Scouting, is rumored to be on the hot seat. Sources tell us that there was a meeting this morning involving CEO Gordon Cooper, Orcin, and Candelaria. Allegedly, Candelaria left the premises after the meeting without speaking to anyone.

Firing a scout in spring training is highly unusual, especially one with four years and over $1 million left on his contract, leading to speculation that there may be a triggering event involved. Candelaria does not have a reputation for wild living, so it is unlikely that the morals clause in his contract was the reason. One source inside the Colonels inner circle reports that Orcin was upset with inflated scouting reports on key prospects.

There are very few scouts available for hire at this point in the season, so Orcin will be challenged to find someone with the ability of Candelaria if he should decide to make a change.

[Orcin]

March 5, 2006 (BNN)

Subject: Louisville Colonels Replace Scouting Director

The Louisville Colonels have dismissed their Scouting Director, Fernando Candelaria. He had been with the team since 2001. No reason was given for the change in direction.

The new Scouting Director will be Jorge Enriquez, who was most recently employed by the Indianapolis Indians as their chief scout. The Indians did not renew his contract when it expired last October. Enriquez has good contacts in Latin America, where the Colonels focus most of their scouting efforts. Enriquez is 51 years old and has eight years of CBA experience with Seattle and Indianapolis.

[Orcin]

Comments on the Scouting Change

Enriquez is rated average in every scouting category and his projection is neutral as opposed to “favor tools”. Maybe a neutral approach will give me more balanced and consistent information.

I immediately asked Enriquez to give me an updated scouting report on the entire Louisville organization, based solely on his personal knowledge. Unfortunately, he mostly agreed with Candelaria’s recent assessments. He says Hernandez may be a decent major league starter and Moran is likely to be a bench player. He graded Rafael Valdez, the top prospect obtained from Providence for Castro and Jaramillo, at 4.5 stars and 9/6/7. That’s not a perfect 10, but it’s still a good prospect and consistent with the BNN league ranking of #33.

I signed Enriquez to a two-year contract at about 25% of Candelaria’s salary. I will see how this year goes before deciding whether to keep him on or look for an upgrade after the season. The change does not affect my current roster decisions, which will be based on spring training stats, injuries if any, and my gut feel about the players.

A personal note:

I know some of you are wondering what the heck I am doing. There are a number of reasons for this change, besides the fact that it makes a good storyline. I was curious (thanks for the warning) about changing scouts in mid-season and how that would play out. I wanted to see if it was harder to use a scout with average ratings (straight 5’s) as opposed to very high ratings (Candelaria was 8-10 in all categories). Finally, I was tired of guessing how many rating points to subtract from a prospect or add to a journeyman to arrive at the future rating of the tools scout. I have always wanted to try a neutral scout vs. favor tools or ability. I’ll let you know my conclusion in a year or two. For now, a change of scouts in spring training could be a way to make things more interesting.

[5cards]

I may write a blog post on my blog in the future on scouting. Just as an FYI!

[baseballfanmas]

love your dynasty Orcin. I skimmed through it earlier, good stuff. That sucks about the injury problems that you were venting about. I hope you don't mind, I am using your week by week format for my MLB expansion dynasty. I liked the way you set it up. I will be doing a few things different, so its not as if I'm totally copying you.

[beachbomer]

This should be a very interesting season, following Moran, Hernandez, Valdez, Gomez and others!

[SkyeWalker]

Wow you always find great ways to spice up your dynasty! I was quite surprised by the seemingly rash decision, but it all made sense after you provided your reasons. I wonder how a mediocre scout would affect your drafting going forward.

[Orcin]

March 5, 2006 (BNN)

Subject: Spring Training Preview – Louisville Colonels (2005: 105-57 1st)

The Colonels are a solid team with a strong pitching staff and a balanced offense. There are no glaring weaknesses, only various levels of strength. There are signs of decay though, and the rest of the division is getting stronger. The loss of starting pitcher Brian Wilson could be a huge blow, and other star players are in decline and/or becoming injury-prone. This could be the year that someone else finally wins the Federal Midwest Division crown and Louisville misses the playoffs.

Key Acquisitions: SP Aaron Wilkerson, SS Russell Bennett, LF Slamet Nitisastro
Important Losses: SP Brian Wilson, CF Manuel Jaramillo, LF Hugh McGlone

Rotation: Robert Westaway (21-4, 2.57) was the league’s best pitcher last season. Ray Alexander (18-8, 3.78) has matured into a very reliable mid-rotation starter. Antonio Luna (10-4, 3.78) and Chip Davidson (13-12, 4.31) are still very young and have tons of potential. In order to fill the last spot, the Colonels will try to work the same turnaround magic on ex-Chicago starter Aaron Wilkerson (8-14, 5.64) as they did with Brian Wilson.

Bullpen: Closer George King heads up an outstanding bullpen featuring very talented youngsters Edgardo Garza, Bruce “Fat Cat” Brooks, and Nathaniel Jones. The bullpen was a huge question mark going into last season, but ended the year ranked #2. There is no reason to think that this group will be worse but they are young and unpredictable.

Catcher: Duncan Bland (.283/.357/.507, 29 HR, 78 RBI, and 20 SB) is one of the CBA’s best catchers. Troy Daniels is a very capable backup. The Colonels signed former Cleveland starting C Julio Nielo to provide depth and challenge for the backup spot.

Infield: Chris Brown (.300/.388/.545, 37 HR, 122 RBI) turned in another outstanding season and still seems to be on top of his game. Pierre-Louis Simon (.266/.319/.459, 24 HR, 84 RBI, and 48 SB) will apparently move to third base this year, making room for rookie Cristo Rodriguez at shortstop. This bumps 3B Lucio Martinez (.273/.330/.445) to the bench but he should still see plenty of playing time. Tom John (.298/.358/.397) will return at second base, challenged by Mariano Gonzalez. The Colonels also obtained SS Russell Bennett from Denver for bench help and to provide a safety net at shortstop.

Outfield: LF Dennis Morgan (.275/.341/.521, 29 HR, 89 RBI) is one of the best if he is healthy but veteran Slamet Nitisastro was signed in case he isn’t. Pedro Dominguez will replace Manuel Jaramillo in center field and the Colonels may gain offense but lose some defense in the exchange. Lorenzo Olivares (.263/.332/.508, 31 HR, 99 RBI) is back in right field. Veteran Jeffrey Jackson, Nitisastro, Juan Gonzalez (obtained from Charleston in a trade) and rookie Juan Moran will compete for the bench spots.

CBA Top-Rated Players: SP Robert Westaway, SP Chip Davidson
BNN’s Projected 2006 Finish: 84-78, 3rd in the Midwest Division

[Orcin]

2006 Spring Training Recap

• The spring training record was 13-9. The injury total was 2.
• Pierre-Louis Simon suffered a herniated disc and will be out 2-3 months. This is a serious injury because Simon is a star player and a team leader.
• Pedro Dominguez missed two weeks with a thumb injury but he will be ready for opening day.
• Most of the pitchers looked good and got their work in, so no concerns there.
• Aaron Wilkerson (3.75 ERA) won the fifth starter job over Juan Hernandez (8.74).
• Julio Nielo (.267) looked better as the backup catcher than Daniels (.125) who has to clear waivers to be demoted. I’ll cross my fingers and try it on cut-down day.
• Juan Gonzalez (.258) easily won the fifth outfield spot over Nitisastro (.125) and Moran (.167). They will have to earn their way back up here.
• Mariano Gonzalez (.375, 5 HR, 17 RBI), Russell Bennett (.355), and Cristo Rodriguez (.325) all had great springs while Lucio Martinez (.206) did not.
• Rodriguez will play shortstop. It is a very tough call for the other two infield spots but all four guys will make the team since Simon is on the D/L.
• Gonzalez and John will likely split time at second early in the year to see who starts hot. Ditto for Martinez and Bennett at third base.

Around the league:
• Dallas signed CF Eddie Payne to a six-year contract extension for $108 million $18M/year).
• Milwaukee ace SP Al Blackburn will be sidelined for most of the season with a broken bone in his elbow.
• Pittsburgh LF Harry Hall will miss five months with torn ankle ligaments. Teams never seem to learn that “fragile” means “likely to be injured”.
• There are 90 players on waivers, 23 pitchers and 67 position players. I would be interested in a young right-handed reliever with options. Fat chance.

[5cards]

Lousiville Daily Star
March 5, 2006

Editorial: Has Orcin Lost It?

Written by Staff Editor Adeline More

The news from our beloved Colonels today is full of chaos normally not seen at the start of the season. The word is that general manager Otto Orcin has fired long-time scout Fernando Candelaria in favor of former Indianapolis Indians scout Jorge Enriquez. Insiders report that the move was very sudden - so sudden, in fact, that the ink was drying on both Candelaria's pink slip and Enriquez's employment contract at the same time. Even more perplexing is that the organization gave no reason publicly for this sudden and sweeping change with Spring Training close at hand. It's enough to make one wonder if Orcin has actually lost it or if there is a method to his madness.

Back up to the end of last season. The Colonels lost the CBA World Series 4-2 to Atlanta. At the end of it all, Otto Orcin had the opportunity to lock up Brian Wilson, the workhorse of the rotation, to a deal. Wilson was 14-12, with a 3.77 ERA, but these numbers were quite misleading. Wilson had the second-highest number of quality starts on the team, second-highest number of complete games, the highest number of strikeouts, and the second-best WHIP in the Louisville rotation.

If Wilson's name sounds familiar, it is. Wilson won the 2005 Outstanding Pitcher award in the Federal League with a 21-4 with a 2.64 ERA the season before. He'd been signed before the start of the 2004 season to a meager $3.5 million for two years. Yes, only $3.5 million. It had to be one of the most underrated moves, yet it produced outstanding results for the Colonels. In his two seasons, Wilson was 26-16 with an ERA around 3.00. You'd think, given all of this, that Orcin would have moved to lock up Wilson for a few more years. Even with declining numbers, Wilson had proven he could still produce and every indication was that he wanted to stay in Louisville.

Yet Orcin, according to unnamed team sources, would not entertain offers made by Wilson's agent to remain in Louisville. He refused to consider offers that placed Wilson's value more in line with other players of his caliber. Despite the luxury of an increased budget that would have surely permitted Orcin to retain Wilson and help the club's rotation, the Louisville GM offered Wilson arbitration then let him sign in the off-season with division rival Chicago instead at a contract that is valued at $17.7 million per year. Consider, for a moment, that Figueroa went for $17.6 million per year, Dan Todd signed with Cincinnati for $17.8 million, and, by far the biggest of the signings, Roberto Campos went to Baltimore for almost $20 million a year. Surely the Colonels could have provided a reasonable contract with Wilson and kept him aboard to mentor a young rotation.

Then there was the debacle with the arbitration of Mariano Gonzalez. The team offered Gonzalez a low-ball offer of $2.8 million. Most analysts predicted that it would take at least $3.5 million to get a ruling in the team's favor. The Colonels paid the price, sadly, when the arbitrator awarded Gonazlez $4.1 million - $1.3 million more than the team's offer and $600k more than the analyst predictions.

Trading away promising pitcher Pedro Castro in return for 19-year old center fielder Rafael Valdez only exacerbates things further. Before requiring season-ending surgery, Castro had emerged as a quality arm in the rotation. At 22 he could be assured many years of high potential. What did this gain Louisville? Valdez is several years away from being able to play in the majors. Castro would have been a great arm to have pitching every fifth day. A rotation of Westaway, Luna, Alexander, Castro and Hernandez would have been potentially the strongest in the CBA.

All of these strange moves can only make us wonder when the last time was that Mr. Orcin took an actual vacation away from Louisville. Clearly the stress and pressure are getting to him and he could use some rest and relaxation.

(I found the whole situation too good to pass up writing a fictitious article on the matter. It's not hard to misconstrue some other events to build things up to the "more than a coincidence" level. )

[golander40]

WOW !
The Vultures are circling already !
Gets more real life by the day
Gil The Ancient One