Strasburg shutdown: Fair to teammates and fans? - Page 2

Goody · 08-17-2012, 09:48 PM

Longevity and resilience are part of your skill set as a pitcher. If he can't go the entire year, make him a reliever. If he has to get by on stuff that is too hard on his arm then he is better suited as a reliever. Or tone it back and put in more innings to save your arm like every other starter has to do.

Déjà Bru · 08-18-2012, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skipaway

His teammates could have been stuck with a team like Houston.

Quote:

Originally Posted by avwjase

I would have limited his action in the earlier months and saved him for the later months.

These are two astute comments and they are related, even if avwjase was not responding directly to Skipaway. In hindsight, getting Strasburg started up in May or June would have been ideal (avwjase). By now, he would be up to full speed and hitting a peak perhaps by playoff time, still under 160 total innings. The thing is, and perhaps the Nationals management should be a bit embarrassed by this, is that it looks like the Nats either did not think of this alternative or they assumed this would be another crappy season in DC and it would not matter (Skipaway). I don't know which is worse.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

This issue is about sports as a business.

Another astute comment, of course. "Gotta protect our (Nationals) / my (Strasburg) revenue stream!" An unfortunate fact, though, and it always rings true to me when people complain how money (that is, too much of it) has ruined professional sports. I am a romantic, believing in old-fashioned values, which is why I looked foolish in the Olympics thread, I suppose.

EDIT: But I ain't ever giving up.

Ragnar · 08-19-2012, 01:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skipaway

His teammates could have been stuck with a team like Houston. And what about the teammates that would have lost playing time if Strasburg pitched more?

As for the fans, the team is doing well, with over 98% estimated chances of making the playoffs. What exactly is the concern?

That they have a better chance at winning it all with him in the lineup. Which is the purpose of a season in the first place. If they get bounced out in a close series it will be one of the dumbest moves in baseball history.

RchW · 08-19-2012, 02:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Déjà Bru

Another astute comment, of course. "Gotta protect our (Nationals) / my (Strasburg) revenue stream!" An unfortunate fact, though, and it always rings true to me when people complain how money (that is, too much of it) has ruined professional sports. I am a romantic, believing in old-fashioned values, which is why I looked foolish in the Olympics thread, I suppose.

EDIT: But I ain't ever giving up.

But the public and the media can't have it both ways. General Managers and Owners will get criticized no matter what the decision. If Strasburg gets injured the same people and same media will be saying that they overworked him. The only strategy that makes sense is the one they've chosen because they can always say that Strasburg wasn't injured by their neglect.

This is somewhat similar to a study done about not kicking on 4th down in the NFL. It showed that going for the first down in many cases was the better strategy and clearly led to more wins. However most NFL coaches choose to kick as it is easily defensible vs not making the first down and perhaps losing because of it. I think it was a book called Scorecasting by Wertheim and Moskowitz.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/19/sp...urth-down.html

BaseballMan · 08-19-2012, 11:18 AM

I dont think that winning a championship proves it was the right decision.
Yes you play the season to put you in position to win a championship but that doesnt mean a player cant get injured anyway. A team still has to win with or without a star player.
Regardless of what should or should not have been done earlier in the season it only matters whats at stake now.
Is one championship worth a chance of longer success or a players career?
Then again maybe he can be used in a limited role. But wouldnt you rather have another player at full health?
I think shutting him down is the right decision as it could help his career and shows faith in the rest of your team's abilities.

Skipaway · 08-19-2012, 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ragnar

That they have a better chance at winning it all with him in the lineup. Which is the purpose of a season in the first place. If they get bounced out in a close series it will be one of the dumbest moves in baseball history.

They would have a better chance of going to the playoffs, but less chance of winning it all. That's the reason it's normal for teams to give starters more rest near the end of the season, even when they haven't completely secure the playoff bid.

And it'd not be the dumbest move in baseball history if they get bounced out. No decision is without chances, and to blame the unlucky breaks on the decision is dumb.

The best poker players making the best decisions all the time would still lose a lot. It doesn't mean those moves are dumb.

yougo1000 · 08-19-2012, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Goody

Why go by innings and not overall pitch count?

Exactly because you could have a 5-pitch innnig or a 50-pitch inning. If you average 20 pitches an inning and you throw 160 innings (unlikely but only for example) you would throw around 3200 pitches. But if you throw 10 pitches an inning for 160 innings you would throw about half as much. I think pitch count.

Strasburg has thrown 2,256 pitches this year. If you divide that by the number of innings he has thrown you get an average of 16 pitches an inning which in 160 innings it is 2,560. I think pitches thrown not innings have to do with arm injuries.

BaseballMan · 08-19-2012, 02:36 PM

I agree that pitchers should be able to last the season when healthy but this
a unique situation. It would be like a team refusing to put a player on the DL or
bringing a pitcher back too soon. Lasting a season when healthy is reasonable. Lasting
a season when injured or not 100% healthy is not something i
would expect. But i do wonder why the Nats didnt just replace him and let him rest and
take it slow in the minors. Is his record this year so overwelming that another pitcher could not have done the same?
Or did the Nats think he was healthy enough to last the season?

Déjà Bru · 08-19-2012, 02:56 PM

This has been a good debate. It will be fascinating if they do sit him down early AND they go deep into the playoffs without him. What if they win the WS? Wow.

Hey, how about Yankees versus Nationals in the Fall Classic? Wouldn't that be fun?

Oh, I forgot. Sorry.

(

)

Mecza · 08-20-2012, 12:32 PM

If OOTP can simulate this kind of scenario, I would personally shut him down as to protect against future production you can get from him. No family, fans, media, teammates, etc to worry about. You might make him

, but you can rationalize as saving him from himself.

That being said, no way he doesn't pitch in October this year unless he does get hurt again. He's a horse. There are development scouts that think there is NO WAY he doesn't pitch. He'll be monitored like a hawk, but to tell him and his teammates "sorry bro" will have massive ramifications. Why would he EVER want to stay in town when he hits free agency if management won't even let him play, let alone in the playoffs.

Skipaway · 08-20-2012, 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecza

Why would he EVER want to stay in town when he hits free agency if management won't even let him play, let alone in the playoffs.

Why not? Free agency is mostly about money, and a team that's willing to baby his arm is a huge positive, since that increase his chances of pitching even more years earning even more money.

Mecza · 08-20-2012, 09:10 PM

To be honest I can't say for sure. If I know anything about a young ballplayer's determination, it's that they want to win and participate meaningfully in doing so.

Chris Sale comes to mind as a comparable. Kenny Williams moved him to the bullpen after he complained of elbow discomfort after a start early this season. Experiment over. In interviews is appeared as if Sale understood why the decision was made. There was always concern over his stamina and ability to handle the workload. Later though, it was discovered that Sale was livid. He wanted to start and convinced management in doing so. He was drafted as a starter, but was in the back end of the bullpen for the White Sox in the past couple of years.

Currently, there has been a lot of rotation shuffling to give the kid a few extra days off and pushed back a few starts every once in a while. Kenny Williams, however, has never stated there was an innings/pitch limit. They were just going to monitor how he was doing and react from there. Strasburg (to my knowledge) has yet to complain of any arm trouble this year or make a trip to the DL. Can't say the same about Sale. Missed a start due to dead arm a few weeks ago and a couple early in the season due to reacting over his elbow discomfort. I would think Sale would harbor some ill feelings towards management for essentially denying him an opportunity to further prove himself as a starter when he was shown signs of great success.

I'm glad I don't have to make the decision though. I'm sure Strasburg wants to pitch, I'm sure his teammates want him to, and I'm sure the fans (for the most part) want him to as well.

Skipaway · 08-21-2012, 12:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecza

To be honest I can't say for sure. If I know anything about a young ballplayer's determination, it's that they want to win and participate meaningfully in doing so.

So where are all the players signing for fewer money with the Yankees just to win?

It's mostly about money. Only in NBA when the cap is severe do players just sign with teams to win, because the money would be about the same anywhere for a top player anyway.

Skipaway · 08-21-2012, 12:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecza

Chris Sale comes to mind as a comparable. Kenny Williams moved him to the bullpen after he complained of elbow discomfort after a start early this season. Experiment over. In interviews is appeared as if Sale understood why the decision was made. There was always concern over his stamina and ability to handle the workload. Later though, it was discovered that Sale was livid. He wanted to start and convinced management in doing so. He was drafted as a starter, but was in the back end of the bullpen for the White Sox in the past couple of years.

Currently, there has been a lot of rotation shuffling to give the kid a few extra days off and pushed back a few starts every once in a while. Kenny Williams, however, has never stated there was an innings/pitch limit. They were just going to monitor how he was doing and react from there. Strasburg (to my knowledge) has yet to complain of any arm trouble this year or make a trip to the DL. Can't say the same about Sale. Missed a start due to dead arm a few weeks ago and a couple early in the season due to reacting over his elbow discomfort. I would think Sale would harbor some ill feelings towards management for essentially denying him an opportunity to further prove himself as a starter when he was shown signs of great success.

It sounds like a player being livid because he's being assigned a role with lower earning potentials. A lower profile player would want to compile more stats before free agency for a big check. Strasburg isn't in the same situation. What Strasburg needs to avoid is to be another Prior, who definitely missed out on big checks.

Cod · 08-21-2012, 07:07 PM

At this point, Rizzo HAS to shutdown Strasburg when he hits the innings limit. Sports and business aside, after all the comments made by Mike Rizzo, if he doesn't shut Strasburg down, he will instantly lose credibility. As a GM in baseball, credibility is very important and can't afford to be lost.

Jason Moyer · 08-22-2012, 07:20 AM

My god, they're worried about his innings limit (which is a totally arbitrary thing, not supported by any credible research that I've seen) but they let him pitch 6 innings in a game with a 1 hour rain delay?

I wish I were a GM, because I think the two things I'd immediately implement organization-wide would be a 4-man rotation, and a 2 hour warmup-to-shutdown limit. We'd get worthwhile value from our starters while simultaneously keeping them from pitching for an extended period, the one thing that has the strongest correlation with shoulder wear (pitch counts do too, by association, but I highly suspect that's only because pitch counts naturally increase the longer a game goes).

Cod · 08-22-2012, 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jason Moyer

I wish I were a GM, because I think the two things I'd immediately implement organization-wide would be a 4-man rotation, and a 2 hour warmup-to-shutdown limit. We'd get worthwhile value from our starters while simultaneously keeping them from pitching for an extended period, the one thing that has the strongest correlation with shoulder wear (pitch counts do too, by association, but I highly suspect that's only because pitch counts naturally increase the longer a game goes).

A great thought, but have fun trying to convince the MLBPA to agree to that one without asking for significantly more money.

Jason Moyer · 08-22-2012, 09:20 AM

Why would the MLBPA have to approve managerial strategy?

Groucho Marx · 08-22-2012, 11:01 AM

Jordan Zimmermann was on a similar innings limit last year after the same surgery. This year he has no innings limit.

The same limitations on Strasburg are acceptable. Besides, isn't it better to preserve your team's ability to probably go deep in the playoffs multiple times over a stretch than throw everything into one "for sure" chance and still not win the World's Series?

After talking with Strasburg's father, Jim, his father tended to agree with Mike Rizzo's decison to sit his son.

From The Washington Post...

Stephen Strasburg shutdown debate masks the Washington Nationals’ true story - The Washington Post

On Saturday, Washington Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo ran into Stephen Strasburg’s dad, who was in Phoenix to watch the team play the Diamondbacks. Jim Strasburg braced Rizzo with the same question as the rest of the baseball world: What’s the deal with ending my son’s season — protecting his arm even though he feels perfectly healthy — because of some voluntary innings limit that Rizzo has chosen?

“Mr. Strasburg, don’t ask the question if you don’t want to hear the full answer,” Rizzo replied. “I want to hear it,” Strasburg’s father said.

The answer takes a long time. It includes decades of statistics on rehabilitation from Tommy John surgery and how annual “innings load increases” have led to disastrous re-injury in the past.

It includes the view of the surgeon, Lewis Yocum, who’s performed all the operations on Nats pitchers in recent years. It is Yocum’s belief that pitchers who break down from premature returns from elbow surgery — sometimes ruining their shoulders, and their whole careers, rather then their new elbows — don’t usually do so during the first big stress year but rather the following season. That would be 2013 in Strasburg’s case.

In the end, Rizzo gave Strasburg’s father a list of all of the smart people who disagreed with his innings shutdown limit. “Even my dad says, ‘Let him pitch,’ ” said Rizzo, whose father, Phil, is a lifelong baseball scout.
Then Rizzo said he told Strasburg’s father that the decision to shut his son down was “mine and mine alone.”

“It’s not on Davey Johnson or Mr. Lerner. It’s on me,” he said. “I know it may stain my reputation or my career. There’s no way it can ever be proved if I was right. The easy thing for me is just to do nothing. But I’m hardheaded. The decision was made five months ago because it was the best decision for Stephen and the Nationals. And nothing is going to change it.”

What was Jim Strasburg’s reaction? “He said, ‘That makes a lot of sense,’ ” Rizzo recalled....

Rest at the link.

I am a die-hard St. Louis Cardinals fan but, I would dearly love to see Washington, D.C. win their first World's Series since 1924. I think they have a better chance if they preserve their ability to make the playoffs more often. By putting the limits they have on both Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg, I believe they are doing so.

Groucho Marx · 08-22-2012, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jason Moyer

Why would the MLBPA have to approve managerial strategy?

Besides, as I pointed out in my post the Nationals did the same thing with Jordan Zimmermann last year. Nobody squawked then.

08-19-2012, 02:56 PM	#29
Déjà Bru Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Long Island Posts: 11,741	This has been a good debate. It will be fascinating if they do sit him down early AND they go deep into the playoffs without him. What if they win the WS? Wow. Hey, how about Yankees versus Nationals in the Fall Classic? Wouldn't that be fun? Oh, I forgot. Sorry. () __________________ - Bru

08-22-2012, 07:20 AM	#36
Jason Moyer Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 5,112	My god, they're worried about his innings limit (which is a totally arbitrary thing, not supported by any credible research that I've seen) but they let him pitch 6 innings in a game with a 1 hour rain delay? I wish I were a GM, because I think the two things I'd immediately implement organization-wide would be a 4-man rotation, and a 2 hour warmup-to-shutdown limit. We'd get worthwhile value from our starters while simultaneously keeping them from pitching for an extended period, the one thing that has the strongest correlation with shoulder wear (pitch counts do too, by association, but I highly suspect that's only because pitch counts naturally increase the longer a game goes). __________________ "I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech

08-22-2012, 09:20 AM	#38
Jason Moyer Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 5,112	Why would the MLBPA have to approve managerial strategy? __________________ "I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech

08-22-2012, 11:01 AM	#39
Groucho Marx Minors (Double A) Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Barsoom Posts: 148	Jordan Zimmermann was on a similar innings limit last year after the same surgery. This year he has no innings limit. The same limitations on Strasburg are acceptable. Besides, isn't it better to preserve your team's ability to probably go deep in the playoffs multiple times over a stretch than throw everything into one "for sure" chance and still not win the World's Series? After talking with Strasburg's father, Jim, his father tended to agree with Mike Rizzo's decison to sit his son. From The Washington Post... Stephen Strasburg shutdown debate masks the Washington Nationals’ true story - The Washington Post On Saturday, Washington Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo ran into Stephen Strasburg’s dad, who was in Phoenix to watch the team play the Diamondbacks. Jim Strasburg braced Rizzo with the same question as the rest of the baseball world: What’s the deal with ending my son’s season — protecting his arm even though he feels perfectly healthy — because of some voluntary innings limit that Rizzo has chosen? “Mr. Strasburg, don’t ask the question if you don’t want to hear the full answer,” Rizzo replied. “I want to hear it,” Strasburg’s father said. The answer takes a long time. It includes decades of statistics on rehabilitation from Tommy John surgery and how annual “innings load increases” have led to disastrous re-injury in the past. It includes the view of the surgeon, Lewis Yocum, who’s performed all the operations on Nats pitchers in recent years. It is Yocum’s belief that pitchers who break down from premature returns from elbow surgery — sometimes ruining their shoulders, and their whole careers, rather then their new elbows — don’t usually do so during the first big stress year but rather the following season. That would be 2013 in Strasburg’s case. In the end, Rizzo gave Strasburg’s father a list of all of the smart people who disagreed with his innings shutdown limit. “Even my dad says, ‘Let him pitch,’ ” said Rizzo, whose father, Phil, is a lifelong baseball scout. Then Rizzo said he told Strasburg’s father that the decision to shut his son down was “mine and mine alone.” “It’s not on Davey Johnson or Mr. Lerner. It’s on me,” he said. “I know it may stain my reputation or my career. There’s no way it can ever be proved if I was right. The easy thing for me is just to do nothing. But I’m hardheaded. The decision was made five months ago because it was the best decision for Stephen and the Nationals. And nothing is going to change it.” What was Jim Strasburg’s reaction? “He said, ‘That makes a lot of sense,’ ” Rizzo recalled.... Rest at the link. I am a die-hard St. Louis Cardinals fan but, I would dearly love to see Washington, D.C. win their first World's Series since 1924. I think they have a better chance if they preserve their ability to make the playoffs more often. By putting the limits they have on both Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg, I believe they are doing so. __________________ "I am opposing a social order in which it is possible for one man who does absolutely nothing that is useful to amass a fortune of hundreds of millions of dollars, while millions of men and women who work all the days of their lives secure barely enough for a wretched existence." - Eugene V. Debs - "If you've ever said this sentence, "I like him because he's a straight talker", you're as dumb as sh1t" - Jim Jefferies, on Trump supporters - Last edited by Groucho Marx; 08-22-2012 at 11:04 AM.

08-17-2012, 09:48 PM	#21
Goody Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: South Korea Posts: 3,530	Longevity and resilience are part of your skill set as a pitcher. If he can't go the entire year, make him a reliever. If he has to get by on stuff that is too hard on his arm then he is better suited as a reliever. Or tone it back and put in more innings to save your arm like every other starter has to do.

08-19-2012, 11:18 AM	#25
BaseballMan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 6,672	I dont think that winning a championship proves it was the right decision. Yes you play the season to put you in position to win a championship but that doesnt mean a player cant get injured anyway. A team still has to win with or without a star player. Regardless of what should or should not have been done earlier in the season it only matters whats at stake now. Is one championship worth a chance of longer success or a players career? Then again maybe he can be used in a limited role. But wouldnt you rather have another player at full health? I think shutting him down is the right decision as it could help his career and shows faith in the rest of your team's abilities.

08-19-2012, 02:36 PM	#28
BaseballMan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 6,672	I agree that pitchers should be able to last the season when healthy but this a unique situation. It would be like a team refusing to put a player on the DL or bringing a pitcher back too soon. Lasting a season when healthy is reasonable. Lasting a season when injured or not 100% healthy is not something i would expect. But i do wonder why the Nats didnt just replace him and let him rest and take it slow in the minors. Is his record this year so overwelming that another pitcher could not have done the same? Or did the Nats think he was healthy enough to last the season?

08-20-2012, 12:32 PM	#30
Mecza Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 268	If OOTP can simulate this kind of scenario, I would personally shut him down as to protect against future production you can get from him. No family, fans, media, teammates, etc to worry about. You might make him , but you can rationalize as saving him from himself. That being said, no way he doesn't pitch in October this year unless he does get hurt again. He's a horse. There are development scouts that think there is NO WAY he doesn't pitch. He'll be monitored like a hawk, but to tell him and his teammates "sorry bro" will have massive ramifications. Why would he EVER want to stay in town when he hits free agency if management won't even let him play, let alone in the playoffs.

08-20-2012, 09:10 PM	#32
Mecza Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 268	To be honest I can't say for sure. If I know anything about a young ballplayer's determination, it's that they want to win and participate meaningfully in doing so. Chris Sale comes to mind as a comparable. Kenny Williams moved him to the bullpen after he complained of elbow discomfort after a start early this season. Experiment over. In interviews is appeared as if Sale understood why the decision was made. There was always concern over his stamina and ability to handle the workload. Later though, it was discovered that Sale was livid. He wanted to start and convinced management in doing so. He was drafted as a starter, but was in the back end of the bullpen for the White Sox in the past couple of years. Currently, there has been a lot of rotation shuffling to give the kid a few extra days off and pushed back a few starts every once in a while. Kenny Williams, however, has never stated there was an innings/pitch limit. They were just going to monitor how he was doing and react from there. Strasburg (to my knowledge) has yet to complain of any arm trouble this year or make a trip to the DL. Can't say the same about Sale. Missed a start due to dead arm a few weeks ago and a couple early in the season due to reacting over his elbow discomfort. I would think Sale would harbor some ill feelings towards management for essentially denying him an opportunity to further prove himself as a starter when he was shown signs of great success. I'm glad I don't have to make the decision though. I'm sure Strasburg wants to pitch, I'm sure his teammates want him to, and I'm sure the fans (for the most part) want him to as well.

08-21-2012, 07:07 PM	#35
Cod All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Fort Worth, TX Posts: 1,182	At this point, Rizzo HAS to shutdown Strasburg when he hits the innings limit. Sports and business aside, after all the comments made by Mike Rizzo, if he doesn't shut Strasburg down, he will instantly lose credibility. As a GM in baseball, credibility is very important and can't afford to be lost.