Strasburg shutdown: Fair to teammates and fans?

[Déjà Bru]

Always looking for topics to stimulate discussion here; think this one might do very well.

The Washington Nationals have the best record in baseball, are the best team in D.C. in God knows how long, but they are planning to shut down their best starting pitcher, Stephen Strasburg, when he reaches 160 innings. That's only two or three more starts.

His teammates don't like the idea, nor do the fans for the most part. Yet the team is sticking to the plan.

Remember the Joba Rules? Tommy John does, as quoted in the second article below. The Yankees screwed around with this guy's mentality and development, doing what they did to him, and guess what? He got injured anyway!

If the Nats were out of the playoff hunt, then fine. Be cautious. But in a pennant race? How fair is it to baby a player in this situation? Unless he IS injured, a player owes it to his team, the fans, and the game to give it his all. Else, why is he here?

Well, what's your opinion?

Washington Nationals players question club's plan to sit Stephen Strasburg - ESPN

Tommy John blasts the Strasburg shutdown plan

[jaxmagicman]

This may turn out to be the new Moneyball. There are studies that show inning counts and pitch counts work, but nobody has done any pratical study on the matter like the Nats are doing right now. I have to hand it to the Nats. They are worried about the Kid's complete future and not just this year.

[Déjà Bru]

Originally Posted by jaxmagicman

This may turn out to be the new Moneyball. There are studies that show inning counts and pitch counts work, but nobody has done any pratical study on the matter like the Nats are doing right now. I have to hand it to the Nats. They are worried about the Kid's complete future and not just this year.

Yeah, except for this, in John's words, which really rings true with me:

"You've got a chance to win now. Now, I don't say you trash the kid, but you pitch him. And maybe somewhere down the road you skip his turn, you give his arm a little rest. But if I were a fan of the Nationals, I would be SO upset. That I've got a chance to be in the playoffs, maybe be in the World Series, and you're taking that away from me?"

Maybe it's old school, but that overrides caution in my book.

[Russ]

They have 4 other solid starting pitchers. They're not taking the playoffs or the WS(potentially) away from their fans. They will still make it. Zimmermann has been as good as him this year, as well. You have to think long term in baseball. It's the smart move.

[MorseMoose]

I heard this, and it may be in the article, but are they shutting him down for the playoffs (PLAYOOOOFFS?!?) too?

[jaxmagicman]

Originally Posted by Déjà Bru

Yeah, except for this, in John's words, which really rings true with me:

Maybe it's old school, but that overrides caution in my book.

Yeah, it is really old school. But again, there have been studies that say it is best, but nobody has ever put it into practice. I respect the Nats though. They had a plan and they are not caving because of the media.

[mpejkrm]

I think Jim Leyland said it best when he said pitch counts and innings limit were the results of greedy agents.

[Bluenoser]

Originally Posted by MorseMoose

I heard this, and it may be in the article, but are they shutting him down for the playoffs (PLAYOOOOFFS?!?) too?

Well, I see that as - if he's shut down around the beginning of Sep, then mid-Oct comes and you decide you're going to use him now. So the guy hasn't pitched for over a month, he's probably not on top of his game. Kind of like coming to ST and starting to get in game shape again. I'm not saying he'd be completely out of game condition, but not pitching for 5 - 6 weeks, he'd at least need some time to find his groove again, at least I'd think he would.

I'm really undecided as far as an opinion on the matter.

I can certainly see the Nats point, they're protecting an investment. If they keep pitching him and he blows out his arm, maybe surgery fixes it, maybe it doesn't. If it doesn't, then you suddenly no longer have the "Come and see Stephen Strasburg Pitch" marketing ploy for your team.

I can also see the players and fans point. It's very difficult to win consistently, no assurances you'll be back next season, even with a healthy Strasburg. Then you consider some of the veteran players on the team who may never get another shot at a ring. I can understand their displeasure with the decision.

At the end of the day though, this is not sudden unexpected news. The Nats said right from day 1 that he was being shut down regardless. So nobody can claim they were caught by surprise with the announcement.

It's a tough decision and I'm sure glad it isn't me that has to make it.

[TribeFanInNC]

I don't really follow the situation that closely (i.e. he is NOT on my fantasy team ). Has there been any talk of moving him to the bullpen, particularly for the playoffs? Seems like that would be one way of mitigating some of the risk, but still getting a useful cog of the postseason. I'm envisioning kinda the Alexei Ogando role of recent times for Texas or how the Yankees used Mariano Rivera when they had Wetteland. Also makes him feel useful.

They've had plenty of time to contemplate this. There had to have been another way. They should have made him a Sunday starter 8 weeks ago if they had decided on this path (which it sounds like they had).

I'd be upset as a fan of the team. Shutting him down at the end of August with an impending playoff run ahead is irresponsible, not so much to him but to the fans and rest of the team.

[legofarley]

I think this is a bad move for the Nats.

Since he had Tommy John Surgery he has not adjusted his pitching mechanics. If the Nats want him to stay healthy they should work with him in the offseason to change his mechanics and delivery so he's not stressing his elbow. But, in the eye of the organization, that might mean he loses some of his speed/stuff so they won't do it. Instead they're going to let him keep pitching they same way he always has. Since they are afraid of him getting hurt again, they limit his pitch count. Very irresponsible if you ask me.

[hayesb26]

Originally Posted by legofarley

Since he had Tommy John Surgery he has not adjusted his pitching mechanics. If the Nats want him to stay healthy they should work with him in the offseason to change his mechanics and delivery so he's not stressing his elbow. But, in the eye of the organization, that might mean he loses some of his speed/stuff so they won't do it.

This is a false statement.

As for the thread topic, I think it is a decision that management should take along with the player. Also, if this has been the plan the entire year, the organization went about it all wrong. Why not skip a start here and there over the course of an entire season, have him skip his start before/after the all star game, etc to ensure that he can make it through the season without crossing their threshold.

[Déjà Bru]

Originally Posted by hayesb26

As for the thread topic, I think it is a decision that management should take along with the player.

So, you're saying no consideration should be given to his teammates who have worked all their young lives to have even this glimmer of a chance at a championship and may never see one again? Also, no love for the fans who have not even seen a World Series in DC since 1933 much less a trophy (their one and only: 1924)? They count for nothing? Gee, I must be old school, for sure.

[cephasjames]

Originally Posted by hayesb26

This is a false statement.

As for the thread topic, I think it is a decision that management should take along with the player. Also, if this has been the plan the entire year, the organization went about it all wrong. Why not skip a start here and there over the course of an entire season, have him skip his start before/after the all star game, etc to ensure that he can make it through the season without crossing their threshold.

This is a little bit of what I was thinking. They did do a good job of holding down his innings when he did pitch - maybe they could've shot for 5 instead 6 before yanking him. But maybe they could've rested him for 5 or 6 days and just pitched him on those days and not hold him to a normal rotation spot. But they could've easily done the math and figured out how many games it woud've taken to stretch him through the whole season.

[Bluenoser]

Originally Posted by cephasjames

This is a little bit of what I was thinking. They did do a good job of holding down his innings when he did pitch - maybe they could've shot for 5 instead 6 before yanking him. But maybe they could've rested him for 5 or 6 days and just pitched him on those days and not hold him to a normal rotation spot. But they could've easily done the math and figured out how many games it woud've taken to stretch him through the whole season.

While I'm certainly not arguing this logic, because it is very sound, there will always be what ifs. We don't know that if they pitched him 1 in 6 or only 5 innings that he wouldn't hurt his arm being used that way. We don't know if the team would be in the same position they are now if they used their starters differently. Adding an extra inning of work to a bullpen every 5 days may not seem like much, but it adds to the wear and tear on the relievers over the course of the season.

[rudel.dietrich]

I don't really have an opinion one way or another about this. There is really not enough evidence either way to support the decision or say that it is the wrong decision.
There is no crystal ball to see which path would have be the best. And even down the road you can not even use hindsight since if he does end up missing starts you cannot see if it he would of been injured or not.

I am also not sure how you would study this. In order to use the scientific method you would have to have two groups of pitchers on Starsburgs age, injury history, build and amount of innings on his arms.
You could need both groups to coming off this surgery.

You are never going to get enough pitchers to do a proper study. So instead you have to go off incomplete data and small sample sizes.

Really tough decision for the Nationals.

[Skipaway]

Originally Posted by Déjà Bru

So, you're saying no consideration should be given to his teammates who have worked all their young lives to have even this glimmer of a chance at a championship and may never see one again? Also, no love for the fans who have not even seen a World Series in DC since 1933 much less a trophy (their one and only: 1924)? They count for nothing? Gee, I must be old school, for sure.

His teammates could have been stuck with a team like Houston. And what about the teammates that would have lost playing time if Strasburg pitched more?

As for the fans, the team is doing well, with over 98% estimated chances of making the playoffs. What exactly is the concern?

I don't like the move at all. If this was the plan and they were not going to deviate from it at all, I would have limited his action in the earlier months and saved him for the later months.

At this point, I'd keep rolling with him.

[RchW]

Damned if they do, damned if they don't. What do you think the headlines will be if they let him pitch and he blows the ligament again in his last regular season start? This issue is about sports as a business. In the past when players were not paid you could afford to run players out until they broke because your investment was minimal. In today's game that can still be done with marginal players. Think of relief pitchers back up catchers and back up OF all of them are on a revolving door each year.

I heard an ex player tell a story about Tampa Bay when discussing how players decide to report injuries. The gist of it was if you were a relief pitcher on Tampa Bay especially the marginal type, they would use you ruthlessly. If your arm got sore and you reported it, your ticket to the minors or DFA was punched.

I think anyone who complains about what Washington is doing should tell us what sort of multi-million dollar decisions they've made while at work. I've made decisions in the tens of thousands that had me close to throwing up.

[rudel.dietrich]

I always wanted to comment on Tommy John.

Who the **** cares what he thinks? Just because he was the first one to get the surgery does not make him some kind of authority on the procedure.

Pitching practices and 'old school' thinking back when he played are exactly what led to his injury and so many pitchers having short careers.

What medical school did he go to?

[Goody]

Why go by innings and not overall pitch count?