Orcin's Story

[Orcin]

2005 Spring Training Recap

• The spring training record was 14-9. The injury total was 2.
• Infielder Juan Aponte suffered a herniated disc during spring training and will be sidelined until the end of April.
• 2B Mariano Gonzalez was injured in the final spring training game. I had to wait for the diagnosis, delaying the final roster decisions for infielders. The news was not good. He has torn ankle ligaments and will miss 4-5 months.
• Time to use some of that budget surplus on a second baseman? Tom John could be the starter but then I lose his left-handed bat off the bench and some defense.
• I might chase a free agent middle infielder on a one-year contract, but I want to see who is available on the waiver wire at cut-down day before making a decision.
• Two rookies, 2B Ray Holliday and SS Guillermo Romano, temporarily made the team as the backup infielders.
• George King won the closer job over David O’Daniel. King has better stuff and will get more strikeouts. O’Daniel pitched pretty well also and will be the setup man.
• Brooks, Garza, and Jones will be the sixth-seventh inning guys. Brooks may get some chances to setup or close. Garza has more stamina and can go 2-3 innings.
• The battle for the final bullpen spots was pretty close. Lefty Jesus Trejo pitched very well to win one of them. Jesus Barajas got the final spot over Reed and Watson.
• It was very tempting to keep Pedro Castro as a long man, but it will be better for Castro in the long run to open the season in the AAA rotation.
• In mid-March, we claimed left-handed reliever Quincy White off waivers from Salt Lake City. He is 22 and rated at 3 stars by Candelaria. He has 3 options remaining and will be assigned to AAA.
• FYI… Salt Lake City CF Harry Hall will miss the 2005 season with a torn labrum.
• There are 101 players on waivers, 24 pitchers and 77 position players. I will examine this list very carefully. Salary is not an object as long as the contract is one year.

[5cards]

Originally Posted by Orcin

This dynasty just went over 20,000 views today, making it #20 all-time on the OOTP Dynasty forum. In case you are curious, it is #18 all-time in number of replies. What this proves is that I am a long-winded writer, and you people have a lot of free time and patience.

Seriously... thank you very much for continuing to follow this and participate with your comments. I enjoy doing it and I hope that season #5 meets your expectations. (Which I guess means a repeat.)

I am very impressed at how well your dynasty has done and continues to do. I would love to know the secret to longevity that you manage to enjoy so I can help make my dynasty better as well. I would say congratulations, but you don't want that - so all I will say is good luck this season and Go Colonels!

[Stromson]

I'm still coming to terms with the Fletcher trade, but overall it looks like a fairly productive offseason. I'm sorry I missed the age quiz, but I don't think I would've guessed correctly anyway (I thought Lucio Martinez was the elder child these days).

I'm a little worried about ol-Lucio actually. His production was down, and he's not getting any younger, and I'm hoping he can hang on for a few more years. He was such a great pickup off the waiver wire (I don't remember who dumped him, but I hope they still regret it). Do you have any prospects down on the farm that look like his future replacement, or is he safe for now?

What are the projects for the rest of the division looking like? It doesn't seem like the other teams are making any huge moves (except for Indy signing a 39 year-old of course).

[beachbomer]

Orcin,
Despite you not wanting congrates, I will say congratulations anyway. Your dynasty is what gave me the incentive to start my Reds dynasty in which I am at the all-star break of season two.


I look forward to reading your post each morning and still find things in your dynasty that I add to mine. I have thought my rotation was really good in my dynasty but after comparing it to your rotation, I think yours could be better..

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by 5cards

I would love to know the secret to longevity that you manage to enjoy so I can help make my dynasty better as well.

Ok, here's the secret. I started doing these a few years ago with another game, and now it has become the manner in which I play the game. I don't create and play any league without a dynasty report to go with it. It is a part of the game to me. I just document my play as I go in a Word document, edit it, and publish it. I write what I want to write, so it really doesn't feel like a "report", more like a journal or blog.

I do this because I really like doing it. I want to talk about my league, and it drives my wife and co-workers crazy. They look at me like I am from Mars. "You do realize these players don't exist, right?" But you guys actually encourage me. I come here every day to talk about my league, and you are willing to listen and even respond as your time permits. That's a big payback on the effort for me.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Stromson

I'm still coming to terms with the Fletcher trade

You aren't the only one. It was a big risk. Where's the fun in taking the safe road though. As a wise man once said, "If you want to make an omelet, you have to break a few eggs."

Don't say this outside of the barber shop, but this deal was motivated by money. I couldn't afford Fletcher, pure and simple. I had to make the best deal that I could before I lost control of him. I considered myself very lucky to get back a pitcher that should be roughly equivalent, much younger, and under club control. Fletcher will still be good for several years, and this trade will haunt me. I had no choice.

Originally Posted by Stromson

I'm a little worried about ol-Lucio actually. His production was down, and he's not getting any younger, and I'm hoping he can hang on for a few more years. He was such a great pickup off the waiver wire (I don't remember who dumped him, but I hope they still regret it). Do you have any prospects down on the farm that look like his future replacement, or is he safe for now?

Lucio is one of my favorites, too!

Every year, Candelaria tells me that he is the worst player in my lineup, and Byrne suggests that he bat eighth or someone else should be starting in his spot. Yet, every year, he becomes one of my most consistent and reliable players by the end of the season. He hits into more double plays than anyone on the team, yet he always seems to come up with the key hit and drives in nearly 100 runs.

Right now, Candelaria has him rated at 5 contact, 5 power, 6 eye. His summary is "grades out as a tick below average offensively". I'll take Lucio over the league average third baseman every time. OSA has him rated as 6/6/8, which seems more like his performance level. I have learned that Candelaria sometimes under-grades this type of player (he favors tools).

You have a great memory. Lucio was claimed off waivers from the Nashville Tigers on April 7, 2002. I liked what I saw after a month or two, and signed him to a four-year contract for $10.5 million. Thus, he is signed at a very affordable salary through 2006.

Lucio was drafted out of high school (Dover, NH) by Cleveland with their first-round pick (#20 overall) in 1993. He kicked around the minors for 6-7 years, ranking as high as the #75 prospect on BNN's 1998 chart. He was traded to Nashville for a prospect that has become Cleveland's regular catcher. They didn't really give him a chance and tried to sneak him through waivers to stash him at AAA (because he was out of options). I needed a third baseman at the time, and the rest is history.

I checked Nashville and they have used a few guys at third base over the last three years. The total production from that spot for them doesn't even approach what Lucio has given me.

Lucio Martinez 2002-2004:
452 games (151/year)
77 home runs (26/year)
272 RBIs (91/year)
.280 batting average
All-Star in 2002, 2003

Originally Posted by Stromson

What are the projects for the rest of the division looking like? It doesn't seem like the other teams are making any huge moves (except for Indy signing a 39 year-old of course).

Milwaukee signed a starting pitcher and a leadoff hitter, and they should be better. St. Louis is still good. Indianapolis is young (except for that guy) and could be a surprise team. Chicago is probably the last place team.

[Orcin]

2005 Final Pre-Season Predictions from BNN

The pundits at BNN predict that the Louisville Colonels will finish 104-58 and face the Atlanta Flames in the 2005 World Series. Phoenix and San Diego are favored to win the other Federal League divisions, with Seattle as the wild card. New York and Detroit are predicted to win the other Patriot League divisions, with Charlotte as the wild card team.

Dennis Morgan and Chris Brown are listed among the Top Ten Federal League hitters. Robert Westaway, Antonio Luna, and Chip Davidson are listed as the Top 3 pitchers in our league. Brian Wilson is conspicuously missing from that Top Pitcher list.

[Orcin]

April 4, 2005

Subject: Personal Message from the Owner – Season Expectation

Otto,

I have now decided on the goal for the coming season. After evaluating several factors, I have come to the conclusion that the team should play .500 ball.

Good Luck!
Henry Cooper

**********

Dear Otto,

The REAL expectation is to play one game over .500 in each round of the playoffs.

Good luck!
Gordon Cooper
President and CEO

[Stromson]

Poor Henry, his senility is starting to get the better of him. Hopefully he still remembers the World Series win. On another note, thank you for detailing Lucio's background! I love how much of an underdog success story he has become, and hopefully the fans appreciate him as much as we do.

[5cards]

Originally Posted by Orcin

I do this because I really like doing it. I want to talk about my league, and it drives my wife and co-workers crazy. They look at me like I am from Mars. "You do realize these players don't exist, right?" But you guys actually encourage me. I come here every day to talk about my league, and you are willing to listen and even respond as your time permits. That's a big payback on the effort for me.

Doesn't that... make us enablers?

No, I jest. I do appreciate it. I'm still trying to find a good format to present information without being too number-heavy and still tell a bit of a story. It's harder for me because I want so badly to keep going and keep going and immerse myself into the game but if I do then I forget to document things that happen. I know I need to work on story skills a bit as well... so many things to do and so little time to do it!

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Ok, here's the secret. I started doing these a few years ago with another game, and now it has become the manner in which I play the game. I don't create and play any league without a dynasty report to go with it. It is a part of the game to me. I just document my play as I go in a Word document, edit it, and publish it.

Which pretty much describes what I do and how I play as well.

[Orcin]

April 4, 2005 (BNN)

Subject: Baseball America Top 100 Prospects

The season is about to start, so it's time to publish the annual Top 100 Prospects list. For the second consecutive year, 20-year-old starting pitcher Keith “Silencer” Wilson of the Orlando Sharks is the #1 prospect overall. Wilson was the first overall pick in the 2003 first-year player draft.

Here is the top 10:
1) SP Keith Wilson, 20, Orlando Sharks
2) SP Wallace Trauttmann, 19, Pittsburgh Warriors
3) RF Ed Marks, 19, Orlando Sharks
4) CF Luis Gutiérrez, 22, Milwaukee Eagles
5) 2B Roberto García, 19, Charleston Generals
6) SP Carlos Pereira, 21, Washington Admirals
7) LF Eduardo Sánchez, 21, Philadelphia Firebirds
8) SP Juan Rodríguez, 20, Milwaukee Eagles
9) LF Júlio Sarlinas, 20, Cincinnati Bobcats
10) SS Zachary Parson, 18, Charlotte Knights

**********

Our farm system has plummeted to #27 of 30 with only two Top 100 prospects!

Pedro Dominguez dropped from the #3 prospect to #55. SP Pedro Castro went from #23 down to #65. SS Cristo Rodriguez dropped from #91 to #106 (so off the list). Edgardo Garza is no longer a prospect (because he is a major-league player now).

Candelaria has not changed his opinion on any of these guys. He still likes them all, and doesn’t seem the least concerned about the small number of prospects on the rankings. He says that list is irrelevant. That trophy in the case in the lobby is what really matters. I am still worried about the health of the farm system – trophy or not.

Many of our young players are playing in the majors – Bland, Morgan, Davidson, Brooks, Garza, etc. Our team is very young, so we don’t need a pipeline of young talent behind them. Indeed, that would actually be a problem because we would eventually be forced to expose them to waivers or Rule 5. We have time to develop the draft picks from last season, and pick up a few more prospects this year and next. When we finally need the replacements for our current stars, these young players will be there and ready.

This logic and an espresso made me feel a little better about the low ranking – for the moment.

[Orcin]

April 4, 2005

Opening day lineup at Indianapolis:

SS Pierre-Louis Simon
CF Manuel Jaramillo
RF Lorenzo Olivares
LF Dennis Morgan
1B Chris Brown
C Duncan Bland
3B Lucio Martinez
2B Tom John (replacing Gonzalez)
P Robert Westaway

That’s very close to the lineup that opened last season. Let’s hope the end result is similar to last season also.

There was absolutely nothing on the waiver wire of interest so I spent the day working the phones, looking for a second baseman. I offered our AAA first baseman Alfredo Rivera and/or Hugh McGlone, but there were no takers. I would have to part with one of my young stars to get a major-league caliber middle infielder with a decent contract. I am not that desperate because I have Tom John and Aponte will be back in May.

I went after our former second baseman Rodney Wright, currently available as a free agent. Wright is the one available player that could beat out John as the starter, but he was his old greedy self. He refused to listen to any offer of a one-year contract, even the outrageous amount that I proposed as a last-ditch effort. His agent said that Wright had multi-year offers and my one-year deals were an insult. He also said Rodney hoped that I rotted in hell after trading him to Salt Lake City and almost ruining his career.

So I turned to our old reliable backup infielder, 33-year-old Howard Archuleta. He is still available as a free agent. There were a couple of other guys out there that might have been as good, but better to go with the devil that you know. Archuleta is reliable in the field, makes good contact at the plate, has decent speed, and bunts very well. He is a good late inning defensive replacement for any of the infielders. The best part is that he gleefully accepted a one-year contract at $1 million, and will report to the team later this week as soon as he clears his physical.

By the way, for those that are interested (and we all are), Silas Campbell is still looking for a job. He is asking for a one-year contract at $1.2 million.

[Stromson]

So there's no interest in negotiating Silas down to a million and signing him as a backup outfielder? I know you've taken a hard-line stance with him, but it seems like there could be worse things.

[Westheim]

Old Silas will starve to death. Noooooo.

[Sal, The Barber]

Originally Posted by Orcin

April 4, 2005

Opening day lineup at Indianapolis:

SS Pierre-Louis Simon
CF Manuel Jaramillo
RF Lorenzo Olivares
LF Dennis Morgan
1B Chris Brown
C Duncan Bland
3B Lucio Martinez
2B Tom John (replacing Gonzalez)
P Robert Westaway

Sal does not consider the counting to be a strong suit. That is why at his shop he deals only in the dollars and not in the cents. But Sal sometimes has to do the accounting (one time, Sal played the best trick, ignoring the IRS but stuck his ex-wife with the fine; for this, Sal will certainly burn in hell, but it seemed worth it at the time).

But Sal digresses. Is not Morgan, Brown, and Bland the Colonels best hitters? Is it funny, then, that they bat 4-5-6? Or is Sal mistaken? Is Simon or Olivares considered in the top 3? Sal always thought that the best hitters hit in the #2 and #3 spots in the lineup and then perhaps #4. Mr. Byrne is either oblivious or prudently unconventional. Sal is not sure which, but Sal cannot always tell a 3 from a 8.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Sal, The Barber

Is not Morgan, Brown, and Bland the Colonels best hitters? Is it funny, then, that they bat 4-5-6? Or is Sal mistaken? Is Simon or Olivares considered in the top 3? Sal always thought that the best hitters hit in the #2 and #3 spots in the lineup and then perhaps #4. Mr. Byrne is either oblivious or prudently unconventional.

It's hard for me to ignore the IRS story, but I will.

Louisville Colonels 2004 Leaders in OPS:
Brown .974
Jaramillo .833
Olivares .815

2004 Leaders in Runs Created (per 27 outs):
Brown 8.57
Jaramillo 6.45
Olivares 5.98

Of course, Morgan was hurt all year, and he would have been in the group if healthy. So, you are right about the counting, Sal. You were just wrong about the guys. For all of the griping that I did about Olivares and his batting average, his slugging and OBP were quite high (he walked 78 times). You were close with Bland though; he was fourth in both categories.

Simon leads off because Byrne is stubborn and insists on batting his best base stealer leadoff, even though he does not have the best on-base percentage (or even close).

Now... Silas Campbell... sorry boys, there is no room on the roster for him. He can't play the outfield anymore, and Jackson/McGlone are too valuable off the bench. Don't try to make me feel guilty. Henry already did that. I offered Silas a job and it would have been a good career move. His pride got in the way and he needed to follow his own path. I'll keep you posted on his progress.

[Orcin]

April 11, 2005

Subject: Week 1 Notes

Record: 4-2, .667, 1 GB
Position: 2nd place (behind St. Louis)
Runs Scored: 23 – t13th in Federal
Runs Allowed: 20 – t2nd in Federal
Defense: .733 – 3rd in Federal
Power Ranking: 124.0, 5th in CBA
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 90/100

• Last week (4-2): 2-1 at Indianapolis, 2-1 at Phoenix
• The opening day payroll is #23 in the CBA at $80M (including personnel). The $1M extra salary for Archuleta won’t change the ranking. The $136M budget ranks #19.
• 04/04: LOU 3, IND 0 – opening day shutout by Westaway 9 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K
• 04/05: LOU 3, IND 0 – Luna 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 9 K; King SV(1)
• Rodney Wright signed a 4-year contract worth $21M with Dallas. His agent wasn’t bluffing.
• 04/06: IND 10, LOU 7 (12) – Bland 3-4, HR, 4 RBI; King BS(1)
• A blow for contender Atlanta … ace SP Curt Blair will miss 4 months with a ruptured finger tendon on his throwing hand.
• San Francisco’s young star CF Jonathan Bailey ruptured his Achilles tendon. We know how long that takes to heal.
• 04/08: PHX 3, LOU 1 – C Rick Spence hit a 3-run HR off Wilson in the fourth
• 04/09: LOU 2, PHX 1 – Alexander 8 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K; King SV(2)
• Los Angeles signed former Louisville pitcher Ron Sims to a one-year contract for $610K. He will join their starting rotation.
• Atlanta lost their #2 starter, Conceicao Pontes, for four months with shoulder inflammation.
• 04/10: LOU 7, PHX 6 – Olivares 2-4, DBL, HR, 4 RBI (grand slam)
• This week: 3 vs. Denver, 3 vs. Cincinnati


Atlanta should really be ready to trade for a top pitcher. They have the top-rated center fielder in the CBA, Angel Quintero. He draws 100 walks per year, steals 60-80 bases per year, and has a lifetime on-base percentage of .390. He has also won a Gold Glove in center field, and has made the All-Star team four years in a row. He is an elite leadoff hitter. I have wanted an elite leadoff hitter for years.

Atlanta will trade Quintero for Brian Wilson, Manuel Jaramillo, and minor-league starting pitcher Mike Yates. Quintero is signed for three more years at $13-14 million per year. Jaramillo and Wilson make $9M between them, so I would have to also dump McGlone before next season to make the money work. It is tempting but it would mean moving Castro into the rotation. I would have no starting pitching depth after losing two pitchers off my 40-man roster, and no budget room to sign free agents. I’ll pass… too risky.

[Sal, The Barber]

"I Am No Country Boy" King blows his 2nd save opportunity. This sends Sal to his tea leaves to foresee the future. How will this King do under the Louieville pressure?

Mr. Luna, on the other hand, endears himself to his new fans with a 1-hitter in his debut. Sal doesn't not even think of consulting tea leaves after that.

Sal is not exactly a bulldog; he can let this go. But it is more like a flea on Sal's ear. He would like Mr. Orcin's opinion. Does Mr. Orcin think Jaramillo or Oliveras would be a better leadoff hitter in this lineup?

Sal really does not have the problem with Simon there, and Sal does not like to agree with Byrne. But Sal thinks Brown should hit #3 not #5. Can Sal outrun Mr. Brown? Sal does not remember how fast Brown is. Now, now, of course, no one can outrun Sal to the hot dog line. Sal means under a normal circumstance. Sal brings this up because the #5 spot is often the spot for the double play. Sal suggests a little faster runner there--Jaramillo or Oliveras perhaps? the one who doesn't bat #2.

[Kevdog1020]

Love what you're doing with your dynasty. Although I haven't recently had the time to keep up with you (been busy with my own dynasty, which was inspired by you), I try to read a little every chance I get. Keep up the good work!