Orcin's Story

[Orcin]

April 26, 2004

Subject: Week 3 Notes

Record: 12-6, .667, - GB
Position: 1st place (3 game lead)
Runs Scored: 85 – 8th in Federal
Runs Allowed: 65 – 1st in Federal
Defense: .691 – 8th in Federal
Power Ranking: 131.0, 2nd in CBA
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 91/100


• 6-0 last week, 3-0 vs. Baltimore, 3-0 at Chicago
• 04/19: LOU 1, BAL 0 – Gonzalez wins it with RBI double in bottom of ninth
• 04/20: LOU 2, BAL 1 (10) – Wilson 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 8 K
• 04/21: LOU 7, BAL 2 – Jaramillo & Morgan hit 2-run homers off Jorge Figueroa in the first inning; Alexander 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 7 K (2-0, 1.83)
• 04/23: LOU 5, CHI 4 – Martinez 3-3, BB, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 3 R; De La Hoya SV (3)
• 04/24: LOU 3, CHI 1 – Fletcher 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K; Sanders SV (4)
• 04/25: LOU 6, CHI 2 – Olivares 2-3, 2 DBL, 2 RBI, BB, SB
• The bullpen was very sharp in the Chicago series. It should be a more consistent group with Sanders, De La Hoya, Garza and O’Daniel getting the late inning work.
• Manuel Jaramillo (.351/.415/.561) will be moved up to second in the lineup for the next series to take advantage of his hot bat.
• Lexington (AAA) CF Pedro Dominguez was 5-5 including a 2-run HR in a game this week. He is batting .319 with 3 HR in his first 11 games.
• Evansville (A) catcher Edward Henderson has a torn posterior cruciate ligament and will miss the rest of the season. He was our #1 draft pick in 2002.
• It’s a battle between the top two teams in the power rankings, each with seven game winning streaks, as we travel to Houston to play the red-hot Stars next.
• This week: 3 at Houston, 4 vs. Seattle

[Orcin]

Thank you for the time investment. I should publish a synopsis soon to help people catch up.

Originally Posted by Stromson

I'm a lifelong baseball fan, and know most of the sabremetrics pretty well, but all the backroom GM stuff has been utter Greek. Did you learn all of this just from playing over the years, or do have some recommended reading material?

Mostly, I learned from playing and making mistakes.

I live in Houston, so I always think "what would Ed Wade" do, and then I try to do the opposite.

[beachbomer]

I like many others just caught up after a couple weeks of reading. I am in my 3rd year of my fictual league and keep trying to figure a way to write a dynasty. You have given me hope after I have started and deleted many attempts.

Keep this going please!!!

[Orcin]

April 28, 2004

Subject: Morgan Injury Report

Dennis Morgan did not start last night’s game against the Stars. Louisville was leading 12-2 in the ninth inning when Byrne brought Morgan in to pinch-hit for the pitcher. It was his worst decision of the season.

Morgan walked and Pierre-Louis Simon lined a double into the gap. Morgan tried to score from first. His slide was awkward and he was out. But that was not the bad news. He didn’t get up and instead was obviously in a lot of pain. I knew it was bad when they brought out the cart. I didn’t sleep.

The diagnosis came in this morning. Morgan suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon and he is done for the season (5-6 months) after 20 games. It was terrible news, but there is no use in crying over spilt milk. We will play on. Morgan hit .307 with 54 HR and 144 RBI last year, so he won’t be easy to replace.

The options to replace Morgan:
• Hugh McGlone – no LH pinch-hitter on the bench if he is in the lineup
• Silas Campbell – defensive liability; must play < 135 games due to vesting option
• Pedro Dominguez – best AAA prospect; won’t call him up to sit on the bench
• RF Dale Harris – signed to minor league contract at AAA; very good defensively
• 2B Tom John – Gonzalez can play LF but that combination weakens the defense
• Sign a free agent – a few available as good as Harris, none close to McGlone

I will bring Dale Harris up from AAA to replace Morgan on the roster. Campbell will start 3-4 days per week. McGlone or Harris will play the other days, and Harris will replace Campbell in the outfield for defense if we have a lead.

I’ll watch the progress of Dominguez at AAA carefully – he is Plan B.

[golander40]

Have to see his "Card"--- But experience tells me--go to plan B---and never look back---Stick with him even with a slow start--many upsides,to bringing him up,and letting him play.If I remember correctly,I said stick with Morgan,when he first came up.
At the worst--you'll find out what you have.----possibly weakening other positions to fill the void--not good idea.---My humble opinion (As if I ever had a "Humble" opinion)
Gil The Ancient One

[Orcin]

May 3, 2004

Subject: Week 4 Notes

Record: 15-10, .600, - GB (14-9 in April)
Position: 1st place (1.5 game lead)
Runs Scored: 124 – 6th in Federal
Runs Allowed: 109 – 5th in Federal
Defense: .690 – 7th in Federal
Power Ranking: 109.0 (6th in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 90/100


• 3-4 last week, 2-1 at Houston, 1-3 vs. Seattle
• 04/26: LOU 9, HOU 6 – Martinez 2-5, DBL, HR, 5 RBI
• 04/27: LOU 12, HOU 2 – Bland 3-5, DBL, HR, 3 RBI; Morgan was injured
• 04/28: HOU 6, LOU 5 (11) – Houston’s Jeff Johnson 5-5, DBL, RBI
• Errors by Martinez and Bland led to 3 unearned runs in the finale vs. Houston, ending the winning streak at 9 games
• 04/29: SEA 14, LOU 2 – Seattle scored 6 in the 8th off reliever Micah Reed including a grand slam by Manuel Fernandez
• 04/30: SEA 12, LOU 4 – Sims 4 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 4 K; 3 errors by Louisville
• April Player of the Month: CF Manuel Jaramillo .303/.400/.474, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 3 SB
• April Pitcher of the Month: SP Ray Alexander 3-0, 2.03 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
• 05/01: LOU 6, SEA 2 – Wilson 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 9 K (2-1, 2.75)
• 05/02: SEA 2, LOU 1 – Moreno (SEA) 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 3 K (3-1, 5.45)
• Ex-Colonels SS Russell Bennett is #2 in the Federal League in hitting at .361
• Ex-Colonels SP Jim Poole (4-1, 2.37) was Federal League Pitcher of the Month
• Ex-Colonels CL Mike MacIntosh leads the Patriot League with 9 saves
• San Diego lost ace SP Kenny Lewis to a partially torn ulnar ligament (11 months)
• San Diego starting C Felix Cruz is out with a broken bone in his elbow (8 months)
• This week: 4 vs. Sacramento, 3 at Seattle

[Orcin]

May 10, 2004

Subject: Week 5 Notes

Record: 18-14, .563, - GB
Position: 1st place (tied with St. Louis)
Runs Scored: 160 – 4th in Federal
Runs Allowed: 141 – t6th in Federal
Defense: .692 – 7th in Federal
Power Ranking: 98.3, 11th in CBA
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 90/100

• 3-4 last week, 1-3 vs. Sacramento, 2-1 at Seatlle
• 05/03: SAC 6, LOU 5 – Campbell 1-3, HR, 3 RBI
• Chip Davidson was activated from the D/L; Micah Reed was optioned back to AAA
• 05/04: SAC 8, LOU 0 – Elder (SAC) 9 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K
• 05/05: SAC 4, LOU 3 – Davidson gave up a 3-run HR in the 1st inning (no rehab, so was it rust from the D/L?)
• 05/06: LOU 8, SAC 3 – Brown 2-4, DBL, HR, 5 RBI; Olivares 2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
• 05/07: LOU 10, SEA 3 – McGlone 3-4, DBL, HR, 3 R
• Juan Aponte (.214/.227/.357) was optioned to AAA and Tom John was called up as a LH bat off the bench.
• 05/08: LOU 3, SEA 0 – Westaway 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 4 K (3-2, 3.26); Sanders SV (6)
• 05/09: SEA 8, LOU 7 (13) – Simon 2-4, 2 HR, 2 BB, 5 RBI
• Evansville (A) CF Ramon Rodriguez (2002 draft, round #2) hit for the cycle.
• Milwaukee SP Alfredo Gonzalez is out for the year after surgery to remove bone chips in his $10 million, 40-year-old elbow.
• This week: 3 at Sacramento, 3 at St. Louis


McGlone (.341/.383/.614) is hot and has to be in the starting lineup, at least vs. right-handed pitching. He is making a drive for a big arbitration award and highly motivated. Silas Campbell (.237/.275/.421) will assume his familiar position on the bench near the bat rack – hoping to get a pinch-hit appearance – but he will still play against tough left-handers.

[Orcin]

May 17, 2004

Subject: Week 6 Notes

Record: 23-15, .605, - GB
Position: 1st place (1 game lead)
Runs Scored: 201 – 3rd in Federal
Runs Allowed: 163 – 5th in Federal
Defense: .688 – 10th in Federal
Power Ranking: 113.9 (3rd in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 90/100

• 5-1 last week: 3-0 at Sacramento, 2-1 at St. Louis
• 05/10: LOU 6, SAC 1 (10) – Brown 2-5, HR, 3 RBI; Brown’s HR led to 5 in the 10th
• 05/11: LOU 8, SAC 4 – Martinez 2-3, DBL, 3 RBI
• 05/12: LOU 6, SAC 2 – Simon 2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, SB
• St. Louis has won 6 in a row and we are tied for the division lead. Our top three starters are set to go in this big series.
• 05/14: LOU 11, STL 9 – Jaramillo 3-5, TPL, HR, 2 RBI; wind was blowing out today
• McGlone suffered a shoulder injury and will be sidelined for a week – no D/L stint.
• 05/15: LOU 8, STL 2 – Fletcher 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 8 K
• 05/16: STL 4, LOU 2 (13) – Davidson 7.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 9 K; Sanders BS (1)
• This week: 3 at Indianapolis, 3 vs. Houston


We continue the cycle of good week / bad week. Fortunately, the good week came at the right time to win a series against our division rival.

[Orcin]

CBA STANDINGS
Friday, May 21, 2004




We will see if St. Louis hangs in the race this year. They had a similar fast start last year only to fade in the summer.
The other Federal League divisions are led by the usual suspects.




New York and Baltimore have overcome slow starts to claw back into the race in the Atlantic. Washington is a surprise team.
Philadelphia and Charlotte have ridden hot streaks to big leads in their divisions. The Firebirds have won 15 in a row.

[Orcin]

LEAGUE LEADERS
Friday, May 21, 2004





I can’t believe Harry Hall is a Triple Crown candidate.

Candelaria sure missed that one. Looks like he just needed playing time.

[Orcin]

LOUISVILLE COLONELS
Friday, May 21, 2004





The team is performing well in all aspects of the game except the bullpen and the defense. Both are familiar problems. The issue with the defense is coming from a couple of unexpected places.

Last year’s Gold Glove shortstop, Pierre-Louis Simon, leads the league in errors at the position and doesn’t seem to be covering as much ground. Lucio Martinez at third base has a hole in his glove too. I am not making any changes in the left side of the infield. I just have to hope for the law of averages to step in and bring them back to normal.





Ray Alexander is quietly having a breakout season. Brian Wilson is certainly earning his $1.5 million. I didn’t expect my fourth and fifth starters to be the most reliable. I think the bullpen is not as bad as it seems. Most of their BABIP figures are well over .300. Rookie Edgardo Garza has been particularly impressive.

McGlone is filling the hole in left field very well. If he keeps this up, we could end up with a premier offense again and he could end up with a handsome arbitration award. Simon is making up for his defensive lapses with a great season at the plate. Chris Brown is heating up and a strong season from him will help overcome the loss of our cleanup hitter (Morgan). Rookie Mariano Gonzalez is having a nice freshman season. Manuel Jaramillo has been a pleasant offensive surprise and his defense remains exceptional.

The bench is very weak at this point, but I don’t see much help at AAA. I need Dale Harris on the roster for defense, so I have to put up with his anemic offense. Surely he will improve a little. Silas Campbell has been decent in his limited playing time. Tom John might have found a niche career as a pinch-hitter based on his very small sample of work so far. He may see more time at second base if Gonzalez cools off.

[Orcin]

May 24, 2004

Subject: Week 7 Notes

Record: 25-19, .568, 2 GB
Position: 2nd place (behind St. Louis)
Runs Scored: 225 – 3rd in Federal
Runs Allowed: 189 – t5th in Federal
Defense: .687 – 11th in Federal
Power Ranking: 103.3 (9th in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 90/100

• Last week (2-4): 1-2 at Indianapolis, 1-2 vs. Houston
• 05/17: IND 4, LOU 2 – Jaramillo 2-4, DBL; we did not get the key hits in this game
• 05/18: LOU 9, IND 4 – Brown 2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
• 05/19: IND 7, LOU 1 – poor fielding and lack of timely hitting cost us this series
• Philadelphia beat Charlotte 5-4 to snap Charlotte’s 12-game winning streak and extend Philadelphia’s win streak to 15 games.
• McGlone suffered a setback and won’t be available for another week. There’s no point in D/L’ing him now and there’s no obvious replacement at AAA anyway.
• 05/21: HOU 3, LOU 2 – De La Hoya gave up the winning run in the ninth.
• 05/22: HOU 8, LOU 5 (11) – Davidson allowed 2 unearned runs on error by Simon, bullpen gave up the other 6 runs
• 05/23: LOU 5, HOU 0 – shutout by Wilson (5-2, 2.58) 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K
• RF Lorenzo Olivares will be out for two weeks with ankle soreness.
• This week: 3 at Sacramento, 4 at Denver; start of a two-week road trip


The injury to Olivares leaves me with only three healthy outfielders (four when McGlone returns in three days). I have no AAA outfielders worthy of a spot on the 40-man roster (to Gil: Dominguez is really not ready – he is hitting .240 at AAA). I do have infielders at AAA that could help in the majors. The situation calls for thinking outside of the box to effectively use the available resources.

I will recall Juan Aponte from AAA to replace Olivares, put Matt Silver in the starting lineup at shortstop, and move Pierre-Louis Simon to the outfield until Olivares returns. Simon can play all three outfield spots well and has a good arm, so he will be fine in right field. Silver will be outstanding at shortstop even though he probably won’t hit much. The offense would also suffer with Dale Harris in the lineup, and this alignment gives us a better overall defense.

[Sal, The Barber]

Moving See-moan to the outfield is clever, Mr. Orcin. This is just the kind of move that reminds Sal that you are a capable man. Your track record is very good and so Sal is forgiving about not bringing Louieville a World Series title. That and all the free tickets.

But Sal cannot live on ballpark hot dogs alone. Although he would like to try. Mustard is one of the four food groups, n'est pas?

Sal is taking some time off and going in search of the brook trout and the rainbow trout, and he is taking along the flies. You will see the sign in the shop window. The boys will have to use the benches outside. Feel free to use Sal's grill, but do not burn the shop down this time.

[Orcin]

May 30, 2004 (BNN)

Subject: Colonels, Titans Finalize Deal

It won't turn either team into an instant contender or provide a huge franchise shakeup, but the Louisville Colonels and Detroit Titans finalized a trade today. Louisville will send 25-year-old minor league third baseman Hayden Key to the Titans, while the Colonels will receive 30-year-old reliever Matt Head. "We think this is a deal that will help out both teams and we're glad to get it done," said the Colonels general manager. The trade is expected to be officially completed later today with the players to join their new ball clubs by the end of the day.

This year Head has chalked up a 2.08 ERA with 4 saves. In 19 relief appearances he has put up a 4-2 won-lost mark and struck out 26 batters in 26 innings. Head was on the trading block because Detroit is in rebuilding mode after a disappointing start. Louisville will take on the remainder of Head’s $4.5 million salary for 2004 with no commitment for 2005. The Colonels hope that the veteran closer will boost a bullpen that ranks near the bottom of the league this season. Reliever Jesus Barajas was optioned to AAA to make room for Head on the roster.

**********

Key was expendable. He was not good enough defensively to overcome his mediocre bat. His best position is second base and I have a lot of talent there ahead of him. He doesn’t hit for enough power to be a third baseman and doesn’t have the range to play shortstop. He would soon be out of options and I would be forced to waive him anyway.

Veteran readers may remember that Head, a former Colonels closer, was traded to Milwaukee for 1B Chris Brown prior to the 2001 season. Head’s contract was expiring and he got a big free agent contract with Houston during that off-season. He only stayed two seasons in Houston, and was among the late signers this year with Detroit at a 50% discount from his previous contract.

I used the remainder of my budget room on this trade in a desperate attempt to cobble together a respectable late-inning bullpen. Head has outstanding stuff and movement but has always struggled with his control. He is another quality arm for Byrne to call on, and maybe that will be enough to support our great starting pitching. Head will share setup duties with De La Hoya.

[Westheim]

I thought I'd never make it to here, but I finally caught up with you.

Great read, no doubt about that. You seem to be prone for near misses here, while my teams seem to be prone to play .300 ball. We both have to suffer, I guess.

Keep it going. I'll be there. And may get a haircut, too, while I'm here.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Westheim

I thought I'd never make it to here, but I finally caught up with you.

Thank you. I should be passing out medals for catch-up reading.

[Orcin]

May 31, 2004

Subject: Week 8 Notes

Record: 30-21, .588, 0.5 GB
Position: 2nd place (behind St. Louis)
Runs Scored: 256 – 2nd in Federal
Runs Allowed: 212 – t3rd in Federal
Defense: .687 – 12th in Federal
Power Ranking: 108.9 (6th in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 90/100

• Last week (5-2): 2-1 at Sacramento, 3-1 at Denver
• 05/24: LOU 7, SAC 6 (13) – Bland 1-4, HR, 3 RBI
• 05/25: LOU 5, SAC 3 – Westaway 7 IP, 2 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 5 K, also 2-3, DBL, RBI
• 05/26: SAC 2, LOU 1 – not much to say when you only get 3 hits
• 05/27: LOU 4, DEN 3 (11) – Brown & McGlone hit back-to-back homers with two out in the ninth to send the game to extra innings.
• 05/28: LOU 7, DEN 1 – Wilson 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 9 K (6-2, 2.27)
• 05/29: DEN 6, LOU 3 – Bland 2-3, 2 RBI, he is finally heating up
• 05/30: LOU 4, Den 2 – Brown 2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI; Westaway 8 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 5 K (5-3, 3.42); Sanders SV (12)
• This week: 3 at Seattle, 3 at Milwaukee


Bland has been in a sophomore slump all season. Byrne has moved him around in the lineup to no avail. He is the catcher of the present and future, so Byrne has decided to just bat him eighth and not worry about his offense. He has started to hit in that spot, so maybe he was putting too much pressure on himself. Or maybe it is coincidence.

[Winnipeg59]

This is a fantastic thread/dynasty Orcin. Thank you for doing it.

Not only does it capture the suspense of the day-to-day game play, but the thought process on the Managerial/GM side is brilliant. And, if I may quote from a previous post...

Originally Posted by Stromson

...or do have some recommended reading material?

IMHO - I, for one, am reading it! Keep going and good luck "this year".

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Winnipeg59

This is a fantastic thread/dynasty Orcin. Thank you for doing it.

Thank you for reading it and taking time to make these nice comments.

[Orcin]

June 1, 2004 (BNN)

Subject: Federal Top Batter Trophy Won by Brown

Chris Brown was at the top of the hit parade in the Federal League throughout May. For the outstanding month, the talented Louisville first baseman was chosen the Batter of the Month. He compiled a .301 average with 31 hits, 12 home runs, 27 RBIs and 24 runs scored. So far this year, Brown is batting .289 with 15 home runs and 39 RBIs.

Subject: Federal Pitcher of the Month Goes To Wilson

Veteran Brian Wilson put together quite a successful stretch in May for the Louisville Colonels, earning himself the Federal League Pitcher of the Month award. Wilson racked up a 5-1 record in 6 starts, posting a 1.93 ERA over 46.2 innings and striking out 46. This year Wilson has a 6-2 record with a 2.27 ERA in 10 starts.

**********

The Colonels were 16-13 in May. I shudder to think where we would be without these two players. It would be easy to blame injuries but there are other problems. Westaway and Fletcher have been sub-par (for them). The offense remains among the best in the league even without our best player, but the infield defense (left side) has been shaky.

We have played only 20 home games and have a long home stand in June. The bullpen should be better in June. Olivares will be back in June. A stable lineup will improve the defense in June. I look forward to a good month of June. I think we have enough to stay in the race, and perhaps we will make a second-half run similar to last year.