Road to Release Part 7: Pitching Model Changes

[ootpFox07]

Pitching Model Changes: The Curious Case of Caleb Kelly

NOTE: This article was originally meant to be published before the release of OOTP 13. Since it was edited and ready for publish, Brad approved me posting this and RTR 8 on the forums. So enjoy these extra after the fact RTR articles.

Let's take a few moments to explore an area of OOTP 13 that sees an important update sure to make many OOTP enthusiasts stand up and cheer out loud. I am speaking about changes to the ever-important OOTP pitching model that will bring the pitching in your games to the highest levels of realism yet.

But before we dive headfirst into what these changes are, let's review a strange, yet not-too-uncommon tale of an All-Star closer in a solo league not far away. Let's review the Curious Case of Caleb Kelly.

Origins

Whether it be a MLB league, fictional league, or Hobbit League, there have always been a few quirks in the game when it comes to pitchers. Too many relievers entering into amateur drafts. Too many relievers rated so high they demanded outrageous salaries and, in many cases, received them too.
And then there's a case like Caleb "Biff" Kelly.

Kelly was drafted at the age of 17 in the second round in the 1993 North American Baseball League amateur draft by the St. Louis Broncos as a closer. He entered the farm system and was an awful 1-6 with a 7.71 ERA in his rookie year. What catches one's attention, however, is that in his second year he improved from 3.51 K/9 innings to 9.79, an increase of almost 66%. That's a mighty nice improvement there.

Two seasons later, Kelly was handed the a full-time closer job in the majors and posted an amazing 1.22 ERA, logged 40 saves, and received his first All-Star selection. The future for this now 21-year-old All-Star closer appeared big and bright. But was it?

A new team and new...role?

After four seasons as one of the top NABL closers, Kelly filed for free agency and signed a one-year deal with the San Diego Vipers. It was then that Kelly went from All-Star closer to … a top flight starter?! Yes, you read that right. The man who had spent the previous eight years of his professional career as a closer made his 2001 debut for the San Diego Vipers as a starter. He went from averaging 55 innings to suddenly pitching 232 innings. His ERA rose as one would expect, but only to 2.91. He K'd 282 batters and won 14 games.

He would go on to pitch ten more years as a starter, averaging 200+ innings while earning nine All-Star elections and four top pitcher awards. He and his later team, the New England Patriots, made seven straight post-season appearances and won two World Championships with Kelly as their ace. Quite impressive for a "closer", no?

Is it so strange though?

Now I know what you're saying. "What's so crazy about a reliever becoming a starter anyway? Neftali Feliz and Aroldis Chapman are doing the same thing right now." That's true: they are both relievers being promoted to the starting rotation. But there is one big difference between these two and our curious Mr. Kelly. Take this comparison into account:

Neftali Feliz (Minor League Stats. Source: Baseball Reference)



Aroldis Chapman (Cuban Stats. Source: Wikipedia)



The important number to look at for both pitchers here is their Games Started. Both Feliz and Chapman started more than 50 games before entering the majors. Guess how many Caleb Kelly started during the first eight seasons of his professional career? Zero. Nada. None. Nyet!

So how did this happen? How did Kelly make such a dramatic jump and have success going from a limited role to becoming an everyday starter?

A curious case, but not unique

Since the pitching model changes in OOTP 10, there has been two key factors in the decision of who starts and who relieves. Any combinations of three good-to-excellent pitches combined with good stamina would get one selected as a starter. Very low endurance or a lack of a quality third pitch usually means that pitcher is a reliever. Usually, but not always.

Take the case of Caleb Kelly. As a young closer he had two outstanding pitches (a fastball and sinker) one OK pitch (change-up) and one really lousy one (curveball). He also had marginal endurance that was right under the borderline of starter/reliever levels. Over time, however, OOTP inched up his endurance to the point that it rose over that line and the game chose to promote him to a starter role.

How he developed his third and fourth pitches is, however, somewhat of a mystery.They developed over time and emerged somewhere between his sixth and eighth seasons. By the time he reached San Diego in his ninth season, they were ready to be unleashed. Thanks to his now fully developed repertoire and starter-worthy endurance, Kelly did not just emerge as an everyday starter, he became the game's top starter. For the next decade!

Anyone running an OOTP game since version 10 has likely come across this type of scenario themselves one or more times. A top flight closer jumps to the starting rotation and flat-out dominates the game. We have all seen the opposite to be true in MLB, but take the cases of Christan Pagan and Orlando Jiminnez as further proof of this strange phenomena unique to OOTP. Users have been able to so some small things to combat this, though. Tweaking stamina down to relief-only levels or manually eliminating pitches have been two ways to force pitchers to serve only as relievers and leave starting to the guys who are cut out for it.

But wouldn't it be great if the game more accurately modeled the entry and development of pitchers right from the get-go? So that more pitchers entered amateur drafts as starters and either developed a third pitch to earn a rotation spot in the majors or didn't and fell to relief roles? Or so that if a pitcher was seriously injured, his stamina would drop so that he might ultimately face a new career as a reliever?

I am glad to say that day is now here!

OOTP 13 - A new pitching model has arrived

OOTP 13 improves the process of pitcher creation and development in some new and exciting ways. Some of the new improvements to the pitching model include:

• A more realistic pool of pitchers in the amateur draft, which will be made up of close to 90% starters.
• Starters will generally start with established fastballs and breaking pitches and weak off-speed pitches.
• Starters who improve or develop their weak off-speed pitch will have a better chance at starting in the majors than those who don't, who will be more likely to fall to relief roles.
• Pitching stamina will now depend on the pitchers' size. Shorter pitchers (roughly 5' 11” and shorter) will typically have less stamina now.
• A major injury has a higher chance of impacting a pitcher's stamina, potentially for the rest of his career, so bad injuries could force starters into relief roles.
• Overall ratings for relievers have been recalculated, resulting in more realistic ratings and lower salary demands.

2012 Starting Pitching draft Class. Note the # of players.


2012 Relief Pitching draft Class. Note the small # of players.

The way pitchers enter the game and either develop into world-class starters or fall into career relief roles is the very essence of pitching in any type of baseball game. And now OOTP 13 features the most realistic pitching model to date, assuring you the best experience running your dynasty yet. Caleb Kelly may have been a curious example of the effects of the old model on the game, but OOTP 13 will help write an entirely new history for your league, one amateur pitcher draft pick at a time.

[1998 Yankees]

This deserves a bump back to page one. As a matter of fact, I would suggest an ambitious moderator gather all eight RTR original posts into one thread and sticky it to the top of the board.

[Pacoheadley]

Quick little note, that strikeout improvement was much more than 66 %

Now, to comment on the actual post... I LOVE the new changes!

[luger]

How is everybody treating this change in their first-year player drafts? I haven't done any yet so I'm not sure how this changes things. If there are 90% SP in the draft then it seems like a bit more guesswork in determining who will stay as a SP going forward.

[reds1]

Excellent article. Thanks for the walk-through!

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by reds1

Excellent article. Thanks for the walk-through!

Yes, it really was well-done. As was the whole RTR process this year.

[VARoadstter]

Pitching stamina will now depend on the pitchers' size. Shorter pitchers (roughly 5' 11” and shorter) will typically have less stamina now.

I don't understand this. What has size got to do with ability as a starter? Does anyone remember Pedro Martinez? He was listed at 5' 11" and 170 but that's ridiculous. I'd say he was no taller than 5'9". And he was unbelievable.

My only quibble. Keep up the good work and I like the thinking outside the box approach.

[Cras]

Another great RTR write up.

[cuervo72]

• A more realistic pool of pitchers in the amateur draft, which will be made up of close to 90% starters.
• Starters will generally start with established fastballs and breaking pitches and weak off-speed pitches.
• Starters who improve or develop their weak off-speed pitch will have a better chance at starting in the majors than those who don't, who will be more likely to fall to relief roles.

Regarding these, does anyone have a sense of how much of these specific points are intrinsic player changes, and how much is just reclassification?

Specifically, are there more pitchers showing up with that weak 3rd pitch rather than strictly fastball/curve, and are there any fewer that will start with 3+ (or, seven)?

In our v11 FOBL drafts, there have been plenty of high stamina pitchers with two great pitches that are labeled as MR solely because they don't have a 3rd pitch, and if they magically gained one they would immediately be considered SP material (like this guy, who WAS at one point labeled as a "marginal starter" - even with just those two pitches - or this guy who was deemed "emergency worthy" when his FB/CB became high enough; both were MR in the draft pool).

Are pitchers actually showing up with different skills, or is it just easier to achieve that initial "SP" label?

[statfreak]

Originally Posted by VARoadstter

I don't understand this. What has size got to do with ability as a starter? Does anyone remember Pedro Martinez? He was listed at 5' 11" and 170 but that's ridiculous. I'd say he was no taller than 5'9". And he was unbelievable.

My only quibble. Keep up the good work and I like the thinking outside the box approach.

While I question it too, I did find this article, Major league scouts and general managers are panting over - 08.13.01 - SI Vault.

Maybe Markus read it while implementing the change.

[Pacoheadley]

Originally Posted by VARoadstter

I don't understand this. What has size got to do with ability as a starter? Does anyone remember Pedro Martinez? He was listed at 5' 11" and 170 but that's ridiculous. I'd say he was no taller than 5'9". And he was unbelievable.

My only quibble. Keep up the good work and I like the thinking outside the box approach.

It isn't a be all end all thing, just that a taller pitcher is more likely to have higher stamina than a short pitcher.

[rjl518]

Great article. Iwas wondering how the pitching mechanic seemed to be improbed this year.

[drksd4848]

Originally Posted by VARoadstter

I don't understand this. What has size got to do with ability as a starter? Does anyone remember Pedro Martinez? He was listed at 5' 11" and 170 but that's ridiculous. I'd say he was no taller than 5'9". And he was unbelievable.

My only quibble. Keep up the good work and I like the thinking outside the box approach.

Yeah, I have a big problem with this too. Look at John Rauch: 6'11'' failed as a starter, now a reliever. Unless there is something built into the new pitching model that accounts "abberations" like Pedro Martinez?

[damientheomen3]

Originally Posted by drksd4848

Yeah, I have a big problem with this too. Look at John Rauch: 6'11'' failed as a starter, now a reliever. Unless there is something built into the new pitching model that accounts "abberations" like Pedro Martinez?

It just means that pitchers under 6 feet tall won't generally have as much stamina upon creation. It won't affect ability otherwise AFAIK.

[Marinersfan51]

Originally Posted by drksd4848

Yeah, I have a big problem with this too. Look at John Rauch: 6'11'' failed as a starter, now a reliever. Unless there is something built into the new pitching model that accounts "abberations" like Pedro Martinez?

This is not a strict rule, just in general height will correspond to stamina. This models real life, think of the prototypical workhorse starter, Jon Garland or Joe Blanton, they are 6'6" and 6'3" respectively. There will be exceptions and a higher stamina doesn't necessarily mean they will be a successful starter and some shorter pitchers will have good stamina.

[ootpFox07]

The height/stamina is a player creation principle, not a hard fast rule. Exceptions (AKA Pedro) are always possible. Know that several beta testers modeled the new player development curves to assure the changes were producing acceptable results.

[NomarHits400]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

• A more realistic pool of pitchers in the amateur draft, which will be made up of close to 90% starters.
• Starters will generally start with established fastballs and breaking pitches and weak off-speed pitches.
• Starters who improve or develop their weak off-speed pitch will have a better chance at starting in the majors than those who don't, who will be more likely to fall to relief roles.

Regarding these, does anyone have a sense of how much of these specific points are intrinsic player changes, and how much is just reclassification?

Specifically, are there more pitchers showing up with that weak 3rd pitch rather than strictly fastball/curve, and are there any fewer that will start with 3+ (or, seven)?

In our v11 FOBL drafts, there have been plenty of high stamina pitchers with two great pitches that are labeled as MR solely because they don't have a 3rd pitch, and if they magically gained one they would immediately be considered SP material (like this guy, who WAS at one point labeled as a "marginal starter" - even with just those two pitches - or this guy who was deemed "emergency worthy" when his FB/CB became high enough; both were MR in the draft pool).

Are pitchers actually showing up with different skills, or is it just easier to achieve that initial "SP" label?

Excellent question, I'm curious about this too- I'm afraid that's what I am seeing for the most part.....Most of the changes seem to be cosmetic.

[snepp]

This is anecdotal, but I like what I've been seeing out of the draft pools thus far.

[injury log]

Originally Posted by NomarHits400

Excellent question, I'm curious about this too- I'm afraid that's what I am seeing for the most part.....Most of the changes seem to be cosmetic.

I don't understand what you mean by 'cosmetic'. In OOTP-12, half of the High School pitchers in the Amateur Draft threw only 2 pitches. In OOTP-13, 99% of them throw at least three pitches. Even when the third pitch has poor potential, it will often develop into a usable pitch that can allow the pitcher to be an SP in the Majors. I don't see how that's a 'cosmetic' difference; it's a fundamental change to the pitching model.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by injury log

I don't understand what you mean by 'cosmetic'. In OOTP-12, half of the High School pitchers in the Amateur Draft threw only 2 pitches. In OOTP-13, 99% of them throw at least three pitches. Even when the third pitch has poor potential, it will often develop into a usable pitch that can allow the pitcher to be an SP in the Majors. I don't see how that's a 'cosmetic' difference; it's a fundamental change to the pitching model.

Thanks - If that's the case, it would indeed seem that there was a tweak to player generation that isn't entirely cosmetic. It sounds like it adds a little more fog-of-war to which pitchers might end up as viable starters, which is a good thing IMO.



(Now, as an aside - I this doesn't strike me as a huge change to the "pitching model." A significant change to the pitcher development model, yes. I think of "pitching model" changes as changes to actual play resolution. The change from avoid hits/doubles/hr/walks to control/movement/stuff seemed like a change to the pitching model. The introduction of individual pitches seemed like a change to the pitching model. This seems more like a change of what is being fed into the model. I know that may come off as over-parsing things, but it really seems like a playerbase tweak.)