AI Lineups & Batting Orders: Analysis & Suggestions

[Cruzatte]

I care about this because I sim game-by-game, and setting your own lineups/batting orders (when you have injuries, call-ups, etc.) on a regular basis is a colossal task. A good AI lineup/order system is absolutely necessary to immersion and playability.

I posted a slightly different version of this last summer. But I'd like to get it out there again.

Overview.
Basically, there are two keys to this whole thing: (1) how the AI picks a lineup; and (2) how the AI sets a batting order within that lineup.

The problem with "Traditional Lineup Selection" isn't the batting order, but the lineup selection itself: it uses the most nontraditional aspects of "sabermetrics" (no Versus consistency in the lineup; basically illogical sit/start decisions based on badly-prioritized split ratings).

The problem with "Sabermetric Lineup Selection" isn't the lineup itself, but the batting order: it has some of the worst aspects of "tradition" (basically, it doesn't do a good job following widely-accepted statistical principles of batting order construction).

TRADITIONAL.
The "traditional" AI selection isn't traditional. The problem (in terms of "tradition") is the lack of unity between the Versus lineups. Moreover, it usually makes nonsensical decision: it sits better players for mediocre players based on bizarre distinctions.

E.g. a star RF (74/80 overall) sits against every RHP, in favor of a 58-overall RF who has +5/20 contact vs. RHP, but -4 power and -4 RF fielding. (Against LHPs, the star is substantially better in all respects; both are 33 years old and playing to their max potential.)
(Also note: I'm trying not to be myopic about the "overall" metric... I think I'm fairly judging these guys by their stats & split ratings, not just "HOW COULD YOU START MY 4.5 STAR GUY OVER MY 5 STAR GUY?!?!")

Thus, "Traditional" lineup A.I. needs:
(1) Realistic sit/start decisions based on Ratings. (No MLB manager would make the lineup decision I just described... and a good number of those managers are far more SABR than old-school. Plus, the 74-overall guy makes way more money.)
(2) Realistic consistency between the Versus lineups. (I.e., prioritize consistency between lineups, and allow platoons only for major ratings differences.)

I realize that this might require re-imagining the Versus lineups in such a way that the AI could recognize that it's making a "platoon," as opposed to making discrete & unrelated decisions. But this is absolutely necessary to make the lineups "traditional." And to make them reflect, you know, real baseball.

WORKAROUNDS:
(1) Set your own lineups--a potentially monumental task, whether you're a simmer or pitch-by-pitch'er.
(2) Force-start a player in Player Strategy to avoid the platoon.
(3) Crank up "Pinch-Hit for Position Players." At least then, your 74-overall guy will play as soon as a lefty comes in.

SABERMETRIC.
The "sabermetric" AI selection just reshuffles the batting order of the "traditional" lineup (same 9 guys, including bizarre platoons, but with a different batting order). Maybe there are instances when it would actually make a distinct lineup, but I've never seen it happen.

If we assume that Traditional AI lineups are basically Sabermetric, since they're still splits-obsessed, then the Sabermetric AI's reshuffling should be based on a substantially different ordering algorithm.

But it's not. The reshuffling does prioritize splits, but not pursuant to any truly "Sabermetric" logic. The overwhelming lineup scheme still appears to be traditional (e.g., the low-OBP speedster is still in the leadoff spot). In other words, it doesn't really comport with The Book.*

When I use Sabermetric Lineups, I'm much more willing to allow the AI to make a facially bizarre sit/start decision (like 74 vs. 58, above). So if we're confident that OOTP makes a rational decision here, then maybe it doesn't need tweaking for Sabermetric mode.

Anyway, the point is, the stats-based batting order construction leaves a good deal to be desired.

FINAL SUGGESTION:
In the perfect world (the kind of world that maybe somebody could create using a computer), we'd have two distinct systems...
One that makes lineup selections: do I want to (A) start my best 9 players without respect to their splits ratings, unless there's a substantial platoon advantage (Traditional), or do I want to (B) start the best 9 depending on the opposing pitcher's handedness (Saber).
And one that makes order selections**: do I want to (X) use an old-school, speed-at-the-top order (Traditional) or (Y) go by The Book* (Saber).

The bigger problem from a gameplay standpoint, in my view, is the first one: by the time the AI is making "traditional" ORDER decisions, it's forced to work with a nontraditional (i.e. heavily splits-based) LINEUP.

===============================

* The Book's construction, just for the record:

(1) top-3 hitter w/ high OBP
(2) top-3 hitter
(3) 5th-best (or 4th-best, if high HR power)
(4) top-3 hitter w/ high SLG
(5) 4th-best (or 5th, if 4th-best has high HR power)
(6) 6th-best (or lower, if 7/8/9 has SB speed)
(7) 7th-best
(8) 8th-best (or 9th-best, if 9th is seriously bad, i.e. pitcher)
(9) 9th-best (again, unless he's seriously bad, then put #8 here)

** Technically you COULD differentiate AI order selection from lineup selection, by asking the manager to generate a lineup based on a depth chart that you set yourself.

But that doesn't actually change the analysis and problems, since what we're after is having the AI set up a depth chart (that is, select a lineup) that makes sense.

This bears repeating: the AI could set the batting order in a perfectly traditional way (I think it does a decent job at this), or in a perfectly sabermetric way (this it does not so well, as discussed above). But those functions are secondary to the AI making good lineup decisions.

[luger]

Just wanted to say that I agree with what you're saying. As someone who sims 90% of each season, I find myself constantly fixing lineups after guys go on and off the DL... The automatically created depth charts and lineups are always such a mess for the reasons you outlined here.

[sabby787]

This also affects the AI teams. Putting together your own lineup not only takes a lot of time given injuries etc. but your potentially giving yourself an unfair edge over the computer teams. It takes something off of winning your division by a game when you see that your division rival has been using silly lineups for the entire season

[Cruzatte]

Originally Posted by luger

Just wanted to say that I agree with what you're saying. As someone who sims 90% of each season, I find myself constantly fixing lineups after guys go on and off the DL... The automatically created depth charts and lineups are always such a mess for the reasons you outlined here.

Right. As much as the lineup & ordering problems detract from OOTP's realism, they're just as big of an issue for playability. If you want lineups that an actual manager or actual sabermetrician would use, setting them without any AI help can take up all your in-game time.

[StyxNCa]

Immersion is a factor when you just sim games? Wow. I would have never thought that.

[Pacoheadley]

Originally Posted by StyxNCa

Immersion is a factor when you just sim games? Wow. I would have never thought that.

Well, thats because it kind of is. I sim almost all of my games, not because I don't care too much about the details, but because I'm just not a big fan of managing, and I can see all the stats and details of the game in the box score and game log. Just because you sim games, it doesn't mean you don't want the game to be realistic.
My apologies if you were being sarcastic or something

[Cruzatte]

Originally Posted by Pacoheadley

Well, thats because it kind of is. I sim almost all of my games, not because I don't care too much about the details, but because I'm just not a big fan of managing, and I can see all the stats and details of the game in the box score and game log. Just because you sim games, it doesn't mean you don't want the game to be realistic.
My apologies if you were being sarcastic or something

Yeah--I play OOTP like I follow baseball: I spend more time with box scores and league standings than I do watching games (hard to get out of the office by 7 most of the time).

[Cruzatte]

Bump--because I'm spending another Saturday afternoon trying to fix the AI's silly sit/start decisions.

[oman19]

Originally Posted by StyxNCa

Immersion is a factor when you just sim games? Wow. I would have never thought that.

It really is. I sim one game at a time and go through the box scores I really get to know my teams and over time the rest of the league this way. I kinda do a GM/Manage hybrid. I set all my line-ups,rotations, and depth charts myself but when it comes to calling plays in game I think I have to big an advantage over the AI.

[BusterKing]

Originally Posted by oman19

I kinda do a GM/Manage hybrid. I set all my line-ups,rotations, and depth charts myself

Same here

Originally Posted by oman19

but when it comes to calling plays in game I think I have to big an advantage over the AI.

I also agree and that's why I play all my games in one pitch mode and I only control the substitutions for my team in the game so that I don't in fact have any type of advantage.

[Markus Heinsohn]

Originally Posted by Cruzatte

[B]
This bears repeating: the AI could set the batting order in a perfectly traditional way (I think it does a decent job at this), or in a perfectly sabermetric way (this it does not so well, as discussed above). But those functions are secondary to the AI making good lineup decisions.

OK. I think the AI selects the right lineup, but if you disagree I need a) league files and b) specific examples in these league files, both emailed to me at markus(at)ootpdevelopments.com

[Biggio509]

Originally Posted by Cruzatte

E.g. a star RF (74/80 overall) sits against every RHP, in favor of a 58-overall RF who has +5/20 contact vs. RHP, but -4 power and -4 RF fielding. (Against LHPs, the star is substantially better in all respects; both are 33 years old and playing to their max potential.)
(Also note: I'm trying not to be myopic about the "overall" metric... I think I'm fairly judging these guys by their stats & split ratings, not just "HOW COULD YOU START MY 4.5 STAR GUY OVER MY 5 STAR GUY?!?!")

First off the star metric is a guide to humans not an AI, at least so I think. Secondly 4.5 versus 5 is not a huge difference. If he was a 2 star that being chosen that would be different. 25% more contact vs. -20% power is a real trade off that depending where in the versus RHP lineup the guy is might make me choose the 4.5 star guy. How bad is the guy's contact vs. right. Sure he has more power but he has to make contact to hit a HR. There are more ratings going into this than power and contact, there is avoid K, gap, and eye. The -20% fielding for a OF might be an issue.

I can't say from what you have posted I might not platoon in that situation. It just seems to me you are the '27 Yankees or paying way too much for a backup! At the very least giving up a good trade that could improve your team where it is weaker.

The only thing that gets me in the lineup selection traditional or sabremetric is I feel the AI doesn't put enough on speed and stealing for the leadoff man. It seems very willing to put a slightly higher OBP guy in the lead off is slower than John Kruk over a speedier guy who has less OBP. That being said teams have done that in the history of baseball.

[Pdubya64]

Originally Posted by oman19

I sim one game at a time and go through the box scores I really get to know my teams and over time the rest of the league this way. I kinda do a GM/Manage hybrid. I set all my line-ups, rotations, and depth charts myself but when it comes to calling plays in game I think I have to big an advantage over the AI.

This is how I play also. I would be great if a solution to the issues outlined by the OP could be found.

[Markus Heinsohn]

Originally Posted by Pdubya64

This is how I play also. I would be great if a solution to the issues outlined by the OP could be found.

Well, in my opinion there are no issues to be honest. I have yet to receive league files which clearly show any problems...

[Pdubya64]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

Well, in my opinion there are no issues to be honest. I have yet to receive league files which clearly show any problems...

Roger! Follow-up is a beautiful thing... no?

[Cruzatte]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

Well, in my opinion there are no issues to be honest. I have yet to receive league files which clearly show any problems...

Meh it's on it's way, bizarre sit/start issue not replicating at the moment (and I'm not playing very actively--the example cited there was from my original post on this topic in July 2011, so not immediately replicable).

My point stands on the sabermetrics lineups, though. The lineups produced don't go by The Book, they're just a slightly splits-ier version of traditional.

Promise to pass along the league files once I find a particularly egregious "platoon" again

EDIT -- and to Biggio509's point, I do have a bizarre talent logjam, and for a number of reasons... including the strange attachment I feel to some of my fic players. (Part of it is that players drafted in the fictional inaugural draft are still in the game, and so there are lots of bizarrely good players (this has been pretty well documented as an issue with inaugural player gens, I believe).)

[Markus Heinsohn]

Originally Posted by Cruzatte

Meh it's on it's way, bizarre sit/start issue not replicating at the moment (and I'm not playing very actively--the example cited there was from my original post on this topic in July 2011, so not immediately replicable).

My point stands on the sabermetrics lineups, though. The lineups produced don't go by The Book, they're just a slightly splits-ier version of traditional.

Promise to pass along the league files once I find a particularly egregious "platoon" again

EDIT -- and to Biggio509's point, I do have a bizarre talent logjam, and for a number of reasons... including the strange attachment I feel to some of my fic players. (Part of it is that players drafted in the fictional inaugural draft are still in the game, and so there are lots of bizarrely good players (this has been pretty well documented as an issue with inaugural player gens, I believe).)

To be honest, I don't really understand the instructions of "The Book".

(1) top-3 hitter w/ high OBP
(2) top-3 hitter
(3) 5th-best (or 4th-best, if high HR power)
(4) top-3 hitter w/ high SLG
(5) 4th-best (or 5th, if 4th-best has high HR power)
(6) 6th-best (or lower, if 7/8/9 has SB speed)
(7) 7th-best
(8) 8th-best (or 9th-best, if 9th is seriously bad, i.e. pitcher)
(9) 9th-best (again, unless he's seriously bad, then put #8 here)

What does "top-3 hitter" mean? By which criteria? Also, x-best, best of what? AVG? OPS? tAVG?

[Biggio509]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

What does "top-3 hitter" mean? By which criteria? Also, x-best, best of what? AVG? OPS? tAVG?

Come on Markus be a fan and stop being so technical. jk. Personally I see the lineups are usually right for the middle but personally I put a little more emphasis on speed and stealing for the number 1 guy than the AI does. Usually when my lineup is radically different it is based on stats from the last year rather than ratings. Other than the sometimes slower than dirt catcher the AI puts in the lead off position because of his OBP, well at least that is why I think it does.

[OutS|der]

can we have it so we can set a player to a sport in the batting order in strategy, this might help a bit by at least allowing some players to stay at that batting spot like they would in real life even if someone better came along. Sure it was mostly due to that player being popular and it would take a sharp decline to have them move, but at least you can keep your fast guy at lead off even if the game likes his stats better for 3rd for some reason even if he's my best hitter i don't want a slug hitting lead off over him.
Maybe a tweak in how it sets the lineups, because how much does player evaluation take effect as that could change the whole line up

[oman19]

Originally Posted by Biggio509

Come on Markus be a fan and stop being so technical. jk. Personally I see the lineups are usually right for the middle but personally I put a little more emphasis on speed and stealing for the number 1 guy than the AI does. Usually when my lineup is radically different it is based on stats from the last year rather than ratings. Other than the sometimes slower than dirt catcher the AI puts in the lead off position because of his OBP, well at least that is why I think it does.

My AI loves used to love putting my slower than dirt catcher batting lead off for some reason. Could never figure it out lol.