How accurate is injuries?

[J P Falcon the 3rd]

I have to admit though that I would not mind seeing a seperate injury frequency slider for the minor leagues because I would set it a bit lower than what the major league level is. Reality or not, when I see the majority of my AAA team wiped out, I find that disconcerting....

[Dr. dru]

The thing i noticed that is a little ridiculous is that it seems like CF get hurt at a much greater frequency than RF or LF. If you play a guy in RF he can easily make it through the season, but if you put him in CF he gets hurt every year. This is frustrating because I would like to put my best player in CF, but have to put him in RF so he doesn't get hurt.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Dr. dru

The thing i noticed that is a little ridiculous is that it seems like CF get hurt at a much greater frequency than RF or LF. If you play a guy in RF he can easily make it through the season, but if you put him in CF he gets hurt every year. This is frustrating because I would like to put my best player in CF, but have to put him in RF so he doesn't get hurt.

I've played close to 200 seasons solo and decades of online seasons without seeing anything like this. Not saying it can't happen but if a pattern was that obvious it would likely have been documented considering that 100,000x seasons have been played.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

The distribution & length matches our real life data properly as well.

Is the frequency of injury occurrence static or variable throughout the season? My perception (flawed I know) is that IRL season ending injuries (defined as missing the playoffs) that occur in September are rare in a healthy (previously uninjured) player. I dread September in OOTP as it typically produces 2-3, but sometimes 5 or more such injuries to key players.

Like I said it is a perception that could be checked but I don't remember a recent WS favorite starting the playoffs with 3 or more key starting players missing.

[Dr. dru]

Originally Posted by RchW

I've played close to 200 seasons solo and decades of online seasons without seeing anything like this. Not saying it can't happen but if a pattern was that obvious it would likely have been documented considering that 100,000x seasons have been played.

I'm pretty sure I have seen others mention that CF seems to be a position that has injuries occur with a greater frequency than other outfield positions. If anyone else has seen this, please back it up. Or just watch for yourself and see if you see more injuries to CF.

[Chicagofan76]

Originally Posted by Dr. dru

The thing i noticed that is a little ridiculous is that it seems like CF get hurt at a much greater frequency than RF or LF. If you play a guy in RF he can easily make it through the season, but if you put him in CF he gets hurt every year. This is frustrating because I would like to put my best player in CF, but have to put him in RF so he doesn't get hurt.

I agree 100% with this. in just my current league Chris Singleton has played a total of 98 games in almost 2 sns due to being injured. For my Chicago Fire my CF gets injured every year (custom player injury was set to 0) he misses min 2 weeks every August.
On the flip side every RF I have for my 5 leagues seems to be injured more often. Maggs is out for 6 weeks this yr, lasy yr it was 3 weeks and 2 day to days. I have been injured 3 times in 6 sns for 1 of my teams. I lost my RF for the season for my Fire.

[Chicagofan76]

Originally Posted by RchW

Is the frequency of injury occurrence static or variable throughout the season? My perception (flawed I know) is that IRL season ending injuries (defined as missing the playoffs) that occur in September are rare in a healthy (previously uninjured) player. I dread September in OOTP as it typically produces 2-3, but sometimes 5 or more such injuries to key players.

Like I said it is a perception that could be checked but I don't remember a recent WS favorite starting the playoffs with 3 or more key starting players missing.

I also hate September in OOTP, and when I have a substantial lead I rest as many starters as possible for as log as possible. 1 seasons with my Fire i lost myself #1 SP and my 4 time MVP CF within 2 games of each other for the season. ( I was able to pitch game 5 of the World Series, lost 4-2) I once blew a 8 game lead in Sep when all 3 of my OF got injured for 1-2 weeks and I went down with a season ender.

[Dr. dru]

Originally Posted by Chicagofan76

I agree 100% with this. in just my current league Chris Singleton has played a total of 98 games in almost 2 sns due to being injured. For my Chicago Fire my CF gets injured every year (custom player injury was set to 0) he misses min 2 weeks every August.
On the flip side every RF I have for my 5 leagues seems to be injured more often. Maggs is out for 6 weeks this yr, lasy yr it was 3 weeks and 2 day to days. I have been injured 3 times in 6 sns for 1 of my teams. I lost my RF for the season for my Fire.

What about LF? They may have data that shows RF and CF get injured more often, but my guess is if that's true, it's just by random chance. In my leagues CF is a position where you get injured very often. I have not seen the same thing for RF.

[Chicagofan76]

Originally Posted by Dr. dru

What about LF? They may have data that shows RF and CF get injured more often, but my guess is if that's true, it's just by random chance. In my leagues CF is a position where you get injured very often. I have not seen the same thing for RF.

as far as most of my LF they have stayed mostly healthy. i did have 1 league wehere my LF/1B did get injured often. For my Chicago Fire i have had Rockey Henderson & Babe Ruth in LF. Most of their injuries were minor day to day stuff. For my current ChiSox once again they have stayed mostly healthy, but i also have had a platoon of 5 guys in 1999 and 3 guys in 2000. Dunston, Jay Payton & Brian Simmons. Dunson plays DH twice a week plays RF 1 game, Payton sits vs RHP Simmons is on the bench and comes in in blowouts or to pinch run for Thomas, Konerko, ventura.

[snepp]

How about this poor guy? He's been playing primarily left (when he even manages to get on the field that is).

2014-03-28 Injured on 03/24/2014, diagnosed with shoulder tendinitis, will miss 2 weeks.
2014-05-03 Injured on 04/30/2014, diagnosed with a sprained wrist, will miss 3-4 weeks.
2014-06-13 Injured (foot contusion), out for 2 weeks.
2014-07-04 Injured (sprained elbow), out for 2 weeks.
2014-07-20 Injured (separated shoulder), out for 2-3 weeks.


And to add insult to....injury, he finds a way to sneak one more in before the season ends.

2014-09-13 Injured on 09/11/2014, diagnosed with a strained rib cage muscle, will miss 3 weeks.

[mouse001]

The injuries ARE pretty accurate I feel. In fact I'd say there aren't enough little day to day ailments that prevent players from playing 100%.

Cal Ripkin played 2632 consecutive games but do you think he was playing 100% every game? Think of yourself from March to November. How many times have you stubbed a toe, sprained an ankle, etc? And the players job is 90% physical (the other half is mental ) so it goes without saying that they are going to get banged up.

This doesn't mean a player can't play for three days because he got a papercut but I wouldn't mind seeing a few more orange health signs next to players name, especially in the later weeks of the season.

As for the DL, check out the Twins. And the Mets last year (or two years ago, the year when Luis Castillo tripped down the dugout stairs and hurt himself). There's always one team that gets totally screwed in the DL Department. Seriously, look at the Twins. I was watching a game yesterday and only Cuddyer and Valencia were opening day starters. That's 7/9 backups

[f.montoya]

I posted this yesterday in the Beta Testing forum and thought I'd share it here as well...

According to this study by the American Journal of Sports Medicine, between the years 2002 and 2008, an average of 438.9 players per year were placed on the disabled list. Now while this does not include day-to-day knick-knack injuries, I thought that I would run some tests with a league set in 2004, partly because that's within the range of the study and partly because my online league just converted to OOTP 12 and we happen to be in 2004 with, what many feel, a sizable increase in injuries...

I ran 8 historical leagues setup in 2004, all with 3 levels of minor leagues and all settings that match Asahi2. I ran two tests per injury setting(all except Very High) and here are the results in the total number of injuries from January 1st to October 4th(the end of the regular season).

Very Low:
Sim 1: 173
Sim 2: 166

Low(we use this setting):
Sim 1: 570
Sim 2: 561

Normal(OOTP Classic):
Sim 1: 920
Sim 2: 852

High(Realistic Modern Day):
Sim 1: 1212
Sim 2: 1180

It appears that each setting up adds roughly 400 injuries over the previous setting. Also, OOTP reports ALL injuries, including ones that do not require being placed on the DL. A common understanding in baseball is that 75% of players will sustain some type of injury during the season, whether it be as minor as a hangnail or as severe as a broken foot. There are roughly 1280 players that might wear a Major League uniform during the course of the year, if 75% of them encounter an injury, that is 960, with 438.9 of them needing to be placed on the DL.

Also, according to the study by the AJSM, injuries are more likely to occur during the early part of the season and less likely to occur after the All-Star break. The highest injury rate during the season was during the month of April (5.73/1000 exposures) and the lowest in September (0.54/1000 exposures). Whether that's because the poor conditioned athletes get weeded out early or if it's just plain luck, those are pretty consistent stats.

I would recommend that the settings themselves should be tweaked by Markus so that the "Realistic Modern Day" setting uses 960/439 as a target, as well as distribute injuries over the course of the year consistent with real life. For us, in the meantime, we can somewhat replicate real life by setting injuries as follows:

January thru May: High(Realistic Modern Day)
June and July: Normal(OOTP Classic)
August thru December: Very Low

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by f.montoya

The highest injury rate during the season was during the month of April (5.73/1000 exposures) and the lowest in September (0.54/1000 exposures).

Hmmm, oddly, at least for the small number of seasons for which I have the figures, when one compares the number of players on the DL as of opening day and the number on the DL as of August 31st, the latter is higher. Below is the average number of players per club on the DL as of opening day and August 31st, respectively.

1991: 2.231 / 3.846
1992: 2.654 / 4.692
1993: 2.429 / 4.143
1997: 2.643 / 4.500
1999: 2.400 / 5.667
2001: 3.467 / 5.333
2004: 2.667 / 5.900
2005: 2.633 / 5.133

The average number of players on the DL as of opening day is more commonly available. Here is what that looked like from 2000-11:

2000: 3.000
2001: 3.467
2002: 3.300
2003: 2.567
2004: 2.667
2005: 2.633
2006: 2.100
2007: 3.300
2008: 3.500
2009: 2.267
2010: 2.600
2011: 3.233

[f.montoya]

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

Hmmm, oddly, at least for the small number of seasons for which I have the figures, when one compares the number of players on the DL as of opening day and the number on the DL as of August 31st, the latter is higher. Below is the average number of players per club on the DL as of opening day and August 31st, respectively.

1991: 2.231 / 3.846
1992: 2.654 / 4.692
1993: 2.429 / 4.143
1997: 2.643 / 4.500
1999: 2.400 / 5.667
2001: 3.467 / 5.333
2004: 2.667 / 5.900
2005: 2.633 / 5.133

The average number of players on the DL as of opening day is more commonly available. Here is what that looked like from 2000-11:

2000: 3.000
2001: 3.467
2002: 3.300
2003: 2.567
2004: 2.667
2005: 2.633
2006: 2.100
2007: 3.300
2008: 3.500
2009: 2.267
2010: 2.600
2011: 3.233

Interesting data. I don't think there is any contradiction between your data and that of the AJSM. Obviouslly, in August and September, there would be more players on the DL because they accumulate over the course of the season.

Question, what happens when the 60-day DL runs out and the player has not recovered? Does that player still show as being on the DL? For example(and I am no expert), in 2005: 2.633 / 5.133. If one player was injured and placed on the 60 day DL in April, does that 5.133 include him, even though his 60 day DL time was over?

[Biggio509]

I remember a few versions back someone created a new injury file with more accurate injuries. It used terms like grade I and grade II sprains. It featured more short term injuries. I have not seen it replicated so I suppose this was implemented into the game eventually other than the medical terms.

What I have noticed in previous versions is that increasing injury rates or decreasing injury rates can affect the quality of a fictional league. The system is or was designed with an injury rate in mind. There is a certain number of quality players generated that is over the ideal number so when the randomness of injuries eventually catches up with stars and super stars the number will be right. In past versions altering injury rates from normal seemed to have effects on the quality of the average player in the league. Raising frequency meant over time your league had slightly less quality while lowering frequency meant more. The higher the injury probability the more likely a superstar would get hit by a serious injury or enough injuries not to develop properly. The lower, the less likely injuries hit so you get more guys developing like they should which means the distribution was off. At least in earlier versions the distribution of players created was not altered to the injury rate to keep quality constant at different injury rates.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by f.montoya

Interesting data. I don't think there is any contradiction between your data and that of the AJSM. Obviouslly, in August and September, there would be more players on the DL because they accumulate over the course of the season.

Yeah, that makes sense.

Originally Posted by f.montoya

Question, what happens when the 60-day DL runs out and the player has not recovered?

A player is considered on the DL until such time he has been reinstated from it. So a DL stint can theoretically last the entire season (183 days) if he was put onto the DL before the regular season started.

[Isura]

Originally Posted by RchW

Is the frequency of injury occurrence static or variable throughout the season? My perception (flawed I know) is that IRL season ending injuries (defined as missing the playoffs) that occur in September are rare in a healthy (previously uninjured) player. I dread September in OOTP as it typically produces 2-3, but sometimes 5 or more such injuries to key players.

Like I said it is a perception that could be checked but I don't remember a recent WS favorite starting the playoffs with 3 or more key starting players missing.

I use high setting until the All-star break and normal after the break. Seems to work well.

Actually, I might try

April = very high
May-July = high (MLB)
Aug+ = normal

Not tested very high though, it might be ridiculous

edit: BTW, to answer your question. I have found injuries are equally distributed throughout the season (except spring training)

[Le Grande Orange]

For an idea of just how much injuries can vary from team to team, consider the following real-world numbers.

Number of players on the active roster and DL as of August 31st in each year:

2008

MLB Total: 926
Club Minimum: 26
Club Maximum: 37
Club Average: 30.87
Club Median: 30

2009

MLB Total: 926
Club Minimum: 28
Club Maximum: 38
Club Average: 30.87
Club Median: 30.5

[simcrazy]

Originally Posted by f.montoya

For us, in the meantime, we can somewhat replicate real life by setting injuries as follows:

January thru May: High(Realistic Modern Day)
June and July: Normal(OOTP Classic)
August thru December: Very Low

Can you please explain your logic? I'm sorry, I read and re-read your post and still don't understand why there should be different settings for different months. Wouldn't the ideal be the same, realistic, setting each month?

Perhaps that setting should be Low? I too am looking for a better way to "do" injuries. Using Normal (OOTP Classic), I think the frequency is good, maybe even too low, but the severity is waaaay too harsh.