There is a flaw in the AI

DaMook · 12-11-2011, 09:31 PM

I thought this was a fluke at first, but it's been happening consistently over multiple seasons.

I just finished the season with a losing record and in 4th place even though I lead the division in runs scored and allowed and I was 7th in runs scored and 2nd in runs allowed in the league. This has happend a bunch of times already.

One or two seasons of this would be fine, but for this to consistently happen seems like an issue to me. Has anyone experienced this?

SandMan · 12-11-2011, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaMook

I thought this was a fluke at first, but it's been happening consistently over multiple seasons.

I just finished the season with a losing record and in 4th place even though I lead the division in runs scored and allowed and I was 7th in runs scored and 2nd in runs allowed in the league. This has happend a bunch of times already.

One or two seasons of this would be fine, but for this to consistently happen seems like an issue to me. Has anyone experienced this?

What is the flaw?

DaMook · 12-11-2011, 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SandMan

What is the flaw?

The flaw is that your team can have a losing record even though you have a positive run differential. It should almost always result in a winning record. I had a +60 run differential would should have resulted in 90+ wins. Instead I ended with 80. This is happening too often in the game.

phillupi · 12-12-2011, 07:09 AM

Should is the key factor. I don't see how this is a flaw. Many factors go into wins and loses. Try a different team and see what happens with that team and then see what your original team did with the AI manager.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

DaMook · 12-12-2011, 08:58 AM

A few times is fine, but this is happening almost every time. Statistically that shouldn't happen.

CD1083 · 12-12-2011, 09:09 AM

When you win you win big, when you lose you lose by a smaller run differential.

If I play 10 games:

1. W - 11-2
2. L - 3-4
3. L - 0-1
4. W - 5-1
5. L - 7-8
6. W - 7-4
7. L - 1-2
8. L - 5-8
9. W - 12-4
10. L - 2-3

I scored 53 runs and gave up 37 runs.
I have a losing record (4-6).

There are a number of factors that can play into this.

DaMook · 12-12-2011, 05:42 PM

Sure that's a small sample, anything an happen over a handle full of games. It's possible for this to happen over a full season, I'm not saying it can't. But this isn't suppose to happen consistently over many many seasons. There is a flaw in the system of the game that allows situations like this to happen too often. A majority of the time, a positive run differential should lead to a winning season.

In the last 6 seasons of real-life MLB, only 1 team has ended with a losing record when having a +30 or more run differential. It's a rare occurrence in real life, but in the game it's happening all the time. Something isn't right.

McGuiser · 12-12-2011, 06:40 PM

I don't see much of a flaw here, either. Have you looked at other teams to observe the relationship between runs scored and wins?

I would expect a rough correlation, but if the correlation were too exact we would all complain about iOOTP lacking the surprise factor that makes real life baseball interesting.

soadeathdealer · 12-12-2011, 06:49 PM

theres not a flaw u need to look at all aspects of ur team

not just those two . like for one, zone ratings have a lot to do with ur team winning or losing . and lot of things come into play just look at eveything
and not just those two things

CD1083 · 12-12-2011, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaMook

Sure that's a small sample, anything an happen over a handle full of games. It's possible for this to happen over a full season, I'm not saying it can't. But this isn't suppose to happen consistently over many many seasons. There is a flaw in the system of the game that allows situations like this to happen too often. A majority of the time, a positive run differential should lead to a winning season.

In the last 6 seasons of real-life MLB, only 1 team has ended with a losing record when having a +30 or more run differential. It's a rare occurrence in real life, but in the game it's happening all the time. Something isn't right.

What's with the arbitrary number of 30+ run differential?

2011 MLB Regular Season Standings - Major League Baseball - ESPN

You can go season to season and see a number of anomalies. It's not as rare as you might think.

DaMook · 12-13-2011, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Chase Davis

What's with the arbitrary number of 30+ run differential?

2011 MLB Regular Season Standings - Major League Baseball - ESPN

You can go season to season and see a number of anomalies. It's not as rare as you might think.

I just used 30 randomly, but even if you reduce it you still get a small number of situations where a team with a positive run differential ends with a losing record. It just doesn't happen very often.

I'm not sure how else to explain it. In real life it's not happening, but in the game it happens all of the time. If the game is trying to recreate real life performances, then there is flaw in the game. It's not my opinion, it's a statistical fact.

It would be the same if the game produced seasons where the average HR total was over 100. That doesn't happen in real life, that would be a flaw in the game.

DaMook · 12-13-2011, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McGuiser

I don't see much of a flaw here, either. Have you looked at other teams to observe the relationship between runs scored and wins?

I would expect a rough correlation, but if the correlation were too exact we would all complain about iOOTP lacking the surprise factor that makes real life baseball interesting.

This would matter if I was just complaining about a single season, which I'm not. I've looked at what happens in real life, and runs scored and runs allows have a direct correlating to wins and losses. In real life, almost all the time a positive run differential results in a winning season. This is a statistical fact. In the game that is not the case.

CD1083 · 12-13-2011, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaMook

I just used 30 randomly, but even if you reduce it you still get a small number of situations where a team with a positive run differential ends with a losing record. It just doesn't happen very often.

I'm not sure how else to explain it. In real life it's not happening, but in the game it happens all of the time. If the game is trying to recreate real life performances, then there is flaw in the game. It's not my opinion, it's a statistical fact.

It would be the same if the game produced seasons where the average HR total was over 100. That doesn't happen in real life, that would be a flaw in the game.

Is it happening to other teams?

Walsh06 · 12-15-2011, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Chase Davis

Is it happening to other teams?

This^^

Its not an AI issue if you have not set tactics right or got bad back ups who cause losses or various other things that come from YOUR management of YOUR team. Thats not AI, thats a flaw in you.

McGuiser · 12-15-2011, 12:11 PM

On the other hand, Walsh 06, it's hard to fault a manager who leads the league in runs produced and runs allowed.

Is there any better metric by which to judge the manager of an iOOTP season?

The discrepancy between the runs scored/allowed differential and the wins total seems, according to my friend William of Ockham, due to the happily irregular distribution of runs, the mix of those 12-1 and 1-0 games.

Walsh06 · 12-17-2011, 01:52 PM

I would find it quite easy to fault you actually if you werent producing wins.

McGuiser · 12-17-2011, 04:49 PM

I probably know far less about baseball than you do, DaMook, but I do not know how any manager (IRL or in iOOTP) can defeat the inherent randomization of scoring.

If your experience is like mine (and like the 2011 Phillies' experience), there are just days when you waste a great pitching performance (losing, say, 1-0) and then those days when you crush some team 11-2.

Do you follow/trust at all any of those systems (like Jeff Sagarin's) that try to get beyond wins and losses, to rank teams by scoring differential (and other factors)?

My guess would be that such systems are of intense interest to gamblers and are mildly amusing to people who enjoy numbers. I count myself among the latter, but don't check out Sagarin very often.

DaMook · 12-19-2011, 02:05 AM

I'm very much a SABR head. I believe that you can analyze and predict to a certain degree the performance of a team and a single player. SABR stats have been proven time and time again to be very accurate. One of the key discoveries by the SABR community is that runs scored and runs allowed are directly connected to wins and loses. If you go through past season, you will see great proof that a positive run differential almost always leads to a winning record.

I do also believe that there are human factors at play that can't be quantified. And I do believe that these variables have play a large role in creating anomalies in the system. I acknowledge that, but for these anomalies to happen on a consistent basis in the game just proves to me that there is some kind of flaw in the brains behind the game. Hopefully the developers see this and fix it.

CD1083 · 12-19-2011, 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaMook

I'm very much a SABR head. I believe that you can analyze and predict to a certain degree the performance of a team and a single player. SABR stats have been proven time and time again to be very accurate. One of the key discoveries by the SABR community is that runs scored and runs allowed are directly connected to wins and loses. If you go through past season, you will see great proof that a positive run differential almost always leads to a winning record.

I do also believe that there are human factors at play that can't be quantified. And I do believe that these variables have play a large role in creating anomalies in the system. I acknowledge that, but for these anomalies to happen on a consistent basis in the game just proves to me that there is some kind of flaw in the brains behind the game. Hopefully the developers see this and fix it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Chase Davis

Is it happening to other teams?

.

jaxmagicman · 12-19-2011, 09:18 AM

Just one?

12-11-2011, 09:31 PM	#1
DaMook All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 534	There is a flaw in the AI I thought this was a fluke at first, but it's been happening consistently over multiple seasons. I just finished the season with a losing record and in 4th place even though I lead the division in runs scored and allowed and I was 7th in runs scored and 2nd in runs allowed in the league. This has happend a bunch of times already. One or two seasons of this would be fine, but for this to consistently happen seems like an issue to me. Has anyone experienced this?

12-12-2011, 06:49 PM	#9
soadeathdealer Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: VA Posts: 2,152	theres not a flaw u need to look at all aspects of ur team not just those two . like for one, zone ratings have a lot to do with ur team winning or losing . and lot of things come into play just look at eveything and not just those two things __________________ Jerseys and caps/logos and more http://s39.photobucket.com/albums/e1...%20and%20caps/ Leagues OOTP POTD: Vermont/Co-Commish MTBL: League Closed The Show: Jacksonville Bombers RFTP : Braves/co-commish: League Closed HRBL: Commish: League Closed DDSPF WWPF- Miami CSFL- Tampa USFL: New Orleans DDSCF SNCFL: Florida/ JMU

12-19-2011, 09:18 AM	#20
jaxmagicman Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Retired defloration-maker living in Myrtle Beach, SC Posts: 7,801	Just one? __________________ See ID Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of MLB Advanced Media, L.P. Minor League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with the permission of Minor League Baseball. All rights reserved.

12-12-2011, 07:09 AM	#4
phillupi All Star Reserve Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 814	Should is the key factor. I don't see how this is a flaw. Many factors go into wins and loses. Try a different team and see what happens with that team and then see what your original team did with the AI manager. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

12-12-2011, 08:58 AM	#5
DaMook All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 534	A few times is fine, but this is happening almost every time. Statistically that shouldn't happen.

12-12-2011, 09:09 AM	#6
CD1083 All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 1,590	When you win you win big, when you lose you lose by a smaller run differential. If I play 10 games: 1. W - 11-2 2. L - 3-4 3. L - 0-1 4. W - 5-1 5. L - 7-8 6. W - 7-4 7. L - 1-2 8. L - 5-8 9. W - 12-4 10. L - 2-3 I scored 53 runs and gave up 37 runs. I have a losing record (4-6). There are a number of factors that can play into this.

12-12-2011, 05:42 PM	#7
DaMook All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 534	Sure that's a small sample, anything an happen over a handle full of games. It's possible for this to happen over a full season, I'm not saying it can't. But this isn't suppose to happen consistently over many many seasons. There is a flaw in the system of the game that allows situations like this to happen too often. A majority of the time, a positive run differential should lead to a winning season. In the last 6 seasons of real-life MLB, only 1 team has ended with a losing record when having a +30 or more run differential. It's a rare occurrence in real life, but in the game it's happening all the time. Something isn't right.

12-12-2011, 06:40 PM	#8
McGuiser Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 363	I don't see much of a flaw here, either. Have you looked at other teams to observe the relationship between runs scored and wins? I would expect a rough correlation, but if the correlation were too exact we would all complain about iOOTP lacking the surprise factor that makes real life baseball interesting.

12-15-2011, 12:11 PM	#15
McGuiser Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 363	On the other hand, Walsh 06, it's hard to fault a manager who leads the league in runs produced and runs allowed. Is there any better metric by which to judge the manager of an iOOTP season? The discrepancy between the runs scored/allowed differential and the wins total seems, according to my friend William of Ockham, due to the happily irregular distribution of runs, the mix of those 12-1 and 1-0 games.

12-17-2011, 01:52 PM	#16
Walsh06 All Star Reserve Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 545	I would find it quite easy to fault you actually if you werent producing wins.

12-17-2011, 04:49 PM	#17
McGuiser Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 363	I probably know far less about baseball than you do, DaMook, but I do not know how any manager (IRL or in iOOTP) can defeat the inherent randomization of scoring. If your experience is like mine (and like the 2011 Phillies' experience), there are just days when you waste a great pitching performance (losing, say, 1-0) and then those days when you crush some team 11-2. Do you follow/trust at all any of those systems (like Jeff Sagarin's) that try to get beyond wins and losses, to rank teams by scoring differential (and other factors)? My guess would be that such systems are of intense interest to gamblers and are mildly amusing to people who enjoy numbers. I count myself among the latter, but don't check out Sagarin very often.

12-19-2011, 02:05 AM	#18
DaMook All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 534	I'm very much a SABR head. I believe that you can analyze and predict to a certain degree the performance of a team and a single player. SABR stats have been proven time and time again to be very accurate. One of the key discoveries by the SABR community is that runs scored and runs allowed are directly connected to wins and loses. If you go through past season, you will see great proof that a positive run differential almost always leads to a winning record. I do also believe that there are human factors at play that can't be quantified. And I do believe that these variables have play a large role in creating anomalies in the system. I acknowledge that, but for these anomalies to happen on a consistent basis in the game just proves to me that there is some kind of flaw in the brains behind the game. Hopefully the developers see this and fix it.