Scouts over rating minor league players?

Oli987 · 11-04-2011, 03:46 PM

I'm fairly new to the game and currently playing as the Royals. Obviously as I have a small budget I'm favouring prospects and good minor league players when making trades. But one thing I have noticed is that my scout regularly rates minor leaguers in their late 20s very highly, even though they've rarely played in the majors despite being aged 27-30. And OSA will always give these players a much lower rating, usually between 7-10 (out of 20) for most stats.

For example, I'm currently looking a guy called Terry Evans. He's 29, and his career to date consists of 20 appearances for the Angels over the last 3 seasons and is currently in AAA. My scout rates him at 4 stars with batting ratings of 14/15/14/10/7. OSA says 8/9/10/7/3.

I know OSA is supposed to be less accurate, but surely if my scout was right he wouldn't be down in AAA. But on the other hand, why would my scout rate players so highly, who have quite obviously failed to achieve much in their careers, without a good reason for it?

AESP_pres · 11-04-2011, 08:48 PM

You never know maybe he is like Jeff Fassero and Bryn Smith who start playing well in the major at the age of 28.

Biggio509 · 11-10-2011, 03:13 PM

Are you talking potential ratings or current?

For current one thing is the rating is based just on ratings. Using AI evaluation can help with this. If under game options you click use AI evaluation instead of pure ratings the rating becomes a mixture of the player's stats and his ratings. The ratings for this guy that the scout sees are pretty good for most leagues. So I can see why the scout says 4 stars if he thinks those ratings are correct. He may be in AAA simply because they have had better players on the roster. My guess is he is an OF. OF in my experience have more depth of good players than IF or catcher.

Sometimes the scout still thinks a guy has a high ceiling with potential despite the fact his age is where he is unlikely to improve much. Sometimes even with guys in the org for a long time where scouting should be accurate don't perform to what you think their ratings should show sometimes they over perform. Sometimes guys just have a slump when first called up.

Although, I have noticed overrating is more likely for prospects in general. See how many 5 stars at draft times turn into 1 scrubs by next year. A lot of this depends on how much you spend on scouting and how good your scout. A 29 or 30 y/o in AAA should be pretty accurate if he has been in the org since he was drafted but if he is a recent minor league free agent signing it could be far off. Generally OSA is the bottom range and your scout is the top range but that does not always work sometimes your scout underrates guys too. Players with ML experience often are closer to true ratings from both sets of scouts than minor league guys.

11-04-2011, 03:46 PM	#1
Oli987 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 20	Scouts over rating minor league players? I'm fairly new to the game and currently playing as the Royals. Obviously as I have a small budget I'm favouring prospects and good minor league players when making trades. But one thing I have noticed is that my scout regularly rates minor leaguers in their late 20s very highly, even though they've rarely played in the majors despite being aged 27-30. And OSA will always give these players a much lower rating, usually between 7-10 (out of 20) for most stats. For example, I'm currently looking a guy called Terry Evans. He's 29, and his career to date consists of 20 appearances for the Angels over the last 3 seasons and is currently in AAA. My scout rates him at 4 stars with batting ratings of 14/15/14/10/7. OSA says 8/9/10/7/3. I know OSA is supposed to be less accurate, but surely if my scout was right he wouldn't be down in AAA. But on the other hand, why would my scout rate players so highly, who have quite obviously failed to achieve much in their careers, without a good reason for it?

11-04-2011, 08:48 PM	#2
AESP_pres Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Province of Quebec Posts: 4,139	You never know maybe he is like Jeff Fassero and Bryn Smith who start playing well in the major at the age of 28.

11-10-2011, 03:13 PM	#3
Biggio509 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,027	Are you talking potential ratings or current? For current one thing is the rating is based just on ratings. Using AI evaluation can help with this. If under game options you click use AI evaluation instead of pure ratings the rating becomes a mixture of the player's stats and his ratings. The ratings for this guy that the scout sees are pretty good for most leagues. So I can see why the scout says 4 stars if he thinks those ratings are correct. He may be in AAA simply because they have had better players on the roster. My guess is he is an OF. OF in my experience have more depth of good players than IF or catcher. Sometimes the scout still thinks a guy has a high ceiling with potential despite the fact his age is where he is unlikely to improve much. Sometimes even with guys in the org for a long time where scouting should be accurate don't perform to what you think their ratings should show sometimes they over perform. Sometimes guys just have a slump when first called up. Although, I have noticed overrating is more likely for prospects in general. See how many 5 stars at draft times turn into 1 scrubs by next year. A lot of this depends on how much you spend on scouting and how good your scout. A 29 or 30 y/o in AAA should be pretty accurate if he has been in the org since he was drafted but if he is a recent minor league free agent signing it could be far off. Generally OSA is the bottom range and your scout is the top range but that does not always work sometimes your scout underrates guys too. Players with ML experience often are closer to true ratings from both sets of scouts than minor league guys.