What do you use to judge whether or not a prospect is ready to advance?

Metsman · 07-12-2011, 01:38 PM

What indicates to you that a prospect can move up either in the minors or that he can make the jump to the mlb?

MizzouRah · 07-12-2011, 01:53 PM

Not really one particular thing..

1. Check the minor league report to see if it says he could be ready.
2. Stats/Ratings, definitely good stats and good ratings = he might be ready to make the jump.
3. NEED - sometimes I just bring him up because of a need and he's the best available.
4. I've had a few prospects make the jump and have horrible first seasons, only to come back the next season and play great. My thoughts are that first year was an adjustment year.

If they continue to play bad, I put them back in the minors.

Erik · 07-12-2011, 01:53 PM

Usually if I think a guy is ready to go and I can give him ample playing time I'll bring him up. If he struggles after a few weeks I'll send him back down. Not sure if this is the proper or best way to do it, but its what I usually do. I have the #20 something best pitching prospect in the league but after about 2 months he had around a 5.40 ERA and wasn't effective in the majors, so I moved him down to AAA. He was pitching better down there but is injured now.

D-BacksJosh · 07-12-2011, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Not really one particular thing..

1. Check the minor league report to see if it says he could be ready.
2. Stats/Ratings, definitely good stats and good ratings = he might be ready to make the jump.
3. NEED - sometimes I just bring him up because of a need and he's the best available.
4. I've had a few prospects make the jump and have horrible first seasons, only to come back the next season and play great. My thoughts are that first year was an adjustment year.

If they continue to play bad, I put them back in the minors.

All of the above, most definitely a consistent stat sheet to prove he is ready for the next level.

awick · 07-12-2011, 02:09 PM

Need at the next higher level often drives a promotion. But if a guy puts up good stats at one level over a full season, then I'm looking to move him up. I look at his ratings, scouting reports, the minor league system report, etc. too, but mostly to confirm the statistical performance I can see directly.

With really superior numbers I will look for a way to create an opportunity to promote a player a little faster, but I want at least half a season at each level.

With top-level draftees, usually college players, I might start them off as high as class A, skipping the lowest levels of the minors.

Curve Ball Dave · 07-12-2011, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Not really one particular thing..

1. Check the minor league report to see if it says he could be ready.
2. Stats/Ratings, definitely good stats and good ratings = he might be ready to make the jump.
3. NEED - sometimes I just bring him up because of a need and he's the best available.
4. I've had a few prospects make the jump and have horrible first seasons, only to come back the next season and play great. My thoughts are that first year was an adjustment year.

If they continue to play bad, I put them back in the minors.

All of the above. There is never just one thing. I've promoted guys with so so ratings and great stats, and guys with great ratings and so so stats. There is no magic formula. Some guys hit, others miss.

To point #3 above, often guys have been promoted not because I thought they were any good or ready, but because the DL was filled a mile long with players and they were the last warm body standing.

cblacker · 07-12-2011, 10:23 PM

Was reading an article about the Future's Game and they mentioned Tim Beckham, who was the Rays top pick a couple of years ago. It seemed to me, at least, that he was being promoted through the system despite very lackluster stats. They must really like his potential.

bailey · 07-12-2011, 10:26 PM

I'm trying ERA+ or OPS+ above 150 as a guide. Have no idea if that's effective or not. Online leagues move at a glacial pace and I won't know if this is an effective tool or not for several years.

dmarco82 · 07-12-2011, 10:36 PM

Stats first. If the guy has out-performed the current level, he is likely ready for the next one.

After that, look at the ratings compared to potential. If the player has current ratings that are very close to his potential and he is putting up good stats, it seems likely that he will perfom at the next level, as well.

If the player has ratings that are very close to his potential in most areas, but is lacking in one, they may still be worth bringing up. For example, if I have a 23 year old batter who is performing well at AAA (good stats) and has ratings that are close to potential, except for Power, he might still be a good candidate for promotion, knowing that Power develops later.

On pitchers, the tricky part for me is always control. Sometimes you can promote a pitcher lacking some control and once they get to the Majors, they learn control. Other times, they do not. I don't really have a good read on what makes them develop control.

Xero · 07-12-2011, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dmarco82

Stats first. If the guy has out-performed the current level, he is likely ready for the next one.

After that, look at the ratings compared to potential. If the player has current ratings that are very close to his potential and he is putting up good stats, it seems likely that he will perfom at the next level, as well.

If the player has ratings that are very close to his potential in most areas, but is lacking in one, they may still be worth bringing up. For example, if I have a 23 year old batter who is performing well at AAA (good stats) and has ratings that are close to potential, except for Power, he might still be a good candidate for promotion, knowing that Power develops later.

On pitchers, the tricky part for me is always control. Sometimes you can promote a pitcher lacking some control and once they get to the Majors, they learn control. Other times, they do not. I don't really have a good read on what makes them develop control.

The is the case for me as well. I have pitchers that develop great stuff and great movement in the minors and put up monster stats. But when I call them up to the majors, they seems to lack control and develop it very slowly. This is the case for me for 25, 26 year old pitchers whos had quite a few years in the minors.

damientheomen3 · 07-12-2011, 11:40 PM

I usually play stats only nowadays, so I use minor league stats (never ever put a guy straight from the draft to the majors). But if a guy is struggling in the majors, or if he's doing just average in the majors, I send him back down. Once I had a prospect that I had drafted first overall in the league's first draft (tanking for the first 3 months of the league FTW!) and he pitched pretty well in A and AA all year, so next season I tried him out in spring. He posted a 4.50 ERA, which I didn't feel was good enough for a major league stint yet. I put him in the minors, and he went like 5-0 with a 2.00 ERA (or something close) in a month in AAA, so I put him back in the majors. A couple of months later he's like 3-5 with a 4.35 ERA or something like that, so I sent him back down (I have a fear that I'll ruin prospects if I bring them up too early, so I wanted to make sure he was close to being ready). He finished the year something like 17-2 in AAA. Next few years he was a dominant force in the majors.

beorn · 07-13-2011, 07:25 AM

What others have said above, except maybe need... I am very cautious about bringing my best prospects up to the majors before other indicators tell me they are ready. There's usually some vet FA who will play nearly as well as a not-quite-ready hot prospect, and you avoid damaging the prospect.

The thing I did not see mentioned above is age. For a player to develop fully, he needs to advance through the system by the time he is 25. It seems to me that most prospects do not make their final improvements until they spend time in the majors, and they are unlikely to develop any further at all once they reach age 26. (I ran an extensive test on this several versions back and got the impression it was hard coded. If I had to guess, I'd say it is still a very strong tendency, but maybe not absolute?) So if I see a 24 year old with promising potential below AAA, I feel the need to move him up or lose all hope, same with a 23 year old in the low minors.

Conversely, a really young player? No rush at all. Unless his morale is tanking, it does no harm to give him extra months to develop, even if he is dominating the league. Not only does this maximize the chances of reaching his full potential, but you also avoid his becoming a free agent at age 28.

Big T · 07-13-2011, 01:54 PM

I personally like to wait and evaluate them when they qualify for Rule 5 draft. This allows me to develop them to the fullest. I play stats only when dealing with my club and allow my minor league managers to handle the promotions up to AAA. So I evaluate my 40 man roster at the end of each season about 5 days prior to the Rule 5 Draft to allow for an opportunity to put a player that i plan to Waive and Designated through "Offer to All". So basically if a player that qualifies for the Rule 5 is in triple A and putting up the numbers, I add them to my 40 man and give them a shot to make the club at spring training.

The second way to get promoted out of AAA is during the season as an injury replacement, again as long as they are qualified for the upcoming Rule 5 draft and their is room on the 40 man roster.

As previously mentioned, this ensures my guy doesn't get promoted to the 40 man too early then ends up being a free agent at age 27-28 just after he finally develops.

Having said that, I am patient and it may not be the best approach..

mouse001 · 07-13-2011, 02:09 PM

In my stats only days, just stats

Now it's a mix of stats and ratings but stats > ratings.

If I have two players with similar stats, the one with better ratings gets the promotion.

Consistent stats are somewhat important but the way I figure it, it's the minors and players are learning. If they were bad for three seasons but are tearing it up now maybe he figured it all out

07-12-2011, 01:38 PM	#1
Metsman Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 26	What do you use to judge whether or not a prospect is ready to advance? What indicates to you that a prospect can move up either in the minors or that he can make the jump to the mlb?

07-13-2011, 07:25 AM	#12
beorn All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: near Rochester, NY Posts: 1,269	What others have said above, except maybe need... I am very cautious about bringing my best prospects up to the majors before other indicators tell me they are ready. There's usually some vet FA who will play nearly as well as a not-quite-ready hot prospect, and you avoid damaging the prospect. The thing I did not see mentioned above is age. For a player to develop fully, he needs to advance through the system by the time he is 25. It seems to me that most prospects do not make their final improvements until they spend time in the majors, and they are unlikely to develop any further at all once they reach age 26. (I ran an extensive test on this several versions back and got the impression it was hard coded. If I had to guess, I'd say it is still a very strong tendency, but maybe not absolute?) So if I see a 24 year old with promising potential below AAA, I feel the need to move him up or lose all hope, same with a 23 year old in the low minors. Conversely, a really young player? No rush at all. Unless his morale is tanking, it does no harm to give him extra months to develop, even if he is dominating the league. Not only does this maximize the chances of reaching his full potential, but you also avoid his becoming a free agent at age 28. __________________ Commish of Dog Days Baseball Commish Pennant Chase Baseball League (PCBL) Commish and Blue Jays GM Extra Innings Baseball

07-12-2011, 01:53 PM	#2
MizzouRah Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Troy, Mo Posts: 6,266	Not really one particular thing.. 1. Check the minor league report to see if it says he could be ready. 2. Stats/Ratings, definitely good stats and good ratings = he might be ready to make the jump. 3. NEED - sometimes I just bring him up because of a need and he's the best available. 4. I've had a few prospects make the jump and have horrible first seasons, only to come back the next season and play great. My thoughts are that first year was an adjustment year. If they continue to play bad, I put them back in the minors.

07-12-2011, 01:53 PM	#3
Erik All Star Reserve Join Date: May 2002 Posts: 505	Usually if I think a guy is ready to go and I can give him ample playing time I'll bring him up. If he struggles after a few weeks I'll send him back down. Not sure if this is the proper or best way to do it, but its what I usually do. I have the #20 something best pitching prospect in the league but after about 2 months he had around a 5.40 ERA and wasn't effective in the majors, so I moved him down to AAA. He was pitching better down there but is injured now.

07-12-2011, 02:09 PM	#5
awick Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Lansing, NY Posts: 313	Need at the next higher level often drives a promotion. But if a guy puts up good stats at one level over a full season, then I'm looking to move him up. I look at his ratings, scouting reports, the minor league system report, etc. too, but mostly to confirm the statistical performance I can see directly. With really superior numbers I will look for a way to create an opportunity to promote a player a little faster, but I want at least half a season at each level. With top-level draftees, usually college players, I might start them off as high as class A, skipping the lowest levels of the minors.

07-12-2011, 10:23 PM	#7
cblacker Major Leagues Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 324	Was reading an article about the Future's Game and they mentioned Tim Beckham, who was the Rays top pick a couple of years ago. It seemed to me, at least, that he was being promoted through the system despite very lackluster stats. They must really like his potential.

07-12-2011, 10:26 PM	#8
bailey Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,421	I'm trying ERA+ or OPS+ above 150 as a guide. Have no idea if that's effective or not. Online leagues move at a glacial pace and I won't know if this is an effective tool or not for several years.

07-12-2011, 10:36 PM	#9
dmarco82 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: St. Louis, MO Posts: 46	Stats first. If the guy has out-performed the current level, he is likely ready for the next one. After that, look at the ratings compared to potential. If the player has current ratings that are very close to his potential and he is putting up good stats, it seems likely that he will perfom at the next level, as well. If the player has ratings that are very close to his potential in most areas, but is lacking in one, they may still be worth bringing up. For example, if I have a 23 year old batter who is performing well at AAA (good stats) and has ratings that are close to potential, except for Power, he might still be a good candidate for promotion, knowing that Power develops later. On pitchers, the tricky part for me is always control. Sometimes you can promote a pitcher lacking some control and once they get to the Majors, they learn control. Other times, they do not. I don't really have a good read on what makes them develop control.

07-13-2011, 01:54 PM	#13
Big T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 3,878	I personally like to wait and evaluate them when they qualify for Rule 5 draft. This allows me to develop them to the fullest. I play stats only when dealing with my club and allow my minor league managers to handle the promotions up to AAA. So I evaluate my 40 man roster at the end of each season about 5 days prior to the Rule 5 Draft to allow for an opportunity to put a player that i plan to Waive and Designated through "Offer to All". So basically if a player that qualifies for the Rule 5 is in triple A and putting up the numbers, I add them to my 40 man and give them a shot to make the club at spring training. The second way to get promoted out of AAA is during the season as an injury replacement, again as long as they are qualified for the upcoming Rule 5 draft and their is room on the 40 man roster. As previously mentioned, this ensures my guy doesn't get promoted to the 40 man too early then ends up being a free agent at age 27-28 just after he finally develops. Having said that, I am patient and it may not be the best approach..

07-13-2011, 02:09 PM	#14
mouse001 Major Leagues Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 343	In my stats only days, just stats Now it's a mix of stats and ratings but stats > ratings. If I have two players with similar stats, the one with better ratings gets the promotion. Consistent stats are somewhat important but the way I figure it, it's the minors and players are learning. If they were bad for three seasons but are tearing it up now maybe he figured it all out