Do players have pre-determined off-day in OOTP?

SiN8 · 07-05-2011, 12:16 PM

When I'm playing out a game and my ace is having a horrible time, I often wonder if I'm just running into a string of bad luck events or whether the pitcher is having a off day.

For example, let's say my pitcher normally only allows .250 avg and he gives up 3 hits in a row. I could just be unlucky with probability of 25% * 25% * 25% = 1.5%. Or perhaps the pitcher entered the game in a funk and is actually destined to have .350 opposing average that day. If it's the former, I'm inclined to leave my ace in since there's low probability he'll give up another string of hits. But if it's the latter, I'm pulling him right away before more damage is done.

In other sports simulations like Football Managers, there's a concept of consistency. A player will normally perform up his his ratings, but occasionally could enter a game at say 70% of his optimal ratings. This is to simulate off days where the player might be bothered by a personal problem or had a late night out. Is there such a concept in OOTP?

Big T · 07-05-2011, 12:58 PM

Well I can tell you from playing the game for serveral years that "hot" and "cold" streaks are part of real life and are part of the game...

Cliff Lee gave up 3 HRs against the Jays on the weekend in one inning, he had gone 30+ scoreless prior to that inning...

I have also seen my stud start go 0-3 with a 9.50 ERA over the past 4 games... Is it pre-determined..... who knows.. But thats the beauty of sports in general, nothing is pre-determined in real life..

OutS|der · 07-05-2011, 01:05 PM

i don't think there is anything like that in this game or in football manager. i could see it being hidden for the game then show up as a cold streak after the game but pre-determined to have just a bad day on random i would hope not.
if this was true I'm sure there would of been an outcry by now considering how the boards for these games are, so I'm going with that it's not in the game

RonCo · 07-05-2011, 01:06 PM

Assuming your ace gives up a .250 average, as you note, he'll give up three hits in a row 1.5% of the time. So that means in any string of 102 batters, you can expect him to give up a string of three hits 1-2 times. If this ace faces about 34 hitters a game, then it's not too hard to predict that he will give up three hits in a row about every third game. In fact, it would be more unusual if he didn't give up three in a row at that rate than if he did.

Big T · 07-05-2011, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

Assuming your ace gives up a .250 average, as you note, he'll give up three hits in a row 1.5% of the time. So that means in any string of 102 batters, you can expect him to give up a string of three hits 1-2 times. If this ace faces about 34 hitters a game, then it's not too hard to predict that he will give up three hits in a row about every third game. In fact, it would be more unusual if he didn't give up three in a row at that rate than if he did.

Math expert? Show off.....

Dr. dru · 07-05-2011, 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SiN8

When I'm playing out a game and my ace is having a horrible time, I often wonder if I'm just running into a string of bad luck events or whether the pitcher is having a off day.

For example, let's say my pitcher normally only allows .250 avg and he gives up 3 hits in a row. I could just be unlucky with probability of 25% * 25% * 25% = 1.5%. Or perhaps the pitcher entered the game in a funk and is actually destined to have .350 opposing average that day. If it's the former, I'm inclined to leave my ace in since there's low probability he'll give up another string of hits. But if it's the latter, I'm pulling him right away before more damage is done.

In other sports simulations like Football Managers, there's a concept of consistency. A player will normally perform up his his ratings, but occasionally could enter a game at say 70% of his optimal ratings. This is to simulate off days where the player might be bothered by a personal problem or had a late night out. Is there such a concept in OOTP?

I personally believe that guys are programmed to have a bad day from time to time. I don't have any real proof of that, but from my experience some things can't be explained by probability in my opinion.

RonCo · 07-05-2011, 01:16 PM

Most people have trouble with the concept of random numbers and streaks. For example, the probability that a coin will come up heads 5 times in a row are also about 1.5%. Hence, if you flip a coin 105 times, you're more likely than not to get 5-in a row at some time. So the appearance of a 5-heads run in that sample size is not necessarily a hot streak in that no other outside factor needs to be attributed to the system to provide this result beyond the natural outcomes of randomness.

If you flip 10-straight heads in 105 flips, however, or if you flip 5-straight heads 10 times in those 105 flips, then it's highly likely that you're playing a rigged coin (or that there's a substantial "streak factor" being applied to the game).

SiN8 · 07-05-2011, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OutS|der

i don't think there is anything like that in this game or in football manager. i could see it being hidden for the game then show up as a cold streak after the game but pre-determined to have just a bad day on random i would hope not.
if this was true I'm sure there would of been an outcry by now considering how the boards for these games are, so I'm going with that it's not in the game

In football manager, there is a hidden rating called consistency. The higher the consistency, the more often a player will enter a game with his peak ability.

Let's a player has a rating of 15, but he's hampered with low consistency. On half of the games, he's playing with the 15 rating, but the other half, he'll be at 10,11, etc... It's not guaranteed that he'll have good games on the days with 15 and poor ones on the rest, but it does become more probable. As a manager, if I see the player doing poorly in the first half, I'd sub him on the basis of inconsistency. However, if there's no concept of consistency, then I'd leave him in knowing that the poor first half is due to bad luck.

RonCo · 07-05-2011, 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big T

Math expert? Show off.....

Hey, the OP is the one who did the math. I just applied it to the situation in a way I think helps understand things better.

Of course, not everyone thinks like I think.

SiN8 · 07-05-2011, 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

Hey, the OP is the one who did the math. I just applied it to the situation in a way I think helps understand things better.

Of course, not everyone thinks like I think.

Just ignore my math example. Obviously poorly chosen.

The question is more about whether I should pull a pitcher after a series of bad events. If a player always plays up to their ratings, then I should leave my ace in as his success probability will always be higher than my lower rated relievers.

Big T · 07-05-2011, 01:27 PM

Well I for one like the fact that there are random hot and cold streaks and that players are not predictable to the point that we can not see Cliff Lee to look like a AA call up for a few starts and then look like the second coming of Dennis Martinez (for you Expos fans) in the next couple...

Big T · 07-05-2011, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SiN8

Just ignore my math example. Obviously poorly chosen.

The question is more about whether I should pull a pitcher after a series of bad events. If a player always plays up to their ratings, then I should leave my ace in as his success probability will always be higher than my lower rated relievers.

I think this is simular to what real life managers face...

Do you think that he will get his crap together or is he having an off night and get him out of there... again this is what is fun about the game, I don't want to know whether my starter is having a bad game and can cheat and pull him early. From what I have seen of the game, it could go either way and this basically means to me that is it not pre-determined.

Dr. dru · 07-05-2011, 01:37 PM

There is no question that there are guys that play well over their heads and well under their heads for an extended period of time. These "streaks" can not be based on statistica alone. This aspect of the game is one of the things that make the game so great. Overall guy will generally play to their ratings, but guys can go months or even long on hot or cold streaks. This is very realistic and probably what makes the game so darn addicting.

beorn · 07-05-2011, 01:38 PM

In real life, most managers believe that a pitcher does or does not have his best stuff each day, and that a hitter is hot or not.

When I play out OOTP games, I believe the same.

In both cases, people debate a lot as to whether it's really true or just random events... but I know that the game feels right.

RonCo · 07-05-2011, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SiN8

Just ignore my math example. Obviously poorly chosen.

The question is more about whether I should pull a pitcher after a series of bad events. If a player always plays up to their ratings, then I should leave my ace in as his success probability will always be higher than my lower rated relievers.

It's not poorly chosen at all. It's a perfectly good example with which to frame the question.

RonCo · 07-05-2011, 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beorn

In real life, most managers believe that a pitcher does or does not have his best stuff each day, and that a hitter is hot or not.

When I play out OOTP games, I believe the same.

In both cases, people debate a lot as to whether it's really true or just random events... but I know that the game feels right.

The "right answer" (whatever that is) is that it's probably a bit of both going on, but it's about impossible to separate out the difference.

ricko · 07-05-2011, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

Most people have trouble with the concept of random numbers and streaks. For example, the probability that a coin will come up heads 5 times in a row are also about 1.5%. Hence, if you flip a coin 105 times, you're more likely than not to get 5-in a row at some time. So the appearance of a 5-heads run in that sample size is not necessarily a hot streak in that no other outside factor needs to be attributed to the system to provide this result beyond the natural outcomes of randomness.

If you flip 10-straight heads in 105 flips, however, or if you flip 5-straight heads 10 times in those 105 flips, then it's highly likely that you're playing a rigged coin (or that there's a substantial "streak factor" being applied to the game).

Rosencrantz, er, Guildentstern, is that you?

Big T · 07-05-2011, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beorn

In real life, most managers believe that a pitcher does or does not have his best stuff each day, and that a hitter is hot or not.

When I play out OOTP games, I believe the same.

In both cases, people debate a lot as to whether it's really true or just random events... but I know that the game feels right.

Some other things to consider, how many days rest was he working on, recently coming off an injury, how was his velocity compared to normal, what inning and how many pitches thrown?

All things could impact his stuff at that time.

Biggio509 · 07-05-2011, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

So the appearance of a 5-heads run in that sample size is not necessarily a hot streak in that no other outside factor needs to be attributed to the system to provide this result beyond the natural outcomes of randomness.

It is my understanding the game assigns hot or cold streak or in a slump to the outcomes rather than he is a slump his ratings suffer. However, it is worth noting guys can be more likely to have bad days or a string of bad days due to morale. Poor player performance can result in bad morale which handicaps ratings. So yes the unusual streak of not getting a hit for Ted Williams, for instance, can make it harder for him to get a hit in the next game if morale suffers. I am not sure what personal characteristics affect how much performance affects moralw.

SiN8 · 07-05-2011, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big T

I think this is simular to what real life managers face...

Do you think that he will get his crap together or is he having an off night and get him out of there... again this is what is fun about the game, I don't want to know whether my starter is having a bad game and can cheat and pull him early. From what I have seen of the game, it could go either way and this basically means to me that is it not pre-determined.

Yes, it would be similar only if OOTP fluctuates in-game ratings. Then the manager will have to have to make a call between bad luck or off day.

However, if OOTP uses the same ratings all the time, then poor performance is only due to bad luck. Therefore, a manager's decision should always be to stick with the higher rated starter, assuming the other variables like fatigue, morale, etc are equal.

I do think that OOTP does implement some type of rating fluctuation. My edited player projected to hit .285 is at .170 at the all star break. Seems a bit much to be just completely random luck. Just wanted to see if anyone had a definitive answer.

07-05-2011, 12:16 PM	#1
SiN8 Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 108	Do players have pre-determined off-day in OOTP? When I'm playing out a game and my ace is having a horrible time, I often wonder if I'm just running into a string of bad luck events or whether the pitcher is having a off day. For example, let's say my pitcher normally only allows .250 avg and he gives up 3 hits in a row. I could just be unlucky with probability of 25% * 25% * 25% = 1.5%. Or perhaps the pitcher entered the game in a funk and is actually destined to have .350 opposing average that day. If it's the former, I'm inclined to leave my ace in since there's low probability he'll give up another string of hits. But if it's the latter, I'm pulling him right away before more damage is done. In other sports simulations like Football Managers, there's a concept of consistency. A player will normally perform up his his ratings, but occasionally could enter a game at say 70% of his optimal ratings. This is to simulate off days where the player might be bothered by a personal problem or had a late night out. Is there such a concept in OOTP?

07-05-2011, 01:06 PM	#4
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,352	Assuming your ace gives up a .250 average, as you note, he'll give up three hits in a row 1.5% of the time. So that means in any string of 102 batters, you can expect him to give up a string of three hits 1-2 times. If this ace faces about 34 hitters a game, then it's not too hard to predict that he will give up three hits in a row about every third game. In fact, it would be more unusual if he didn't give up three in a row at that rate than if he did. Last edited by RonCo; 07-05-2011 at 01:09 PM.

07-05-2011, 01:37 PM	#13
Dr. dru All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: Boston, MA Posts: 647	There is no question that there are guys that play well over their heads and well under their heads for an extended period of time. These "streaks" can not be based on statistica alone. This aspect of the game is one of the things that make the game so great. Overall guy will generally play to their ratings, but guys can go months or even long on hot or cold streaks. This is very realistic and probably what makes the game so darn addicting. __________________ If you don't feel well play OOTP all night and call me in the morning! Dr. Dru is your doctor. Listen to your doctor. He knows what's best for you.

07-05-2011, 01:38 PM	#14
beorn All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: near Rochester, NY Posts: 1,269	In real life, most managers believe that a pitcher does or does not have his best stuff each day, and that a hitter is hot or not. When I play out OOTP games, I believe the same. In both cases, people debate a lot as to whether it's really true or just random events... but I know that the game feels right. __________________ Commish of Dog Days Baseball Commish Pennant Chase Baseball League (PCBL) Commish and Blue Jays GM Extra Innings Baseball

07-05-2011, 12:58 PM	#2
Big T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 3,878	Well I can tell you from playing the game for serveral years that "hot" and "cold" streaks are part of real life and are part of the game... Cliff Lee gave up 3 HRs against the Jays on the weekend in one inning, he had gone 30+ scoreless prior to that inning... I have also seen my stud start go 0-3 with a 9.50 ERA over the past 4 games... Is it pre-determined..... who knows.. But thats the beauty of sports in general, nothing is pre-determined in real life..

07-05-2011, 01:05 PM	#3
OutS\|der Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: In A Van Down By The River Posts: 2,698 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	i don't think there is anything like that in this game or in football manager. i could see it being hidden for the game then show up as a cold streak after the game but pre-determined to have just a bad day on random i would hope not. if this was true I'm sure there would of been an outcry by now considering how the boards for these games are, so I'm going with that it's not in the game

07-05-2011, 01:16 PM	#7
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,352	Most people have trouble with the concept of random numbers and streaks. For example, the probability that a coin will come up heads 5 times in a row are also about 1.5%. Hence, if you flip a coin 105 times, you're more likely than not to get 5-in a row at some time. So the appearance of a 5-heads run in that sample size is not necessarily a hot streak in that no other outside factor needs to be attributed to the system to provide this result beyond the natural outcomes of randomness. If you flip 10-straight heads in 105 flips, however, or if you flip 5-straight heads 10 times in those 105 flips, then it's highly likely that you're playing a rigged coin (or that there's a substantial "streak factor" being applied to the game).

07-05-2011, 01:27 PM	#11
Big T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 3,878	Well I for one like the fact that there are random hot and cold streaks and that players are not predictable to the point that we can not see Cliff Lee to look like a AA call up for a few starts and then look like the second coming of Dennis Martinez (for you Expos fans) in the next couple...