SP Development of Control

[dmarco82]

I have a highly regarded pitching prospect at AAA who is ready for the majors in all ratings (with stats to back it up) except for control. The pitcher is 24, so he is still young, but starting to get to the point where he should be in the majors.

Is this pitcher more likely to develop control if I promote him to the majors, or do I need to keep him down at AAA until he starts to develop control on his own? Do the ratings of the coaches between the two levels matter? I don't really see how a pitching coach can improve control, but just thought I'd check.

Thanks.

[benallen002]

If it were me, I would just go by his stats at this point. If he is under 4.0 BB/9 in AAA, I'd go ahead and call him up. If he can't even get there though, I'd leave him down for maybe another half a season or so to see if he can get there at AAA, because more than that at the big league level could lead to bad stats all around which could hurt his development.

As far as rating progression goes, I would say as long as his overall rating isn't rock bottom, it wouldn't hurt his development to call him up.

[tejdog1]

What people (including me, at times) forget is, MLB is a developmental stage in a prospect's progression.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by dmarco82

I don't really see how a pitching coach can improve control, but just thought I'd check.

Thanks.

I don't know about OOTP but IRL pitching coaches have a huge influence on control. Typically they teach young flame throwers that 94-95 is just as effective as 98-99 when it is in the strike zone. A perfect example last year was the Jays Brandon Morrow.

[mjj55409]

A prospect won't fully develop--control or anything else--in the minor leagues.

[neugey]

I would be inclined to bring him and let him work as a middle reliever out of the bullpen and get used to the big leagues while refining his control, in hopes that he can be trusted enough to be in the rotation in the following year. Kind of like the Reds are doing w/ Aroldis Chapman now. Haven't tried this strategy in OOTP before though.

[benallen002]

Originally Posted by tejdog1

What people (including me, at times) forget is, MLB is a developmental stage in a prospect's progression.

Originally Posted by mjj55409

A prospect won't fully develop--control or anything else--in the minor leagues.

That was exactly what I was trying to say. But we must also remember that development is (at least in the game) not a one way street. If you bring a guy up too early, then his development is stunted by being at the MLB level and maybe even regresses as opposed to where it would have continued to go if he stayed in the minors another year. There seems to be (to me, anyway) a "sweet spot" as far as when to call a guy up, but it feels like it's better to call a guy up a little too late than a little too soon, and this is where I rely on stats. Until the guy's stats are as good at AAA as I want to see in the majors I keep him down. Maybe this costs me some production on the big league squad for a season or so, but I would rather do that than call him up just because his ratings look good or his age is right and then have him falter coming up and never recovering (this has happened a few times). Just my opinion.

[benallen002]

Originally Posted by neugey

I would be inclined to bring him and let him work as a middle reliever out of the bullpen and get used to the big leagues while refining his control, in hopes that he can be trusted enough to be in the rotation in the following year. Kind of like the Reds are doing w/ Aroldis Chapman now. Haven't tried this strategy in OOTP before though.

This does seem to be a good way to do it and I have been trying to implement it more lately. Gives him a chance for some ML developmental innings while limiting his exposure to really bad performance.

[iBrandon]

So when is the best time to call a guy up? Based on ratings or minor league stats?

[benallen002]

Originally Posted by iBrandon

So when is the best time to call a guy up? Based on ratings or minor league stats?

There isn't a right or wrong answer, I don't think. I was just giving my opinion that, for me, stats have to be there or they don't get the call. Ratings and stats can both be "wrong" (misleading), so I usually go with when they agree with each other. I use potential only though, so basically I look at the guys potential ratings, and when I see stats that are in line with his ratings (i.e. if he is a power hitter and he is slugging .450 or above) then I call him up. If I can, I will put him on the bench for maybe half a season or so to make sure he is ready without putting too much pressure on him.

[neugey]

Originally Posted by iBrandon

So when is the best time to call a guy up? Based on ratings or minor league stats?

Both, I think.

The way I see it, this should usually have more to do with what is going on with your ML team than it does the prospect himself. After all, winning ML games is the over-arching goal.

Is this move necessary because of ML injuries? If not, whose spot will he take on the ML squad? If the person he is displacing is a vet, can the vet be assigned back to the majors (options remaining)? How much does the player being replaced matter to your team (as this move will likely make him quite unhappy)? Would it best to DFA the player being replaced so you can trade him? If you can/do trade him, how much money will you free up in this move?

Also, are there other financial implications with bringing up the prospect (arbitration, free agency, etc)? Not a deal-breaker, but should be in the back of your mind.

Is it close to September 1? If so you may be better off waiting until the roster is expanded to 40, then you don't have to worry about a roster spot and he can get his cup of coffee and the experience needed.

[benallen002]

Originally Posted by neugey

Both, I think.

The way I see it, this should usually have more to do with what is going on with your ML team than it does the prospect himself. After all, winning ML games is the over-arching goal.

Is this move necessary because of ML injuries? If not, whose spot will he take on the ML squad? If the person he is displacing is a vet, can the vet be assigned back to the majors (options remaining)? How much does the player being replaced matter to your team (as this move will likely make him quite unhappy)? Would it best to DFA the player being replaced so you can trade him? If you can/do trade him, how much money will you free up in this move?

Also, are there other financial implications with bringing up the prospect (arbitration, free agency, etc)? Not a deal-breaker, but should be in the back of your mind.

Is it close to September 1? If so you may be better off waiting until the roster is expanded to 40, then you don't have to worry about a roster spot and he can get his cup of coffee and the experience needed.

All very good points.

I would only add that the draft in June is my favorite time to call up a prospect I don't ever intend on optioning. It's a convenient date on the calender that avoids any chance of super 2 status, but gives him a much longer stint on the ML roster for free (essentially) than calling him up in Sept.

[mjj55409]

I will also only call up a prospect whom I project as a starter if I can hive him regular playing time.

[dmarco82]

Originally Posted by neugey

I would be inclined to bring him and let him work as a middle reliever out of the bullpen and get used to the big leagues while refining his control, in hopes that he can be trusted enough to be in the rotation in the following year.

I like this idea. I think I will give this a try and see what happens.

Thanks for all of the input everyone.

[Jagger]

A prospect won't fully develop--control or anything else--in the minor leagues.

So when do you know when he has developed as far as he is going to develop in the minors?

[mjj55409]

Originally Posted by Jagger

So when do you know when he has developed as far as he is going to develop in the minors?

You don't; that's the art (and beauty) of it. And if you play with actual ratings hidden, things get even more interesting.

[tejdog1]

Originally Posted by mjj55409

I will also only call up a prospect whom I project as a starter if I can hive him regular playing time.

This, exactly this.

In my 2027 season, I had my starting 2b and CFer go down within a week of eachother, but neither was going to be out that long, I brought up a marginal OF prospect (45-50 potential), and a backup middle infielder to patch it, but then when my starting SS went down a week later, and was gonna be out for 2 1/2 to 3 months, that's when I bit the bullet and recalled my top middle infield prospect from AA.

If I'm calling up top prospects, they need to get a ton of rope, I won't call them up for a 2-3 week stint of playing everyday, it's gotta be 2-3 months like that.

[steamboat2302]

Biggest thing I've seen, is that if you bring them up and they struggle then you send them back down it stunts them pretty badly. Not sure how reliable that is but has happened each time I've promted too early and then sent them back down.