stealing, squeeze bunts, pick off runners

[Jagger]

When calculating whether to steal a base, what stats do you feel you need in a base runner vs a catchers arm vs a pitchers hold rating? Is 60 or better a good speed to try and steal a base? Maybe 60 or less on a catchers arm or pitchers hold rating? What about when you are thinking of stealing third?

What ratings are you looking at when considering a squeeze bunt? I have tried a number with absolutely no success. I have usually looked for a good bunt rating but I am losing a 3rd base runner every time I try it. I know it works in real life but I can't keep losing valuable runners on third without understanding what are the best circumstances to make the attempt. So what are good conditions/ratings to give a squeeze bunt a shot?

I don't think I have ever had a pitcher pick off a baserunner. However I have lost several runners to AI opponents. I primarily use one pitch to play out my games. Must I use a pick off throw to pick off a baserunner or is there an automatic possibility of it happening if I use hold runner? I do use hold runner often but I don't recall ever picking off a baserunner.

[james17]

I have never had any luck with the squeeze bunt in OOTP either. As for one-pitch mode, if you have a really good hold rating on the pitcher (close to 100) you can sometimes pick off the baserunner at first. You can just keep hitting throw to 1st over and over again. Sometimes it takes me as many as 6 throws to get a baserunner picked off. Sometimes of course it never happens.

As for stealing 2nd, if I have a baserunner with a base stealing rating greater than 74, and if the catcher has an arm under 60, I will try to steal. Third is more difficult but still do-able on occasion.

[Curtis]

Originally Posted by Jagger

What ratings are you looking at when considering a squeeze bunt? I have tried a number with absolutely no success. I have usually looked for a good bunt rating but I am losing a 3rd base runner every time I try it. I know it works in real life but I can't keep losing valuable runners on third without understanding what are the best circumstances to make the attempt.

Originally Posted by james17

I have never had any luck with the squeeze bunt in OOTP either.

And that makes three of us. There may be a small sample size working against us here, but I went 0-22 on squeeze bunts before succeeding at three out of the next five. On the other hand, maybe there's something wrong here that needs looking at.

[Chicagofan76]

As far as stealing goes, For the team I am playing with now most of my guys r 6 (1-10) or better for speed, so i run often. I am on june 10th right now and I have 3 guys over 15 SB, and only my 1B and backup C dont have a sb. I run often but i try to only run on a pi6tcher with a hold rating under 7 and a Catchers arm below 7. I also lead the league is CS.
I do squeeze bunts maybe 5 times a yr. I am successful at it maybe 25% of the time. Fast runner on 3B a good bunter at the plate, a 3B or 1B with a bad arm and I am usually good. In my historical league I bunt a ton since less runs r scored. and I am successful maybe 40% of the time, but I did win Game 7 of the 1899 World Series on a squeeze bunt. John McGraw on 3B Honus Wagner at the plate.
I never try to pick off runners in 1 pitch mode so no comment there.

[robc]

I can't remember for sure if it was when I was playing OOTP or Puresim, but I have had success with the squeeze. I look for someone with a good sac bunt rating and make sure the runner on 3B has good speed.

[neugey]

Originally Posted by robc

I can't remember for sure if it was when I was playing OOTP or Puresim, but I have had success with the squeeze. I look for someone with a good sac bunt rating and make sure the runner on 3B has good speed.

The other week, I was in the 12th inning with one out and a man on 3rd. The pitcher I was facing was really good, my bench was depleted and the hitter at the plate and the guy in my on-deck circle were junk. I could not see them getting the ball out of the infield or getting that runner home. So I brought in an unused starting pitcher (on his day off) for the suicide squeeze bunt with his sac bunt rating of 20(out of 20). Sure enough, it worked. No guts no glory - my pitcher had a pinch-hit walk-off bunt :-)

P.S. - A topic for another thread, but I think the pitcher's bunt ratings are too high (many have the highest rating possible) compared to the position players. I know pitchers are indeed supposed to be the best bunters, but it seems a bit extreme.

[big freddy]

I usually steal with 2 outs. I hit and run with 1 or 0 outs. If I have a catcher with a below average arm and an above average base stealer, I try stealing with 1 or 0 outs.

I steal 3rd with 1 out, and the base runner has to be fast. Rarely will I steal 3rd with 2 outs, and there must be runners on 1st and 2nd.

[Chicagofan76]

Originally Posted by big freddy

I usually steal with 2 outs. I hit and run with 1 or 0 outs. If I have a catcher with a below average arm and an above average base stealer, I try stealing with 1 or 0 outs.

I steal 3rd with 1 out, and the base runner has to be fast. Rarely will I steal 3rd with 2 outs, and there must be runners on 1st and 2nd.

Ohh thanx I forgot i dont ever use the steal button anymore unless its a double steal I only use Run & Hit when I want to steal.

[evanbarth]

I'm trying to see what people do in terms of stealing -- do you use the default mods or do you tweak them. I'm finding in this version, with the default its hard to steal. I have about 60-65% success stealing bases which seems low. I'm halfway through a season and the catcher with a 56 arm (who threw out 2 of my 90+ steal guys) has a 45% success rate throwing runners out. Seems way too high. what are people doing?

[neugey]

Originally Posted by evanbarth

I'm trying to see what people do in terms of stealing -- do you use the default mods or do you tweak them. I'm finding in this version, with the default its hard to steal. I have about 60-65% success stealing bases which seems low. I'm halfway through a season and the catcher with a 56 arm (who threw out 2 of my 90+ steal guys) has a 45% success rate throwing runners out. Seems way too high. what are people doing?

I really like the way that the OOTP stealing model works and think it's pretty true to life.

IMO, stealing bases is like gambling. You might want to detach yourself a bit from the ratings and accept that every steal attempt is a roll of the dice.

Playing on ratings scales of 20, I've seen 16-arm catcher unable to throw out a 4-stealer. I've also seen a 19-stealer get thrown out by a 6-arm catcher.

It seems the more predictable and repetitive you are with steal attempts, the more the computer might tend to catch you. IMO there might be a certain amount of "leveling-out" by the system, to ensure that even the bad pitcher-catcher tandems (with regard to steals) still have some respectable ability to get outs over the course of the game and don't get totally abused by the run. Similarly, I suspect that even very good pitcher-catcher tandems are marginalized somewhat so they're not virtually bulletproof with regard to steals and can be run on a bit given the right situation and a stroke of luck.

I read the runner's steal rating as an indicator of my chances, given ideal conditions (good jump, ideal pitch, no pitchout, etc). That means I won't expect my 19-rated baserunner to steal 19 of 20 bases. He might steal more like 14 of 20 if I run him very frequently, where he's less likely to constantly have ideal steal conditions. Bottom line, the player ratings are an indicator of ability, not an indicator of game conditions.

NOTE: Take this FWIW, this is all just my conjecture on how things may work and I don't have any real proof or research on this.

[evanbarth]

I understand that -- Jose Reyes can get thrown out by a medicore throwing catcher -- that's baseball.

But in the aggregate, a medicore catcher shouldn't throw out 40+% of runners when in reality the best catcher in baseball throws out about 30%