Amateur draft tips

GmOfTheYear · 05-02-2010, 04:45 PM

Since scouting in the amateur draft past the top 5 players or so doesn't differ that much. I was wondering what strategy do you use to draft studs? Is it all about work ethic? Defense?

I look at the players batting stats from college or highschool but i'm not sure if i should go ahead and draft the 18 year old second baseman from highschool who hit 11 homers if my scout shows he isn't going to be any good.

I'm just trying to figure out a way to get those studs and get some healthy talent in my minor leagues.

I have been sorting by batting average and hoping I find someone. Not sure if this is correct.

conception · 05-02-2010, 05:37 PM

There's no surefire way, but the first place I would look are your scouting ratings. However, your scout will have likely have a fair number of guys rated pretty well, so you have to look for other sources that also rate the player well. OSA is less accurate, but if their ratings match yours then there's certainly a fair chance that those ratings are semi-accurate. Also, stats are not the end all, but if there's a guy my scout likes who dominated in a feeder league, I'll usually end up picking that guy up. You'll eventually run out of guys where more than once source can reach a consensus, and is this case I usually give my scout the benefit of the doubt and take a flier on some guys that he has rated high for whatever reason.

Taking this approach to the draft, I don't always or even often find superstars (though I am drafting in the back end of the first round so not surprising) but I will usually hit on enough decent players in the draft to feel good about it.

GmOfTheYear · 05-02-2010, 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by conception

There's no surefire way, but the first place I would look are your scouting ratings. However, your scout will have likely have a fair number of guys rated pretty well, so you have to look for other sources that also rate the player well. OSA is less accurate, but if their ratings match yours then there's certainly a fair chance that those ratings are semi-accurate. Also, stats are not the end all, but if there's a guy my scout likes who dominated in a feeder league, I'll usually end up picking that guy up. You'll eventually run out of guys where more than once source can reach a consensus, and is this case I usually give my scout the benefit of the doubt and take a flier on some guys that he has rated high for whatever reason.

Taking this approach to the draft, I don't always or even often find superstars (though I am drafting in the back end of the first round so not surprising) but I will usually hit on enough decent players in the draft to feel good about it.

Are feeder leagues better than not having one?

I'm not sure the pros and cons of them.

kehowey · 06-13-2010, 09:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GmOfTheYear

Are feeder leagues better than not having one?

I'm not sure the pros and cons of them.

I think feeders produced more talent but too many 2-stud pitchers. I would like to use feeders but don't for those reasons.

KBLover · 06-13-2010, 10:09 PM

I try to find guys who are good in one important area. Like a hitter with 6 (out of 8) contact potential but 3's and 4's in everything else. If he rounds out one of those other abilities over time, he'll be worthwhile at least. If it's in the 3rd/4th round of the default 15 round draft, I'll try for a 6 and a 5 or 6. Say 6 contact and 6 Av. K. Or perhaps someone with good range/arm/error ratings so he could be valuable along the vein of Ozzie Smith - "produce runs" by saving them with his glove - especially at 2B/3B/SS/CF

Later in the draft, I'll look for guys like 5/5/4/4/5 or such - in hopes that either my scout has "undershot" them (and are really a 6 or maybe a 7 in some areas), or that the player can develop into some 6's or 7's as he works in my minors (I always try to keep strong coaches for this purpose). The defensive mindset is true here too.

Also, I'll look for skill groupings like Eye/Av.K/Speed/Steal Instinct - this might be a good hit-and-run type player or a guy who can draw a walk and then run his way into scoring position. Not going to be a world-beater, but could be a valuable contributor or depth option. Another one is Contact/Gap/Av.K - especially if I have a park that's conducive to extra base hits, or seems like a league environment where guys can rack them up.

I do think feeders make it better at least for the earlier rounds, though the 2-pitch pitchers issue is there and can be annoying.

SmoothGentleman · 06-13-2010, 10:22 PM

I love intelligent players that work hard. If it comes down to work ethic or potential (with poor work ethic) I will always take the player with high work ethic. I definitely hold to this theory in the later rounds.

In the early rounds I don't try to mess around, I still look for those with a high work ethic and intelligence, but will buckle if my Scouting Director has high grades on a specific player.

I play without ratings (Besides other), and I am likely to pick good defenders, especially on the infield. I want players that will save runs, that could end up winning you an extra 10-20 games in a season.

Left-handed Badger · 06-13-2010, 11:18 PM

I have one simple rule: NEVER draft a high school pitcher in the 1st round. (and generally I dont pick high schoolers in the first round)

After the first round I dont worry so much. Whatever I need, and mostly what other have already said.

GmOfTheYear · 06-13-2010, 11:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Left-handed Badger

I have one simple rule: NEVER draft a high school pitcher in the 1st round. (and generally I dont pick high schoolers in the first round)

After the first round I dont worry so much. Whatever I need, and mostly what other have already said.

Man I can see the logic here but it just goes against everything i have seen.
I have not had any first round high school pitcher busts in my first 20 years of my current franchise mode.

I have drafted like 5 in the first round.

Why do they not bust?

Because they never get rushed.

My avg sp who made the big leagues from that sample is 24 years old.

I had one guy make the big leagues and dominate at age 21 but that was rare.

So if your first round highschool starting pitcher studs aren't developing. They either weren't that good to begin with or were rushed too early.

Also I think why I am having so much success is because I dont draft based on player ratings. I draft based on stats.

I just sort by era for pitchers then draft the best starting pitcher who meets my criteria. They must have atleast 5 in stamina and a low era under 1.

ton_loc · 04-28-2011, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GmOfTheYear

Man I can see the logic here but it just goes against everything i have seen.
I have not had any first round high school pitcher busts in my first 20 years of my current franchise mode.

I have drafted like 5 in the first round.

Why do they not bust?

Because they never get rushed.

My avg sp who made the big leagues from that sample is 24 years old.

I had one guy make the big leagues and dominate at age 21 but that was rare.

So if your first round highschool starting pitcher studs aren't developing. They either weren't that good to begin with or were rushed too early.

Also I think why I am having so much success is because I dont draft based on player ratings. I draft based on stats.

I just sort by era for pitchers then draft the best starting pitcher who meets my criteria. They must have atleast 5 in stamina and a low era under 1.

Our league has been going for 13 sim years now and I have to agree. We see more college level SPs bust overtime than high school SPs. The one caveat is that a HS pitcher with limited stats (one or two years) is more likely to bust IMO.

Biggio509 · 04-28-2011, 09:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kehowey

I think feeders produced more talent but too many 2-stud pitchers. I would like to use feeders but don't for those reasons.

This really is not the case anymore. I find feeder league drafts and no feeders to be about the same now unless you have way too many feeders. A 30 round draft with just enough feeders gives a similar draft to no feeders. Comparing the two over a short period I only see a couple of differences.
1. There are less AA ready draftees in feeder leagues.
2. SP quality is pretty low.
The other thing is you see a lot of 2 pitch pitchers listed as starters since they did start in the feeders. If you overdo feeders or maybe have a big draft like 50 rounds you probably will get more talent than no feeders. Then again a 50 round draft with no feeders likely gives you more quality players too.

The advantage to feeders is if you set player creation to minimum age for your league you will have 4 years of stats to see how the player's college or HS career went.

Biggio509 · 04-28-2011, 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GmOfTheYear

Because they never get rushed.

...
Also I think why I am having so much success is because I dont draft based on player ratings. I draft based on stats.

2 things first regarding stats, I think this is a better way than your scout's opinion. Unless you have legendary scout and spend max on scouting you scout is usually off on young players. The stats tell you what kind of player the guy is now. Even with the best scout and max expenditure your scout that favors ability (looks for solid players) will have a slightly different opinion than one who favors tools (more boom/bust looks for potential that may not be fulfilled). I use the scout's opinion along with stats but if two players are about equal the scout breaks the tie.

Secondly, not rushing players is good but you also have to be careful about over drafting pitchers. You probably don't want to keep a full 35 man roster in your rookie leagues. Guys just don't get the playing time. HS studs generally are not ready for low A where you have a normal pitching staff SA and rookie can have a lot of guys competing for bullpen time especially. Unfortunately OOTP does not have the rule where only 25 people can be available for 1 rookie or SSA game. So more pithcers than want get used if you have too much pitching at the lower level.

SR000 · 03-14-2015, 06:45 PM

If your minor leagues are already doing well and filled with prospects, go with the high schoolers and develop them. You don't need 21 year olds as backups in the Rookie league because they will be that much older by the time they develop. As for talent, I look for hard workers and team leaders. Most of the draft won't play in the majors so at least you get a positive aspect to the locker rooms - the manual says this does have a slight positive affect on other players. After that, I look for guys who can already field. A guy who is a solid catcher or shortstop can always find a spot on a major league roster as a defensive replacement or even at the bottom of the lineup even if they can't hit. So if they learn to hit or at least get on base, you've hit gold with them. Solid fundamentals (speed, defense) are helpful for a mediocre draft pick to become a usable player.

For pitchers, it's always a bit harder because so many lack good control at that age. Most will be serviceable in the minors so I tend to look for something exceptional in their makeup so that if all else develops they have that something extra needed to play in the majors. In other words, I go more boom or bust with pitchers.

05-02-2010, 04:45 PM	#1
GmOfTheYear Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 402	Amateur draft tips Since scouting in the amateur draft past the top 5 players or so doesn't differ that much. I was wondering what strategy do you use to draft studs? Is it all about work ethic? Defense? I look at the players batting stats from college or highschool but i'm not sure if i should go ahead and draft the 18 year old second baseman from highschool who hit 11 homers if my scout shows he isn't going to be any good. I'm just trying to figure out a way to get those studs and get some healthy talent in my minor leagues. I have been sorting by batting average and hoping I find someone. Not sure if this is correct.

06-13-2010, 10:22 PM	#6
SmoothGentleman Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 429	I love intelligent players that work hard. If it comes down to work ethic or potential (with poor work ethic) I will always take the player with high work ethic. I definitely hold to this theory in the later rounds. In the early rounds I don't try to mess around, I still look for those with a high work ethic and intelligence, but will buckle if my Scouting Director has high grades on a specific player. I play without ratings (Besides other), and I am likely to pick good defenders, especially on the infield. I want players that will save runs, that could end up winning you an extra 10-20 games in a season. Last edited by SmoothGentleman; 06-13-2010 at 10:28 PM.

06-13-2010, 11:18 PM	#7
Left-handed Badger Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: at the altar of the baseball god praying for middle infield that can catch the ball Posts: 2,036	I have one simple rule: NEVER draft a high school pitcher in the 1st round. (and generally I dont pick high schoolers in the first round) After the first round I dont worry so much. Whatever I need, and mostly what other have already said. __________________ -Left-handed groundball specialist -Strikeouts are for wimps

05-02-2010, 05:37 PM	#2
conception All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,150	There's no surefire way, but the first place I would look are your scouting ratings. However, your scout will have likely have a fair number of guys rated pretty well, so you have to look for other sources that also rate the player well. OSA is less accurate, but if their ratings match yours then there's certainly a fair chance that those ratings are semi-accurate. Also, stats are not the end all, but if there's a guy my scout likes who dominated in a feeder league, I'll usually end up picking that guy up. You'll eventually run out of guys where more than once source can reach a consensus, and is this case I usually give my scout the benefit of the doubt and take a flier on some guys that he has rated high for whatever reason. Taking this approach to the draft, I don't always or even often find superstars (though I am drafting in the back end of the first round so not surprising) but I will usually hit on enough decent players in the draft to feel good about it.

06-13-2010, 10:09 PM	#5
KBLover All Star Reserve Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 580	I try to find guys who are good in one important area. Like a hitter with 6 (out of 8) contact potential but 3's and 4's in everything else. If he rounds out one of those other abilities over time, he'll be worthwhile at least. If it's in the 3rd/4th round of the default 15 round draft, I'll try for a 6 and a 5 or 6. Say 6 contact and 6 Av. K. Or perhaps someone with good range/arm/error ratings so he could be valuable along the vein of Ozzie Smith - "produce runs" by saving them with his glove - especially at 2B/3B/SS/CF Later in the draft, I'll look for guys like 5/5/4/4/5 or such - in hopes that either my scout has "undershot" them (and are really a 6 or maybe a 7 in some areas), or that the player can develop into some 6's or 7's as he works in my minors (I always try to keep strong coaches for this purpose). The defensive mindset is true here too. Also, I'll look for skill groupings like Eye/Av.K/Speed/Steal Instinct - this might be a good hit-and-run type player or a guy who can draw a walk and then run his way into scoring position. Not going to be a world-beater, but could be a valuable contributor or depth option. Another one is Contact/Gap/Av.K - especially if I have a park that's conducive to extra base hits, or seems like a league environment where guys can rack them up. I do think feeders make it better at least for the earlier rounds, though the 2-pitch pitchers issue is there and can be annoying.

03-14-2015, 06:45 PM	#12
SR000 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 63	If your minor leagues are already doing well and filled with prospects, go with the high schoolers and develop them. You don't need 21 year olds as backups in the Rookie league because they will be that much older by the time they develop. As for talent, I look for hard workers and team leaders. Most of the draft won't play in the majors so at least you get a positive aspect to the locker rooms - the manual says this does have a slight positive affect on other players. After that, I look for guys who can already field. A guy who is a solid catcher or shortstop can always find a spot on a major league roster as a defensive replacement or even at the bottom of the lineup even if they can't hit. So if they learn to hit or at least get on base, you've hit gold with them. Solid fundamentals (speed, defense) are helpful for a mediocre draft pick to become a usable player. For pitchers, it's always a bit harder because so many lack good control at that age. Most will be serviceable in the minors so I tend to look for something exceptional in their makeup so that if all else develops they have that something extra needed to play in the majors. In other words, I go more boom or bust with pitchers.