War

thulean · 01-26-2011, 06:48 PM

So WAR is in this one. Im wondering what other new stats might be in there. BB% and K% for batters would be nice.

Reikazawa · 01-26-2011, 07:33 PM

Not meaning to take away from the original poster's question, but several questions I have relating to WAR:

1. Will it be calculated retroactively for the past seasons in an existing league?
2. Is it going to be present in the almanac as well -- draft registry and pitchers registry more specifically since those pages lack an overall value stat (batters registry has VORP).

Thanks.

fhomess · 01-26-2011, 07:51 PM

How WAR is calculated is also a pretty big deal. There are multiple versions.

Personally, I'm not sure what it's good for...

thulean · 01-26-2011, 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reikazawa

Not meaning to take away from the original
1. Will it be calculated retroactively for the past seasons in an existing league?
2. Is it going to be present in the almanac as well -- draft registry and pitchers registry more specifically since those pages lack an overall value stat (batters registry has VORP).

Thanks.

1. I dont think it will. When UZR came out for 11 it didnt recalculate. There are probably problems involved adding to the the almanacs in doing that.
2. Im sure it will present in the almanacs.

SMFXR01 · 01-26-2011, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fhomess

Personally, I'm not sure what it's good for...

Reikazawa · 01-26-2011, 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thulean

1. I dont think it will. When UZR came out for 11 it didnt recalculate. There are probably problems involved adding to the the almanacs in doing that.

I would imagine that UZR, just like in real life, is calculated based on "play-by-play" data (coordinates of where the ball landed etc). So, I can understand why OOTP can't retro-calculate past seasons as those data are not kept.

Here's hoping for WAR.

Markus Heinsohn · 01-27-2011, 08:51 AM

Our version of WAR for position players uses the OOTP specific run values for defense plus VORP. WAR for pitchers uses the formula of fangraphs.com ...

So, as long as the defensive metrics are part of the old league (i.e. not an imported OOTP 10 league), WAR will show up well for past seasons.

Reikazawa · 01-27-2011, 09:22 AM

WAR is on!

Thanks, Markus.

Chicagofan76 · 01-27-2011, 09:23 AM

Someone want to tell me the point of WAR, I looked up the WAR leaders by postion on Baseball ref and I still dont get it......PIT as a team was negative 0.4? but mostly cuz their defense sucked. Paul Konerko's WAR was around 4.4 but he had a more then capable backup 1B in shoot forgot teh guys name now......Baseball ref said something to teh effect that the replacement player is = to a AAA or AA player, well if that the case my wAR is 10.0 then minus the 1000 for defense. So if Longoria led the AL at 7.6? what does that mean? that his backup 3B sucked?
I dont get it. It will be a stat like UZR that I see but wont factor in when making trades or HOF selections.

AJ where ya at?

cody8200 · 01-27-2011, 09:49 AM

Chicagofan, I'm not an expert on this but your thinking about the AAA/backup player stuff isn't the way it works. WAR doesn't actually take into account the real life backup on a specific team; it's uses a fictional backup. The backup is usually described as a AAA/AAAA player (AAAA being between a Triple A player and a major league player). The statistic takes into account how many wins a player brings to the table above that replacement player. Again, I'm not an expert or anything but that is my understanding of it.

From what I remember, WAR was created to be a substitute to Win Shares. There are a lot of reasons for this but the main one that comes to mind is that Win Shares (the standard version) didn't have the ability to have negative scores. If you play poor, your WAR can be negative 2 or 3+. That wasn't possible to show using Win Shares.

sansterre · 01-27-2011, 12:00 PM

The point of WAR is to evaluate the value of a player, any player at any position. Basically, WAR = the number of wins the team would lose if the player had not played that season, and instead some random AAA schlub had been brought up to take his place. Or another way of saying it is WAR = player's value - replacement player's value (measured in wins). But the replacement level is an abstract calculation, a ballpark estimate of how good an accessible AAA replacement would be. If you have a shortstop who bats 350/450/600 with an UZR of 10, he may well have a WAR of 8-10+, because sticking in a shortstop who hits 230/300/360 (the theoretical replacement level player) would cost your team about 8-10 runs over a season. But if your backup bats 300/380/500, you'd only really be losing 2-4 wins, because your backup is so good.

The point of replacement level is that somebody at replacement level has just about no value, because you should be able to find someone who plays that well off the AAA street. Accordingly, the stat measures how valuable the player is compared to whoever the team could dig up easily.

sfeldkamp · 01-27-2011, 12:05 PM

Assume you had weighted AI decision making to 100% stats based. How much does WAR and some of the other advanced stats added in last years release factor into AI decision making? Is the AI using these new advanced stats? I hope so, they are far superior to understanding value based off of ERA or OPS.

Reikazawa · 01-27-2011, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sfeldkamp

Assume you had weighted AI decision making to 100% stats based. How much does WAR and some of the other advanced stats added in last years release factor into AI decision making? Is the AI using these new advanced stats? I hope so, they are far superior to understanding value based off of ERA or OPS.

Very good question. I have wondered about this before. Is the UI using the correct stats? Does it use MLE's for minor leaguers?

fhomess · 01-27-2011, 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cody8200

From what I remember, WAR was created to be a substitute to Win Shares. There are a lot of reasons for this but the main one that comes to mind is that Win Shares (the standard version) didn't have the ability to have negative scores. If you play poor, your WAR can be negative 2 or 3+. That wasn't possible to show using Win Shares.

It doesn't take much to adjust Win Shares to include negative Win Shares. The bigger problems are in the calculation of Win Shares itself, which weren't deemed to be as accurate as VORP+defensive metric.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sansterre

The point of WAR is to evaluate the value of a player, any player at any position. Basically, WAR = the number of wins the team would lose if the player had not played that season, and instead some random AAA schlub had been brought up to take his place. Or another way of saying it is WAR = player's value - replacement player's value (measured in wins). But the replacement level is an abstract calculation, a ballpark estimate of how good an accessible AAA replacement would be. If you have a shortstop who bats 350/450/600 with an UZR of 10, he may well have a WAR of 8-10+, because sticking in a shortstop who hits 230/300/360 (the theoretical replacement level player) would cost your team about 8-10 runs over a season. But if your backup bats 300/380/500, you'd only really be losing 2-4 wins, because your backup is so good.

Careful, one run does not equal one win. Several runs equal a win, and WAR attempts to combine the amount of runs added on offense plus the amount of runs saved on defense into a win value. Replacement level is defined as the level of player that can be acquired at no cost - either by picking up a random FA or by acquiring a minor leaguer. Because the nature of that type of player varies with the run scoring environment (replacement level in 1905 was vastly different than in 1998), it's sometimes baselined against the players in the league. Modern MLB usually doesn't change it much, though.

It seems that the sabermetric community isn't all that keen on WAR because of the vagaries of the defensive component. Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference use different methodologies that result in the occasional rather odd discrepancy between the two. In general, though, the best players appear near the top of both lists. I can imagine that the implementation in OOTP will work for some gamers and not for others, but most of us probably will end up looking at it similarly to a lot of the other stats we already have - nice to get a general feel for a player, but not the be-all-end-all.

sansterre · 01-27-2011, 12:47 PM

Sorry, that was a mistype. It's generally 10 runs to the win.

fintach · 01-27-2011, 02:27 PM

I'm so glad to hear this. I have a shortstop I've been on the fence about for a season now. His bat is good -- not Robin Yount good, but good -- but his glove is made of stone. I've been having a hard time deciding if his offense has been outweighing his defense, and a stat like WAR will be a big help.

I finally moved him to second base, but he got hurt an a prospect with a lot of potential has come up and given him a fight for the job. The kid has been a joy to watch develop. I had to cut him to AA from AAA last season because the pitching was too much for him, but he found his stroke toward the end of the season. I let him start this season in AAA, but he hit so well that when the starting 2B went on the DL I had to give him a shot. He's been playing so well I'm having a hard time keeping him on the bench after the starter came back.

Have I mentioned that I love this game?

MizzouRah · 01-27-2011, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fintach

I'm so glad to hear this. I have a shortstop I've been on the fence about for a season now. His bat is good -- not Robin Yount good, but good -- but his glove is made of stone. I've been having a hard time deciding if his offense has been outweighing his defense, and a stat like WAR will be a big help.

I finally moved him to second base, but he got hurt an a prospect with a lot of potential has come up and given him a fight for the job. The kid has been a joy to watch develop. I had to cut him to AA from AAA last season because the pitching was too much for him, but he found his stroke toward the end of the season. I let him start this season in AAA, but he hit so well that when the starting 2B went on the DL I had to give him a shot. He's been playing so well I'm having a hard time keeping him on the bench after the starter came back.

Have I mentioned that I love this game?

That's what makes this game so immersive for me. I signed a FA INF in the offseason to add some depth to my team and ever since my SS got injured, he's been hitting right at 0.300 and has been quite a surprise. I even gave him a two year contract since he told me he was happy playing for us.

JWay · 01-27-2011, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

Our version of WAR for position players uses the OOTP specific run values for defense plus VORP. WAR for pitchers uses the formula of fangraphs.com ...

So, as long as the defensive metrics are part of the old league (i.e. not an imported OOTP 10 league), WAR will show up well for past seasons.

Why is VORP involved?

sansterre · 01-27-2011, 04:04 PM

WAR is wins over replacement level player. WAR for position players = wins above replacement level for batting + wins above replacement level for fielding. Runs can be converted (generally) into wins, and vice versa. Therefor, VORP basically does the same thing as the batting component for WAR would need to do. Since OOTP already calculates VORP, it seems like an easy thing for the game to use VORP for that purpose.

Markus Heinsohn · 01-28-2011, 07:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sansterre

WAR is wins over replacement level player. WAR for position players = wins above replacement level for batting + wins above replacement level for fielding. Runs can be converted (generally) into wins, and vice versa. Therefor, VORP basically does the same thing as the batting component for WAR would need to do. Since OOTP already calculates VORP, it seems like an easy thing for the game to use VORP for that purpose.

Exactly!

01-26-2011, 06:48 PM	#1
thulean Banned Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 72	War So WAR is in this one. Im wondering what other new stats might be in there. BB% and K% for batters would be nice.

01-26-2011, 07:51 PM	#3
fhomess Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 3,651	How WAR is calculated is also a pretty big deal. There are multiple versions. Personally, I'm not sure what it's good for... __________________ StatsLab- PHP/MySQL based utilities for Online Leagues Baseball Cards - Full list of known templates and documentation on card development.

01-27-2011, 08:51 AM	#7
Markus Heinsohn Developer OOTP Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Germany Posts: 24,805	Our version of WAR for position players uses the OOTP specific run values for defense plus VORP. WAR for pitchers uses the formula of fangraphs.com ... So, as long as the defensive metrics are part of the old league (i.e. not an imported OOTP 10 league), WAR will show up well for past seasons. __________________ Buy Out of the Park Baseball 25 now! Download OOTP Go 25 for iOS Download OOTP Go 25 for Android

01-27-2011, 09:49 AM	#10
cody8200 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Indianapolis Posts: 2,436	Chicagofan, I'm not an expert on this but your thinking about the AAA/backup player stuff isn't the way it works. WAR doesn't actually take into account the real life backup on a specific team; it's uses a fictional backup. The backup is usually described as a AAA/AAAA player (AAAA being between a Triple A player and a major league player). The statistic takes into account how many wins a player brings to the table above that replacement player. Again, I'm not an expert or anything but that is my understanding of it. From what I remember, WAR was created to be a substitute to Win Shares. There are a lot of reasons for this but the main one that comes to mind is that Win Shares (the standard version) didn't have the ability to have negative scores. If you play poor, your WAR can be negative 2 or 3+. That wasn't possible to show using Win Shares. __________________ Sharp Guys Web Design - Twitter: @sharpguysweb Last edited by cody8200; 01-27-2011 at 09:52 AM.

01-27-2011, 12:05 PM	#12
sfeldkamp Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 184	decision making Assume you had weighted AI decision making to 100% stats based. How much does WAR and some of the other advanced stats added in last years release factor into AI decision making? Is the AI using these new advanced stats? I hope so, they are far superior to understanding value based off of ERA or OPS.

01-26-2011, 07:33 PM	#2
Reikazawa Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 261	Not meaning to take away from the original poster's question, but several questions I have relating to WAR: 1. Will it be calculated retroactively for the past seasons in an existing league? 2. Is it going to be present in the almanac as well -- draft registry and pitchers registry more specifically since those pages lack an overall value stat (batters registry has VORP). Thanks.

01-27-2011, 09:22 AM	#8
Reikazawa Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 261	WAR is on! Thanks, Markus.

01-27-2011, 09:23 AM	#9
Chicagofan76 Banned Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Diamond, IL Posts: 6,339 Infractions: 2/2 (3)	Someone want to tell me the point of WAR, I looked up the WAR leaders by postion on Baseball ref and I still dont get it......PIT as a team was negative 0.4? but mostly cuz their defense sucked. Paul Konerko's WAR was around 4.4 but he had a more then capable backup 1B in shoot forgot teh guys name now......Baseball ref said something to teh effect that the replacement player is = to a AAA or AA player, well if that the case my wAR is 10.0 then minus the 1000 for defense. So if Longoria led the AL at 7.6? what does that mean? that his backup 3B sucked? I dont get it. It will be a stat like UZR that I see but wont factor in when making trades or HOF selections. AJ where ya at?

01-27-2011, 12:00 PM	#11
sansterre Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 251	The point of WAR is to evaluate the value of a player, any player at any position. Basically, WAR = the number of wins the team would lose if the player had not played that season, and instead some random AAA schlub had been brought up to take his place. Or another way of saying it is WAR = player's value - replacement player's value (measured in wins). But the replacement level is an abstract calculation, a ballpark estimate of how good an accessible AAA replacement would be. If you have a shortstop who bats 350/450/600 with an UZR of 10, he may well have a WAR of 8-10+, because sticking in a shortstop who hits 230/300/360 (the theoretical replacement level player) would cost your team about 8-10 runs over a season. But if your backup bats 300/380/500, you'd only really be losing 2-4 wins, because your backup is so good. The point of replacement level is that somebody at replacement level has just about no value, because you should be able to find someone who plays that well off the AAA street. Accordingly, the stat measures how valuable the player is compared to whoever the team could dig up easily.

01-27-2011, 12:47 PM	#15
sansterre Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 251	Sorry, that was a mistype. It's generally 10 runs to the win.

01-27-2011, 02:27 PM	#16
fintach Major Leagues Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 481	I'm so glad to hear this. I have a shortstop I've been on the fence about for a season now. His bat is good -- not Robin Yount good, but good -- but his glove is made of stone. I've been having a hard time deciding if his offense has been outweighing his defense, and a stat like WAR will be a big help. I finally moved him to second base, but he got hurt an a prospect with a lot of potential has come up and given him a fight for the job. The kid has been a joy to watch develop. I had to cut him to AA from AAA last season because the pitching was too much for him, but he found his stroke toward the end of the season. I let him start this season in AAA, but he hit so well that when the starting 2B went on the DL I had to give him a shot. He's been playing so well I'm having a hard time keeping him on the bench after the starter came back. Have I mentioned that I love this game? __________________ Currently managing: The Bridgetown Gruffs History: Portland Purple Knights of the USBL: 1x NL Champs 1970-74 Berkeley Free Radicals of the BBL: 4x Division Title, 3x LCS, 2x Left Coast Cup Champions 2011 Portland River Dragons of the SPL: 1x Division Title 2011 Las Vegas Coyotes (MLB): half season before DH bored me to death.

01-27-2011, 04:04 PM	#19
sansterre Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 251	WAR is wins over replacement level player. WAR for position players = wins above replacement level for batting + wins above replacement level for fielding. Runs can be converted (generally) into wins, and vice versa. Therefor, VORP basically does the same thing as the batting component for WAR would need to do. Since OOTP already calculates VORP, it seems like an easy thing for the game to use VORP for that purpose.