Station to Station Baserunning

[robc]

Originally Posted by TribeFanInNC

Good link robc. Interesting stuff. Even I didn't realize that the rate should be like 80-90% from 2B to home with 2 outs. Though clearly it makes sense.

But again, we have to remember that OOTP isn't 2005 MLB. It's also 1936 MLB and 1958 AA and a 1903 hobbit league. There is more to consider than just the current status of baserunning.

It was the only reference I could find for this stat. You are right about the different eras of baseball. I have no clue as to what it should be for other eras. I do think OOTP should attempt to get it right for the different eras though (and maybe it does). So, if the rate is off for modern baseball, hopefully it can be corrected.

[TribeFanInNC]

Originally Posted by robc

I have no clue as to what it should be for other eras.

nor do I

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by mtw

...Basically, two things that worked fine previously were broken for OOTP11.

Sadly and frustratingly, there are more than two mtw.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by BusterKing

I've seen them being thrown out at home.

And at 3rd and at second trying to stretch a single.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by mtw

I'm glad to see a thread started on this topic, as I noticed this immediately from my first played games, and became annoyed enough to start keeping data.

Not only is this change very noticeable from prior versions, it is a major change. While I did not keep stats previously, I am very comfortable asserting it was not previously a problem. I strongly suspect the new third base coach "feature" has a lot to do with the problem.

Right now, I'm only tracking the obvious situations where runners should look to advance at least two bases--runners on second with two out on singles hit to the outfield.

I've only tracked 31 games so far, with 82 total opportunities, but right now the breakdown is about 60-20-20, with runners automatically holding at third 63% of the time, having an option to advance about 18% of the time, and automatically scoring about 19%. Of the 20% holding, it's split evenly between getting thrown out and scoring, which I attribute to my league year being 1902 (i.e. more OF assists).

In the OOTP version I've played by far more than any other--OOTP6.5, runners would almost always scored on second with two outs on base hits to the outfield if they had at least average speed, and always if they were fast. I clearly recollect that almost exclusively, only slow runners would be held at third with two outs. (OOTP6.5, IMHO was the pinnacle of OOTP, and all baseball sims I've ever played. If only Catobase could have been incorporated directly into the game and a decent record book added, it would have been the greatest game ever made.)

I've tried to find the actual data online so far without success, but I'd be very surprised if in MLB runners on 2nd don't score better than 50% of the time on base hits to the outfield, and that runners who are anything other than slugs on the basepaths score closer to 75% of the time.

I've not tried to adjust any settings to correct this problem, so I don't know whether there is a viable workaround.

Almost as concerning is that, when the third base coach "feature" kicks in, whether runners hold or are given an option to advance does not appear to be influenced by speed, base running or OF throwing arm ratings. It appears so far to be completely random. One player I've noticed in particular, my 70 speed, 100 baserunning RF, in three opportunities since I've been tracking this, has been automatically held at 3rd all three times on base hits to the outfield with two outs.

Despite reasonably accurate league totals in all other major statistics, run scoring has been down by almost a run per game from actual MLB totals, something that has not been a problem previously for me.

Unfortunately, this is another strike against OOTP11. Barring a patch fixing this and the especially egregious earned run and RBI scoring bug, this version has turning out to be a real dud for me as a deadball era simmer and fictional player, more so than almost any version released since OOTP6.5.

There really isn't any excuse for a game now in its 11th version (12th if you count 6.5) to get these things wrong. Basically, two things that worked fine previously were broken for OOTP11.

I'm confused; do you want scoring success from 2nd base with 2 out in a 1902 league to be the same as current baseball?

I'm not suggesting there isn't an issue but I can't understand how you can make any conclusion based on the data you have so far. What was the scoring success of runners at 2nd base on 2 out hits in 1902?

Correct me if I misunderstood your post.

[DWK]

Originally Posted by robc

I think hardballtimes.com is a reliable site. Here is an article discussing outfielder arms, but it has a chart showing the MLB average for advancing bases both with 2 outs and less than 2 outs. The chart is almost halfway down. Cannons and Popguns — Rating Outfield Arms

Some really good info

[mtw]

Originally Posted by RchW

I'm confused; do you want scoring success from 2nd base with 2 out in a 1902 league to be the same as current baseball?

No, I want baserunners to be much more aggressive in a 1902 league than they are in a 2010 league. I want them to be much more aggressive that they appear so dar to be in 11.2.23. Runners at 2nd base should not be automatically holding at 3rd base with two outs on a single to the outfield 60+% of the time (if that's what it is). I have zero data to back up this suspicion other than what, if anything can be inferred from counting statistics and the simple averages, but because of the nature of baseball then, with runs being at a premium for much of the first two decades of the 20th century, home runs being rare events, outfield assists substantially more frequent, and fielders much more prone to errors, my strong suspicion is that baserunners were far more aggressive then than they are now.

Originally Posted by RchW

I'm not suggesting there isn't an issue but I can't understand how you can make any conclusion based on the data you have so far. What was the scoring success of runners at 2nd base on 2 out hits in 1902?

I tried to clearly state that the data I have is preliminary (see: "I've only tracked 31 games so far, with 82 total opportunities" (actually there was a typo--it was 51 games with 82 opportunities)--in other words I was trying to communicate that I was not drawing conclusions--but rather was stating that something that was such an obvious change from prior OOTP versions caused me enough concern that I felt compelled to track the occurrences. This so that I could report them with the faint hope that OOTP Development would take some action if the data demonstrated something resembling a flaw (and strongly suspecting that no one from OOTP Development would conduct this exercise themselves, else bugs like the most obvious earned run and RBI scoring bugs would have been quashed by the time a "final patch" was released.)

I think it would be great if OOTP could have era-specific baserunning trends--with exceptions of course (like Mike Scoscia today).