Ratings, do they fluctuate?

[Childress]

From game to game? I've never gotten a satisfactory answer to this although the truth could be found somewhere in the massive manual.

For example: it's the early innings and your righteous SP is getting shelled. Is it that he he just doesn't have his stuff today or do you leave him in, given his stellar ratings, because the law of probabilities posits that his performance will revert to the statistical mean over the course of a game? Or, since, the game provides the recurrence of streaks and slumps does one assume that pitchers' ratings will change, sometimes drastically, from Tuesday to Wednesday? I suspect the latter but am not sure.

Also, a manager will sometimes yank a pitcher even if he's not surrendering hits but begins to get hammered with 'hard outs' as the game progresses. Is this reflected in the pbp?

[OldFatGuy]

I don't know the answer to your question, but I do know that if the game reflected reality then yes, ratings would fluctuate. Particularly with starting pitchers who only play once every 5 days, their ability to control and throw each pitch varies greatly from outing to outing.

However, given the wedding by OOTP to DIPS and other saber stuff where humans are nothing other than random number generators, I would guess the answer is no. Ratings may fluctuate from season to season but not from start to start. If I had to bet that's what I'd bet on.

Would be great if I'm wrong. Again.

[Curve Ball Dave]

Don't put all of your faith in ratings. If your pitcher is getting shelled, pull him. It's not his day to pitch. It happens to everyone over the course of a season.

If I only payed attention to ratings, my 37 year old lefty starter would have been released a long time ago. My scout says he's no good anymore, only a half star player. My scout has been saying this for the past 3 seasons. My pitcher's record is 9-3 with a 3.70 or so ERA at the All-Star break. Guess what I pay more attention to

[robc]

I believe it is just random fluxuation. I don't think the game has a 'this pitcher will be poor today' feature. There have been plenty of times I just let my pitcher pitch until tired after getting shelled early and they usually settle down.

I think there have been some studies in real life where they use those cameras that analyze the pitchers movement and such and there usually isn't a big difference between their stuff when having a good day and a bad day. Sometimes the batters just get luckier.

[OldFatGuy]

There ya go.

Didn't take long before the first claim that they're basically the same every time out but random luck is what determines a good day and bad one.

Human baseball players. The only humans in history that are exactly the same day after day, week after week, month after month, like machines.

Random number generating machines.

[funkadillo]

I personally feel confident that there's some kind of hidden confidence meter type thing (or at least it's just chosen randomly prior to a game that a starter will be better or worse today prior to the game).

Playing out a lot of games you can really see the difference. If your starter was dominant through the first 4 innings it's MUCH more likely he'll be good in the 5th and 6th than if the same guy struggled his way through the early innings.

I always seem to regret keeping a struggling pitcher in too long, hoping he'll turn it around. (Then he goes on to give up yet another HR) When a pitcher is dominating I always keep them in until they're tired, and I rarely ever regret that.

The game seems like the real life baseball saying to me: You have to get to the good pitchers early or you're not going to be able to. Once they get going they mow through lineups.

[Fircoal]

Originally Posted by funkadillo

I always seem to regret keeping a struggling pitcher in too long, hoping he'll turn it around. (Then he goes on to give up yet another HR) When a pitcher is dominating I always keep them in until they're tired, and I rarely ever regret that.

The game seems like the real life baseball saying to me: You have to get to the good pitchers early or you're not going to be able to. Once they get going they mow through lineups.

Sounds like me.

Pitcher I like gives up 4 ER in 6 Innings and era rises to 5.01.
Me: Ok Pitcher I like, I know you can last this inning and get your era down.
Pitcher: *walks batter*
Me: That was just one batter. You'll get the next one
Pitcher: *lets batter get a hit*
Me: I believe in you. Get the double play!
Batter: *homers to right field*
Me: @#%#$%^#$%^#$%#$%#$^%#$%^#$%#$%#

[Childress]

Originally Posted by robc

I believe it is just random fluxuation. I don't think the game has a 'this pitcher will be poor today' feature. There have been plenty of times I just let my pitcher pitch until tired after getting shelled early and they usually settle down.

I think there have been some studies in real life where they use those cameras that analyze the pitchers movement and such and there usually isn't a big difference between their stuff when having a good day and a bad day. Sometimes the batters just get luckier.

Maybe it's all a random walk as some analysts characterize the gyrations of the stock market. But real life managers don't share that philosophy. They'll take out the Ace if he's getting hammered early. Superstition?

And if start to start fluctuations are fiction, then there's every incentive to leave the pitcher in until he reaches his customary pitch count meaning that OOTP hurlers will record more innings than their MLB counterparts.

[Ambermonk]

Originally Posted by funkadillo

I personally feel confident that there's some kind of hidden confidence meter type thing (or at least it's just chosen randomly prior to a game that a starter will be better or worse today prior to the game).

I've always suspected this myself. It also works the other way around, sometimes 'average' players have great performances. Just check-out the 'Top Performances' at the end of a game day - especially in the minor leagues. You'll find a pitcher who throws a 1-hitter but has a season 5.67 ERA, or a batter who goes 4 for 4 with a .235 batting average.

I also agree that there are a lot of variables that go into a player's performance. like opposition, ballpark, fatigue, rest, etc. The real question is, not that it happens, but what to do when it does happen. I've often seen the AI manager pull top hitters because they were having a bad day, or pull good relief pitchers after facing just 1 batter.

It would be nice to see some posts about what users have done (or not done) when a player performs 'unexpectedly' (i.e., if you left the player in -what happened? if you put an alternate player in - what happened?).

For example, I have noticed a 'relationship' between starting pitchers and their pitch count. I have found that starting pitchers, who pitch over 115-125 pitches, often don't do very well in their next regular start - even though their fatigue level is at '0.' So now, even when a pitcher is 'mowing 'em down' I might take him out in the hopes that a 'timely' removal will enhance his following start.

[fintach]

I've noticed (in my one season plus) that pitchers seem to have good and bad days, just as hitters do. I've had a solid starter (who finished second in the ML in wins that year) have starts where nothing was working for him and he was lucky if he managed to struggle through five innings. I've had a pitcher who made me grit my teeth every time I had to send him to the mound* throw a 2-hit shutout against a first-place team full of great hitters. To me, that's just baseball.

*He was a good young prospect I'd picked up in a trade who looked ready for The Show -- not ready to be a superstar, but ready to be a solid #4 starter in a rotation that only needed one arm to solidify. His first start he gave up three in the first inning and two in the second. He was walking every other batter and had to come out after four innings. After one more start like that he settled down and threw the two-hitter. He gave me three more good starts, then reverted to what he was first doing.

Meanwhile I kept an eye out for more pitching, and was offered a good, ML-ready starter for a prospect I was ready to give up on. I took the deal and started rotating the new guy with the other number four starter, and the new guy won the job by his third start. The other one finished the year in AAA and I don't know what I'm going to do with him yet (he did not impress me with what he did in AAA). I'm torn between keeping him in the organization for another year to see if he can pull it together and trading him while he's both young enough and promising enough to draw interest.

[Daern]

I've always thought they did, given that from start to start I'll have good pitchers fluctuate from dominant to 1-inning blowout and all stages in between.

ALSO, and more importantly: This title makes me think of "English, do you speak it!?" And that makes me happy.