How unrealistic is this? Opinions...

[Sabermetric Baseball]

Originally Posted by David Watts

Actually he's taking you to the cleaners, but feel free to keep digging......oh let me add

Yeah, taking me to the cleaners with a fan blog post from 18 months ago that starts out with a warning: "MattS with an excellent comment on why most of what I did was wrong".

"Expert assumption" indeed....

[Sabermetric Baseball]

Originally Posted by edm

I think you must be misunderstanding the OP's situation. With 2 outs and the bases loaded, all runners run as soon as the pitcher releases the ball. so while its possible, it is pretty unlikely he would be thrown out.

9 times out of 10 the outfielder wont even make the throw home, because the correct play is to 3rd base. To keep the runners at 1st and 2nd. Unless it's the last inning, in which case he might make a desperation throw to the plate.

with that said, I dont see any issue with him being out in the game, as long as it's not a regular accuracy.

I'm not sure what you mean by "a regular accuracy", but this situation is so rare that it should be among the lowest coding priorities if it was even deemed an "issue" at all.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Sabermetric Baseball

Yeah, taking me to the cleaners with a fan blog post from 18 months ago that starts out with a warning: "MattS with an excellent comment on why most of what I did was wrong".

"Expert assumption" indeed....

Originally Posted by Sabermetric Baseball

Please note this comment....
A single of "average depth" to a CF with a "great arm" is the IDEAL situation for an OF assist at home. A ball hit harder would require a long throw, a ball hit softer would take longer for the CF to field. Left Fielders have the weakest arms in the OFs, a hit to Right Field significantly complicates the tag for the catcher.

I'm not sure what you mean by "a regular accuracy", but based on the OP's situation you'd expect the runner to be thrown out if they even choose to challenge the CF's arm at all.

You just have no clue that is why it would be better if you just let it rest. Point is if you knew anything about baseball you'd know what we are talking about. The article is not important. Apparently I messed up and tried to point out the obvious to you.

You have completely missed the obvious and tried to pin it down on an article. This whole sequence of posts is similiar to me as someone comparing Peyton Manning to Jay Cutler. You just dont know what the hell you are talking about. End of story.

[Sabermetric Baseball]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

You just have no clue that is why it would be better if you just let it rest. Point is if you knew anything about baseball you'd know what we are talking about. The article is not important. Apparently I messed up and tried to point out the obvious to you.

The runner still needs to wait for the pitcher to commit to home, he still needs to make the wide turn around 3rd base, he still needs to run 180 feet - this is an advantage of no more than 2-3 strides, which is still significantly outweighed by the ideal situation for the defense. Sorry, but lessons learned in Community College ball aren't applicable here - the top MLB OF arms will throw runners out at home.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Sabermetric Baseball

The runner still needs to wait for the pitcher to commit to home, he still needs to make the wide turn around 3rd base, he still needs to run 180 feet - this is an advantage of no more than 2-3 strides, which is still significantly outweighed by the ideal situation for the defense. Sorry, but lessons learned in Community College ball aren't applicable here - the top MLB OF arms will throw runners out at home.

Fine! Go watch some baseball over the next month and please post the first time you see a runner get gunned down in this situation. I'll be waiting patiently.

[Sabermetric Baseball]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

The article is not important. Apparently I messed up and tried to point out the obvious to you. You have completely missed the obvious and tried to pin it down on an article.

Sorry, I thought the article was supposed to be evidence that an "expert" opinion agreed with you. I'd consider that very important if the blogger was indeed an expert and his article was accurate. Don't worry though, you've still got "David Watts"!

Regardless of our disagreement regarding the out at home, we've at least shared a complete misinterpretation of the joke by "akw4572". I think you should be able to enjoy some irony in that....

[damientheomen3]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

You just have no clue that is why it would be better if you just let it rest. Point is if you knew anything about baseball you'd know what we are talking about. The article is not important. Apparently I messed up and tried to point out the obvious to you.

You have completely missed the obvious and tried to pin it down on an article. This whole sequence of posts is similiar to me as someone comparing Peyton Manning to Jay Cutler. You just dont know what the hell you are talking about. End of story.

By the series of defenses you've given against sabermetric baseball, it's apparent that you're saying that Figgins would score on every single opportunity. Maybe he didn't get a good lead? Maybe he didn't run his hardest? Maybe he slipped or lost his footing at one point? My point is that you can't make it pretty obvious that you're saying he should score every single time and then say that sabermetrics baseball knows nothing about baseball, because in this case, it's the opposite. Any baseball fan knows that the wild and crazy plays, mishaps and decisions always find their way into games.

[Sabermetric Baseball]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Fine! Go watch some baseball over the next month and please post the first time you see a runner get gunned down in this situation. I'll be waiting patiently.

Ok, you do the same when the opposite happens.

I tried searching the box scores, and surprisingly it appears this exact situation (including the single to CF) hasn't occurred in decades.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Sabermetric Baseball

Sorry, I thought the article was supposed to be evidence that an "expert" opinion agreed with you. I'd consider that very important if the blogger was indeed an expert and his article was accurate. Don't worry though, you've still got "David Watts"!

Regardless of our disagreement regarding the out at home, we've at least shared a complete misinterpretation of the joke by "akw4572". I think you should be able to enjoy some irony in that....

You know you would have done yourself a favor if you wouldnt have said "No, the ball was only average depth and you said Jones has a great arm rating in your league. Figgins would be thrown out almost every time in real life."

This completely screwed any chance you had! My case may not have been strong but by you saying that I could do no wrong.

but seriously I dont want to make enemies. I am sure you are a huge fan as I am. Could we just let this rest?

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by damientheomen3

By the series of defenses you've given against sabermetric baseball, it's apparent that you're saying that Figgins would score on every single opportunity. Maybe he didn't get a good lead? Maybe he didn't run his hardest? Maybe he slipped or lost his footing at one point? My point is that you can't make it pretty obvious that you're saying he should score every single time and then say that sabermetrics baseball knows nothing about baseball, because in this case, it's the opposite. Any baseball fan knows that the wild and crazy plays, mishaps and decisions always find their way into games.

I did try to make that case earlier.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

99.9% Unless he falls down is the only way he wouldnt.

If he runs when the pitch is delivered like he should, he should be rounding 3rd by time the ball hits the ground in the outfield. He should be halfway home by the time the OF gets the ball. An outfielder isnt even going to throw to the plate in most of the time in this situation. I cant believe this is debatable.

About the only situation I think there could be a play at the plate is Bengie Molina running and a line drive to left in Fenway.(outfield can play shallow there because the fence is so shallow) It might end up only being a 150 foot throw instead of the 275 foot throw from centerfield as in the stated example.

This is me trying to say nothing is 100 percent.

[Sabermetric Baseball]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

You know you would have done yourself a favor if you wouldnt have said "No, the ball was only average depth and you said Jones has a great arm rating in your league. Figgins would be thrown out almost every time in real life."

This completely screwed any chance you had! My case may not have been strong but by you saying that I could do no wrong.

but seriously I dont want to make enemies. I am sure you are a huge fan as I am. Could we just let this rest?

You're the one covering your ears and repeating "You don't know what you're talking about" until you're blue in the face. I didn't realize we were on the verge of becoming "enemies". It's possible to banter a disagreement without hating the other person.

I think a few things we can agree on are:
(1) This situation is such a rarity that it doesn't matter whether the game applies the "correct" logic or not.
(2) Baseball is a game of oddities and any single outcome in itself cannot be considered "unrealistic".
(3) No one in this topic has provided any tangible evidence, so going back and forth based on opinion is an exercise in futility

If there's anything new you want to bring to the table, I'd certainly want to continue this discussion - and I hope the same applies to you.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Sabermetric Baseball

You're the one covering your ears and repeating "You don't know what you're talking about" until you're blue in the face. I didn't realize we were on the verge of becoming "enemies". It's possible to banter a disagreement without hating the other person.

I think a few things we can agree on are:
(1) This situation is such a rarity that it doesn't matter whether the game applies the "correct" logic or not.
(2) Baseball is a game of oddities and any single outcome in itself cannot be considered "unrealistic".
(3) No one in this topic has provided any tangible evidence, so going back and forth based on opinion is an exercise in futility

If there's anything new you want to bring to the table, I'd certainly want to continue this discussion - and I hope the same applies to you.

The thing is Im not blue in the face because I KNOW I am right this time and I am sorry for being arrogant but that is how I feel about this discussion. Whether or not it is 99.9 percent of 90 percent I feel 100 percent confident it is higher than quote you have given me which I wont repeat again.

1. Its not a rarity because this situation happens a lot
2. True
3. Also true, however it is hard to have hard evidence on this as its hard to find. I'd love if I could find it so we could move on.

Its not a matter of if I want to continue this discussion or not. Id like to hear on why you think the runner will get thrown out "almost every time in real life" but on the other hand I dont think you will find many that agree with you. In other words its pointless because you wont be able to convince me or others on this.

[edm]

Originally Posted by Sabermetric Baseball

I'm not sure what you mean by "a regular accuracy", but this situation is so rare that it should be among the lowest coding priorities if it was even deemed an "issue" at all.

typo. i meant regular occurrence.

I know its rare. which is why I wouldn't worry about it too much. although, men on 1st and 2nd with two outs is basically the same situation. if it happens once in a while then agree there's no issue. But if it happens 10 times a season, and the runner is thrown out more than half the time, I would say it's not very realistic. Which was the op's main question.

[DCG12]

Something similar happened in the Boston-Seattle game today. Seattle had runners on 1st and 2nd with Figgins being the runner on 2nd. They attempted a double steal (hit and run?) which makes it very much like a 2 out play in that they were moving on the pitchers first move. The hitter hit a line drive base hit to left. Now I know its left and not center but the point is left is a shorter throw and I would disagree with Sabermetric that all leftfielders have the weakest arms as plenty of centerfielders have rag arms as well, but anyway as the ball went over the infield Figgins was in the camera shot and about 20 feet from 3rd where he cut the inside corner (no wide turn) and scored without a throw. I would also expect him to score easily on a shot to centerfield. FYI the runner on 1st went to 3rd, so if he could go to 3rd on a ball to left how can Figgans not score on a ball to any field.

Now with all that said I do believe that OOTP has a problem with station to station baseball and that it is related imho to the game engine balancing hits and runs per game over the course of a season.

I also think that the Pbp could be tightened up a bit as far as being more accurate as to EXACTLY how a play developed. For example in a playoff game last season in my fictional league I had a runner on 3rd with 1 out in the 9th and the batter hit a long fly ball which the Pbp descibed as the fielder going back to the warning track and diving to make the catch and my runner didn't tag and score which cost me tying the game. Now a lot of people will say that I have to imagine that for some unknown reason he took off and had to go back to tag and then couldn't score or some such thing which I suppose is possible because sometimes players do forget how many outs etc. but in this situation it just is hard to fathom.

So I guess I feel the OP pain

[MizzouRah]

Baseball Video Highlights & Clips | STL@CHC: Byrd throws Schumaker out at the plate - Video | MLB.com: Multimedia

The only differences... there was not a full count and Schumaker is not as fast as Figgins, although he was thrown out pretty easily.

[pstrickert]

Originally Posted by DCG12

I also think that the Pbp could be tightened up a bit as far as being more accurate as to EXACTLY how a play developed. For example in a playoff game last season in my fictional league I had a runner on 3rd with 1 out in the 9th and the batter hit a long fly ball which the Pbp descibed as the fielder going back to the warning track and diving to make the catch and my runner didn't tag and score which cost me tying the game. Now a lot of people will say that I have to imagine that for some unknown reason he took off and had to go back to tag and then couldn't score or some such thing which I suppose is possible because sometimes players do forget how many outs etc. but in this situation it just is hard to fathom.

I can tell you that fly balls in OOTP have "distance" attached to them: very short, short, normal, deep, very deep. If the OF caught the ball at the track (whether diving or not), it had to be a deep or (more likely) a very deep fly ball. So, you're right: it doesn't make sense that the runner didn't tag up and score. But the PbP text is probably irrelevant. (Caveat: If the ball was caught on the track in the corner, then maybe the game engine determined that the "distance" on the fly ball was "normal." I doubt it, though.)

[DCG12]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Baseball Video Highlights & Clips | STL@CHC: Byrd throws Schumaker out at the plate - Video | MLB.com: Multimedia

The only differences... there was not a full count and Schumaker is not as fast as Figgins, although he was thrown out pretty easily.

I think the full count makes all the difference here. With the full count the runner would be off at the first move to the plate and the extra couple of steps would make the difference for a guy like Figgins. I would even bet that Schumaker would have been safe with the extra jump.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by DCG12

I think the full count makes all the difference here. With the full count the runner would be off at the first move to the plate and the extra couple of steps would make the difference for a guy like Figgins. I would even bet that Schumaker would have been safe with the extra jump.

I don't disagree with you.. I just think the outcome is definitely possible, albeit a very low percentage.

[__JR__]

I think that maybe a problem here is assuming that the runners are going with the pitch.

Sure, in real life, that happens every time with a full count and two outs for forced runners.

But perhaps the game doesn't take that into account ?? i.e. it's not assumed that the runners are moving with the pitch just because the count is full with two outs, you would have to manually select "run and hit" to make that happen.

In that case, it's hardly unheard of for a runner from second to be thrown out at home.