Clutch ability?

[funkadillo]

Do some players consistently perform better than they usually do in clutch situations and vice versa, either due to a hidden clutch rating or a combination of personality attributes?

Because I have this one guy that I swear always seems to come up huge in clutch situations. He almost never hits solo home runs, but put some guys on base in a close game and he regularly hits 3 run home runs and bases clearing doubles with 2 outs.

I also have had other guys that just never seem to perform up to their talent level, particularly when the game is on the line.

[funkadillo]

This guy is a #7-#9 hitter for me, yet had 10 RBIs in a game for me in his rookie season, with a grand slam and 2 3-run homers, and has continued his clutch play over the years. He also has off the chart intangibles. Very high at every rating but greed.

[battists]

We will never tell!

Seriously, though, there is no hidden clutch rating, it's really all about sample size. Statistically speaking, in any large enough sample, there will be players like this.

[funkadillo]

So personality just affects rating changes and doesn't affect performance at all?

[battists]

Originally Posted by funkadillo

So personality just affects rating changes and doesn't affect performance at all?

I didn't say THAT, just that there's no magic "clutch" rating!

[oman19]

Sounds like kind of a cool idea though.

[Afino]

Originally Posted by oman19

Sounds like kind of a cool idea though.

It doesn't exist in real life. Why put something that doesn't exist in real life players into OOTP?

[Malleus Dei]

"Clutch hitting" is a myth. Hitting is random.

[Daern]

Originally Posted by Malleus Dei

"Clutch hitting" is a myth. Hitting is random.

Well, not random, per se; there are appreciable patterns that exhibit themselves in larger sample sizes. As it pertains to the concept of clutch, however, the numbers produced in any selected situation will fluctuate fairly randomly until one reaches a sample size large enough, in which case they will reflect the overall numbers of the player.

[funkadillo]

I agree that "clutch ability" in sports is vastly overrated, and usually is just a case of looking at a small sample size. However it is also extremely possible for a player to fold under pressure. (ala Greg Norman)

I doubt it's possible for a person to consistently perform better in clutch situations over the long run than they would normally (unless they aren't trying their best in other situations), but it is possible to regularly perform worse.

[jmknpk2]

I tend to believe there are clutch players in real-life. A guy like Honus Wagner, Joe Dimaggio, Stan Musial goes to the plate with complete confidence and a certain internal calm with high concentration, doesn't flinch under pressure, gives it his all every time, especially when the going is rough and it really matters (his determination might even increase then).

Who knows for certain though?

Some guys can steal home plate while most cannot. That takes a certain type of clutch performance. Why would I think that same type of ability wouldn't exist in a hitter?

[olivertheorem]

Of course, those players are all Hall of Fame hitters anyway, so they would be expected to do well in "clutch" situations just like they would in non-clutch situations. What you would have to find is an otherwise lousy player who hit much better in clutch situations in a large sample, or vice versa.

Stealing home isn't so much a function of clutch ability as it is of speed and getting a good jump, just like any other base, just harder since the catcher doesn't have to try to throw the runner out.

[Malleus Dei]

Study after study has shown that "clutch hitting" is a myth. This is another OOTP dead horse.

[toxicavenger74]

I agree with the overall assessment that clutch does not exist statistically or at least not at a point where it can be measured.

I also would throw out that this is also heavily influenced by the observation v. reality dynamic.

A common observer/fan most likely will see more players coming through in the clutch/not coming through in the clutch considering that most likely what they are observing are heightened situations such as the World Series, Playoffs etc. A common fan will catch regular season games less frequently due to life getting in the way, therfore decreasing their chances of seeing a player not come through in the clutch/come through in the clutch and overall raising their perception that a specific player is clutch or chokes and decreasing their awareness that this is simply a few at bats over 500-600 throughout a season and thousands over a career.

Throw in ESPN highlights which cherry pick these situations and you increase the overall perception of the population which believes that clutch exist.

While very different in many way I equate public perception of clutch to fear of flying. The news doesn't highlight the millions upon millions of safe landings, but only the 1 crash, increasing the public perception that flying is un-natural and therefore unsafe. ESPN highlights the clutch performances, even throwing up small sample size stats to back it up, therefore increasing the public perception that clutch/not clutch players exists.

[Malleus Dei]

"All major-league players have a demonstrated ability to perform under pressure. They've proven that by rising to the top of an enormous pyramid of players, tens of thousands of them, all trying to be one of the top 0.1% that gets to call themselves 'major leaguers.' Within this group of elite, who have proven themselves to be the best in the world at their jobs, there is no discernable change in their abilities when runners are on base, or when the game is tied in extra innings, or when candy and costumes and pumpkins decorate the local GigaMart. The guys who are good enough to be in the majors are all capable of succeeding and failing in these situations, and they're as likely to do one or the other in the clutch as they are at any other time. Over the course of a game, a month, a season or a career, there is virtually no evidence that any player or group of players possesses an ability to outperform his established level of ability in clutch situations, however defined." - Joe Sheehan, Baseball Prospectus

[beorn]

Two intelligent sounding contradictory arguments regarding real life baseball:

1) Fans' belief in clutch ability is based on a limited understanding of probabilities. When sample sizes are low -- and playoff stats are generally small samples -- a significant number of players will perform way above or below their long term performance level. This is the way random events play out, and has no predictive value as to what would happen if a new set of playoffs with the same players were conducted... And even at somewhat larger sample sizes, a few players will perform way above or way below their long term performance level, again exactly the way one would expect random events to play out... Thus, belief in clutch ability is silly.

2) Look everywhere in life: some people perform best in a crisis, when a lot is at stake... other people crumble, stumbling over tasks they normally perform perfectly well. Why would baseball be the one exception? Thus, disbelief in clutch ability is silly.

I tend to figure that clutch performance is unmeasurable, both due to sample sizes and due to definition. Two down bottom of the ninth -- clutch situation, right? But if your team is 20 games back in September, is it still clutch? How about 8 games back? How about 4? It's the playoffs and you are batting -- clutch situation? How about if your team leads by 8? how about by 3? Point is, you can't measure something if you can't define it, so it makes any proof or disproof based on measurement impossible.

[GMLoophole]

on the part of the OOTP player. When some 9th batter with a .220 average and ratings like a little leaguer comes up in a key situation, you are thinking "hey, we're going to get out of this". When that guy drills a triple, you are thinking "man, that was a clutch hit". If he comes up at the start of an inning, you think "hey, should be an easy out", and he singles or draws a walk to start a rally that wins the game, same deal.

In other words I agree with the spreadsheeter view so well-expressed here, especially as applied to OOTP. Derek Jeter is a clutch hitter who just happens to hit .300. But I also remember one of my favorite players was Mike Gallego, who didn't ever seem to hit over .250 but seemed to get a hit at just the right time.

[toxicavenger74]

Originally Posted by Malleus Dei

"All major-league players have a demonstrated ability to perform under pressure. They've proven that by rising to the top of an enormous pyramid of players, tens of thousands of them, all trying to be one of the top 0.1% that gets to call themselves 'major leaguers.' Within this group of elite, who have proven themselves to be the best in the world at their jobs, there is no discernable change in their abilities when runners are on base, or when the game is tied in extra innings, or when candy and costumes and pumpkins decorate the local GigaMart. The guys who are good enough to be in the majors are all capable of succeeding and failing in these situations, and they're as likely to do one or the other in the clutch as they are at any other time. Over the course of a game, a month, a season or a career, there is virtually no evidence that any player or group of players possesses an ability to outperform his established level of ability in clutch situations, however defined." - Joe Sheehan, Baseball Prospectus

I think this is very good. It highlights what many people forget or take for granted. This isn't a typical job that these guys applied for. It is a job that only the very best at they do get and then within that group there is still hieharcy of who is the best. Also, the constant pressure to perform is always there regardless of game situation as they are keenly aware that there are about 10 guys or more behind them playing at lower levels silently hoping for their failure so that they could get a shot at their own dream. Every slump has a sense of urgency due to the unknowing of when or if it will end and every hot streak is approached with caution due to being worried about the next slump.

[beorn]

Originally Posted by toxicavenger74

I think this is very good. It highlights what many people forget or take for granted. This isn't a typical job that these guys applied for. It is a job that only the very best at they do get and then within that group there is still hieharcy of who is the best. Also, the constant pressure to perform is always there regardless of game situation as they are keenly aware that there are about 10 guys or more behind them playing at lower levels silently hoping for their failure so that they could get a shot at their own dream. Every slump has a sense of urgency due to the unknowing of when or if it will end and every hot streak is approached with caution due to being worried about the next slump.

One reason I have never totally accepted this argument is that people who ought to know -- pro managers and coaches -- seem to disbelieve it. How many times have I seen the team bring in a player or hype some new player in order to up the competition and create pressure on an established guy.

No, I think this is a case of relativity. WE might all wilt under the baseline pressure faced by players in ordinary situations, but that does not mean that those in the situation do not perceive extremely different levels of pressure, depending on a whole bunch of factors. There are arguments against clutch ability, but I don't think it can be dismissed simply by saying all moments are equally high pressure.

[toxicavenger74]

Originally Posted by beorn

One reason I have never totally accepted this argument is that people who ought to know -- pro managers and coaches -- seem to disbelieve it. How many times have I seen the team bring in a player or hype some new player in order to up the competition and create pressure on an established guy.

No, I think this is a case of relativity. WE might all wilt under the baseline pressure faced by players in ordinary situations, but that does not mean that those in the situation do not perceive extremely different levels of pressure, depending on a whole bunch of factors. There are arguments against clutch ability, but I don't think it can be dismissed simply by saying all moments are equally high pressure.

That is a fair point and I would agree with you that situationally there is increased pressure and that each player might perceive that pressure differently. What impact does that have on performance I am not sure, I believe over time/larger sample size the impact is lessened and it is lessened more with experience. Statistically can it be measured?.... maybe someone else can show a study.