So, OK, an official farewell ...

[mmartin68]

I understand flanjoe. I played OOTP from the beginning and while liking the game immensely I just couldn't get completely into it until I started using fictional players 2 years ago. I have carried over my universe from 9 to 10 to 11.

[Gambo]

Originally Posted by knockahoma

Gambo. Are you saying you actually worked with Strat in determining ratings for their cards? I'd love to hear more about that process if so. I have a lot of respect for STRAT's methods. I once was interviewing a spring training coach for the Brewers named Sam Suplezio. We chatted for about half an hour, as I was tossing out arm strength, range, speed of various players. Finally, he shook his head and said, " You must be a HELLUVA baseball fan!" Never told him my scouting reports came from strat.

Alot of APBA. APBA's community was actually more involved in tweaking the game than the company itself. Back in the day they had monthly magazine "APBA Journal" that broke down all the methods of how they created cards, ratings, etc for all their games. The community developed many of the functions the game eventually had. In fact people from that community are now the people essentially creating the game. During this process there was alot of looking at other games development models.

You'd be surprised to know that the "Card Creators" took a lot of what "should happen" rather than "what this causes" when developing ratings. They often tweak rating and numbers so players to avoid players seeing the issues in the results. If you broke down the numbers you'd see that stars will more often out perform their real stats while above average players would under perform in their best seasons. It evened out in the end so people wouldn't notice with the final team and league numbers but players are not actually evenly balanced against their team stats.

For APBA after 50 years they got real good at it.

[knockahoma]

Alot of APBA. APBA's community was actually more involved in tweaking the game than the company itself. Back in the day they had monthly magazine "APBA Journal" that broke down all the methods of how they created cards, ratings, etc for all their games. The community developed many of the functions the game eventually had. In fact people from that community are now the people essentially creating the game. During this process there was alot of looking at other games development models.

You'd be surprised to know that the "Card Creators" took a lot of what "should happen" rather than "what this causes" when developing ratings. They often tweak rating and numbers so players to avoid players seeing the issues in the results. If you broke down the numbers you'd see that stars will more often out perform their real stats while above average players would under perform in their best seasons. It evened out in the end so people wouldn't notice with the final team and league numbers but players are not actually evenly balanced against their team stats.

For APBA after 50 years they got real good at it.

Fascinating. My very first card set was the 1974 APBA season. Loved it. I can still close my eyes and see some of those cards. A couple of years later, I bought my next set, the 1976 STRAT season and remained with STRAT after that.

Thinking about it, I guess APBAs approach (what SHOULD happen versus What Causes This) is right out there in the open to see, considering how defensive plays are determined, by a "team rating" rather than an individual one. At least, that's how APBA worked when I played it.

[knockahoma]

I understand flanjoe. I played OOTP from the beginning and while liking the game immensely I just couldn't get completely into it until I started using fictional players 2 years ago. I have carried over my universe from 9 to 10 to 11.

I do, too. That's why I bought Action! last year. I believe Action! is a superior replay game. At the same time, having that game has highlighted OOTP's many advantages over STRAT and ACTION. After playing some very strict replay seasons, I now enjoy seeing a star player's career take an unexpected turn for the worse. Since I play in God mode, such fluctuations-- as long as they are a sprinkling, not a dousing-- adds to the fun of trading, re-signs, etc.

On a related note, that very reason is why I wonder if scouts suffer from too much variation. in OOTP? Most scouts can easily see a player's tools. The mental aspect of a player's game usually accounts for over-achieving, or under-achieving. Look at players with year long slumps. Look at pitchers afraid to throw inside. Look at runners who learn to get a great jump and become fine base stealers.

I tend to think that playing without scouts may better mirror the real-life scouting situation versus playing with scouting on. I have a business associate who played in the minors and did some spring training coaching with the Brewers. I asked him once, what percentage of guys in A had the physical talent to play in the majors. I think he said somewhere between 10-20%. AA? Maybe 50% (the jump from single A to double A is the biggest in organized baseball, he claimed). AAA? Probably 80% had the physical tools.

[rwd59]

Originally Posted by dcpcarmona

So long, farewell, auf weiderseshen good-bye
[Flan.Joe]
I hate [for you] to go and leave this pretty site...

The sun...has gone...to bed and so must [you]

So long...farewell...auf weiderseshen good-bye...
Good-bye...
Good-bye...
Good-bye...
[OOTP members]
Good-bye...

And a inka,dinka, do....Ha cha cha. Good night Miss Calafras(or whoever) wherever you are.

[snepp]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

As a corollary to the above post, we post about the longest hitting streaks from time to time. Has *anybody* here seen a 56-game hitting streak? OOTP does some things to prolong these more than in other games that treat this as a more or less random occurrence and yet I for one have never seen one longer than just past 30 games, let alone 40, 50, or 56. And yet in baseball not only did this happen but the *same guy* had a 61 game hitting streak in the high minors (the PCL, which at the time was somewhere around the talent level relative to the majors that the Japanese League is now). And if it wasn't for a couple of masterful plays by Ken Keltner, that 61 game streak might have been 80.

Like I said, I've also played a bit of the 19th century game, with its higher averages and greater number of at-bats per game, and I haven't seen anyone reach Wee Willie Keeler's 45 game streak either (or Bill Dahlen's 42). I also haven't seen an OOTP equivalent of Pete Rose's 44 gamer. There is an argument that OOTP artificially ends hitting streaks by resting players in the middle of them and bringing them in as pinch hitters but I have to say that I don't see regulars pinch-hit on their day off terribly often.

There was a 52 gamer in my current league, from the career BA leader (.365), the next closest is 35.

A draftee of mine had a 47 game streak in A-ball right after getting drafted.

[knockahoma]

Here it is: I had posted this interview with a former minor leaguer/infield coach for the Brewers about a year ago. His name is Jamie Hamilton and you can look him up.

" Jamie, I've been fascinated with the mental in both sports and life. How many guys in single A had the physical ability to play in the majors?"

" That's a good question." He took some time to mentally rifle through his past. Absolutely, Jamie had seen guys with the physical tools wash out, lacking the discipline needed, too much into partying, or girls. " Maybe 3 out of 10" he said, finally.

"In AA?"
" Say 8 out of 10 had the physical tools. That's the biggest jump. From single A ball to AA."

" And in AAA?"

"10 out of 10." he said. Ten out of Ten had the physical tools to play in the Show at that level. By AAA, the physical imposters had been weeded out.

[ashantewarrier]

Originally Posted by dcpcarmona

So long, farewell, auf weiderseshen good-bye
[Flan.Joe]
I hate [for you] to go and leave this pretty site...

The sun...has gone...to bed and so must [you]

So long...farewell...auf weiderseshen good-bye...
Good-bye...
Good-bye...
Good-bye...
[OOTP members]
Good-bye...

Ode to joe?

[StyxNCa]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

Which gets back to my point about the way humans perceive things. We see these outliers first because we are wired to do so. To compound the fact, if we've already sort of come to the conclusion that the game "isn't accurate" in this case, confirmation bias is extremely powerful: it's human nature to see the big misses but not the big hits. Even thinking about reading a post in which you comment that in your 1993 replay Ken Griffey Jr. hit .315 with 44 homeruns sounds kind of silly, doesn't it? It's not newsworthy when a player performs the way you'd expect him to and thus you ignore the 2/3rds of the league that does that.

This is probably true but my issue isn't as much how many players are out of whack as much as it is which players are. I expect serious deviations of little used players but not so much from starters who played most of the season.

I've mentioned a number, though not all, of the major players who ended off with fictional results. 1969 Camilo Pascual should not be among the best pitchers in the league while Seaver, Stottlemyre, Phil Niekro, Killebrew, and Gaylord Perry, to name a few, are among the worst. Montreal should not be winning the World Series. As I also said in the past, it isn't necessarily the stats that bother me as much as where players and teams are ranked at the end. I had no problem with Mike Epstein hitting 42 HR's. I looked at where he ranked in the league compared to where he ranked in real life and that was acceptable.

Simply put, I expect the best players to be among the best and the worst to be among the worst regardless of the stats they put up.

I do have to admit I haven't tested 11. I blame/credit Action for that. I really have no desire to go to any other game for historical play. Action is pretty much what I have always wanted in a PC replay game.

I have two fictional leagues in OOTP, one I created with OOTP 5 which is 100% fictional and one I created in OOTP 10 which is historical teams with fictional players and I enjoy playing these leagues greatly. The overall league stats each season mirror real life stats for those seasons but since real players aren't involved there are no expectations on where a player should rank in the grand scheme.

[robc]

Originally Posted by StyxNCa

This is probably true but my issue isn't as much how many players are out of whack as much as it is which players are. I expect serious deviations of little used players but not so much from starters who played most of the season.

I've mentioned a number, though not all, of the major players who ended off with fictional results. 1969 Camilo Pascual should not be among the best pitchers in the league while Seaver, Stottlemyre, Phil Niekro, Killebrew, and Gaylord Perry, to name a few, are among the worst. Montreal should not be winning the World Series. As I also said in the past, it isn't necessarily the stats that bother me as much as where players and teams are ranked at the end. I had no problem with Mike Epstein hitting 42 HR's. I looked at where he ranked in the league compared to where he ranked in real life and that was acceptable.

Simply put, I expect the best players to be among the best and the worst to be among the worst regardless of the stats they put up.

I definitely understand your frustration because the same thing annoys me sometimes. Unfortunately a star or regular player is just as likely to have stats out of wack as an unknown. In OOTP, a player with all 10 out of 10 ratings is just as subject to statistical variance as a player with all 1 out of 10 ratings. If about 68% of players are within 1 standard deviation from their real life perfomance (95% within 2, 98% within 3), then the OOTP engine is doing a pretty good job. In my brief examination of this in OOTP 10 (batters only), OOTP did a pretty good job in most catagories, but some (like triples) were farther from reality.

[StyxNCa]

Originally Posted by robc

I definitely understand your frustration because the same thing annoys me sometimes. Unfortunately a star or regular player is just as likely to have stats out of wack as an unknown. In OOTP, a player with all 10 out of 10 ratings is just as subject to statistical variance as a player with all 1 out of 10 ratings. If about 68% of players are within 1 standard deviation from their real life perfomance (95% within 2, 98% within 3), then the OOTP engine is doing a pretty good job. In my brief examination of this in OOTP 10 (batters only), OOTP did a pretty good job in most catagories, but some (like triples) were farther from reality.

Ever since they did away with the triple rating in OOTP 6 triples have been pretty inaccurate for most players. I never saw Billy Williams hit anywhere near as many as he had in 1969 since OOTP 6. I believe the speed rating combined with the gap rating determines triple ability and Williams was no speed demon.

I only play individual season replays, not "career" replays so how their game "career stats" accuracy looks is irrelevant to me. I am only playing one season and the argument that in that one season such and such could be possible is also irrelevant since IRL it didn't really happen.

I look at a game like Action and see how much better it reproduces a single season so rationalizing the OOTP system with me when I have something better to compare it to is pointless.

I play two separate games and those two are very good for what they do best. For the way I replay seasons, OOTP has not been good for me but that is not a slight against OOTP because obviously, for the majority of replayers on here, it works fine for them. Everyone has their own expectations. I'm certainly not saying that those people are wrong in what they think because I don't believe they are. They just play different than I do.

So what if they way I play is the bestest way.

[bk2bkjks]

OOTP is a simulation of a baseball world. Even with real player names I do not expect a player to do exactly what he did/does in real life....if you play before 2010 as soon as you play a game your changing history and the way a player performs unless you can exacxtly reproduce what the manager and GM did that year for all teams. As for going past 2010....who knows Pujols can suddenly not hit fastball, or Lincecum not find the strike zone.
OOTP simulates not emulates a baseball world we create. I love this game and any results that come from it.

[StyxNCa]

Originally Posted by bk2bkjks

OOTP is a simulation of a baseball world. Even with real player names I do not expect a player to do exactly what he did/does in real life....if you play before 2010 as soon as you play a game your changing history and the way a player performs unless you can exacxtly reproduce what the manager and GM did that year for all teams. As for going past 2010....who knows Pujols can suddenly not hit fastball, or Lincecum not find the strike zone.
OOTP simulates not emulates a baseball world we create. I love this game and any results that come from it.

That's why I say it's an ideal game for fictional play.

[Cooleyvol]

Originally Posted by Malleus Dei

This is like a funeral. The reason you all gathered here is gone, so you're standing around making conversation. Go home!

^^gets it^^

[StyxNCa]

Originally Posted by Malleus Dei

This is like a funeral. The reason you all gathered here is gone, so you're standing around making conversation. Go home!

I'm homeless.

[CD1083]

Originally Posted by StyxNCa

I'm homeless.

Home is where the heart is....that and where you play OOTP.

[bk2bkjks]

I like starting from whatever year OOTP has as far as MLB startup as it is with players I know. In about 10-15 seasons it turns into a fictional league anyway....players of today are mostly gone, players in the low minors are veterans and the players from your feeder leagues, if you have them are filtering in and turning it into a fictional league.
I started my simulation hobby way back with Microleague Baseball and kept what stats I could on paper. I had only dreamed of the things that are in this game then...Minors, salary, contract negotiations.
My guess there would be someone that would say the game is broken if Jason Bay performed in OOTP like he is doing now....only 4 hr's this year and this time last year he had like 14.....once you throw that first pitch in OOTP, ya just never know what will happen....I LOVE IT!

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by bk2bkjks

I like starting from whatever year OOTP has as far as MLB startup as it is with players I know. In about 10-15 seasons it turns into a fictional league anyway....players of today are mostly gone, players in the low minors are veterans and the players from your feeder leagues, if you have them are filtering in and turning it into a fictional league.
I started my simulation hobby way back with Microleague Baseball and kept what stats I could on paper. I had only dreamed of the things that are in this game then...Minors, salary, contract negotiations.
My guess there would be someone that would say the game is broken if Jason Bay performed in OOTP like he is doing now....only 4 hr's this year and this time last year he had like 14.....once you throw that first pitch in OOTP, ya just never know what will happen....I LOVE IT!

My story is very similar to yours, only difference is I started with Strat O Matic back in the late '60's.

I love the game for the same reason you do, the "ya never know" factor. Even playing with real players I have no real preconceived idea of what a player will do. Like real life, I know what they have done and so have hopes and expectations of what they will do but ,as you said, once the first pitch is thrown "ya just never know what will happen". This also goes for fictional players. They too develop a history and in doing so create expectations that they either live up to or fall short of.

OOTP is not a perfect game, no game is, but it is the best bang for the buck game on the market IMHO.

[StyxNCa]

Originally Posted by Sweed

My story is very similar to yours, only difference is I started with Strat O Matic back in the late '60's.

I love the game for the same reason you do, the "h" factor. Even playing with real players I have no real preconceived idea of what a player will do. Like real life, I know what they have done and so have hopes and expectations of what they will do but ,as you said, once the first pitch is thrown "ya just never know what will happen". This also goes for fictional players. They too develop a history and in doing so create expectations that they either live up to or fall short of.

OOTP is not a perfect game, no game is, but it is the best bang for the buck game on the market IMHO.

And this is the fictional part of the game. When you get extreme "you never know" results in a historical "replay" it becomes fantasy and the names of the players don't matter so why bother using the historical names?

You said yourself, we know what really happened and for a lot of replayers it's that knowledge that is used to base how good a game is at a replay. I know it's how I have always tested a game. I use the same season for every game I try to see just how accurate it is or how the game engine works.

The "you never know" mindset is not a mindset that is actually attempting a replay at all.

The only way to see what I'm talking about is for people to check on Action BB. I didn't say they have to buy it and play it, though it would certainly clarify what my idea of a replay is, but just to read up on it.

I do believe that what some people are calling "historical replay" compared to what others such as me are calling "historical replay" is where the confusion in this entire replay discussion is coming from.

It's just the definition of "historical replay" which seems to be the crux of the issue here.

Saying OOTP is a "what if" or an "anything can happen" type of game is not my definition of a "replay" type of game. To me those are the definitions of a "fantasy" game.

[bk2bkjks]

I get what your saying, but isn't a replay of a season somewhat of a fantasy....also I don't think OOTP calls itself a replay game. It's a simulation game which simulates what happens in a baseball world.
But to each his own...we may all have differant opinion's on this game on what it should but we can all agree it is a great game and the best out there.