How much do players have to do with it?

Bluejayz · 06-08-2010, 05:56 AM

My question is essentially is it easier to have a successful season in this game with the Yankees who have great players like Jeter, Arod, Texiera, than it would be the Royals.

Do the high profile, star players make a difference or is it all luck in this game.

fintach · 06-08-2010, 12:40 PM

Players make a huge difference, but there is also a certain amount of randomness.

Let me explain it this way -- there is a customizable setup that organizes the random factors. For example, every player's general performance in each opportunity (at bat, batter faced, fielding chance, etc.) weights different attributes of a player based on a customizable formula in the setup:

(I'm going off of what I remember here, but you can find the details in the online manual, on this site)
Ratings A%
Current Year Statistics: B%
Previous Year's Statistics: C%
Last Two Years' Statistics: D%

Chance of Success = A%+B%+C%+D%

That's shorthand, though, because the pitcher, batter and relevant fielder will all factor into it (at the least).

This is a fairly long and definitely incomplete explanation, but the point is there -- luck is a factor, but having high-quality players will be more likely to bring success. That said, anyone can have a good year or a bad year. For example, in my 1977 league, Duane Kuiper (who "should" be hitting around .280 or .290) is leading the league in hitting at over .350. On the other hand, Bill Madlock (who should be hitting .320 or so) is mired at around .245.

Seviien · 06-08-2010, 01:36 PM

pretty sure that formula only applies to the AI teams' evaluation of the player's worth, not the actual outcome.

fintach · 06-08-2010, 02:26 PM

Huh. So how does it resolve at bats/fielding chances/etc. then?

SteveP · 06-08-2010, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seviien

pretty sure that formula only applies to the AI teams' evaluation of the player's worth, not the actual outcome.

That is correct. Those settings are just there for people who think the AI ought to be looking only at ratings, or mostly at ratings, or whatever, when the AI does trades, makes roster adjustments, etc. They have no influence on how players perform. If you want to do anything about that, you have to change the player ratings, player by player, in the player Editor (or by exporting the roster to something like Excel).

fintach · 06-08-2010, 04:44 PM

Wow, so a 1977 Duane Kuiper leading the National League in batting average from April through June (so far) comes down to a random chance aberration based on how the ratings have lined up in each at bat and has not been influenced by the success he has had at the plate this season? I would never have guessed that.

SteveP · 06-08-2010, 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fintach

Wow, so a 1977 Duane Kuiper leading the National League in batting average from April through June (so far) comes down to a random chance aberration based on how the ratings have lined up in each at bat and has not been influenced by the success he has had at the plate this season? I would never have guessed that.

Well, there is some valid debate over the impact that getting designated as "hot" or "cold" might have. It could be that there is no impact: what a player does in the next game is not influenced by whether he is "hot" or "cold". Or there is some influence. I lean toward the latter, but it's pretty uncertain.

Other than that, it's just Dame Fortune at work. The range of statistically likely and possible outcomes, given any set of ratings, is pretty large.

fintach · 06-09-2010, 11:27 AM

Interesting. I thought about digging around or asking about the hot/cold thing, but that probably gives me a good summary of what would be said over the course of a thread.

The other thing I have to keep in mind is that the ratings I see are the scouted ratings, not the true ratings. If some rookie for another team has a listed power of 20/100 but is among the league leaders in HRs, maybe he's lucky (and has played mostly in small parks), or maybe I need to scout him again.

06-08-2010, 05:56 AM	#1
Bluejayz Bat Boy Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 8	How much do players have to do with it? My question is essentially is it easier to have a successful season in this game with the Yankees who have great players like Jeter, Arod, Texiera, than it would be the Royals. Do the high profile, star players make a difference or is it all luck in this game.

06-08-2010, 12:40 PM	#2
fintach Major Leagues Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 484	Players make a huge difference, but there is also a certain amount of randomness. Let me explain it this way -- there is a customizable setup that organizes the random factors. For example, every player's general performance in each opportunity (at bat, batter faced, fielding chance, etc.) weights different attributes of a player based on a customizable formula in the setup: (I'm going off of what I remember here, but you can find the details in the online manual, on this site) Ratings A% Current Year Statistics: B% Previous Year's Statistics: C% Last Two Years' Statistics: D% Chance of Success = A%+B%+C%+D% That's shorthand, though, because the pitcher, batter and relevant fielder will all factor into it (at the least). This is a fairly long and definitely incomplete explanation, but the point is there -- luck is a factor, but having high-quality players will be more likely to bring success. That said, anyone can have a good year or a bad year. For example, in my 1977 league, Duane Kuiper (who "should" be hitting around .280 or .290) is leading the league in hitting at over .350. On the other hand, Bill Madlock (who should be hitting .320 or so) is mired at around .245.

06-08-2010, 01:36 PM	#3
Seviien All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 925	pretty sure that formula only applies to the AI teams' evaluation of the player's worth, not the actual outcome.

06-08-2010, 02:26 PM	#4
fintach Major Leagues Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 484	Huh. So how does it resolve at bats/fielding chances/etc. then?

06-08-2010, 04:44 PM	#6
fintach Major Leagues Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 484	Wow, so a 1977 Duane Kuiper leading the National League in batting average from April through June (so far) comes down to a random chance aberration based on how the ratings have lined up in each at bat and has not been influenced by the success he has had at the plate this season? I would never have guessed that.

06-09-2010, 11:27 AM	#8
fintach Major Leagues Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 484	Interesting. I thought about digging around or asking about the hot/cold thing, but that probably gives me a good summary of what would be said over the course of a thread. The other thing I have to keep in mind is that the ratings I see are the scouted ratings, not the true ratings. If some rookie for another team has a listed power of 20/100 but is among the league leaders in HRs, maybe he's lucky (and has played mostly in small parks), or maybe I need to scout him again.