A Complete Crap Shoot - Page 2

Dactyl · 05-31-2010, 06:04 PM

Okay, some seem to think that I want first-rounders guaranteed to make the majors and such as that. I don't, as I've made clear, that isn't the issue. Given that the draft is a crap shoot, is there anything to be gained by choosing draft picks yourself? Why not just let the AI auto-draft for you? Aren't you going to end up with just as many draftees rising to the majors? That's the main question.

I started this thread because of a larger issue. In building an organization, where does the skill come in? I play with trading set to hard. On the normal setting, it's too easy to get good young talent from other clubs. At hard, it's rare that you can get good young talent without giving up some of your own. So, if you can only marginally improve your club through trades, and the draft is a crap shoot, where is the skill involved? In signing free agents? Not hardly. That's just a matter of money.

The fact of the matter is that there are organizations in MLB that build their organizations in the draft, and that some are better than others at doing that. I've tried to build an organization that does that, but it hasn't worked, and I don't believe that it's the way I've approached it. I've got excellent or better coaches all through my system, a legendary scouting director, and I spend about ten million on scouting a year, but I don't seem to generate more than the occasional major leaguer, certainly not enough of them even to give me a winning record.

Dactyl · 05-31-2010, 06:05 PM

Okay, some seem to think that I want first-rounders guaranteed to make the majors and such as that. I don't, as I've made clear, that isn't the issue. Given that the draft is a crap shoot, is there anything to be gained by choosing draft picks yourself? Why not just let the AI auto-draft for you? Aren't you going to end up with just as many draftees rising to the majors?

I started this thread because of a larger issue. In building an organization, where does the skill come in? I play with trading set to hard. On the normal setting, it's too easy to get good young talent from other clubs. At hard, it's rare that you can get good young talent without giving up some of your own. So, if you can only marginally improve your club through trades, and the draft is a crap shoot, where is the skill involved? In signing free agents? Not hardly. That's just a matter of money.

The fact of the matter is that there are organizations in MLB that build their organizations in the draft, and that some are better than others at doing that. I've tried to build an organization that does that, but it hasn't worked, and I don't believe that it's the way I've approached it. I've got excellent or better coaches all through my system, a legendary scouting director, and I spend about ten million on scouting a year, but I don't seem to generate more than the occasional major leaguer, certainly not enough of them even to give me a winning record.

RchW · 05-31-2010, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dactyl

Okay, some seem to think that I want first-rounders guaranteed to make the majors and such as that. I don't, as I've made clear, that isn't the issue. Given that the draft is a crap shoot, is there anything to be gained by choosing draft picks yourself? Why not just let the AI auto-draft for you? Aren't you going to end up with just as many draftees rising to the majors?

I started this thread because of a larger issue. In building an organization, where does the skill come in? I play with trading set to hard. On the normal setting, it's too easy to get good young talent from other clubs. At hard, it's rare that you can get good young talent without giving up some of your own. So, if you can only marginally improve your club through trades, and the draft is a crap shoot, where is the skill involved? In signing free agents? Not hardly. That's just a matter of money.

The fact of the matter is that there are organizations in MLB that build their organizations in the draft, and that some are better than others at doing that. I've tried to build an organization that does that, but it hasn't worked, and I don't believe that it's the way I've approached it. I've got excellent or better coaches all through my system, a legendary scouting director, and I spend about ten million on scouting a year, but I don't seem to generate more than the occasional major leaguer, certainly not enough of them even to give me a winning record.

There is no doubt IMO that you should be able to draft better than the AI. As a personal choice I don't use coaches or scouting so it's difficult for me to compare. My thought is that the "fog" generated by three layers (coaching, scouting, and AI drafting) may be helping this "crap shoot". Sorry I can't offer much else.

snepp · 05-31-2010, 06:22 PM

I would never let the AI auto-draft the early rounds for me, they're bound to draft a guy that your scout says is good, but the stats say is awful.

You ask the scout for a recommendation in the 1st round and he suggests a guy that sucks. You pick someone else, then inevitably that same guy gets recommended in the 2nd round, then the 3rd, then the 4th, and so on. The madness finally ends when the AI drafts him in the 7th or so, long after the auto-draft would have had you selecting him.

damientheomen3 · 05-31-2010, 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dactyl

Okay, some seem to think that I want first-rounders guaranteed to make the majors and such as that. I don't, as I've made clear, that isn't the issue. Given that the draft is a crap shoot, is there anything to be gained by choosing draft picks yourself? Why not just let the AI auto-draft for you? Aren't you going to end up with just as many draftees rising to the majors?

I started this thread because of a larger issue. In building an organization, where does the skill come in? I play with trading set to hard. On the normal setting, it's too easy to get good young talent from other clubs. At hard, it's rare that you can get good young talent without giving up some of your own. So, if you can only marginally improve your club through trades, and the draft is a crap shoot, where is the skill involved? In signing free agents? Not hardly. That's just a matter of money.

The fact of the matter is that there are organizations in MLB that build their organizations in the draft, and that some are better than others at doing that. I've tried to build an organization that does that, but it hasn't worked, and I don't believe that it's the way I've approached it. I've got excellent or better coaches all through my system, a legendary scouting director, and I spend about ten million on scouting a year, but I don't seem to generate more than the occasional major leaguer, certainly not enough of them even to give me a winning record.

If you want the draft to be easier, turn off scouting. Guys' talents to change sometimes so draft picks aren't ensured to pan out, but you can actually get a gauge on how good they are.

knockahoma · 06-01-2010, 10:13 AM

I've read that expanding the draft to something like 30 rounds is likely to give you too many good prospects. Is that true? And why so? I kind of like the idea of a sea-full of fish, mostly minnows, some catfish and a few whales.

StyxNCa · 06-05-2010, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knockahoma

I've read that expanding the draft to something like 30 rounds is likely to give you too many good prospects. Is that true? And why so? I kind of like the idea of a sea-full of fish, mostly minnows, some catfish and a few whales.

I have a 15 round draft with it set to create players for 25 rounds. It seems to work out pretty well.

I set it that way because I read somewhere in a past version that setting it for 10 rounds more than you actually have would be best. Right now there are quality players for the first 4 or 5 rounds which is acceptable to me. After that it starts to fall off. The key term is "quality players". I don't mean they are all looking like future superstars but it does make the rounds 1-5 picks valuable for trade purposes as well.

I am probably going to drop it back to 10 rounds of actual draft and players for 20. 15 rounds is a bit much. 10 may be also but I'll find out.

Curtis · 06-05-2010, 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StyxNCa

I am probably going to drop it back to 10 rounds of actual draft and players for 20. 15 rounds is a bit much. 10 may be also but I'll find out.

It may not make a difference. Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't undrafted players become available as free agents? If so, you'd be adding the same number of players to the available player pool whether you set the draft for 10, 15 or 20 rounds.

StyxNCa · 06-06-2010, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Curtis

It may not make a difference. Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't undrafted players become available as free agents? If so, you'd be adding the same number of players to the available player pool whether you set the draft for 10, 15 or 20 rounds.

I have it set to create players for 25 rounds (10 rounds over the actual 15 rounds). If I decide to go with 10 rounds instead of 15 I will drop it to create enough players for 20 rounds instead of 25.

Yeah, the undrafted players become free agents. When I said 15 rounds is a bit much I meant it's too long. I end off auto-drafting after the 8th round or so since by then you're getting to players who will most likely never see the big leagues.

Curtis · 06-06-2010, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StyxNCa

I have a 15 round draft with it set to create players for 25 rounds.

I am probably going to drop it back to 10 rounds of actual draft and players for 20.

Duh. Read post, learn stuff. Thanks for pointing that out, Styx.

StyxNCa · 06-06-2010, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Curtis

Duh. Read post, learn stuff. Thanks for pointing that out, Styx.

Well sometimes I say things in a confusing way.

Killing Time · 06-06-2010, 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Curtis

Duh. Read post, learn stuff.

That should be the forum motto.

Killing Time · 06-06-2010, 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StyxNCa

Well sometimes I say things in a confusing way.

Aww it's part of your charm.

dmarco82 · 06-07-2010, 12:21 AM

When a a prospect fails is it because of bad scouting or bad coaching. Maybe your scout sees guys that has the potential to become quality Major Leaguers, but your minor league coaching staff is not successful in guiding them to reach that potential. This is something that I have wondered about in real life sports as well.

Just a thought. Maybe you are selecting the right players, but your coached are just not able to teach them.

06-07-2010, 12:21 AM	#34
dmarco82 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: St. Louis, MO Posts: 46	I've always wondered When a a prospect fails is it because of bad scouting or bad coaching. Maybe your scout sees guys that has the potential to become quality Major Leaguers, but your minor league coaching staff is not successful in guiding them to reach that potential. This is something that I have wondered about in real life sports as well. Just a thought. Maybe you are selecting the right players, but your coached are just not able to teach them.

05-31-2010, 06:04 PM	#21
Dactyl Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 112	Okay, some seem to think that I want first-rounders guaranteed to make the majors and such as that. I don't, as I've made clear, that isn't the issue. Given that the draft is a crap shoot, is there anything to be gained by choosing draft picks yourself? Why not just let the AI auto-draft for you? Aren't you going to end up with just as many draftees rising to the majors? That's the main question. I started this thread because of a larger issue. In building an organization, where does the skill come in? I play with trading set to hard. On the normal setting, it's too easy to get good young talent from other clubs. At hard, it's rare that you can get good young talent without giving up some of your own. So, if you can only marginally improve your club through trades, and the draft is a crap shoot, where is the skill involved? In signing free agents? Not hardly. That's just a matter of money. The fact of the matter is that there are organizations in MLB that build their organizations in the draft, and that some are better than others at doing that. I've tried to build an organization that does that, but it hasn't worked, and I don't believe that it's the way I've approached it. I've got excellent or better coaches all through my system, a legendary scouting director, and I spend about ten million on scouting a year, but I don't seem to generate more than the occasional major leaguer, certainly not enough of them even to give me a winning record.

05-31-2010, 06:05 PM	#22
Dactyl Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 112	Okay, some seem to think that I want first-rounders guaranteed to make the majors and such as that. I don't, as I've made clear, that isn't the issue. Given that the draft is a crap shoot, is there anything to be gained by choosing draft picks yourself? Why not just let the AI auto-draft for you? Aren't you going to end up with just as many draftees rising to the majors? I started this thread because of a larger issue. In building an organization, where does the skill come in? I play with trading set to hard. On the normal setting, it's too easy to get good young talent from other clubs. At hard, it's rare that you can get good young talent without giving up some of your own. So, if you can only marginally improve your club through trades, and the draft is a crap shoot, where is the skill involved? In signing free agents? Not hardly. That's just a matter of money. The fact of the matter is that there are organizations in MLB that build their organizations in the draft, and that some are better than others at doing that. I've tried to build an organization that does that, but it hasn't worked, and I don't believe that it's the way I've approached it. I've got excellent or better coaches all through my system, a legendary scouting director, and I spend about ten million on scouting a year, but I don't seem to generate more than the occasional major leaguer, certainly not enough of them even to give me a winning record.

05-31-2010, 06:22 PM	#24
snepp All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,820	I would never let the AI auto-draft the early rounds for me, they're bound to draft a guy that your scout says is good, but the stats say is awful. You ask the scout for a recommendation in the 1st round and he suggests a guy that sucks. You pick someone else, then inevitably that same guy gets recommended in the 2nd round, then the 3rd, then the 4th, and so on. The madness finally ends when the AI drafts him in the 7th or so, long after the auto-draft would have had you selecting him.

06-01-2010, 10:13 AM	#26
knockahoma All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 792	I've read that expanding the draft to something like 30 rounds is likely to give you too many good prospects. Is that true? And why so? I kind of like the idea of a sea-full of fish, mostly minnows, some catfish and a few whales.