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Old 02-05-2010, 12:40 PM   #1
Kino29
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Historical stats? Why so far off?

Hi, i'm new to this game and love it so far!! I'm really excited about this game. It's exactly what I have been looking for 25 years! omg! Ever since I owned an APPLE II+ and recreated the 1985 season with Microleague baseball I have looked for something that recreated the same excitement in a baseball game and no game has done it. Period! Over the years i've played Tony Larussa, All Star Baseball, EA Sports etc and none of them were what I wanted. OOTP has so much potential.

Now after that great testimonial so this game sells.. my question is.....

How come my statistal stats are so screwy? I'm trying to recreate the 1985 season playing as the Cardinals, who under great managment turned a rag tag bullpen and speedy rabbits into the National Division champs and 1 out from the World Series title.

How come when analyzing my players their batting averages are far below what they really were in real life, and the pictures ERA according to the game are 4.00 and up???

I have now restarted the calculations several times, using different options. Stat neutralized, normal, and recalculate stats at beginning of the year and each time for instance Willie Mcgee's average is far below his real average of .353 that year. It is usually in the .295 range

I have even started a league and Mcgee has gone 1 for 48 to start the season! My best starters have lost their games. John Tudor who had a RL ERA of 1.93 that year and 20 games won, starts off with 2 losses in my league and Joaquin Andujar also a 20 game winner gets rocked out of the park in the 4th inning and gives up 5 runs in the 1st in the next. Seriously?? No historical 1985 season I have ever played has the Cardinals stinking up the majors so much. I can understand losing a few games and that the Cardinals really did need great management to win the pennant but it's very hard to do it when your players aren't living up to even 50% of their real life potential.

Tommy Herr who had 110 RBIS now strikes out with men on. Darrell Porter who pretty much sucked at the plate all year is now having a decent year??

Is there another database that I'm not aware of, or some option that lets me put the stats in as they really should be? Since I can't edit the # of at bats I have to recalculate everything when trying to edit the players so their batting averages are what they should be.

What stat has to do with clutch hitting?

As far as the pitchers go, I'm not sure how I can go about adjusting them as I can't adjust the # of hits they gave up.

This game has so much potential.. so why such goofy wrong stats for historical teams and horrendous gameplay on the field?
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Old 02-05-2010, 02:40 PM   #2
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One thing that might help is that you need to play a test season for the first year and i beleive uncheck the automatically import historical league totals and sim to begin playoffs and then turn them back on. Use those totals for your league totals. The game is pretty wacky for the first year. After that you should see a big improvement. You only need to do that for the first year.
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Old 02-05-2010, 03:14 PM   #3
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That will help alot. Run a test season, let it recalc and use those numbers for your 1st year.
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Old 02-05-2010, 05:09 PM   #4
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First of all, have you managed a full season or most of one with Cardinals? If you haven't tried playing out a full season, then maybe it's too early to draw conclusions based on results in isolation.

If you've simmed or managed many games and perhaps multiple seasons, then I have to believe that something is not set up correctly somewhere. There have to be league totals that have been modified or something that is conflicting with the real historical settings that you should be using.

Perhaps you could try running a test season as Gambo has suggested, but if you end up with statistics that are out of whack, then I don't see how using those numbers to recalculate league totals based on that season will help you. Then again, I've never tried this myself, so maybe I'm missing something.

Last edited by Charlie Hough; 02-05-2010 at 05:33 PM.
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Old 02-05-2010, 05:47 PM   #5
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I'm surprised nobody has mentioned this, but OOTP isn't a particularly good 'replay' game. Stats won't be all that close for individual players more often than not. The league numbers will be close by the end of the season (or should be), but a guy who hit .335 in real life might hit .295 one season in OOTP and then .360 the next, then .330, etc.

Look at their ratings and not their real life statistics. Look at your opponents and their ratings, as well as defense and park ratings. Some of it is luck, most of it is that OOTP just isn't built to ensure that McGee hits .353 in 1985.
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Old 02-05-2010, 07:13 PM   #6
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Hopefully, Markus will fine-tune OOTP11 for better statistical output. Part of the problem, though, is perception. Even the best "replay" games will show greater statistical variance than we might expect. See this helpful thread: What are these "distortions" season disks cause? - General discussion - Diamond Mind Baseball - Diamond Mind Baseball Forums - Message Board Yuku
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Old 02-05-2010, 09:03 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelric View Post
I'm surprised nobody has mentioned this, but OOTP isn't a particularly good 'replay' game. Stats won't be all that close for individual players more often than not. The league numbers will be close by the end of the season (or should be), but a guy who hit .335 in real life might hit .295 one season in OOTP and then .360 the next, then .330, etc.

Look at their ratings and not their real life statistics. Look at your opponents and their ratings, as well as defense and park ratings. Some of it is luck, most of it is that OOTP just isn't built to ensure that McGee hits .353 in 1985.
Its not advertised as a 'replay' simulation.
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Old 02-05-2010, 10:10 PM   #8
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Its not advertised as a 'replay' simulation.
No, but it does advertise "historical simulations" on its website, and that would surely lead many people to think that it provides historical replay functionality. It also claims to be the most "realistic" baseball management simulation on the market. Those who have played replay sims equate realism with statistical accuracy, so that's another source of potential confusion.

Pstrickert raises a good point, though. There are problems with statistical realism for all baseball games, including the hardcore replay sims. I have never played a computer baseball game where I was unable to create major deviations in player performance through my lineups and in-game management.

I remember Bob Brenly hitting .357 with the 1987 San Francisco Giants and Oddibe McDowell hitting at a similar clip for the 1990 Texas Rangers in MicroLeague Baseball. Brenly was purely a statistical anomaly because he hit only .267 in real life. But I was able to get McDowell to such a high average by having him bunt up the third base line and use his speed manufacture a lot of bunt singles. I also developed a pitch selection method that seemed to allow my pitchers to vastly overachieve.

Across any number of sims, including Strat-O-Matic, I have consistently been able to get players to steal vastly more bases than they did in real life, and somehow I'm able to get pitchers to post better statistics than their ratings or real life stats would indicate. A lot of it probably comes down to management style and an emphasis on defense, but I've been able to do it with stock rosters, so it's not a matter of building a fantasy team and creating these deviations.

I've yet to find a baseball game where statistical realism was as good as advertised, but most of them are close enough for me. And my goal is to get the teams to do better than they did in real life anyway, so deviation is the whole point for me.
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Old 02-06-2010, 02:02 AM   #9
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Its not advertised as a 'replay' simulation.
I know that. Kino29 may not. He should be made aware. OOTP is not a replay sim. At best, it is a fictional historical simulation. It is ultimately suited towards a fictional baseball environment, whether that is the 1920s or the 2020s.
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Old 02-06-2010, 08:55 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie Hough View Post
No, but it does advertise "historical simulations" on its website, and that would surely lead many people to think that it provides historical replay functionality. It also claims to be the most "realistic" baseball management simulation on the market. Those who have played replay sims equate realism with statistical accuracy, so that's another source of potential confusion.

Pstrickert raises a good point, though. There are problems with statistical realism for all baseball games, including the hardcore replay sims. I have never played a computer baseball game where I was unable to create major deviations in player performance through my lineups and in-game management.

I remember Bob Brenly hitting .357 with the 1987 San Francisco Giants and Oddibe McDowell hitting at a similar clip for the 1990 Texas Rangers in MicroLeague Baseball. Brenly was purely a statistical anomaly because he hit only .267 in real life. But I was able to get McDowell to such a high average by having him bunt up the third base line and use his speed manufacture a lot of bunt singles. I also developed a pitch selection method that seemed to allow my pitchers to vastly overachieve.

Across any number of sims, including Strat-O-Matic, I have consistently been able to get players to steal vastly more bases than they did in real life, and somehow I'm able to get pitchers to post better statistics than their ratings or real life stats would indicate. A lot of it probably comes down to management style and an emphasis on defense, but I've been able to do it with stock rosters, so it's not a matter of building a fantasy team and creating these deviations.

I've yet to find a baseball game where statistical realism was as good as advertised, but most of them are close enough for me. And my goal is to get the teams to do better than they did in real life anyway, so deviation is the whole point for me.
Simulation and replay mean two entirely different things, so no.............I wouldnt infer replay from simulation if I were new to the game.

I've never seen the fun in replaying a season when you know the basic outcome.
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Old 02-06-2010, 09:13 AM   #11
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Thanks for your suggestions everyone, i'm simming the first season now and going to start over and see how it goes.

My main concern was that when I looked at my hitters all their ratings seemed to indicate they were going to perform under what their actual real life performance was for that year. What I don't understand is when I set up a new season why "The resulting stats based on a neutral modern major league enviroment" are different every single time? Is a luck factor being thrown in there, which determines if the player will have a good year or not? The same is true with the pitchers, and what's worse I don't see a way to edit the pitchers so their performance will be increased. I imagine their are some editors out there that will allow me to enter this information though?

I do understand that there is no way for a game to recreate a historical season completely. Player managers are for the most part going to outperform computer counterparts and if the game totally recreates history you are going to have players under great management playing at an even higher level then real life! Going back to microleague baseball, yep I had Vince Coleman batting almost .500 as he bunted his way on base time after time, and In other games I've had players breaking the all time Hits, Singles, Stolen bases and home run categories all in one season. Something i'm sure all old time gamers do not really want. Nor do we want to be able to trade our way to an All star team.
A great manager is going to be able to coax his players into having Career seasons in order to win the pennant - that is why Steinbrenner kept rehiring Billy Martin over and over.
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Old 02-06-2010, 02:26 PM   #12
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Simulation and replay mean two entirely different things, so no.............I wouldnt infer replay from simulation if I were new to the game.

I've never seen the fun in replaying a season when you know the basic outcome.
I'm not aware of any computer baseball product that is marketed as a replay game. Some mention that they offer the ability to replay seasons, but the games are almost always referred to as simulations. Strat-O-Matic baseball calls itself a "simulation". Action! PC Baseball calls itself a "stat-based baseball game". And Diamond Mind says it's a strategy-oriented game with "baseball simulation technology".

One thing is for sure: they all market their statistical accuracy compared to real life performances.

So, when OOTP takes up the mantle of being a realistic baseball simulation, that's why some people will expect it to perform like these other games. Those other products set the precedent in the market, and they defined what a baseball simulation is.

By the way, you're right about one thing: a strict replication of a given season is boring. That's why I have yet to meet any "replay" gamer who actually wants this. People can read the box scores from the real season if they want to relive it. Instead, the "replay" gamers like to recreate the conditions of a season and then see how close to reality the results are, and especially how slight variations create interesting surprises like someone else winning a pennant or the World Series. Personally, I do historical sims to see how much better I can get a crappy team to perform than it did in real life. So I definitely don't want strict replication.

Kino29, let us know how things go for you.

Last edited by Charlie Hough; 02-06-2010 at 02:31 PM.
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Old 02-06-2010, 07:01 PM   #13
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I agree that it depends on your interpretation of historical accuracy and how you set up and play your league. I for one like stats to be in the ballpark and not exact copies of real life. I want Ty Cobb to bait around .367. But if he bats .301 and wasnt injured then something is wrong. But i had him bat .367 in one sim for his whole career.

No matter what you do there is probably gonna be players who just outpreform or did not preform as good as real life. In my current league ive just been spot checking some players since i saw this thread. Ive noticed the stats are pretty close for retired players. And for active players the 162 game average is close. I do have to keep in that i dont have the same amount of teams and play the same schedule as the real league at this point. I am about to start my 1878 season.

I play as commish. Im sure if i took the 1927 yankees i would end up with far different stats because of my decisiomns. Ruth & Gehrig's stats may look the same but players like Pennock or Dugan may not because i may use them more or less than real life.
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Old 02-06-2010, 07:41 PM   #14
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I'm not aware of any computer baseball product that is marketed as a replay game. Some mention that they offer the ability to replay seasons, but the games are almost always referred to as simulations. Strat-O-Matic baseball calls itself a "simulation". Action! PC Baseball calls itself a "stat-based baseball game". And Diamond Mind says it's a strategy-oriented game with "baseball simulation technology".

One thing is for sure: they all market their statistical accuracy compared to real life performances.

So, when OOTP takes up the mantle of being a realistic baseball simulation, that's why some people will expect it to perform like these other games. Those other products set the precedent in the market, and they defined what a baseball simulation is.

By the way, you're right about one thing: a strict replication of a given season is boring. That's why I have yet to meet any "replay" gamer who actually wants this. People can read the box scores from the real season if they want to relive it. Instead, the "replay" gamers like to recreate the conditions of a season and then see how close to reality the results are, and especially how slight variations create interesting surprises like someone else winning a pennant or the World Series. Personally, I do historical sims to see how much better I can get a crappy team to perform than it did in real life. So I definitely don't want strict replication.

Kino29, let us know how things go for you.
Thank you, Charlie, for that stunning description of the baseball gaming world as it exists today. However, I didn't ask for an outline of how games are marketed. I think we both know at least one game out there touts its 'replay' ability and its not OOTP. So, whatever point it is that you're trying to prove to me, consider it proven so that this part of the thread can die a swift death.

I appreciate the work you put into that response, however.
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Old 02-06-2010, 09:49 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie Hough View Post
I'm not aware of any computer baseball product that is marketed as a replay game. Some mention that they offer the ability to replay seasons, but the games are almost always referred to as simulations. Strat-O-Matic baseball calls itself a "simulation". Action! PC Baseball calls itself a "stat-based baseball game". And Diamond Mind says it's a strategy-oriented game with "baseball simulation technology".

One thing is for sure: they all market their statistical accuracy compared to real life performances.

So, when OOTP takes up the mantle of being a realistic baseball simulation, that's why some people will expect it to perform like these other games. Those other products set the precedent in the market, and they defined what a baseball simulation is.

By the way, you're right about one thing: a strict replication of a given season is boring. That's why I have yet to meet any "replay" gamer who actually wants this. People can read the box scores from the real season if they want to relive it. Instead, the "replay" gamers like to recreate the conditions of a season and then see how close to reality the results are, and especially how slight variations create interesting surprises like someone else winning a pennant or the World Series. Personally, I do historical sims to see how much better I can get a crappy team to perform than it did in real life. So I definitely don't want strict replication.

Kino29, let us know how things go for you.
OOTP, since it allows you to play several season's one after the other will have some variations on a season by season basis. BUT, at the end of a player's career, if you've played with development off, their stats will be reasonably close to their real life career stats on a per AB basis(meaning Babe Ruth will average roughly 1 HR every 11.76 AB's and so on and so forth). All of the other game's you've mentioned use season disks and do not allow you to play out a player's career.
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Old 02-06-2010, 10:12 PM   #16
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I'm surprised nobody has mentioned this, but OOTP isn't a particularly good 'replay' game. Stats won't be all that close for individual players more often than not. The league numbers will be close by the end of the season (or should be), but a guy who hit .335 in real life might hit .295 one season in OOTP and then .360 the next, then .330, etc.

Look at their ratings and not their real life statistics. Look at your opponents and their ratings, as well as defense and park ratings. Some of it is luck, most of it is that OOTP just isn't built to ensure that McGee hits .353 in 1985.
Believe me, I have mentioned it umpteen times in the past and have heard every rationalization for it from the usual bunch.

Funny thing is, all the tweaking Markus has been doing, such as adding more modifiers and such, to make the historical aspect more accurate makes me laugh because before he switched to this fantastic DIPS engine the game played out quite well for historical seasons, even single seasons by themselves. So his solution was to do away with the old engine, do this new one then tweak and tweak and tweak in an attempt to come up with something reasonable. Why not just leave it as it was?

His philosophy is to make the league numbers look as accurate as possible, which he has stated in the past, and he's done a pretty good job with that. He isn't concerned with individual players. So when people say it isn't set up to be a true replay game, they are right in that sense.

As I said in another thread, I have given up on OOTP for historical play and I use another game for that. If I were to use OOTP I would go back to 6.5, which I still have.

For fictional play, however, there is no game on the market anywhere near what OOTP is.
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Old 02-07-2010, 12:37 AM   #17
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I dont know about anyone else but for me the stats look more closer to real life than they did in 6.5. Didnt have recalc back then so Ruth sometimes wouldnt make the change from pitcher to hitter unless you imported him from say 1918.
Ty Cobb hardly seem to steal like he did in real life.
Maybe someone who still has both games should do the same settings and do
a comparison.

Last edited by BaseballMan; 02-07-2010 at 06:18 AM.
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Old 02-07-2010, 06:08 AM   #18
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I dont about anyone else but for me the stats look more closer to real life than they did in 6.5. Didnt have recalc back then so Ruth sometimes wouldnt make the change from pitcher to hitter unless you imported him from say 1918.
Ty Cobb hardly seem to steal like he did in real life.
Maybe someone who still has both games should do the same settings and do
a comparison.
I can't say anything about 6.5 since I don't have it, but if you run a 100 year sim, starting in 1905 and then look at the results, you'll see how accurate the game is, especially pre steroid era(for some reason the steroid era is TOO juiced) Here's the settings I use

Real stats
3 year recalc
current year's stats doubled
player development off
retire according to history on
AI settings- 100 ratings
trading very low up until the 1970's then low after that
injuries- very low up until the 1970's then low after that
free agency/arbitration- off until March 1, 1975
spring training off
reserve rosters on(no minors)

everything else default.For all the grief the game takes as a sim you'll be surprised at the results.
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Old 02-10-2010, 08:57 PM   #19
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Well getting back to this. First I had to pay for the game to get the right to SIM past the ALL STAR GAME. Which I did. Next I did try some simming of the season and the stats looked pretty good overall. However I spent days at this and could not figure out how to save all those stats into a file to use to now replay the 1985 season . I also tried using the 1985 stats starting in 1984 and simming that season but then the game adds the new seasons stats to their carreer 1984 stats and you end up with players stealing 150 bases and hitting 80 home runs. Since I want to play the 1985 season it doesn't make sense to sim the 1985 season and start in 1986. Anyways I spent days going over all the options and figuring out how it all works so it's all good.
I've got all the options just the way I want it so i'm ready to start the season. I'm having fun already playing around with contracts and setting minor league rosters, and have yet to play a game since I bought it!!
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Old 02-11-2010, 09:43 PM   #20
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I think you might have misunderstood what some of the other folks were recommending. I think they were suggesting that you run a full season and then have the game calculate new league totals after that season. Make note of those league totals and then use those as the league totals when creating a new baseball universe that starts in 1985.

You may have thought they were suggesting that you run a full season and then use the resulting player stats to set up your league or advance to the next season. But I believe they were talking about overall league totals. You might want to consult the online manual for more information on league totals and calculation. And if I don't have this exactly right, hopefully some of the other posters will correct me.
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