Prospects rating questions

owyatt · 01-13-2010, 09:38 AM

I am having a problem understanding the prospect ratings. I'll use Chris Tillman as an example. He is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball (in real life) but when I look at his profile it shows he has a potential rating of just two stars. When I open his "scouting report" tab, it shows that on 4-5-2009 one report had his potential rating at five stars and on 4-4-09 J. Jordan (who I am assuming is my scout) had him at 3 stars. So if one report has him at 3 stars and the other at 5, where does the 2 star potential rating come from?

Another example is Cliff Flagello, who has never been nearly as much of a big time prospect as Tillman, has a potential rating of 5 stars on his profile, but when you look in his scouting report it shows that on 4-5-2009 he had one potential rating of 1/2 of a star, and on 4-4-09 J. Jordan ranked him as a 5 star prospect. How can one report see him as not a prospect at all, and another see him as a 5 star guy?

I understand that prospects rise and fall over a period of time, but I just started my season (the season date is 4-6). Should I just pay attention to what they do on the field as opposed to the potential ratings?

Kelric · 01-13-2010, 11:22 AM

Alright, first we'll tackle stars.

Stars are really a loose guideline, not particularly suitable for a hard definition of a player's talent. I've had five star guys who do nothing and two star guys who give me solid seasons with Gold Glove defense. Good star ratings are generally based on the fact that the AI thinks his numerical ratings should add up to a good player when compared to his peers. He has the 'tools' necessary to perform, in it's opinion. The 2 stars for Tillman aren't coming from either your scout or the default scout opinion, but rather how the game thinks he stacks up in that league.

With Scouting on, finding a player's real talent level becomes a completely different animal. What setting do you have scouting accuracy set at? How good is your scout? How does that player compare to other players at his position throughout the league? And sometimes a scout is just going to miss on a player. In my opinion you'll be best served by looking at both what they do on the field and their ratings. Many players won't live up to their potential, others will exceed it. You just need to guess, basically.

Afino · 01-13-2010, 07:33 PM

Oh, and stars are heavily dependant on defense, speed, and power, especially when their positions merit the need for those traits.

Pita · 01-16-2010, 03:03 AM

I'm also having difficulty understanding the star ratings. I can cope with them changing erratically over time and not being accurate guides, but not so much with how they differ between the profile and scouting report page (which is where this confusion is happening).

For me, the differences don't depend on time between the reports, I can have my single scout give a completely different overall and/or potential on the profile page than in the scouting report.

I've searched the forums pretty relentlessly in order to figure this out, and the explanation seems to be:
-on the profile page, the ratings are relative to the standards of the current league and the position the player is currently in.
-on the scouting page, the ratings are what they were at the time, still relative to the league, but at the position the scout thinks the player should have...would have? I get a little confused here.

see here and here. there are numerous threads about it, so I'm not the only one who finds this bizarre.

Every player in my team (high school, fictional), has differing scout/profile ratings, by the same scout, on the same date. Just what positions does my scout think they should be in? Does both batting slot and defence position matter? How can I tell?

Kelric · 01-16-2010, 10:39 AM

Honestly, I just play with scouts turned off.

Dream Job · 01-16-2010, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kelric

Honestly, I just play with scouts turned off.

This helps how?

Kelric · 01-16-2010, 06:59 PM

Because I see a player's 'true' ratings. Though I muddy that by playing with 1-5 rating scales rather than 1-100.

Dream Job · 01-16-2010, 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kelric

Because I see a player's 'true' ratings. Though I muddy that by playing with 1-5 rating scales rather than 1-100.

What I meant is how does you telling us that you don't use scouts help us learn how to understand scouts?

Kelric · 01-17-2010, 10:49 AM

Oh. It doesn't. Not at all. I'm just talkative.

Cooleyvol · 01-17-2010, 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dream Job

What I meant is how does you telling us that you don't use scouts help us learn how to understand scouts?

Chill out dude. Kelric's been around here many years. Being rude to him for no reason isnt cool. He's already 'helped' on the subject of the thread in Post #2.

Why not thank him for that post rather than be rude to him for the other post? Its newbs like you who come here with a sense of entitlement who give newer guys a bad name and have kept many of the veterans around here from freely sharing their knowledge of the game. He offered up what he's learned on the subject of his own choice.

Dream Job · 01-17-2010, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cooleyvol

Chill out dude. Kelric's been around here many years. Being rude to him for no reason isnt cool. He's already 'helped' on the subject of the thread in Post #2.

Why not thank him for that post rather than be rude to him for the other post? Its newbs like you who come here with a sense of entitlement who give newer guys a bad name and have kept many of the veterans around here from freely sharing their knowledge of the game. He offered up what he's learned on the subject of his own choice.

I'm sure Kelric can post for himself which his over 3700 posts can attest to. Why not mind your own business and let Kelric and I handle ours? Thanks for your meaningless post.

Cooleyvol · 01-17-2010, 02:11 PM

........and thank you for again proving to be a tool. That's at least 2 of your 33 posts doing so. I'm sure there are others.

Dream Job · 01-17-2010, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cooleyvol

........and thank you for again proving to be a tool. That's at least 2 of your 33 posts doing so. I'm sure there are others.

You are quite welcome. Unlike you, I will not succumb to senseless name calling. Enjoy your day.

bubba22plus · 01-17-2010, 02:29 PM

Chill off you two. It's not cool.

Sabermetric Baseball · 01-17-2010, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bubba22plus

Chill off you two. It's not cool.

Might not be cool, but it's highly entertaining. I, for one, hope it continues!

joshtothemaxx · 01-19-2010, 02:27 PM

So I'm still unclear on an answer. I have my game open right now. Let's take a random player in my system. I have scouting on all the defaults basically, so average error. Plus i went with the 1-20 scale.

1B Andrew Lambo.

My scout Masanobu Ono has his Contact/Gap/Homerun/Eye/AvoidK as 13/15/11/8/11 on 4-5-2010.

OSA ratings are 8/10/5/6/5 on 1-1-2010.

If I go back to 2009, Ono and OSA only change by 1 or 2 points over the year.

What do each of these mean? I'm guessing there is some error in Ono's scouting. But what about OSA? Are those true ratings? Is that what the "computer scouts" think, so they are subject to just as much error? Help!

Flying Dutchmen · 01-19-2010, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joshtothemaxx

So I'm still unclear on an answer. I have my game open right now. Let's take a random player in my system. I have scouting on all the defaults basically, so average error. Plus i went with the 1-20 scale.

1B Andrew Lambo.

My scout Masanobu Ono has his Contact/Gap/Homerun/Eye/AvoidK as 13/15/11/8/11 on 4-5-2010.

OSA ratings are 8/10/5/6/5 on 1-1-2010.

If I go back to 2009, Ono and OSA only change by 1 or 2 points over the year.

What do each of these mean? I'm guessing there is some error in Ono's scouting. But what about OSA? Are those true ratings? Is that what the "computer scouts" think, so they are subject to just as much error? Help!

There is some error in Ono's scouting and the extent of which is determined by the overall settings you said and his ratings and talent preference (Tools/Ability). The OSA rating should be thought of as a "computer scout" or a very poor generic scouting service. The OSA rating, by and large, has a larger amount of error than any decent scout that you hire. As a player gets older and spends more time in the major leagues, the two will tend to converge in my experience.

joshtothemaxx · 01-19-2010, 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flying Dutchmen

There is some error in Ono's scouting and the extent of which is determined by the overall settings you said and his ratings and talent preference (Tools/Ability). The OSA rating should be thought of as a "computer scout" or a very poor generic scouting service. The OSA rating, by and large, has a larger amount of error than any decent scout that you hire. As a player gets older and spends more time in the major leagues, the two will tend to converge in my experience.

Awesome answer. Thanks so much!

As far as convergence, it makes sense and seems true. For example, they differ on Ken Griffey by only 1-2 points.

findinghomer · 01-19-2010, 06:16 PM

give this a good read: OOTP Baseball Manual - The OOTP Scouting Assocation (OSA)

joshtothemaxx · 01-19-2010, 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by findinghomer

give this a good read: OOTP Baseball Manual - The OOTP Scouting Assocation (OSA)

This is also awesome. Thanks so much!

01-13-2010, 09:38 AM	#1
owyatt Bat Boy Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 6	Prospects rating questions I am having a problem understanding the prospect ratings. I'll use Chris Tillman as an example. He is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball (in real life) but when I look at his profile it shows he has a potential rating of just two stars. When I open his "scouting report" tab, it shows that on 4-5-2009 one report had his potential rating at five stars and on 4-4-09 J. Jordan (who I am assuming is my scout) had him at 3 stars. So if one report has him at 3 stars and the other at 5, where does the 2 star potential rating come from? Another example is Cliff Flagello, who has never been nearly as much of a big time prospect as Tillman, has a potential rating of 5 stars on his profile, but when you look in his scouting report it shows that on 4-5-2009 he had one potential rating of 1/2 of a star, and on 4-4-09 J. Jordan ranked him as a 5 star prospect. How can one report see him as not a prospect at all, and another see him as a 5 star guy? I understand that prospects rise and fall over a period of time, but I just started my season (the season date is 4-6). Should I just pay attention to what they do on the field as opposed to the potential ratings?

01-13-2010, 07:33 PM	#3
Afino Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Buffalo, NY Posts: 3,827	Oh, and stars are heavily dependant on defense, speed, and power, especially when their positions merit the need for those traits. __________________ GUBA: Moscow Enforcers

01-17-2010, 02:29 PM	#14
bubba22plus All Star Reserve Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Equestria Posts: 808	Chill off you two. It's not cool. __________________ OOTP Resident Brony

01-13-2010, 11:22 AM	#2
Kelric Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Greater Boston Area Posts: 3,992	Alright, first we'll tackle stars. Stars are really a loose guideline, not particularly suitable for a hard definition of a player's talent. I've had five star guys who do nothing and two star guys who give me solid seasons with Gold Glove defense. Good star ratings are generally based on the fact that the AI thinks his numerical ratings should add up to a good player when compared to his peers. He has the 'tools' necessary to perform, in it's opinion. The 2 stars for Tillman aren't coming from either your scout or the default scout opinion, but rather how the game thinks he stacks up in that league. With Scouting on, finding a player's real talent level becomes a completely different animal. What setting do you have scouting accuracy set at? How good is your scout? How does that player compare to other players at his position throughout the league? And sometimes a scout is just going to miss on a player. In my opinion you'll be best served by looking at both what they do on the field and their ratings. Many players won't live up to their potential, others will exceed it. You just need to guess, basically.

01-16-2010, 03:03 AM	#4
Pita Bat Boy Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 2	I'm also having difficulty understanding the star ratings. I can cope with them changing erratically over time and not being accurate guides, but not so much with how they differ between the profile and scouting report page (which is where this confusion is happening). For me, the differences don't depend on time between the reports, I can have my single scout give a completely different overall and/or potential on the profile page than in the scouting report. I've searched the forums pretty relentlessly in order to figure this out, and the explanation seems to be: -on the profile page, the ratings are relative to the standards of the current league and the position the player is currently in. -on the scouting page, the ratings are what they were at the time, still relative to the league, but at the position the scout thinks the player should have...would have? I get a little confused here. see here and here. there are numerous threads about it, so I'm not the only one who finds this bizarre. Every player in my team (high school, fictional), has differing scout/profile ratings, by the same scout, on the same date. Just what positions does my scout think they should be in? Does both batting slot and defence position matter? How can I tell?

01-16-2010, 10:39 AM	#5
Kelric Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Greater Boston Area Posts: 3,992	Honestly, I just play with scouts turned off.

01-16-2010, 06:59 PM	#7
Kelric Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Greater Boston Area Posts: 3,992	Because I see a player's 'true' ratings. Though I muddy that by playing with 1-5 rating scales rather than 1-100.

01-17-2010, 10:49 AM	#9
Kelric Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Greater Boston Area Posts: 3,992	Oh. It doesn't. Not at all. I'm just talkative.

01-17-2010, 02:11 PM	#12
Cooleyvol Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Union City, TN Posts: 6,383	........and thank you for again proving to be a tool. That's at least 2 of your 33 posts doing so. I'm sure there are others.

01-19-2010, 02:27 PM	#16
joshtothemaxx Bat Boy Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 7	So I'm still unclear on an answer. I have my game open right now. Let's take a random player in my system. I have scouting on all the defaults basically, so average error. Plus i went with the 1-20 scale. 1B Andrew Lambo. My scout Masanobu Ono has his Contact/Gap/Homerun/Eye/AvoidK as 13/15/11/8/11 on 4-5-2010. OSA ratings are 8/10/5/6/5 on 1-1-2010. If I go back to 2009, Ono and OSA only change by 1 or 2 points over the year. What do each of these mean? I'm guessing there is some error in Ono's scouting. But what about OSA? Are those true ratings? Is that what the "computer scouts" think, so they are subject to just as much error? Help!

01-19-2010, 06:16 PM	#19
findinghomer Minors (Double A) Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 142	give this a good read: OOTP Baseball Manual - The OOTP Scouting Assocation (OSA)