Historical Draft Logic

Charlie Hough · 01-09-2010, 12:23 PM

I've been away from OOTP for quite some time now, and I have not yet purchased OOTP 10. One question I have is whether the historical draft logic is really strong for setting up a new fictional league with historical players released into a draft pool at the start.

Does the AI correctly see the future potential of players and the lengths of their careers? Or does it draft strictly according to current ratings and statistics?

It's been so long since I tried a fictional draft league with historical players that I can't remember if the draft logic was ever improved for this. Mostly I was playing historical replay leagues when I was last playing OOTP regularly.

Kelric · 01-09-2010, 02:00 PM

I don't play replays, I play alt-historical stuff, but I don't believe the AI will be drafting on real life future performances. It'll stick with what the engine sees for ratings and potential at that time.

Charlie Hough · 01-09-2010, 02:39 PM

That's what I thought the AI still does, but it gives all the advantage to the human general manager who can see future performance. I was hoping that this might have been improved or changed in OOTP 10, but maybe not.

Bluenoser · 01-09-2010, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

That's what I thought the AI still does, but it gives all the advantage to the human general manager who can see future performance. I was hoping that this might have been improved or changed in OOTP 10, but maybe not.

Please disregard - Misinformation on my part.

Spritze · 01-09-2010, 03:55 PM

If you choose to have a draft you will see a check box that DOES allow the program to look ahead. It is called draft value and will cause the game to value players based on their entire career.

Charlie Hough · 01-09-2010, 05:07 PM

Great news, Spritze. Was this included in OOTP 9 or just OOTP 10? I suppose I should load up OOTP 9 and have a look, but I didn't have it installed on this machine yet.

By the way, if the AI does not value players based on future performance, it IS a huge advantage to the human. Others may be using settings to make the game more random, but if you use historical players and have their ratings re-calculated every year based on the previous, forthcoming, and next season after that, the players tend to have a value almost identical to what they had in real life.

So, if the AI can't see their future value, the human GM can draft players who maybe start slowly but will have very bright futures. So it makes it easy to build an unstoppable team.

Spritze · 01-09-2010, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

Great news, Spritze. Was this included in OOTP 9 or just OOTP 10?

Included in OOTPX which is OOTP10 as well. I sure am glad the rest of the numbers OOTP displays are not Roman Numerals, although I suppose that should be an option for those who would enjoy that sort of thing.

Afino · 01-09-2010, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spritze

although I suppose that should be an option for those who would enjoy that sort of thing.

But if that doesn't happen, Markus isn't listening to us! He doesn't care about his customers!

OOTP WILL FAILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!

Oh, and /sarcasm.

Charlie Hough · 01-10-2010, 03:21 PM

I don't think the OOTP 10 manual is very clear on explaining the feature mentioned above. Is the predefined draft value supposed to allow the AI to see the future value of players when drafting them?

Here is how the manual explains it:

"This option is only available in historical leagues. The historical database now supports a predefined draft value that is used by the AI in the first-year player draft or inaugural draft in order to create more realistic (i.e. "true to history") draft selections."

If this means that the AI can "see the future" and make better selections based no future historical value, why isn't this feature also implemented for the AI to evaluate all players and not just potential draftees? It should use this same process to evaluate players for trades, free agency, etc.

Another way to do it would be to have the AI use the NEXT several years to evaluate players in the same way that allows the options to be set so that players are evaluated based on current and previous two years' statistics.

I just tried running a new historical game on OOTP 9, and some of the trades were absurd. I have the trade difficulty set to very hard and AI trades set to low, but the AI makes suicidal trades with other AI GM's because it can't see the future historical value of players. So a mediocre shortstop who is one year away from becoming worthless was traded for a young Bob Gibson. And another subpar player with no future was traded for a relatively young Jim Bunning. Take away the names, and these trades are still absolutely stupid on the basis of the future statistics. And that's all I would ask the AI to be able to see.

Spritze · 01-11-2010, 12:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

I don't think the OOTP 10 manual is very clear on explaining the feature mentioned above. Is the predefined draft value supposed to allow the AI to see the future value of players when drafting them?

Yes, it is based on their entire career.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

If this means that the AI can "see the future" and make better selections based no future historical value, why isn't this feature also implemented for the AI to evaluate all players and not just potential draftees? It should use this same process to evaluate players for trades, free agency, etc.

This been asked for but not implemented.

Charlie Hough · 01-11-2010, 04:49 PM

Sadly, the feature for predetermined draft value appears not to work at all. I just set up an inaugural draft for a new historical league starting in 1975. Among the top 15 picks were ...

#1 Hank Aaron (retired in 1976)
#5 Willie McCovey (hit an abysmal .204 in 1976, then had one more good season before going downhill and retiring by 1980)
#8 Frank Robinson (hit .245 in 1974 and retired in 1976)
#11 Harmon Killebrew (hit .222 in 1974 then a putrid .199 in 1975 before retirement)

Am I missing something, or is this feature not really allowing the AI to make sensible inaugural draft decisions?

Spritze · 01-11-2010, 06:48 PM

It covers a players full career (Debut until final game), not just what is left of it, so yeah, it only works for the rookie draft.

Charlie Hough · 01-11-2010, 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spritze

It covers a players full career (Debut until final game), not just what is left of it, so yeah, it only works for the rookie draft.

Hmm, the online manual says it's designed for both the rookie and inaugural drafts. Ah well. This is one area where the game needs huge improvement.

The only way I've found to force teams to make sane picks in an inaugural draft is to actually draft for all of them. But that takes an awful lot of time.

I wish I had some programming skill, because I might try to create a utility that would read from a given season in the Lahman database and then make recommended selections based on an algorithm involving current and especially future stats.

01-10-2010, 03:21 PM	#9
Charlie Hough Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 3,644	I don't think the OOTP 10 manual is very clear on explaining the feature mentioned above. Is the predefined draft value supposed to allow the AI to see the future value of players when drafting them? Here is how the manual explains it: "This option is only available in historical leagues. The historical database now supports a predefined draft value that is used by the AI in the first-year player draft or inaugural draft in order to create more realistic (i.e. "true to history") draft selections." If this means that the AI can "see the future" and make better selections based no future historical value, why isn't this feature also implemented for the AI to evaluate all players and not just potential draftees? It should use this same process to evaluate players for trades, free agency, etc. Another way to do it would be to have the AI use the NEXT several years to evaluate players in the same way that allows the options to be set so that players are evaluated based on current and previous two years' statistics. I just tried running a new historical game on OOTP 9, and some of the trades were absurd. I have the trade difficulty set to very hard and AI trades set to low, but the AI makes suicidal trades with other AI GM's because it can't see the future historical value of players. So a mediocre shortstop who is one year away from becoming worthless was traded for a young Bob Gibson. And another subpar player with no future was traded for a relatively young Jim Bunning. Take away the names, and these trades are still absolutely stupid on the basis of the future statistics. And that's all I would ask the AI to be able to see. Last edited by Charlie Hough; 01-10-2010 at 11:38 PM.

01-09-2010, 12:23 PM	#1
Charlie Hough Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 3,644	Historical Draft Logic I've been away from OOTP for quite some time now, and I have not yet purchased OOTP 10. One question I have is whether the historical draft logic is really strong for setting up a new fictional league with historical players released into a draft pool at the start. Does the AI correctly see the future potential of players and the lengths of their careers? Or does it draft strictly according to current ratings and statistics? It's been so long since I tried a fictional draft league with historical players that I can't remember if the draft logic was ever improved for this. Mostly I was playing historical replay leagues when I was last playing OOTP regularly.

01-09-2010, 02:00 PM	#2
Kelric Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Greater Boston Area Posts: 3,992	I don't play replays, I play alt-historical stuff, but I don't believe the AI will be drafting on real life future performances. It'll stick with what the engine sees for ratings and potential at that time.

01-09-2010, 02:39 PM	#3
Charlie Hough Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 3,644	That's what I thought the AI still does, but it gives all the advantage to the human general manager who can see future performance. I was hoping that this might have been improved or changed in OOTP 10, but maybe not.

01-09-2010, 03:55 PM	#5
Spritze OOTP Historical Czar Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Bothell Wa Posts: 7,253	If you choose to have a draft you will see a check box that DOES allow the program to look ahead. It is called draft value and will cause the game to value players based on their entire career.

01-09-2010, 05:07 PM	#6
Charlie Hough Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 3,644	Great news, Spritze. Was this included in OOTP 9 or just OOTP 10? I suppose I should load up OOTP 9 and have a look, but I didn't have it installed on this machine yet. By the way, if the AI does not value players based on future performance, it IS a huge advantage to the human. Others may be using settings to make the game more random, but if you use historical players and have their ratings re-calculated every year based on the previous, forthcoming, and next season after that, the players tend to have a value almost identical to what they had in real life. So, if the AI can't see their future value, the human GM can draft players who maybe start slowly but will have very bright futures. So it makes it easy to build an unstoppable team.

01-11-2010, 04:49 PM	#11
Charlie Hough Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 3,644	Sadly, the feature for predetermined draft value appears not to work at all. I just set up an inaugural draft for a new historical league starting in 1975. Among the top 15 picks were ... #1 Hank Aaron (retired in 1976) #5 Willie McCovey (hit an abysmal .204 in 1976, then had one more good season before going downhill and retiring by 1980) #8 Frank Robinson (hit .245 in 1974 and retired in 1976) #11 Harmon Killebrew (hit .222 in 1974 then a putrid .199 in 1975 before retirement) Am I missing something, or is this feature not really allowing the AI to make sensible inaugural draft decisions?

01-11-2010, 06:48 PM	#12
Spritze OOTP Historical Czar Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Bothell Wa Posts: 7,253	It covers a players full career (Debut until final game), not just what is left of it, so yeah, it only works for the rookie draft.