A Post Regarding Park Factors, Neutralizing OPS, and Something That Just Doesn't Work Right - Page 2

Buane · 08-26-2009, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Questdog

I seems obvious that the AVG factor of a park MUST affect the BAPIP rating of the hitter.....

I'd agree. That's really what I thought I'd find when I was testing it.

Buane · 08-28-2009, 12:32 PM

I might have better luck reposting this in the tech-support forum and getting it logged as a bug. I posted it here because 1) I wanted people to be aware of the problem, and 2) because it required a lot of explanation, I figured it was best to put it in a spot where it would get the most discussion.

Questdog · 08-28-2009, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buane

I might have better luck reposting this in the tech-support forum and getting it logged as a bug. I posted it here because 1) I wanted people to be aware of the problem, and 2) because it required a lot of explanation, I figured it was best to put it in a spot where it would get the most discussion.

It definitely seems to be a bug and would be super if fixed in the next patch.....

O2Brew · 09-01-2009, 10:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by risp2out

Could one or more of you very smart gentlemen opine on the relatioship between park factors and league total modifiers. As Questdog mentioned earlier, park factors IRL are descriptive, not prescriptive - that is, they reflect how the league totals were distributed. Now, in OOTP, you have league totals saying "I want x number of home runs hit by everyone this season." Then, YOU set certain park factors saying "I want a factor of 1.2 homeruns hit in park Y and 1.0 in park Z, but let's not change those league totals." This seems problematic to me, but I'm not the brightest bulb in the lamp when it comes to topics statistical. Anyway, I'm interested to learn more about this.

I need to run some more tests to confirm it, but my initial results indicate that changing park factors DOES alter your league totals. That is, if you leave your league total modifiers unchanged and increase the HR factors in your league you will end up with more HR for the season.

On a side note, when creating a league the park factors that get assigned are not averaging out to 1.0. The average factors for a 10 team fictional league were anywhere from .985 to 1.072.

Questdog · 09-01-2009, 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O2Brew

I need to run some more tests to confirm it, but my initial results indicate that changing park factors DOES alter your league totals. That is, if you leave your league total modifiers unchanged and increase the HR factors in your league you will end up with more HR for the season.

On a side note, when creating a league the park factors that get assigned are not averaging out to 1.0. The average factors for a 10 team fictional league were anywhere from .985 to 1.072.

It's only the AVG factors that seem to not be working....

O2Brew · 09-01-2009, 11:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Questdog

It's only the AVG factors that seem to not be working....

Looking at the data again, I may have jumped the gun on park factors affecting league totals.

But the park factors for each category definitely do average 1.0 for the league. It's easy enough to adjust the data so it does average out, but in a large universe I can see this being quite time consuming. It seems to me it should make some attempt to avoid having the league average 2B factor be 1.08. But that's not really the topic at hand here, perhaps I'll create a new post in the support forum after some additional testing.

And hopefully the AVG factor issue makes it into the next patch. The presented data seems quite clear to me.

Markus Heinsohn · 09-02-2009, 05:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Questdog

It's only the AVG factors that seem to not be working....

That is in fact correct, I just discovered a bug.

Fixed! Next patch it'll work alright...

Buane, good job on this study. Kudos!

risp2out · 09-02-2009, 06:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O2Brew

Looking at the data again, I may have jumped the gun on park factors affecting league totals.

But the park factors for each category definitely do average 1.0 for the league. It's easy enough to adjust the data so it does average out, but in a large universe I can see this being quite time consuming.

But, in the study conducted by the OP, wouldn't his two-team league have park factors that average out to 1.1 (given that he had a 1.0 and a 1.2)? Even if the game automatically sets up a distribution of factors that averages to 1.0, can't you alter this if you change park factors? I'm guessing if I made it easier to hit HRs at one park, the game wouldn't make it proportionately more difficult to hit them at others, right?

So, I'm still not quite getting it. If I set the league to hit 1,000 HRs in the season and then put all the teams in band boxes, does the game produce more than 1,000 HRs or make players "weaker" so that they still hit 1,000 HRs?

RonCo · 09-02-2009, 07:04 AM

Really nice work.

The HR/OBP interaction is likely due to the way the results engine (and possibly league totals) works. Assuming the strikeout rate is constant, which it would be in your controlled environment, OBP will be controlled by the HR-rate and BABIP. Since the league's BABIP is also being held constant a rising HR-rate will raise OBP and a falling HR rate will result in a falling OBP. My guess is that the OBP curve is not actually linear, but that a whole lot more data would show it is a very gentle curve that is close enough to linear to say it is.

I had found a League Totals bug in v9 that dealt with the interaction of HR/K/AVG that may or may not be playing in this to some degree, too. I won't be able to test it in X unless our league moves to it.

RonCo · 09-02-2009, 07:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O2Brew

I need to run some more tests to confirm it, but my initial results indicate that changing park factors DOES alter your league totals. That is, if you leave your league total modifiers unchanged and increase the HR factors in your league you will end up with more HR for the season.

The actual results of a league are not "capped" or otherwise constrained by league totals. League totals and park factors both independently modify the probabilities the results engine uses to determine outcomes. So, yes, changing the park factors without changing anything else will change the final results your league creates...as will changing the league totals.

RonCo · 09-02-2009, 07:17 AM

Only Markus can say for sure, but after thinking about this for a moment my guess is that the AVG ballpark factor is/was being applied to singles rather than to "hits on balls in play."

My logic:

- If BABIP is being held constant, then hits are constant.
- AVG is tied to singles, and singles increase, then...
- By definition doubles (and to a lesser extent triples) will decrease

Note: Triples are always a bit difficult to do these studies on because the sample size is always so small.

You could test this as being true by looking at the test league's resulting BABIP figures. My guess would be that they are pretty much constant.

RonCo · 09-02-2009, 07:22 AM

OK. I'm dense...I see you've got a graph showing your normalized BABIP is constant. So, yeah, my guess is that the bug Markus found was that he was applying the AVG park factor to singles rather than to BABIP.

RonCo · 09-02-2009, 07:24 AM

And, finally...my guess is that it's been this way for a few versions. So it's a really nice catch. Actually, it's a nice catch regardless!

Markus Heinsohn · 09-02-2009, 07:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ronco

and, finally...my guess is that it's been this way for a few versions. So it's a really nice catch. Actually, it's a nice catch regardless!

+1

Buane · 09-02-2009, 10:47 AM

Thanks for the responses, gentlemen.

Happy to have helped.

silvam14 · 09-02-2009, 10:52 AM

I admit to getting the googly eyes after reading the first few paragraphs, but it is work like this that leads to bug fixes that makes this community great!

Malleus Dei · 09-02-2009, 10:53 AM

Good job Buane!

08-28-2009, 12:32 PM	#22
Buane Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 164	I might have better luck reposting this in the tech-support forum and getting it logged as a bug. I posted it here because 1) I wanted people to be aware of the problem, and 2) because it required a lot of explanation, I figured it was best to put it in a spot where it would get the most discussion. __________________ Commissioner - Rising Star League Congratulations to the 2082 Champion Montreal Harfangs!

09-02-2009, 10:47 AM	#35
Buane Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 164	Thanks for the responses, gentlemen. Happy to have helped. __________________ Commissioner - Rising Star League Congratulations to the 2082 Champion Montreal Harfangs!

09-02-2009, 10:52 AM	#36
silvam14 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Dedham, MA Posts: 10,175	I admit to getting the googly eyes after reading the first few paragraphs, but it is work like this that leads to bug fixes that makes this community great! __________________ Senior "Nancy Boy" of the OOTP Boards _______________________________________________

09-02-2009, 07:04 AM	#29
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,510	Really nice work. The HR/OBP interaction is likely due to the way the results engine (and possibly league totals) works. Assuming the strikeout rate is constant, which it would be in your controlled environment, OBP will be controlled by the HR-rate and BABIP. Since the league's BABIP is also being held constant a rising HR-rate will raise OBP and a falling HR rate will result in a falling OBP. My guess is that the OBP curve is not actually linear, but that a whole lot more data would show it is a very gentle curve that is close enough to linear to say it is. I had found a League Totals bug in v9 that dealt with the interaction of HR/K/AVG that may or may not be playing in this to some degree, too. I won't be able to test it in X unless our league moves to it.

09-02-2009, 07:17 AM	#31
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,510	Only Markus can say for sure, but after thinking about this for a moment my guess is that the AVG ballpark factor is/was being applied to singles rather than to "hits on balls in play." My logic: - If BABIP is being held constant, then hits are constant. - AVG is tied to singles, and singles increase, then... - By definition doubles (and to a lesser extent triples) will decrease Note: Triples are always a bit difficult to do these studies on because the sample size is always so small. You could test this as being true by looking at the test league's resulting BABIP figures. My guess would be that they are pretty much constant.

09-02-2009, 07:22 AM	#32
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,510	OK. I'm dense...I see you've got a graph showing your normalized BABIP is constant. So, yeah, my guess is that the bug Markus found was that he was applying the AVG park factor to singles rather than to BABIP.

09-02-2009, 07:24 AM	#33
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,510	And, finally...my guess is that it's been this way for a few versions. So it's a really nice catch. Actually, it's a nice catch regardless!