Early Promotion and Player Development

Pirate Fan · 07-22-2009, 12:43 PM

In the on-line league in which I play, my starting catcher just went down for a few weeks. I am in the middle of a close race and am considering calling up a top-30 prospect from AAA. The prospect has about 3 months of experience at that level and after a slow start is hitting .290/.348/.500 but the Minor League System Report does not indicate that he is ready for promotion.

He appears to be my best option for replacing the injured player, but I am concerned that early promotion might harm his development. If anyone has any thoughts on this matter, I'll appreciate your input.

endgame · 07-22-2009, 01:11 PM

How old and how did his performance fair in the lower level minors?

Pirate Fan · 07-22-2009, 01:17 PM

He's 22 and had a year and a half in A ball and one year in AA. His full year in A he hit .311/.348/.434 and he hit .253/.299/.427 during his year in AA.

endgame · 07-22-2009, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pirate Fan

He's 22 and had a year and a half in A ball and one year in AA. His full year in A he hit .311/.348/.434 and he hit .253/.299/.427 during his year in AA.

Will he help you defensively, i.e. is he a good catcher? If he is, I'd say the risk is worth it. He's not an overwhelming prospect on paper, he is young enough to take a bump if he doesn't hold up over 10-15 games. It may as well happen that this is just the opportunity he's been waiting for to rise to the occasion and flourish. So me? I'd bring him up.

If you're the least bit concerned about hampering him - which it sounds like you're on the fence - and have an older 29-30yr old bench-sitting in AAA, then toss him up. He may already have a contract, which wouldn't hurt your finances like the prospect would, or at least add to the payroll.

On the other hand, in a close race (toward the end of the season?) I do not think I'd want mediocre on the field. I'd rather take my chances.

FWIW.

ssstump · 07-22-2009, 01:56 PM

I know next to nothing about real baseball, but I have learned a few lessons playing OOTP.

Seems to me that bringing up top prospects is pretty much a roll of the dice. I brought 5 up for spring training (because I didn't understand that they had to go through waivers even if sent back down before opening day).

After a month of games, on defense, they all played at major league level and could start daily.

At the bat, one is among the cream of the crop on my team, the others are horrible. Wasn't much to distinguish the hitter from the fly swatters in the data, so far as i can recall.

The lesson I learned is that I will wait until I am confident that the time is right.

Maybe shop for a 'serviceable' catcher to hold you over the season if you are not sure and don't wish to risk it.

Your mileage may vary.

Questdog · 07-22-2009, 02:51 PM

If a guy's hitting .290 in AAA, slugging .500 and he's 22 AND he's a catcher, he deserves a chance to play in the big leagues. If OOTP is punishing players for being promoted at 22, then that is just wrong.....

Pirate Fan · 07-22-2009, 04:43 PM

Thanks guys, I think I will give that catcher a shot.

I was a little concerned because a couple of seasons ago, I made a September call up of a top pitching prospect. He'd done reasonably well that year in AAA and deserved a shot, I felt, but the next season he quickly went from having having top-of-the-rotation potential to being mid-rotation material at best. Since then I've always wondered if testing him at the ML level caused the regression and thought maybe one should always wait until the Minor League System report indicates that a player is ready.

Anyway for now, I'm going to assume that the pitcher just took one of those development hits and the hit didn't relate to the September call up.

endgame · 07-23-2009, 12:48 PM

Please let us know how things turned out, in any event. Good luck!

DrSatan · 07-23-2009, 08:34 PM

What are his ratings? As long as his contact rating is above a 50/100 then he should be fine. After many years of playing this game I find the numbers players put up in the minors don't really matter. It's all about the ratings. I promote ONLY using ratings, and rarely look at minor league stats.

Pirate Fan · 07-23-2009, 09:24 PM

We use a 2-8 scale and he is now a 4-6-4-4-5, potential 4-6-6-5-5. Just going be ratings he is definately my best option as the other catcher I had up earlier is something like a 4-4-3-4-4.

An interesting observation about minor league stats not being indicative of higher level success. That implies that ratings don't determine minor league performance or at least that there is some other singmificant factor involved.

Anyway, the first sim with the rookie cathcer is tonight. I'll let you know how he does.

DrSatan · 07-23-2009, 10:36 PM

I'm not saying ratings do not impact minor league performance. I'm saying minor league performance doesn't impact ratings. At least not that I've noticed. I usually go by the following (100 scale)

<30 Contact = Rookie
31-40 Contact = A
41-47 = AA
47-50 = AAA
50+ = Majors

I use the same rule for pitchers using Stuff, Mov, Con ratings. However, with pitchers 2 of 3 ratings must meet the ratings criteria. With hitters, I don't always promote on Contact rating alone. I like to make sure the other ratings are moving up a little also. With some players the contact rating will increase, but all other ratings will stay in the gutter. Also, if the other ratings are good, but the contact isn't moving I'll still promote. The trick is promoting from AA to AAA. 47 contact is good for some players, and for others it's a little early. It's kind of a gamble, because if he's promoted to early he won't progress. It doesn't seem to be a big deal at other levels. I don't have hard data for any of this, just experience. I'm also in solo league that is in year 92. I've used the same team for all 92 seasons, and have 80+ division titles, and have won the World Series 46 times. I've built the team out of the farm system the entire time from trading, and I've probably signed less then 10 free agents in 92 seasons. So, based on that, I'm probably right in my observation.

Pirate Fan · 07-26-2009, 03:04 PM

I guess I could say that the operation failed but the patient lived.

The catcher went 2 for 20 with a double in his first week of play but I did go 4-2 against two above average teams. Also, the catcher had two sac flies in a game that I won 3-2 so I can't complain. I think I'll atart platooning him with my regular backup catcher if he doesn't do better this week.

Maybe I imagine it, but it seems to me that very often when a player is first promoted, he either struggles as above or really rakes often hitting .400 plus for the first couple of weeks before entering a serious slump that brings his average down to earth.

endgame · 07-26-2009, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pirate Fan

Maybe I imagine it, but it seems to me that very often when a player is first promoted, he either struggles as above or really rakes often hitting .400 plus for the first couple of weeks before entering a serious slump that brings his average down to earth.

Truth be known, that's my impression of hitters overall, regardless of their status, veteran or rookie. Any two series, or 5-6 game spread, can yield a low point or a hot streak; just that briefly, to balance for average.

I don't think it's common, IMO, for a .300 hitter to consistently go 3 for 10, etc.. It all consists of those combinations of struggles and successes. You are certainly right, some do last a lot longer, hit higher peaks and lower lows, but most- I think -quietly ebb and flow throughout their seasons.

07-22-2009, 12:43 PM	#1
Pirate Fan Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 166	Early Promotion and Player Development In the on-line league in which I play, my starting catcher just went down for a few weeks. I am in the middle of a close race and am considering calling up a top-30 prospect from AAA. The prospect has about 3 months of experience at that level and after a slow start is hitting .290/.348/.500 but the Minor League System Report does not indicate that he is ready for promotion. He appears to be my best option for replacing the injured player, but I am concerned that early promotion might harm his development. If anyone has any thoughts on this matter, I'll appreciate your input.

07-22-2009, 01:11 PM	#2
endgame Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 16,842	How old and how did his performance fair in the lower level minors? __________________ "Try again. Fail again. Fail better." -- Samuel Beckett _____________________________________________

07-22-2009, 01:56 PM	#5
ssstump Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 57	I know next to nothing about real baseball, but I have learned a few lessons playing OOTP. Seems to me that bringing up top prospects is pretty much a roll of the dice. I brought 5 up for spring training (because I didn't understand that they had to go through waivers even if sent back down before opening day). After a month of games, on defense, they all played at major league level and could start daily. At the bat, one is among the cream of the crop on my team, the others are horrible. Wasn't much to distinguish the hitter from the fly swatters in the data, so far as i can recall. The lesson I learned is that I will wait until I am confident that the time is right. Maybe shop for a 'serviceable' catcher to hold you over the season if you are not sure and don't wish to risk it. Your mileage may vary. Last edited by ssstump; 07-22-2009 at 02:01 PM.

07-23-2009, 12:48 PM	#8
endgame Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 16,842	Please let us know how things turned out, in any event. Good luck! __________________ "Try again. Fail again. Fail better." -- Samuel Beckett _____________________________________________

07-22-2009, 01:17 PM	#3
Pirate Fan Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 166	He's 22 and had a year and a half in A ball and one year in AA. His full year in A he hit .311/.348/.434 and he hit .253/.299/.427 during his year in AA.

07-22-2009, 02:51 PM	#6
Questdog Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: In a dark, damp cave where I'm training slugs to run the bases...... Posts: 16,142	If a guy's hitting .290 in AAA, slugging .500 and he's 22 AND he's a catcher, he deserves a chance to play in the big leagues. If OOTP is punishing players for being promoted at 22, then that is just wrong.....

07-22-2009, 04:43 PM	#7
Pirate Fan Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 166	Thanks guys, I think I will give that catcher a shot. I was a little concerned because a couple of seasons ago, I made a September call up of a top pitching prospect. He'd done reasonably well that year in AAA and deserved a shot, I felt, but the next season he quickly went from having having top-of-the-rotation potential to being mid-rotation material at best. Since then I've always wondered if testing him at the ML level caused the regression and thought maybe one should always wait until the Minor League System report indicates that a player is ready. Anyway for now, I'm going to assume that the pitcher just took one of those development hits and the hit didn't relate to the September call up.

07-23-2009, 08:34 PM	#9
DrSatan All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Parts Unknown Posts: 590	What are his ratings? As long as his contact rating is above a 50/100 then he should be fine. After many years of playing this game I find the numbers players put up in the minors don't really matter. It's all about the ratings. I promote ONLY using ratings, and rarely look at minor league stats.

07-23-2009, 09:24 PM	#10
Pirate Fan Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 166	We use a 2-8 scale and he is now a 4-6-4-4-5, potential 4-6-6-5-5. Just going be ratings he is definately my best option as the other catcher I had up earlier is something like a 4-4-3-4-4. An interesting observation about minor league stats not being indicative of higher level success. That implies that ratings don't determine minor league performance or at least that there is some other singmificant factor involved. Anyway, the first sim with the rookie cathcer is tonight. I'll let you know how he does.

07-23-2009, 10:36 PM	#11
DrSatan All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Parts Unknown Posts: 590	I'm not saying ratings do not impact minor league performance. I'm saying minor league performance doesn't impact ratings. At least not that I've noticed. I usually go by the following (100 scale) <30 Contact = Rookie 31-40 Contact = A 41-47 = AA 47-50 = AAA 50+ = Majors I use the same rule for pitchers using Stuff, Mov, Con ratings. However, with pitchers 2 of 3 ratings must meet the ratings criteria. With hitters, I don't always promote on Contact rating alone. I like to make sure the other ratings are moving up a little also. With some players the contact rating will increase, but all other ratings will stay in the gutter. Also, if the other ratings are good, but the contact isn't moving I'll still promote. The trick is promoting from AA to AAA. 47 contact is good for some players, and for others it's a little early. It's kind of a gamble, because if he's promoted to early he won't progress. It doesn't seem to be a big deal at other levels. I don't have hard data for any of this, just experience. I'm also in solo league that is in year 92. I've used the same team for all 92 seasons, and have 80+ division titles, and have won the World Series 46 times. I've built the team out of the farm system the entire time from trading, and I've probably signed less then 10 free agents in 92 seasons. So, based on that, I'm probably right in my observation.

07-26-2009, 03:04 PM	#12
Pirate Fan Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 166	I guess I could say that the operation failed but the patient lived. The catcher went 2 for 20 with a double in his first week of play but I did go 4-2 against two above average teams. Also, the catcher had two sac flies in a game that I won 3-2 so I can't complain. I think I'll atart platooning him with my regular backup catcher if he doesn't do better this week. Maybe I imagine it, but it seems to me that very often when a player is first promoted, he either struggles as above or really rakes often hitting .400 plus for the first couple of weeks before entering a serious slump that brings his average down to earth.