19th Century Stolen Bases

Kelric · 06-03-2009, 12:27 PM

I know it is a tough area to work with, but there still seem to be way too many caught stolen bases in the pre-1901 years. I'm up to 1897 in my sim and the steals leader has 879 steals and 610 CS for a 60% rate. The leader in CS has 706 steals and 681 CS. That is a 51% success rate. The CS leader had a year with 87 steals and 108 caught stealing. If I take the failures away from his OBP it drops from .383 to .211. Is any runner really that stupid?

I know that they used to count advancing from first to third on a single as a 'steal' of third, for example, but even then guys aren't going to get thrown out half of the time. Frustrating.

A quick glance at other historical numbers looks ok. A few too many 300 game winners (14 so far with more likely to break it by 1901) but that could just be random variation with the league. Guys also don't burn out like they did in real life where they could pitch three or four seasons of 400 innings and then disappear, they tend to stick around in OOTP.

Spritze · 06-03-2009, 01:58 PM

A few of the minor leagues in the olde days kept track of steals and caught stealing. Out of curiosity I added them all up about a year ago and the SB% was around 55% for the leagues. The league leader in steals in at least one case that I remember had like 50 steals and 60 CS's. Even though this was the minors I bet the overall pct holds pretty true for the majors as well. I think it was just a different game back then. Some of these leagues also kept track of SB and CS per catcher and one even tracked SB given up by the pitcher. Pretty early Saber-dudes?

The advancing thing is what caused many early SB% to be in the 90% area.

Kelric · 06-03-2009, 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spritze

A few of the minor leagues in the olde days kept track of steals and caught stealing. Out of curiosity I added them all up about a year ago and the SB% was around 55% for the leagues. The league leader in steals in at least one case that I remember had like 50 steals and 60 CS's. Even though this was the minors I bet the overall pct holds pretty true for the majors as well. I think it was just a different game back then. Some of these leagues also kept track of SB and CS per catcher and one even tracked SB given up by the pitcher. Pretty early Saber-dudes?

Well, that certainly is surprising. I still don't like seeing the CS board dominated by pre-1900 guys, but I guess there isn't much I can do there.

06-03-2009, 12:27 PM	#1
Kelric Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Greater Boston Area Posts: 3,992	19th Century Stolen Bases I know it is a tough area to work with, but there still seem to be way too many caught stolen bases in the pre-1901 years. I'm up to 1897 in my sim and the steals leader has 879 steals and 610 CS for a 60% rate. The leader in CS has 706 steals and 681 CS. That is a 51% success rate. The CS leader had a year with 87 steals and 108 caught stealing. If I take the failures away from his OBP it drops from .383 to .211. Is any runner really that stupid? I know that they used to count advancing from first to third on a single as a 'steal' of third, for example, but even then guys aren't going to get thrown out half of the time. Frustrating. A quick glance at other historical numbers looks ok. A few too many 300 game winners (14 so far with more likely to break it by 1901) but that could just be random variation with the league. Guys also don't burn out like they did in real life where they could pitch three or four seasons of 400 innings and then disappear, they tend to stick around in OOTP. Last edited by Kelric; 06-03-2009 at 12:32 PM.

06-03-2009, 01:58 PM	#2
Spritze OOTP Historical Czar Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Bothell Wa Posts: 7,253	A few of the minor leagues in the olde days kept track of steals and caught stealing. Out of curiosity I added them all up about a year ago and the SB% was around 55% for the leagues. The league leader in steals in at least one case that I remember had like 50 steals and 60 CS's. Even though this was the minors I bet the overall pct holds pretty true for the majors as well. I think it was just a different game back then. Some of these leagues also kept track of SB and CS per catcher and one even tracked SB given up by the pitcher. Pretty early Saber-dudes? The advancing thing is what caused many early SB% to be in the 90% area.