Ruth's HR Totals

Legacyof22 · 02-10-2009, 05:18 PM

I just started my first full-fledged historical sim from 1871, and in that time, expanded manually to about 60 teams. My leauge finished expanding in 1917.

One question I have is with Babe Ruth, who hit 80 HR a season (which I made 162 games) almost every year. Even for the Babe, this seems unrealistic,and I'm worried that all the great players down the road will be like this. Can anyone tell me if this is normal?

Spritze · 02-10-2009, 07:10 PM

More'n likely normal with 60 major league teams. All depends on the other hitters HR strengths. If low Ruth will hit more HR's if high opposite is true.

Recalc on? (1,2 or 3 year)

RonCo · 02-11-2009, 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spritze

More'n likely normal with 60 major league teams. All depends on the other hitters HR strengths. If low Ruth will hit more HR's if high opposite is true.

This is not correct.

It depends on the League Totals (and modifiers), ballparks, Ruth's ratings, and the ratings of all the _pitchers_ in the league. Ratings of other hitters will not influence the outcome of any Ruth AB.

Kelric · 02-11-2009, 11:00 AM

Also, with 60 teams, just how many games are you playing in a season?

Spritze · 02-11-2009, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

This is not correct.

It depends on the League Totals (and modifiers), ballparks, Ruth's ratings, and the ratings of all the _pitchers_ in the league. Ratings of other hitters will not influence the outcome of any Ruth AB.

As OOTP will spread the total number of HR's across all batters if Ruth has a 80 Rating and everybody else averages a 15 Rating he WILL get the most HR's irregardless of pitcher ratings. I have actually tested this (OOTP6.5) and it is true. Ratings of other hitters will influence the spread of HR's and so influence outcomes.

RonCo · 02-11-2009, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spritze

As OOTP will spread the total number of HR's across all batters if Ruth has a 80 Rating and everybody else averages a 15 Rating he WILL get the most HR's irregardless of pitcher ratings. I have actually tested this (OOTP6.5) and it is true. Ratings of other hitters will influence the spread of HR's and so influence outcomes.

There's no question that if Ruth is rated 80 and everyone else is 15 he will hit more HRs than the others. But Ruth (at 80) will hit the same number of HRs if everyone else is rated 15 as he will if everyone else is rated 80.

The number of HRs Ruth will hit is dependent upon his ratings, the League Totals, the ballparks he plays in, and the ratings of the pitchers he faces.

RonCo · 02-11-2009, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spritze

As OOTP will spread the total number of HR's across all batters if Ruth has a 80 Rating and everybody else averages a 15 Rating he WILL get the most HR's irregardless of pitcher ratings. I have actually tested this (OOTP6.5) and it is true. Ratings of other hitters will influence the spread of HR's and so influence outcomes.

And, just to be sure, OOTP does not distribute a certain amount of HRs across all the players in the league. Instead, it uses League Totals as an example of the average outcome of a single Plate Appearance, then determines the probability of an occurrance in each unique PA by comparing the quality of the pitcher and the hitter in question for that PA, and comparing those to the "average PA."

In other words, if you put 10,000 in for HRs in the League Totals, there is no expectation that players in your league are actually going to hit 10,000 HRs.

TribeFanInNC · 02-11-2009, 03:11 PM

It could be lots of things. Is anybody else particularly anomolous?

My guess is that you diluted your league too much and Ruth is facing AA pitching every third day. Ruth could have easily hit 80 HR in 162 games against AA pitching. Again, just a guess though.

Like I said, could be lots of things.

Garlon · 02-11-2009, 05:41 PM

Spritze is correct. If you put 60 teams in the league that's a ton more AB you are adding. In historicals, the LTM's track the league's HR%. With all those extra AB you are adding more HRs have to be hit. Snce Ruth is the top HR power hitter he is going to hit alot more than if there were only 16 teams in the league.

RonCo · 02-11-2009, 06:02 PM

Unless I'm missing something obvious, even with league total modifiers League Totals resolve to HR/AB, which is applied to every AB equally--Ruth or not--regardless of the number of teams in a league. The # of AB will define the number of HRs hit in that season (it should be roughly (Actual AB) * (HR LT + Modifier)/(AB LT).

So Ruth's HR rate should not be dependent on any other hitter.

Anyway...I guess I'm just outta my league on historicals. If it's something wonky on historicals, then trust Garlon over me.

Carplos · 02-11-2009, 06:40 PM

Quote:

irregardless

grrr...

Qrusher14242 · 02-11-2009, 08:27 PM

on my latest game, Ruth has only hit like 200 hrs in 15 years lol. I dont have recalc on and he just never developed his power. Only hit .300 twice and got moved to 3b lol

Spritze · 02-12-2009, 01:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carplos

irregardless......grrr...

OK how about Eerie guardless.

Kelric · 02-12-2009, 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carplos

irregardless... grrr...

Learn to love it.

Legacyof22 · 02-12-2009, 10:21 PM

He is only playing 162 games/season, no interleauge, so more like a 30 team schedule. Now he is retired and Gherig and Foxx are hitting 80 now. I susspect the dillution theory.

CatKnight · 02-25-2009, 01:37 PM

Dilution sounds plausible to me given the number of teams involved. Obviously there aren't enough historical players to cover 60 teams, so the game is making fictionals (weak fictionals) to try and fill the gaps in opposing pitching staffs.

CarolinaSoxfan · 04-24-2009, 03:26 PM

I think 80 is low for 60 teams. Just like homerun records tend to fall with expansion(1961, 1998) because you are facing guys who would not normally be major leaguers. Not sure how this goes with OOTP but if real baseball expanded to 60 teams next season you would see HR totals go crazy for guys like Pujols etc.

02-10-2009, 05:18 PM	#1
Legacyof22 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 45	Ruth's HR Totals I just started my first full-fledged historical sim from 1871, and in that time, expanded manually to about 60 teams. My leauge finished expanding in 1917. One question I have is with Babe Ruth, who hit 80 HR a season (which I made 162 games) almost every year. Even for the Babe, this seems unrealistic,and I'm worried that all the great players down the road will be like this. Can anyone tell me if this is normal? Last edited by Legacyof22; 02-10-2009 at 05:21 PM.

02-11-2009, 08:27 PM	#12
Qrusher14242 All Star Starter Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: CA Posts: 1,253	on my latest game, Ruth has only hit like 200 hrs in 15 years lol. I dont have recalc on and he just never developed his power. Only hit .300 twice and got moved to 3b lol __________________ "Go then, there are other worlds than these"

02-10-2009, 07:10 PM	#2
Spritze OOTP Historical Czar Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Bothell Wa Posts: 7,253	More'n likely normal with 60 major league teams. All depends on the other hitters HR strengths. If low Ruth will hit more HR's if high opposite is true. Recalc on? (1,2 or 3 year)

02-11-2009, 11:00 AM	#4
Kelric Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Greater Boston Area Posts: 3,992	Also, with 60 teams, just how many games are you playing in a season?

02-11-2009, 03:11 PM	#8
TribeFanInNC Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 4,019	It could be lots of things. Is anybody else particularly anomolous? My guess is that you diluted your league too much and Ruth is facing AA pitching every third day. Ruth could have easily hit 80 HR in 162 games against AA pitching. Again, just a guess though. Like I said, could be lots of things.

02-11-2009, 05:41 PM	#9
Garlon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,268	Spritze is correct. If you put 60 teams in the league that's a ton more AB you are adding. In historicals, the LTM's track the league's HR%. With all those extra AB you are adding more HRs have to be hit. Snce Ruth is the top HR power hitter he is going to hit alot more than if there were only 16 teams in the league.

02-11-2009, 06:02 PM	#10
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,396	Unless I'm missing something obvious, even with league total modifiers League Totals resolve to HR/AB, which is applied to every AB equally--Ruth or not--regardless of the number of teams in a league. The # of AB will define the number of HRs hit in that season (it should be roughly (Actual AB) * (HR LT + Modifier)/(AB LT). So Ruth's HR rate should not be dependent on any other hitter. Anyway...I guess I'm just outta my league on historicals. If it's something wonky on historicals, then trust Garlon over me.

02-12-2009, 10:21 PM	#15
Legacyof22 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 45	He is only playing 162 games/season, no interleauge, so more like a 30 team schedule. Now he is retired and Gherig and Foxx are hitting 80 now. I susspect the dillution theory.

02-25-2009, 01:37 PM	#16
CatKnight All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Cleveland, OH Posts: 1,199	Dilution sounds plausible to me given the number of teams involved. Obviously there aren't enough historical players to cover 60 teams, so the game is making fictionals (weak fictionals) to try and fill the gaps in opposing pitching staffs.

04-24-2009, 03:26 PM	#17
CarolinaSoxfan Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 245	I think 80 is low for 60 teams. Just like homerun records tend to fall with expansion(1961, 1998) because you are facing guys who would not normally be major leaguers. Not sure how this goes with OOTP but if real baseball expanded to 60 teams next season you would see HR totals go crazy for guys like Pujols etc.