Question Re: Home Run Pace

wiggins · 11-07-2008, 06:18 PM

I have a fictional league 45 games in. I'm using SkyDogs Quickstart with what I believe are Ronco settings. I have a player who has 151 Ab's and 20 Hr's. He is on pace to hit 74 HR's. 5 or 6 others are on pace for 50+. I know its early but I don't want a guy to hit 70 HR's. Here are the settings I'm using.
Hits 1.01
2B .949
3B 1.45
HR .913
Walks 1.162
HBP.679
K's .943

Am I doing something wrong?

Curtis · 11-07-2008, 06:53 PM

I'm betting that it's a sample size issue. Remember 1969? Reggie Jackson had 37 homers by the All Star break and was on pace for 65. At one point he was 23 games ahead of Ruth's pace and ten ahead of Maris's, but he finished with 'only' 47, third in the AL.

Bluenoser · 11-07-2008, 07:33 PM

It will adjust itself as the season wears on and the player starts hitting at a more realistic pace. For example, Luke Easter, my 1B in an historical league, was on pace to hit 100+ home runs after the first 15 day sim. After the next sim, he was on pace to hit 82, because his pace slowed down and became more realistic.

You have to put that stuff in perspective, especially early in the season.

Isura · 11-07-2008, 10:30 PM

Sample size issue. I simmed 100 years w/ this quickstart and biggest year was around 65. ONly a few times over 60.

blackrussian · 11-07-2008, 10:43 PM

josh hamilton had 95 (!) rbi's at the break this year. statistically, he had a decent shot a breaking hack wilsons record if he could have duplicated his first half. kinda makes me wonder how many rbi's wilson had through first half of the season.

phillosopherp · 11-07-2008, 11:32 PM

wow I have never seen that Ossie picture. I knew he like teh buttsecks.

wiggins · 11-08-2008, 01:43 AM

Thanks everybody.

Bluenoser · 11-08-2008, 06:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackrussian

kinda makes me wonder how many rbi's wilson had through first half of the season.

He had 82 Rbi's on the 15th of July, approx half way mark of a 154 game schedule. He had 104 at the end of July, 157 at the end of August.

11-07-2008, 06:18 PM	#1
wiggins All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 892	Question Re: Home Run Pace I have a fictional league 45 games in. I'm using SkyDogs Quickstart with what I believe are Ronco settings. I have a player who has 151 Ab's and 20 Hr's. He is on pace to hit 74 HR's. 5 or 6 others are on pace for 50+. I know its early but I don't want a guy to hit 70 HR's. Here are the settings I'm using. Hits 1.01 2B .949 3B 1.45 HR .913 Walks 1.162 HBP.679 K's .943 Am I doing something wrong?

11-07-2008, 07:33 PM	#3
Bluenoser Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: In The Moment Posts: 14,477	It will adjust itself as the season wears on and the player starts hitting at a more realistic pace. For example, Luke Easter, my 1B in an historical league, was on pace to hit 100+ home runs after the first 15 day sim. After the next sim, he was on pace to hit 82, because his pace slowed down and became more realistic. You have to put that stuff in perspective, especially early in the season. Last edited by Bluenoser; 11-07-2008 at 07:36 PM.

11-07-2008, 10:43 PM	#5
blackrussian All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 954	josh hamilton had 95 (!) rbi's at the break this year. statistically, he had a decent shot a breaking hack wilsons record if he could have duplicated his first half. kinda makes me wonder how many rbi's wilson had through first half of the season. __________________ v'

11-07-2008, 06:53 PM	#2
Curtis Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Watertown, New York Posts: 4,567	I'm betting that it's a sample size issue. Remember 1969? Reggie Jackson had 37 homers by the All Star break and was on pace for 65. At one point he was 23 games ahead of Ruth's pace and ten ahead of Maris's, but he finished with 'only' 47, third in the AL.

11-07-2008, 10:30 PM	#4
Isura Major Leagues Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 361	Sample size issue. I simmed 100 years w/ this quickstart and biggest year was around 65. ONly a few times over 60.

11-07-2008, 11:32 PM	#6
phillosopherp All Star Reserve Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 512	wow I have never seen that Ossie picture. I knew he like teh buttsecks.

11-08-2008, 01:43 AM	#7
wiggins All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 892	Thanks everybody.