Bat who in front of who?

[CRTsports.com]

I have wrestled with this situation for over a season now and still am not sold on which one to bat third and which one to bat fourth.

My manger says bat Colmenares third and Marquez fourth. I like to bat Colmenares fourth bc of the power advantage over Marquez since both have about the same walk numbers.

Colmenares batted third most of the 2010 season until the last month or so.

Any advise would be great!

[Kelric]

I generally stick my big power hitter 3rd if he has a good OBP as Colmenares definitely does. I also like getting power out of the four spot, which Marguez has not yet developed. How does your lineup at the 2 and 5 spots look? If 1st/2nd are strong, then Marguez doesn't need to hit 2nd. I'd probably put him 3rd to give a big top of the lineup with lots of guys on base for the emerging slugger Butterball. If the two hole is weak, I'd hit him second and put Butterball third.

[Kanonen80]

I have always heard "Slot your best hitter 3rd in the line-up" and right now I would say Colmenares is the better/more-developed hitter. That way your best hitter will always get to bat in the 1st inning.

[TribeFanInNC]

You can't bat the low power guy behind the higher power guy. Marguez has to hit before Butterball. Though I tend to agree that Marguez may be better hitting second for now with Butterball hitting third if you have other options behind him

[TNCubsFan]

I second Kelrick. Just looking at these two guys and not knowing the rest of the roster Marguez hits 2nd so he will be on base for Butterball when he goes yard. W/O a doubt Butterball hits 3rd for me anyway. I want that potential coming up as often as possable.

[Dagrims]

If these are your two best hitters and you don't have any other power in the lineup, Colmenares should hit fourth and Marquez should hit third. If you have another power hitter that's decent, move both of them up one spot, as others have posted.

[CRTsports.com]

Thanks guys for the input. For the people who have asked, here is how my lineup stacks up, 1-6.

Player - Contact/Power/Eye - Career OBP

Rao - 60/61/49 - .327
Encarnacion - 66/33/46 - .317(strikes out a lot)
Colmenares(above)
Marquez(above)
Shaeffer - 75/60/44 - .336
Quattlebaum - 58/63/67 - .369

[Dagrims]

Originally Posted by CRTsports.com

Thanks guys for the input. For the people who have asked, here is how my lineup stacks up, 1-6.

Player - Contact/Power/Eye - Career OBP

Rao - 60/61/49 - .327
Encarnacion - 66/33/46 - .317(strikes out a lot)
Colmenares(above)
Marquez(above)
Shaeffer - 75/60/44 - .336
Quattlebaum - 58/63/67 - .369

Given that, I'd probably bat Shaeffer second, Marquez would hit third, and then Colmenares would hit fourth. Quattlebaum could lead off, particularly if he has any speed.

[CRTsports.com]

Originally Posted by Dagrims

Given that, I'd probably bat Shaeffer second, Marquez would hit third, and then Colmenares would hit fourth. Quattlebaum could lead off, particularly if he has any speed.

Thanks for the idea! Rao is faster than Quattlebaum, 115 to 70. I wish I could provide you stats but when I play Quattlebaum in the one or two spot, he really struggles. He hit 28 hr's last year in the 6 spot so I think thats where he belongs. unless we move Shaeffer to 2 and then Quattlebaum to 5.

[SittingDuck]

If one has to be fourth and one third, then Marquez is cleanup.

To me, Butternut is the better hitter, although both are good. Butterhead is also a NORMAL hitter whereas Marquis is a PULL hitter. Neither has any speed whatsoever - though if a hitter has any speed you want the slower dude fourth. They are both on a certain high level as regards EYE & AVOID K's, so even there it is not so clear-cut.

Decide what you value the most in an 'ideal hitter' and that put that guy in the #3 hole.

[Charley575]

The dilemma from my perspective is that you really don't seem to have a genuine lead off man. I really HATE high K guys in the 2 hole, so Encarnacion is out of there. I'd bat Marquez 2nd and Colmenares 3rd, on the principle that your best OPS guy should hit 3rd, and that's Colmenares. At the same time, Marquez's nearly .400 OBP is wasted if he's behind Colmenares. Rao, Shaeffer, and Quattlebaum are all pretty comparable, so drop Encarnacion to 6th and put the guy with the best OBP 1st. Taking speed out of the equation, I guess I like:

1. Quattlebaum
2. Marquez
3. Colmenares
4. Rao
5. Shaeffer
6. Encarnacion (or, possibly 7th, if you have a high Contact guy who doesn't strike out as much.)

[CRTsports.com]

Originally Posted by Charley575

The dilemma from my perspective is that you really don't seem to have a genuine lead off man. I really HATE high K guys in the 2 hole, so Encarnacion is out of there. I'd bat Marquez 2nd and Colmenares 3rd, on the principle that your best OPS guy should hit 3rd, and that's Colmenares. At the same time, Marquez's nearly .400 OBP is wasted if he's behind Colmenares. Rao, Shaeffer, and Quattlebaum are all pretty comparable, so drop Encarnacion to 6th and put the guy with the best OBP 1st. Taking speed out of the equation, I guess I like:

1. Quattlebaum
2. Marquez
3. Colmenares
4. Rao
5. Shaeffer
6. Encarnacion (or, possibly 7th, if you have a high Contact guy who doesn't strike out as much.)

You pretty much hit the nail on the head. No solid lead off guy. Here is the contact numbers for the 7-9 hitters, 56/45/60.

Quattlebaum has struggled in the top of the lineup in the past but I will give it another shot this year and see what happens. I really like your possible lineup.

[CRTsports.com]

Charley575 - Here is the first inning with the new lineup. Did get some timely hitting with 2 outs but have to say it was successful!

[Charley575]

Cool! Hope it holds up for you.

[mattshwink]

Originally Posted by CRTsports.com

Thanks for the idea! Rao is faster than Quattlebaum, 115 to 70. I wish I could provide you stats but when I play Quattlebaum in the one or two spot, he really struggles. He hit 28 hr's last year in the 6 spot so I think thats where he belongs. unless we move Shaeffer to 2 and then Quattlebaum to 5.

The one thing you have to remember is that batting order does not matter as much as most people think it does. The traditional order does fairly well, but there are others that do better.

There are quite a few baseball statistics gurus who have run large simulations in an attempt to quantify the effect. The results:

1. Batting order does not matter as much as most people think. Depending on who you ask the absolute best vs. absolute worst order is worth 2-4 wins a year. Can that make a difference, yes. But batting your catcher (on most teams) first won't necessarily kill you (all simulations remove the pitcher, so usually juggling 8 players).

2. There are other systems, such as ranking by OBP or OPS, that usually does as well or better then the traditional lineup (but not by much). Most "traditionalists" would balk at hitting someone like A-Rod, Pujols, Jones or Bradley first. But this can actually have slightly better results.

3. There is no statistical evidence that protecting a hitter has any real affect (it is actually quite random).

With these in mind there is nothing wrong with a traditional order. But keep in mind that players that are fairly similar won't probably change things much (if at all).

References:
Batting Order:
Optimal Baseball Batting Order Construction: a case study using the 2000 Toronto Blue Jays
Batting Order Study
Are the Mets Out of Order? It Doesn't Matter - New York Times


Situational Hitting:
BTF's Baseball Scholars

Protection:
Protection Study - The Baseball Archive

And just for fun: Does size matter?
Does Size Matter (Part 4) -- The Hardball Times

Enjoy!
Matt

[Raidergoo]

Originally Posted by CRTsports.com

Charley575 - Here is the first inning with the new lineup. Did get some timely hitting with 2 outs but have to say it was successful!

The Prophet Bruce says "Small sample size".

[CRTsports.com]

Small sample size? One is good enough for me. Lol

Mattshwink: thanks for the info and links. Posting this from my blackberry at work so will have to read that info over when I get home!

[Tin of Maize]

Originally Posted by mattshwink

The one thing you have to remember is that batting order does not matter as much as most people think it does. The traditional order does fairly well, but there are others that do better.

There are quite a few baseball statistics gurus who have run large simulations in an attempt to quantify the effect. The results:

1. Batting order does not matter as much as most people think. Depending on who you ask the absolute best vs. absolute worst order is worth 2-4 wins a year. Can that make a difference, yes. But batting your catcher (on most teams) first won't necessarily kill you (all simulations remove the pitcher, so usually juggling 8 players).

2. There are other systems, such as ranking by OBP or OPS, that usually does as well or better then the traditional lineup (but not by much). Most "traditionalists" would balk at hitting someone like A-Rod, Pujols, Jones or Bradley first. But this can actually have slightly better results.

3. There is no statistical evidence that protecting a hitter has any real affect (it is actually quite random).

With these in mind there is nothing wrong with a traditional order. But keep in mind that players that are fairly similar won't probably change things much (if at all).

References:
Batting Order:
Optimal Baseball Batting Order Construction: a case study using the 2000 Toronto Blue Jays
Batting Order Study
Are the Mets Out of Order? It Doesn't Matter - New York Times


Situational Hitting:
BTF's Baseball Scholars

Protection:
Protection Study - The Baseball Archive

And just for fun: Does size matter?
Does Size Matter (Part 4) -- The Hardball Times

Enjoy!
Matt

I like this way of thinking about it.
In setting my lineups, I've taken to putting my highest isolated power guy in the cleanup slot and then the guy with the highest (or second highest) RC/27 in the 3rd slot. It looks to me that Colomoneres has slightly higher ISO Power, although neither one of them is particularly exciting in that department.