player development/draft pick busts

[dawurm9]

Fairly new to this game, or this edition at least, and I'm struggling big time with player development in my minors. I'm in my fifth year of as GM of Pirates, with the first two years having a top 5 pick in the draft. Out of those five years of drafting I can look through my minors and find two players that may pan out and play in the majors. Both are MRs that look to be borderline major league players. So 5 drafts, 150 picks, and two potential big leaguers that are middle relief guys?

- I have two very good scouts that scout the draft picks
- I let the AI control my minors
- I don't have a single field player, starting pitcher, or closer that I have drafted who is above 1 star in potential
- Prospects I have traded for or inherited when starting the game seem to be developing well, only draft picks struggling.

Does this seem off? Am I doing something wrong, such as letting the AI control the minors? Or is this just a case of bad luck and it will even out in the long run?

Thanks

[hurn0003]

If you have left the default setting of 100 on the talent change randomness it is likely you will continue to experience this problem. Try raising the batter and pitcher development speed to 1.050 and lowering the talent change randomness to 50.

[injury log]

I play with the default development settings, and all seems quite realistic. There are a lot of draft busts in OOTP, but that's true in real life as well. Best advice:

-send at least three scouts to the draft. If you're scouts agree on a player, he's probably good. If they don't, one of them is probably being too enthusiastic;
-it's rare to find any guys with even decent potential after the mid-2nd round (with the exception of relievers). You need a bit of luck for these guys to pan out;
-OOTP is especially cruel to young players, and underdeveloped players. The safest draft picks are batters with high Overall/Current ratings and good Potential. Guys who are totally raw aren't so likely to pan out, no matter what their Potential- though of course occasionally these guys become monsters. Like real life, pitchers are much riskier bets than batters in general; I don't draft pitchers in the first round often;
-grab some good relievers in the 3rd and 4th rounds. The AI doesn't seem to take these guys early enough, and they tend to pan out more often than not.

Good luck!

[dawurm9]

I get that busts should be common with the draft, but the numbers should say that a certain amount don't bust. 5 years of drafting and only coming up with 2 borderline ML middle relief guys still seems off.

I haven't been paying much attention to their current ratings - only the potential ratings. I'll try some drafts focusing on guys that are further along to see if that helps. Thank you both.

[DrSatan]

Try playing without scouts. I know it takes some of the "realism" away, but the current scouting system isn't very accurate. Also, make sure you have a rookie league in your minors. It helps younger players develop better, especially when their ratings are way below their potential. A lot of people play with A-AAA. The problem with this is, that 18yr old stud you draft is going to go from 5 star potential to 1 star potential because he's not ready for A. Another mistake people make is promoting base on performance. You should promote base on ratings instead. Just because a guy is hitting .330 in A ball doesn't mean he's ready for AA. Always make sure his ratings justify the promotion. For hitters, try this method for promoting based on Contact rating using a 100 scale.

Rookie - <30
A - 31-40
AA - 41-49
AAA - >50

This works pretty well for me and I have very few busts. I've tried the same approach for pitchers, and its still a little hit or miss. I usually see what the AI has to say when promoting pitchers. I will say MR's don't tend to crap out as often as SP's. Your best bet for pitching is to trade for it. Pitchers in AAA that still have good potential are good to go after.

hope this helps

[Faaip De Oiad]

Baseball Prospectus has a 12 part series about the draft, the number one overall and the number two overall had very good WARP. After that is was about 50-50 for marginal players through round 3. After that, you really do not get much value. When you look at career WARP, very few are elite from the draft.

[conception]

Originally Posted by DrSatan

Try playing without scouts. I know it takes some of the "realism" away, but the current scouting system isn't very accurate. Also, make sure you have a rookie league in your minors. It helps younger players develop better, especially when their ratings are way below their potential. A lot of people play with A-AAA. The problem with this is, that 18yr old stud you draft is going to go from 5 star potential to 1 star potential because he's not ready for A. Another mistake people make is promoting base on performance. You should promote base on ratings instead. Just because a guy is hitting .330 in A ball doesn't mean he's ready for AA. Always make sure his ratings justify the promotion. For hitters, try this method for promoting based on Contact rating using a 100 scale.

Rookie - <30
A - 31-40
AA - 41-49
AAA - >50

This works pretty well for me and I have very few busts. I've tried the same approach for pitchers, and its still a little hit or miss. I usually see what the AI has to say when promoting pitchers. I will say MR's don't tend to crap out as often as SP's. Your best bet for pitching is to trade for it. Pitchers in AAA that still have good potential are good to go after.

hope this helps

I agree, the best way to obtain SP is to trade for it. I almost never pick SP in the draft but I get enough hitters through drafting and effective trading that I can fill my minors with them.

I also almost never keep hitters around for that long after they get expensive, but I will sign good pitchers long term.

[johnnybourbon]

Originally Posted by conception

I agree, the best way to obtain SP is to trade for it. I almost never pick SP in the draft but I get enough hitters through drafting and effective trading that I can fill my minors with them.

I also almost never keep hitters around for that long after they get expensive, but I will sign good pitchers long term.

I had a method in OOTP5 that I havent yet tested in OOTP8 that kinda incorporates a moneyball theme. I always had a lot of lineup turnover b/c I would trade my players for prospects whenever they were just entering arbitration or free agency. Using this method freed up a lot of cash in my budget and allowed me to overbid for the best free agent every year, usually signed for a 1 year big money deal.

In ootp8, i have a different issue that I havent dealt with yet. I turned revenue sharing on, so, building up a huge cash reserve is nearly impossible...we'll see how i can handle it.

[DrSatan]

Originally Posted by johnnybourbon

I had a method in OOTP5 that I havent yet tested in OOTP8 that kinda incorporates a moneyball theme. I always had a lot of lineup turnover b/c I would trade my players for prospects whenever they were just entering arbitration or free agency. Using this method freed up a lot of cash in my budget and allowed me to overbid for the best free agent every year, usually signed for a 1 year big money deal.

In ootp8, i have a different issue that I havent dealt with yet. I turned revenue sharing on, so, building up a huge cash reserve is nearly impossible...we'll see how i can handle it.

I use revenue sharing also, but I bump up the amount of cash from 5mil to 20mil. This gives me a bit of a cushion, but if you play with the owner setting the budget, then it doesn't matter how much cash you have. The owner always gets butt hurt if you go over his budget regardless of how much cash you have.

[conception]

Originally Posted by johnnybourbon

I had a method in OOTP5 that I havent yet tested in OOTP8 that kinda incorporates a moneyball theme. I always had a lot of lineup turnover b/c I would trade my players for prospects whenever they were just entering arbitration or free agency. Using this method freed up a lot of cash in my budget and allowed me to overbid for the best free agent every year, usually signed for a 1 year big money deal.

In ootp8, i have a different issue that I havent dealt with yet. I turned revenue sharing on, so, building up a huge cash reserve is nearly impossible...we'll see how i can handle it.

That's what I do as well, minus the big money free agent. I sign my best players, especially pitchers, to extensions, and trade all the others for prospects. Usually by the time I trade them I have their replacement.

[Andy]

Originally Posted by DrSatan

Also, make sure you have a rookie league in your minors. It helps younger players develop better, especially when their ratings are way below their potential. A lot of people play with A-AAA. The problem with this is, that 18yr old stud you draft is going to go from 5 star potential to 1 star potential because he's not ready for A.

Is this accurate? I only have A-AAA in my minors. Just want to get some confirmation. Thanks.

[ctorg]

I only have A-AAA and I don't have too much of a problem. Naturally, 18-year-olds do tend to flame out (as in real life). Maybe it's true that they do flame out more often without a rookie league, but it hasn't had much impact on my leagues if that is the case. In fact, for a while I went with just a AAA level, and it wasn't too bad. Not great, but not too bad.

[Andy]

Originally Posted by ctorg

I only have A-AAA and I don't have too much of a problem. Naturally, 18-year-olds do tend to flame out (as in real life). Maybe it's true that they do flame out more often without a rookie league, but it hasn't had much impact on my leagues if that is the case. In fact, for a while I went with just a AAA level, and it wasn't too bad. Not great, but not too bad.

Thanks. That's good enough for me. I'm still in the first year of my league so I haven't been able to see if it has an impact.

[DrSatan]

Originally Posted by ctorg

I only have A-AAA and I don't have too much of a problem. Naturally, 18-year-olds do tend to flame out (as in real life). Maybe it's true that they do flame out more often without a rookie league, but it hasn't had much impact on my leagues if that is the case. In fact, for a while I went with just a AAA level, and it wasn't too bad. Not great, but not too bad.

I used to only use A-AAA, and after seeing almost all my 17-18 prospects flame out, I added the Rookie league to see what would happen, and I got much fewer busts. I also increased the Rookie league season length to 120 games. Increasing the schedule length helps the players develop quicker, because they are playing more. Some people use winter leagues for this. All I can say is from my experience having the rookie league prevents a lot of busts.

[conception]

Originally Posted by DrSatan

I used to only use A-AAA, and after seeing almost all my 17-18 prospects flame out, I added the Rookie league to see what would happen, and I got much fewer busts. I also increased the Rookie league season length to 120 games. Increasing the schedule length helps the players develop quicker, because they are playing more. Some people use winter leagues for this. All I can say is from my experience having the rookie league prevents a lot of busts.

I tried to run my fictional league team with just a-aaa and I got frustrated too. There just needs to be a place where those guys can go to develop against others at their talent level. I also increased the season length of my lower leagues, having a really short season doesn't feel like real baseball and it doesn't seem like the game treats it that way either.