New York Mets 2007-2008 offseason thread

[ctorg]

Originally Posted by Mike

From what I have read, Estrada may not be with the team very long. He is due arbitration and may not be extended. I guess they are still talking trade for another catcher with many possible trades, but none will include a top prospect. Minaya may be using Estrada as a hedge against teams trying to get the Mets to overpay for a catcher. That is one good part of the deal, he can work this many ways.
Losing Mota is a plus even if Estrada never plays a game in a Met uniform and never gets resigned. Addition by subtraction as Mota wore out his welcome. Maybe the Brewers can get something out of him.

Yeah, I was reading about this on MetsBlog yesterday. Whatever happens, I think Minaya did a great job on this one. I thought they'd have to cut Mota and eat the salary. I think you're right that this can help make it so that the Mets won't have to overpay if they do trade for another catcher.

[ctorg]

I thought the Santana talk had died down for the Mets, but it appears to have picked up again now that things have kind of stalled with the Red Sox. I'm actually a little annoyed because I don't want to get my hopes up about the Mets getting Santana only to see them walk away with Livan Hernandez.

[PlayTheKids]

Santana talk is only Twins trying to get the Yanks or Sox to ante up. Mets have no deal excluding Reyes that comes close. Only argument could be Twinkies wanting to get him out of the AL if possible.

[MorseMoose]

Originally Posted by PlayTheKids

Santana talk is only Twins trying to get the Yanks or Sox to ante up. Mets have no deal excluding Reyes that comes close. Only argument could be Twinkies wanting to get him out of the AL if possible.

If they offer up Reyes, the Twins are dead serious.

[ctorg]

Originally Posted by MorseMoose

If they offer up Reyes, the Twins are dead serious.

That won't happen, though.

The rumor is that the Mets are Santana's top choice. Apparently he'd prefer to pitch in the NL and in New York. I don't know if that means anything at all, though, or if it's even true.

[Mike]

There are many things to consider in this deal. Santana has a full no trade clause and wants to pitch in New York/prefers to go to the NL. The Twins wanted Boston or the Yankees to overpay in a trade war and both did not blink. So now the Twins are calling around trying to get another trade war going to up the price and I doubt it is going to happen.

So now the choice is go all out to resign him, going to be tough in that small a market. Start the season with him then try to trade him at some future date, maybe the trading partners will blink at a later time and up their offers. I think this is a huge gamble for the Twins. Trade him now and to a NL team to get him out of the AL which is the Twins wish list. Has to be a team that he wants to go to also and willing to go that extra mile to get him with whatever package they can muster. I think that team in the end is the Mets. Now it is just a waiting game to see what the Twins do.

[Skipaway]

Twins should be able to afford him, since they can construct his deal so most of the payouts would happen after they move to the new stadium.


That wouldn't be the best use of resource though, since the years before the move would be pretty much wasted, considering how competitive the division is right now.

To move Santana later would also reduce his trade value.

I still believe the best choice is to trade Santana this off season for talents that would be entering their peak in 2010, the first year in the new stadium.

[ctorg]

The word among admittedly-biased Mets fans is that one of three things will happen:

1. Santana will go to the Mets, as he would like,
2. The Twins will keep him because the Mets won't give them enough,
3. Another team (Red Sox?) will make such a good offer that the Twins can't turn it down, and Santana doesn't stand in their way.

[ctorg]

This offseason is not shaping up well at all so far for the Mets. They certainly haven't made the team any better. Their biggest accomplishment has been getting someone else to take on Mota's salary. If they don't get a good starting pitcher, I expect 2008 to be another backwards step.

[ctorg]

The Mets-Santana talk is heating up again. I'm trying not to get too excited about it. The price would be steep. Very steep. The latest I've heard is Martinez, Guerra, Gomez, Mulvey and Humber for Santana. Yikes! But the Mets need to do something big if they are going to compete this year, even if they do have to sell the farm.

[Melo]

Originally Posted by ctorg

The Mets-Santana talk is heating up again. I'm trying not to get too excited about it. The price would be steep. Very steep. The latest I've heard is Martinez, Guerra, Gomez, Mulvey and Humber for Santana. Yikes! But the Mets need to do something big if they are going to compete this year, even if they do have to sell the farm.

Yeah, supposedly the Twins have said that all five would be a done deal. I don't think the Mets would do all five. They may say chose Gomez or FMart but not both. The guy I would hate to lose the most is Guerra. He projects as a future #2 and has been developing very nicely. FMart projects really well too. Mulvey is a fast rising college grad whos has four pitches and a clue as to how to use them. He's a candidate to skip AAA and go right to the bigs. Humber had the TJ bust has a great CB and probably needs another full year before he can be evaluated.

I've said right along that I thought the Mets had a legit shot. Sanatana wants to pitch in NY and I'm sure the Twins would prefer to send him to the NL.

[ctorg]

Originally Posted by Melo

Yeah, supposedly the Twins have said that all five would be a done deal. I don't think the Mets would do all five. They may say chose Gomez or FMart but not both. The guy I would hate to lose the most is Guerra. He projects as a future #2 and has been developing very nicely. FMart projects really well too. Mulvey is a fast rising college grad whos has four pitches and a clue as to how to use them. He's a candidate to skip AAA and go right to the bigs. Humber had the TJ bust has a great CB and probably needs another full year before he can be evaluated.

I've said right along that I thought the Mets had a legit shot. Sanatana wants to pitch in NY and I'm sure the Twins would prefer to send him to the NL.

My gut - which may be interfered with by desire - tells me that the deal is going to happen, even if the Mets do end up giving up all five. They have three picks in the first round and a half of the draft this year, so they can at least restock a bit. I hate losing those guys, but the truth is that they are all unproven.

For some reason, I guess because it's Minnesota and an ace pitcher, I'm reminded of the Frank Viola trade way back when, when the Mets gave up West (who was supposed to be great) and Tapani (who turned out to be pretty good). I remember people saying they'd regret it, but really, the trade ended up being pretty fair. I think it's easy to get caught up in guys' potential, and baseball is one of the most unpredictable sports as far as telling how good a guy will be. The Mets (assuming they kept all 5) would be lucky to get one or two regular players out of the five, and very lucky to get one star player.

I've seen enough of the Mets sitting on their hands and playing conservatively over the years. This is a deal they need, even if it means selling the farm.

[Melo]

Originally Posted by ctorg

My gut - which may be interfered with by desire - tells me that the deal is going to happen, even if the Mets do end up giving up all five. They have three picks in the first round and a half of the draft this year, so they can at least restock a bit. I hate losing those guys, but the truth is that they are all unproven.

For some reason, I guess because it's Minnesota and an ace pitcher, I'm reminded of the Frank Viola trade way back when, when the Mets gave up West (who was supposed to be great) and Tapani (who turned out to be pretty good). I remember people saying they'd regret it, but really, the trade ended up being pretty fair. I think it's easy to get caught up in guys' potential, and baseball is one of the most unpredictable sports as far as telling how good a guy will be. The Mets (assuming they kept all 5) would be lucky to get one or two regular players out of the five, and very lucky to get one star player.

I've seen enough of the Mets sitting on their hands and playing conservatively over the years. This is a deal they need, even if it means selling the farm.

So you would do all five? There's a solid case to be made for each side of the debate. It's no guarantee that any of those 5 will amount to anything. West never amounted to anything, Aguilera was a decent closer for a period and Tapani was a pretty good pitcher for a stretch as well. What did Viola do? He had one really good year but was mediocre (under 100 EQA+) the other year and a half he pitched for the Mets. Baseball's funny that way. As much as people try to predict future success there are always unknowable, intagible factors that can occur and upset the whole apple cart.

[ctorg]

Originally Posted by Melo

So you would do all five? There's a solid case to be made for each side of the debate. It's no guarantee that any of those 5 will amount to anything. West never amounted to anything, Aguilera was a decent closer for a period and Tapani was a pretty good pitcher for a stretch as well. What did Viola do? He had one really good year but was mediocre (under 100 EQA+) the other year and a half he pitched for the Mets. Baseball's funny that way. As much as people try to predict future success there are always unknowable, intagible factors that can occur and upset the whole apple cart.

I would personally bet on the success of Santana over the success of the other five combined. That's very risky (and more expensive), but I think there is so much unpredictability in player development that it's a good bet. We'll see if I'm completely wrong in a few years (whether the trade happens or not), but that's how I feel now.

[Melo]

Originally Posted by ctorg

I would personally bet on the success of Santana over the success of the other five combined. That's very risky (and more expensive), but I think there is so much unpredictability in player development that it's a good bet. We'll see if I'm completely wrong in a few years (whether the trade happens or not), but that's how I feel now.

I thinks it going to happen myself. Just what is given up is about the only thing that I question. From what I've read Minaya is in Israel through this weekend so nothing is going to happen at least until Monday. Santana has said that he wants something done before pitchers and catchers report. If no deal is done by then, he'll exercise his full no trade clause and go FA. So, I would suspect we'll have an answer in the next few weeks. While I may rue
the loss of those prospects having a genuine ace in his prime would be really exciting.

[ctorg]

Originally Posted by Melo

I thinks it going to happen myself. Just what is given up is about the only thing that I question. From what I've read Minaya is in Israel through this weekend so nothing is going to happen at least until Monday. Santana has said that he wants something done before pitchers and catchers report. If no deal is done by then, he'll exercise his full no trade clause and go FA. So, I would suspect we'll have an answer in the next few weeks. While I may rue
the loss of those prospects having a genuine ace in his prime would be really exciting.

It would almost be like having Pedro in his prime. Imagine having a top four of Santana, Pedro, Maine, and Perez (in whatever order for the last three). Even if Maine and Perez fall back a bit, and no matter who is the fifth man, that's quite good.

[ctorg]

So, they have Santana now. I had a feeling it would happen, but I didn't want to get my hopes up too much. The Mets have a way of dashing them.

I've heard some grumbles about the amount of money owed to Santana, especially in the latter years of his contract. I find myself wondering if, due to inflation, those dollar figures might not seem so bad by the time they come to be current ones.

[Melo]

Originally Posted by ctorg

So, they have Santana now. I had a feeling it would happen, but I didn't want to get my hopes up too much. The Mets have a way of dashing them.

I've heard some grumbles about the amount of money owed to Santana, especially in the latter years of his contract. I find myself wondering if, due to inflation, those dollar figures might not seem so bad by the time they come to be current ones.

According to Cot's contracts, 5M is deferred annually which reduces the present day value to about 20M/year. Supposedly Santana was under some pressure to top the 150M mark for the total contract and this was accomplished with the deferred money, plus the vesting option. I guess it was important to Fehr, et al to set the benchmark of 150M, even if it really isn't after the deferral, option and the money added in for 2008.