NL Wild Card

[mauboy]

If the Rockies can win tonight, right now they're winning 2-0 against the Dodgers in the 5th inning, they'll be at worst 1 game back in the Wild Card. If the Padres lose, it'll be a 3-way tie with Phillies, Rockies, Padres.

Of course, the Mets just have a one game lead over the Phils now, Arizona falling apart quickly, so we could possibly see the three teams fighting for the Wild Card ALL end up in the playoffs while the Mets AND DBacks stay home.

That would be absolutely insane.

[mauboy]

Padres take 5-1 lead in the 5th, sadly. So it looks like that scenario just took a slight hit.

Obviously, the Rockies hold their own destiny almost as they've got 3 more against the division leaders, DBacks. They could knock them out single handedly.

Padres could knock out the team I want them to, the Brewers.

The scenario that is least likely is the Mets losing a majority of their games they have left against the Cards(1), Marlins(3).

My prediction:

Colorado Wins 4 of last 5: 89-73
Arizona Loses 3 of last 4: 89-73
San Diego Wins 2 out of 4: 89-73
Phillies Win 3 of 4: 89-73
Mets Win 3 of 4: 90-72.

If the Mets split their last four AND this scenario plays out, that would be quite the conundrum. Wow! What the hell happens?

If all end up with 89-73 record, the Phillies and Mets play for division title. Okay, I'm just going to stop there, because I have absolutely no idea what would happen.

[mauboy]

OMG, if this could please be moved over to Talk sports, that would be great.

[mauboy]

Thanks.

Okay, so what happens in this crazy scenario?

[Erik W.]

+1

[Raderick]

Padres lead 9-2. If things look the way they do now, Pads would be one game behind Arizona and would still lead the Wild Card by one game.

Arizona holds the tie-breaker over San Diego because of head-to-head.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by mauboy

My prediction:

Colorado Wins 4 of last 5: 89-73
Arizona Loses 3 of last 4: 89-73
San Diego Wins 2 out of 4: 89-73
Phillies Win 3 of 4: 89-73
Mets Win 3 of 4: 90-72.

If the Mets split their last four AND this scenario plays out, that would be quite the conundrum. Wow! What the hell happens?

In this scenario you have a three-way tie for the West Division tie, with those teams also being tied with another club for the wild card.

The first step is to determine the division champion, which would involve a three-way tiebreaker. ARI, COL, and SDN would be designated A, B, and C based on their relative head-to-head records. The playoffs would then be:

Day 1: B at A
Day 2: C at A/B

The winner on day 2 is the West Division champion.

However, there are still three teams tied for the wild card (the two clubs losing the division playoff and PHI). This happens because ties for post-season spots are based on the clubs' records after 162 games of the regular season and don't include the results of any tiebreaking playoff games.

So, the three clubs tied for the wild card would play a three-way tiebreaking using the same method as for the determining the West Division champion. The winner of that playoff would be the Wild Card qualifier. Since all the foregoing would take four days, the start of the NLDS would have to be pushed back by two days.

Originally Posted by mauboy

If all end up with 89-73 record, the Phillies and Mets play for division title. Okay, I'm just going to stop there, because I have absolutely no idea what would happen.

In this scenario you have a two-way tie for the East Division title and a three-way tie for the West Division tie, with all those teams also simultaneously tied for the wild card.

What happens is that NYN and PHI play a single playoff game to determine the East Division champion while ARI, COL, and SDN play a three-way playoff to determine the West Division champion using the method described earlier.

After the division titles are settled, there'll still be three teams tied for the wild card (the loser of the East Division playoff and the two losers of the West Division playoff), so another three-way tiebreaking playoff would be held. The winner of that would be the Wild Card qualifier.

[spark240]

The difficulty is that this could potentially require the NL WC team to play four games, in three cities, between their final scheduled RS game and their first postseason game. There are two days available.

Oops, I see LGO mentioned the NLDS problem too.

One thing I like about this is that the WC team in this scenario, for once, will actually enter the postseason at a disadvantage as they should.

[kenyan_cheena]

They wouldn't have this problem in a 2 divisions per league no wildcard format. The worst you'd have is two days of playoffs if there was a three-way tie in the division.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by spark240

The difficulty is that this could potentially require the NL WC team to play four games, in three cities, between their final scheduled RS game and their first postseason game. There are two days available.

It could have been worse. It was only this year that MLB stretched out the schedules for DS and LCS, adding more off days. (Interestingly, they added enough off days such that you could make the DS a best-of-7 series if you used a standard schedule for it and returned the LCS to a standard best-of-7 schedule).


The scenarios posed by mauboy would have been solved differently had the old rules on tiebreaking been in effect (these were changed to the current rules in either 2001 or 2002).

In the first scenario (a three-way tie for the West Division with those clubs also being tied with PHI for the wild card), the division tie would have been broken as mentioned before. But there would be no playoff for the wild card, since the old rules counted any tiebreaking playoff games in the standings for post-season qualification purposes. As a result, PHI would automatically get the wild card, since the teams losing the West Division playoff would have worse records (either 90-74 .5488 or 89-74 .546 compared to PHI's 89-73 .549).

In the second scenario (a two-way tie for the East and three-way tie for the West, with all simultaneously tied for the wild card), there's a one game playoff for the East Divison title and a three-way playoff for the West Division title. There may or may not be a playoff for the wild card depending on whether any teams had identical records after the tiebreaking playoff games.

For example, say NYN beats PHI in the East. PHI then has an 89-74 record. If the West playoff had team A winning both its games, thus winning the division, that means both team B and C each lost one game and finish with records of 89-74. That would mean a three-way tie for the wild card. If instead team A won its first game but lost the second to team C, that means team C wins the West while team A finishes with a 90-74 record and team B with a 89-74 record. In that event, there is no playoff for the wild card since team A has the better record.

[Tony M]

Need to go back to a single division for each league and just take the top 4. The Cubs have the 12th best record in the MLB at the moment and are going to be division champions - it's likely that 6 NL teams will have a better record than them and only 3 of them will make the playoffs.

Heck, going 4-0 the Dodgers could theoretically finish 4th in the West and be better than the Cubs - I know those are the rules and the teams agree to them but it would be very galling...

If the Yankees go 2-2 in their last 4 matches, the AL Wildcard will have a better record than the entire NL...

[ctorg]

The NL has an amazing level of parity between teams. Probably a historic one, though I haven't looked.

[PotatoPeeler]

Originally Posted by kenyan_cheena

They wouldn't have this problem in a 2 divisions per league no wildcard format. The worst you'd have is two days of playoffs if there was a three-way tie in the division.

While that is true, it really doesn't lend anything to the discussion because that's not how things are set up these days.

[spark240]

Okay, I must admit, that even though (a) I still dislike the whole idea of a wild card, and (b) my Braves are now officially out of it, I am getting a little more interested in this potential jam-up in the final RS series.

Here's the official word on how scenarios would be resolved.

Nice to see that the potential RS playoffs will be broadcast on TNT/TBS.

[spark240]

Originally Posted by redsoxford

Need to go back to a single division for each league and just take the top 4.

If there are no divisions, why have playoffs? The team with the best record is the best team.

[Raderick]

[PotatoPeeler]

Rockies win again! 11 straight. Now they've got a huge series in Arizona. They need to take at least 2 of 3 from the D-backs. A sweep could very well give them the division. Thank goodness they're playing at home.

[Big Hugg]

Yeah, the 5-way tie is officially impossible. There's no way Arizona and Colorado can finish the season tied.

[Green & Gold Heart]

Important weekend series:

Arizona @ Colorado
San Diego @ Milwaukee
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati
Florida @ New York Mets
Washington @ Philadelphia

I think the Phillies have to like their chances, but at the same time - look what the Nats just did to the Mets. Anything can happen.

I'll be able to watch some SD/MIL and I'll try to catch the Rockies and D'Backs on MLB.tv.

I hope ESPN is nice enough to show us a game from one of these series on Sunday night.

EDIT: I highlighted the ones FOX is showing for Saturday game of the week. They're all on at the same time though so it depends on where you live.

No word on ESPN Sunday night game. Maybe they're waiting to see where things stand after Saturday.

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by Green & Gold Heart

I hope ESPN is nice enough to show us a game from one of these series on Sunday night.

Nope, it has to be Yankees - Orioles or Red Sox - Twins, games that matter. You know how ESPN favors us.