Time Warp HOF Ballot 1975

[fhomess]

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

So the gold gloves are impressive
But do not mean that much to me and I think many voters are blinded by the shine of all that gold and did not stop to think of the numbers behind everything or the era that he played in

For me, I feel that OOTP's simulation model doesn't accurately reflect the impact of defense on the game, so even the statistics that it does produce aren't particularly meaningful. For that reason, I've decided that reputation based on range and the gold gloves that OOTP hands out are as good a measure of a players defensive contribution in OOTP than any other.

I think one of the things that is easy to overlook is that honoring a player by voting for him for the Hall of Fame is a bit of a subjective proposition. Everyone has their own opinions on what a player needs to do to get in. I voted for Ward because I felt he was one of the 2 or 3 greatest defensive shortstops in TWB history based on my previous paragraph. To me, what he did with the bat is extremely secondary. I think the HOF ought to have a place to recognize players that stand out in such a way. I don't think it just has to be guys that were great offensive players. Shoot, there are many great offensive players in the hall that were excruciatingly bad defenders. It isn't a gigantic leap to flip that standard around and admit great defensive players who were excruciatingly bad hitters. The problem here is that the impact of a player's defensive contribution is so much more difficult to understand than his offensive contribution. For that reason, I wouldn't take it to the extreme of admitting a player who hit .150 for his career no matter how good his defense. Shoot, it would even be hard for me to make the same type of vote for a first baseman as I do for Ward.

So it's not that my vote was cast because I was "blinded" by the gold gloves per se, merely that I'm evaluating the player's record differently than you are,

[jdw]

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

I dont trust OOTP when it comes to defense
And OOTPs Gold Glove selection is erractic to say the best

Correct.

Ward should have won the NL Gold Glove from 1952-56, and then from 1958-1968. In other words, every full season he played.

Since OOTP's GG AI is screwed up, he "only" won 12 GG's rather than the 16 he should have won.

To a degree, we are very lucky that Ward ended up playing for a Reds team that was a big GB staff without strikeout pitchers, and a Mets team that really didn't have good pitching and put a lot of balls in play. That "allowed" the AI to pick him because he ended up having "good OOTP defensive stats" - range factor largely.

There have been other great defensive players who haven't been as lucky.

Koback on this ballot was probably the best defensive 3B of his generation. If have to go back and see who else was in his class, but no one sticks in my mind. Take a look at the number of GG's he won.

Count was far and away the best defensive 2B of his generation. He got defensive bumps *after* he became a 10 2B, to the point that it pushed his SS skils up to a 9 range. But he bagged "just" 3 due to an injury (1959), moving to SS some of his career (1964-67 where he was opposite Ward), and OOTP's wacky GG AI.

Those are the breaks.

Ward offensivly was slightly above league average for his posistion

He pales when compared to Whitt, Joyce, Liao and Kreit and a few others

Agreed, but it misses a point - no one is comparing him to those four. More than that, just about everyone who has voted for Ward has also voted for those four.

So does his runs saved with his defense make up for his runs produced with his bat enough to gain parity with the likes of Kreit and Liao Jr who are the HOF MI standard for the era?

I'm not really sure where one came up with the notion that Kreit and Liao are the "HOF MIF Standard" of the era(s) that Ward played in.

Bottom of it?

Top of it?

Middle of it?

And the standard for middle infielders is better than it used to be

In TWB?

No. It's actually worse than it use to be.

There was a time when I had to argue to get this guy voted in:

OPS
1908 - .822 - 9th
1909 - .865 - 2nd
1910 - .933 - 3rd
1911 - .827 - 4th
1912 - .822 - 9th
1913 - .838 - 7th
1914 - .928 - 2nd
1915 - .888 - 2nd
1916 - .934 - 1st
1917 - .878 - 4th
1918 - .905 - 4th
1919 - .912 - 1st

That would be Jed Burke. He won two Batter of the Year awards.

Not only must they be solid on defense they are also now expected to contribute on offense

Again - it's lessened.

Who was the last middle IF in TWB who was as good of a hitter as Hitman *as consistently* as Hitman was?

Catus isn't that good. Hinze isn't that good. Rebosse has one season in that range, but the rest of his career is lesser... and a lot of it was over at 3B.

Not fair to compare with Hitman?

I like Hinze and Catus a lot, but I'm not sure they're in the class of Whale Perly, Ace Habermehl, or Tom Howard... perhaps they'll end up in the class of Herm Vardaman or Mike Fellner.

The quality of middle IF's in TWB has declined from what it was before the war (all of those players were put into the game prior to or during the war). And other than Hitman, *none* of those guys that I mentioned were as good as the great middle IF's from earlier generations - Jason Tedford, Whitey Kohse, Jed Burke, Genaro "Tito" Nuñez and of course the best player ever, Woody Woodson. That's not even touching on guys like Bobby Martin and Kid Fite.

Williams was 80% of the defense of Ward AND had a much better bat

At secondbase, Williams was 110% of Ward.

The problem is that:

(a) Ward was a Gold Glove SS in 1952 at the age of 20.

(b) Williams wasn't even a fulltime starter until 1958 at the age of 25

(c) Ward was a Gold Glove SS in 1968 at the age of 36.

(d) Williams fell below the line of being able to start after the 1967 season, when he was 34.

If Williams became a starter at the age of 20 (1953), held a job until the age of 36 (1969) *and* had that same OPS+ that he ended up with... I might actually advocate him despite the fact that he's my father and I've tended to be the least "homer" of all the folks who've put ancestors (or themselves) into the games over the years.

The thing is... he didn't.

1952-68 Ward (17 years)
1953-65 Joyce (13)
1954-69 Whitt (16)
1956-66 Liao (11)
1958-67 Williams (9)

You talk about runs saved, and runs prevented. I think everyone would agree that at their best, _every_ other player on that list was better than Ward. Even Count, who looks to have a lower peak than the other three, was better in 1962 and 1966 than Ward every was.

Ward was more about a career than some of the others for whom "peak" is the argument. Liao for example:

XR
1150.7 Ward
987.2 Liao

OWS
206.0 Liao
205.8 Ward

But do not mean that much to me and I think many voters are blinded by the shine of all that gold and did not stop to think of the numbers behind everything or the era that he played in

Actually, some of us slow down to remember the impact of range, especially in the middle IF, had in OOTP 6.0 (which covered most of Ward's career), and still have an impact on OOTP 6.5.

The impact of a 10+ range at SS and a 6 range at SS (Whitt and Joyce for much of their career) *was* pretty significant within the game. It's impact on Run Prevention was great in OOTP than it was in real life, which is one of the reasons so much effort was later put into chaging the defensive model.

John

[jdw]

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

For all the saber advances of the last decade and the explosion of computing power in coming up with new methods to evaluaute players, defense is still largely a unexplored frontier in terms of coming up for a formula for determining just how good or bad a player is at defense

"unexplored" is the wrong word for it. The discussion on defense in the saber community dtes back to before your birth. It's been constantly explored in that period, and frankly has some a long way from the days of "range factor" and the defensive component fo Linear Weights being an advance over Fielding Percentage and "observation".

"Not Yet Perfected" would be the way I'd put it.

And by "perfected" I don't mean having the 100% be all, end all formula. The older versions of Runs Created and Batter Runs and even the more recent additions of XR aren't "perfect". But the concepts of what makes up run scoring were long ago hit upon - getting people on and advancing them relative to outs made.

Defensive methods have advanced close to that, especially in looking at contextual/environmental influences on defensive stats.

It's been explored, and continues to be explored. It simply continues to be a work in progress.

John

[canadiancreed]

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

I dont trust OOTP when it comes to defense
And OOTPs Gold Glove selection is erractic to say the best

No argument there.

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

And since 6.5 does not even save even the simplist of defensive statistics it makes it extremly difficult to go back and judge a player on his glove alone

Agreed.

So it comes down to how much I remember that player and how he compares to those in his era at the same posistion

Ward offensivly was slightly above league average for his posistion
He pales when compared to Whitt, Joyce, Liao and Kreit and a few others[/quote]

Whitt and Joyce yes. By the the Liao got going Ward wasn't the same player (he seemed to be less productive by the early 60's), but I'd say closer in the 50's. Kriet probably as well.

Then again he wasn't expected to be an offensive weapon. At least not with the Reds.

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

So does his runs saved with his defense make up for his runs produced with his bat enough to gain parity with the likes of Kreit and Liao Jr who are the HOF MI standard for the era?

In my opinion yes, although K would give a run for his money as he was no slouch with the leather.

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

But my memories of the era and going on what I can find with the satistics at hand...

No he did not
And the gap is still rather wide

Then your memory has failed you.

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

An amazing defensive SS (even if one ignores the glitter of gold gloves he is still amazing)
But it cannot bridge the gulf between how many runs he failed to produce when up against the likes of Liao Jr or Kreit

With that pitching staff having a Joyce or Liao behind them would have doomed the team to second or third every year. Hence the defensive skill of Ward (and his 2B partners such as Goza, WIlliams, and a third that I cant' remember off-hand) were the difference between pennants and close-but-no-cigar.

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

And the standard for middle infielders is better than it used to be
Not only must they be solid on defense they are also now expected to contribute on offense

Which he did.

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

I am not going to say Ward is a black hole at the plate
He is not by any means

At least we'll agree on that.

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

But his denfence does not earn back the runs he did not produce at the plate
That is the long and the short of it for me

And on this we disagree vehemently.

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

I can see how someone would elect him if they placed a large emphasis on defense
He is not a very good HOF in my opinion but he in no way will tarnish the HOF like some of the others who have been elected

I could think of much worse folks then he.

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

He is also hurt by the era he comes into

You have Whitt and Liao Jr and Kreit which are the elite of the MI for the era

Whitt yes. Kreit was so elite that he spent five years as a backup. Laio is not elite at either SS or 2B.

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

Then you have Joyce and Williams who are just on the outside for me (I might toss in a vote for Joyce when some space on my ballot opens up)

JOyce shoudl take Liao's spot in your elite list for 50's MI's. IN fact Williams coudl make a case for being better then Liao in some circles.

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

Then a tier below that is Ward

Nah, cant' buy that snake oil.

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

If I am not going to vote for Williams and Joyce then there is no way in hell I am going to vote for Ward

Your loss. All three should earn votes.

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

Williams was 80% of the defense of Ward AND had a much better bat

I woudln't say much. I'd definitely say better (again he was also hired for defense but also to improve on the current 2B (dammit I cant' remember his name) and the fading Goza, but neither of them were a Teddy or a Yordy at the time.

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

And those 20% on defense do not really count for that many runs

Your figures are off them.

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

So the gold gloves are impressive
But do not mean that much to me and I think many voters are blinded by the shine of all that gold and did not stop to think of the numbers behind everything or the era that he played in

No blindness here, just the view of two WS pennants that without a solid defensive MI, would have not existed.

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

But I am not really looking to trash the man
As I said before, if he is elected he will in no way tarnish the HOF

More just pointing out why I voted for him and explaining my surprise over his support

And my explanation for one possible reason for said support.

EDIT: Or what john said.

[kreitena]

Just saying Kreit was a backup for 5 years is not the whole story. You have to remember what team he was on the bench for and what players were playing in front of him. He was a late first round pick at age 24, meaning that a contender obviously drafted him and most contenders don't have holes at such vital positions like MI.

[jdw]

As I said last year, Chris comments on Liao don't hold much water. He's a better player than any number of player who are on his ballot. If Liao played for the Reds in 1956-59, Chris would vote for him every year.

If this sounds harsh, it's a short version of what I wrote last year. To find it, go to the first page of this thread, clink on the link to last year's ballot, and the post is on one of the pages.

John

[jdw]

Originally Posted by kreitena

Just saying Kreit was a backup for 5 years is not the whole story. You have to remember what team he was on the bench for and what players were playing in front of him. He was a late first round pick at age 24, meaning that a contender obviously drafted him and most contenders don't have holes at such vital positions like MI.

Mikey K was a back up for the first three years of his career (ignoring the 1952 Sep call up), with a pretty fair amount of playing time. A reasonably valuable backup. He was a "fulltime utility player" in his fourth season - the Tigers essentially found a way to get him in the lineup fulltime, but spread it out among several positions creatively.

There was no shame in being a back up on the Mighty Tigers. His true positions were 2B and 1B. He played "out of position" at SS as a back up SS - it was a small enough amount each year that flew under the radar of having no rating there.

To truly start, he would have had to beat out Whale Perly or Dennis Kitterman. Here's what Perly and Kitterman did in those years:

.321/.395/.441/.836 Kitterman
.300/.393/.579/.972 Perly

To get an idea of the quality of that, here's Perly vs. Ted McMurray in those years:

.300/.393/.579/.972 Perly
.301/.394/.560/.954 McMurray

Here's Kitterman's 1953-56 vs. the four *best* full seasons Mo Goza had with the Reds (1949-51 + 1953):

.321/.395/.441/.836 Kitterman
.320/.377/.458/.836 Goza

It's not like those were even the best four years of Kitterman's career. Just four years where he continued to be a good hitter, especially skilled at getting on base ahead of the big bats in the Tigers lineup (Kress, Whale, Luther, Dirtbag).

Since he was blocked as a starter, manager Kid Fite was brilliant in using him as the original Super Sub and getting him an increasing number of AB+BB:

1953: 288
1954: 370
1955: 414
1956: 563

He then was a backup in the last two years of his career when he wasn't any good anymore. There's nothing wrong with that.

John

[tward13]

And finally (or not knowing this group) although this may not bea popular take on things, I add my own quirk to voting.

In our TWB world it's 1975. The HoF voters are not considering UZR's, OPS+ and the like. That's in the future. They vote on rep, awards and basic stats.

Maybe silly on my part, but a way I try to look at things within the "reality" of the TWB universe.

[canadiancreed]

Originally Posted by jdw

If Liao played for the Reds in 1956-59, Chris would vote for him every year.

Which is funny because I'm the one that traded him away because he had Ward in front of him (although he was a 2B in my organization) a year later I would acquire Williams to fill the slot that Liao couldn't manage. But nice to dismiss my votes as pure homerism. Guess we should just all vote the same?

And finally (or not knowing this group) although this may not bea popular take on things, I add my own quirk to voting.

In our TWB world it's 1975. The HoF voters are not considering UZR's, OPS+ and the like. That's in the future. They vote on rep, awards and basic stats.

Maybe silly on my part, but a way I try to look at things within the "reality" of the TWB universe.

Actually this makes sense and is similar to how I look at it. Then again I dont' know most of the new formulas anyways so maybe ti fits right in to the era.

[jdw]

Originally Posted by canadiancreed

Which is funny because I'm the one that traded him away because he had Ward in front of him (although he was a 2B in my organization)

You didn't trade him because you had Ward infront of him. The Reds were always going to play him at 2B - he didn't have the defense at SS that you liked.

He was a 2B for most of his career. He did have the ability to play SS, so there were times where is was adventageous for his teams to move him there. But he was largely a 2B.

a year later I would acquire Williams to fill the slot that Liao couldn't manage.

You traded Liao to get Cook and Ingram.

You traded for Williams in the Praks deal. Praks to play CF, and Williams to (a) fill in at SS while Ward was down, and (b) eventually take over at the following year.

Liao could have done both of the things Williams did in 1957. Hell... he hit .308/.405/.401/.806 for the Cards that year. If you had him, he would have been the starting 2B all year, hit #2, and Griss would have been the back up at 2B/SS/3B and stepped in when Ward went down.

But nice to dismiss my votes as pure homerism. Guess we should just all vote the same?

I didn't dismiss *all* your votes as homer ones. After all, there are people on the ballot who didn't play for you.

I'm simply saying that if Liao played for you in 1956-59, he would be on your ballot.


John

[fvamos]

Noel
Liao Jr.
Booker
Lemmings
Whitt
Granger
Tjeenk-Willink
Cook

Thanks for the wait...I like Ward, I personally don't agree on the gold glove analysis completely. I would have to go back and look but actual ratings 1-2 seasons I know Liao was as close defensively to Ward but the way OOTp evaluates GG always pushed Ward to the top as well. I think Ward is a future HOF because of the awards toTom's point but I don't see him as a first timer, IMO.Liao was a very decent fielder that didn't necessairly show in the ratings but statisically was more than adequate

[fvamos]

I believe well documented that Chris' Reds thought of Liao as a hack....brought up the whole Charley Harrington/Reds war I believe

[canadiancreed]

Originally Posted by fvamos

I believe well documented that Chris' Reds thought of Liao as a hack....brought up the whole Charley Harrington/Reds war I believe

Actually it was the 1957 or 58 All Star game with the uncharacteristic Makris blowup. I forget where the story is on that, but I'm usre it's on the old site.

EDIT: Yep, here it is. http://www.southernbaseball.com/modu...rticle&sid=151

[jdw]

Three players elected to the Hall of Fame with 19 ballots counted:

Asa Booker           100.0%
Dave Lemmings        100.0%
Kenneth Whitt         94.7%

Alan Liao Jr.         68.4%
Dennis Ward           57.9%
Lex Tjeenk-Willink    47.4%
Luther Ormiston       47.4%
Hank Makris           42.1%
Roger Joyce           42.1%
Abraham Noel          31.6%
Corky Stell           31.6%
Wilford Woodworth     31.6%
Ben Cook              26.3%
Bud Ayers             21.1%
Cal Granger           21.1%
Lucien Arbour         15.8%
Bobby Johnson         10.5%
Bud Ulrich            10.5%
Boris Zimyanin         5.3%
Chris Delp             5.3%
Sam O'Hara             5.3%

Wendell Aldwin         0.0%
Walter Davis           0.0%
Christopher Kobeck     0.0%
Larry Long             0.0%
Pete Pugliese          0.0%
John Surette           0.0%
Doug Williams          0.0%

The following players did not receive 5% of the vote and fell off the ballot. The year they become eligible for the VC is listed in parenthesis:

Walter Davis (1987)
Christopher Kobeck (1990)
Larry Long (1990)
Pete Pugliese (1990)
John Surette (1990)
Doug Williams (1990)

Added to the ballot next year:

Brad De la Garza
Earl Taylor
Henry Thomas


John