Arizona Diamondbacks 2007

[darkhorse]

It seems reasonable that a division leader should have their own thread, even at this late date.

Dbacks just signed 31 year old outfielder Eric Byrnes, in the midst of a career best season, to a 3/30 mil deal. I guess Gary Matthews, Jr. established the 10 mil per year standard for this type player.

'Tis good to be a mediocre big league player.

[MuertoDesagradecido]

So, so glad they did that or he was a Giant all the way. Sabean loves to sign over-the-hill players who always hit well against us - I think it's possible that he doesn't even look at statistics and judges players solely as to how well he personally sees them play against us

[Green & Gold Heart]

LOL

Who cares about that glut of young outfielders?

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL...

[koohead]

Odd move. Dbacks have lots of potential and appear to be moving towards giving their youth a chance to play. Young is the CF..that's a gimme. Just brought up Upton...so he's set in RF next year. Carlos Quentin is suppose to be in their OF, and Connor Jackson has all but lost his spot at 1B. So why sign a huge contract for Byrnes? why not take the money and go after some pitching to go with webb?

Dbacks are a fun team to watch though. the youth keeps them in games, and the hustle and energy is nice to see at the professional level.

How about them bringing back BK (that's Byun Hun Kim)? odd move, but he was always a fan fav here. suppose to get the start Wednesday night so hopefully it goes well.

[darkhorse]

Justin Upton is going to be a monster. Better than his big brother, who's gonna be a star in his own right.

[CMH]

Eh, me thinks Byrnes is a more qualified $10 million man than Matthews Jr.

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by YankeePride

Eh, me thinks Byrnes is a more qualified $10 million man than Matthews Jr.

If so, it's not by much. Byrnes deal is better 'cuz it's two years shorter and Eric is almost two years younger than GMJ.

[CMH]

Originally Posted by darkhorse

If so, it's not by much. Byrnes deal is better 'cuz it's two years shorter and Eric is almost two years younger than GMJ.

Oh yea. I won't say he's much better.

I'm just bringing it up because I remember quite a few comments on Gary Matthews Jr. deserving $10 million a year (there were many that said he didn't) and now I just feel that most comments are negative about Byrnes.

Just my opinion that Byrnes deserves $10 million a year over Gary.

[jeheinz72]

Good for Byrnes, I played Little League against him. Good guy and a fun player to watch (not that he's worth $10mm, don't get me wrong).

[Arlie Rahn]

Originally Posted by koohead

Odd move. Dbacks have lots of potential and appear to be moving towards giving their youth a chance to play. Young is the CF..that's a gimme. Just brought up Upton...so he's set in RF next year. Carlos Quentin is suppose to be in their OF, and Connor Jackson has all but lost his spot at 1B. So why sign a huge contract for Byrnes? why not take the money and go after some pitching to go with webb?

Quentin has really struggled and you really can't compete with a lineup of rookies. Outside of orlando Hudson, all the other starters next season were going to be Jackson, Drew, Reynolds, Young, Quentin, Upton and Montero. That's 6-7 guys under 25 years old. You need atleast 1-2 veteran players to be competitive. Now, the pitching staff is a different story - they could actually use some youth in the rotation (after Webb, RJ and Doug Davis).

Plus, if let Byrnes walk, you basically lose an asset who has basically been a .350 OBP, .820 OPS, 30 SB (80%) and very good fielder in all 3 OF spots for nothing. Instead, why not sign him to a reasonable 3-year deal and move Carlos Quentin and/or Chad Tracy for a young SP. I'd rather have Byrnes and a young SP with potential than Quentin and next year's Jeff Weaver in FA.

Dbacks are a fun team to watch though. the youth keeps them in games, and the hustle and energy is nice to see at the professional level.

I think they realized that they need some veteran leadership to be competitive while the kids develop. The team is just too streaky if you run out a starting 8 full of 19-24 year olds. Have a couple guys in their early 30s can stabilize this team. And, Byrnes has been pretty good in his two years at AZ.

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by darkhorse

Justin Upton is going to be a monster. Better than his big brother, who's gonna be a star in his own right.

Here are Upton's batting lines at the three levels he's played at in 2007.

A+    .341/.433/.540
AA    .309/.399/.556
ML    .412/.412/.882

Of his first seven big league hits, five are for extra bases, 3 doubles, 1 triple, and 1 home run. Not bad for a nineteen year old.

http://firstinning.com/players/Justin-Upton-a/

[CommishJoe]

Originally Posted by darkhorse

Here are Upton's batting lines at the three levels he's played at in 2007.

A+    .341/.433/.540
AA    .309/.399/.556
ML    .412/.412/.882

Of his first seven big league hits, five are for extra bases, 3 doubles, 1 triple, and 1 home run. Not bad for a nineteen year old.

http://firstinning.com/players/Justin-Upton-a/

WOW!! This kid should be fun to watch!

[Hammer755]

Originally Posted by Arlie Rahn

Plus, if let Byrnes walk, you basically lose an asset who has basically been a .350 OBP, .820 OPS, 30 SB (80%) and very good fielder in all 3 OF spots for nothing.

Except that's not really what Byrnes is. He's been that for 1/2 of one season, but the rest of his career he's been decidedly league-average.

[Skipaway]

I think the contract is about right for a league average OF. Byrnes played above average this year, and probably could have gotten an even bigger longer contract in the free agent market.

[MuertoDesagradecido]

Originally Posted by Arlie Rahn

Quentin has really struggled and you really can't compete with a lineup of rookies. Outside of orlando Hudson, all the other starters next season were going to be Jackson, Drew, Reynolds, Young, Quentin, Upton and Montero. That's 6-7 guys under 25 years old. You need atleast 1-2 veteran players to be competitive.

Please to be citing any actual evidence that this is the case.

[Arlie Rahn]

Originally Posted by MuertoDesagradecido

Please to be citing any actual evidence that this is the case.

Current starting lineup for next spring with no Byrnes (ages at start of next season):
C - Miguel Montero (24)
1B - Conner Jackson (25)
2B - Orlando Hudson (30)
3B - Mark Reynolds (25)
SS - Stephen Drew (25)
LF - Carlos Quentin (25)
CF - Chris B. Young (24)
RF - Justin Upton (20)

That's 7 of 8 guys at or under 25 years old. It makes sense (IMO) to move Quentin for a young starting pitcher and keep a 32-year old Byrnes if the DBacks want to be a playoff team next year. Plus, Tony Clark and Jeff Cirillo won't be coming back, so they would be losing two of the three remaining vets on their bench.

Except that's not really what Byrnes is. He's been that for 1/2 of one season, but the rest of his career he's been decidedly league-average.

In his DBacks career, he's had a .338 OBP, .826 OPS, 43 HR and 53 SB (87%) in 1000 ABs.

If you write off the 400 ABs he had in 2005 on three different teams as an aberration (not hard considering he switched leagues as well), you have the following numbers for the 1579 ABs since 2004:

.341 OBP, .480 SLG (.821 OPS), 70 SBs (88%) and 63 HR

In today's market, I'd say that's worth $10 mil per season. Pro-rated, that's roughly 25 HR, 25 SB (at almost 90% success) and an OPS at .821. Last season, only 3 players had 25 HR, 25 SB and an OPS at .800 or better - Alfonso Soriano, Eric Byrnes and Jimmy Rollins. I'd say that level of production is worth $30 mil over 3 seasons.

[MuertoDesagradecido]

Originally Posted by Arlie Rahn

Current starting lineup for next spring with no Byrnes (ages at start of next season):
C - Miguel Montero (24)
1B - Conner Jackson (25)
2B - Orlando Hudson (30)
3B - Mark Reynolds (25)
SS - Stephen Drew (25)
LF - Carlos Quentin (25)
CF - Chris B. Young (24)
RF - Justin Upton (20)

That's 7 of 8 guys at or under 25 years old. It makes sense (IMO) to move Quentin for a young starting pitcher and keep a 32-year old Byrnes if the DBacks want to be a playoff team next year. Plus, Tony Clark and Jeff Cirillo won't be coming back, so they would be losing two of the three remaining vets on their bench.

I meant the case that those guys simply lacked enough ageiness to be successful and adding older players would somehow improve them.

[Skipaway]

Originally Posted by Arlie Rahn

In today's market, I'd say that's worth $10 mil per season. Pro-rated, that's roughly 25 HR, 25 SB (at almost 90% success) and an OPS at .821. Last season, only 3 players had 25 HR, 25 SB and an OPS at .800 or better - Alfonso Soriano, Eric Byrnes and Jimmy Rollins. I'd say that level of production is worth $30 mil over 3 seasons.

He's worth $10m for three seasons, but not because of these cherry-picked combination of stats.

He's worth $10m because he's average, and that would be enough for $10m a year these days. If he can be relied on to continue his performance this year, he should have gotten a contract more like Johnny Damon's.

[Arlie Rahn]

Originally Posted by MuertoDesagradecido

I meant the case that those guys simply lacked enough ageiness to be successful and adding older players would somehow improve them.

I'd be hard-pressed to recall a playoff team in MLB to ever have 7 position player starters under the age of 26. The logic is that young players tend (on average) to be more streaky. Having a couple vets provides more stability and leadership. Even the young Oakland teams would always being in a Dave Justice, Jermaine Dye or Frank Thomas type to have atleast one established vet hitter.

As to Byrnes, league average seems a little underselling for Byrnes. Based on his last two seasons, there are not many LF that have his combination of OPS and speed success rate. That said, he would have easily gotten 4 years and $45 million in FA had he not been resigned. If Gary Matthews and Juan Pierre are any indication, Byrnes may have gotten over $50 million. So, getting him on a deal just for 3 years at a fair rate seems like a no-brainer for Arizona.

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by Arlie Rahn

I'd be hard-pressed to recall a playoff team in MLB to ever have 7 position player starters under the age of 26. The logic is that young players tend (on average) to be more streaky.

I doubt it has anything at all to do with "leadership" or being inconsistent, and is almost 100% attributable to it being exceedingly difficult to produce that many quality major league position players in such a short span.